The Question: How good will Derek Jeter be in 2010 and what can we expect beyond that?
...The offensive comedown that CHONE and ZiPS are expecting is largely BABIP-driven, much like his success in 2009 (.368 BABIP) and 2006 (.391 BABIP). BABIP and batting average are famously volatile, and as consistent as Jeter has been throughout the years, he is bound for ups and downs in both. So even their pessimism is not necessarily a comment on his aging process, so much as a regression to the mean following one of the best seasons of his career. In fact, Jeter’s 2008 (.300 AVG, .771 OPS) was even worse than the systems’ projections for 2010. He wasn’t necessarily a better hitter in 2009 than in 2008 — a lot of batting average is luck, even for a hitter of Jeter’s caliber, and he was luckier in 2009 than in 2008. That luck could have a big effect on his bottom line. If he hits like he did in 2008, the Yankees will be able to offer him a whole lot less money than if he hits like he did in 2009.
Whispers suggested that he wanted Alex Rodriguez-type money, but he won’t get that. More likely, he’ll get an offer of something like $20 million a year for something like 4 more years. His 3,000th career hit will almost certainly come in 2011, as if the Yankees needed another reason to keep him in pinstripes. But it’s unlikely that he’ll continue to be a very good offensive or defensive player for much longer after that. How unlikely? There have been exactly three shortstops in history who have produced a 100 OPS+ in a full season after turning 38: Honus Wagner, Luke Appling, and Ozzie Smith. Wagner just might be the greatest player ever, and Smith is the greatest defensive shortstop ever. Great as Jeter is, it will be a tall order to expect him to remain a great shortstop into his late 30’s.
The Forecast for 2010: In 2010, he’ll probably hit much as he has in 2007, 2008, and 2009 — a batting average somewhere over .300 and an OPS somewhere over .800, though perhaps not too far above either figure. He’ll walk enough to keep a very healthy leadoff OBP, and probably remain in the double-digits for both homers and steals. At the end of the year he’ll get a Godfather contract to keep him in New York forever. But just as his average could be .295 or .325, that contract could be for $60 million or $100 million. And the Yankees will have another payout to consider because 2009 is Mariano Rivera’s walk year, too. Jeter will have to prove his worth — not just to age gracefully, but to continue refusing to age.
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Instead, I curled up in the corner and cried for a few hours.
38 / 141 / 88
39 / 98 / 78
40 / 44 / 41
41 / 82 / 93
I would consider it a major advance for baseball front offices if the best deal he could get was 2x$15.
Ya know, I've heard this meme in several places. And I still don't understand it. 2008: 1258.2 innings, 347 assists, 220 putouts. 2009: 1260.2 innings, 340, 206. OK, he was involved in six more DPs. Perhaps a result of Teixeira both starting more DPs and holding on to throws at the back end that Giambi dropped the previous year. But how was 2009 a better defensive season than 2008?
You'll never devise a test for awesome.
Is your name Albert Pujols?
simple test.
If one were to cut him open, I imagine it would reveal more rings than his stated age.
What, we're relying on range factor? Start with this:
2008 Yankee Pitching: 1,140 K, 0.85 GB/FB
2009 Yankee Pitching: 1,260 K, 0.76 GB/FB
Think that maybe had something to do with the number of chances Jeter would have had over the two years?
Yes, that would be the way to make the argument. While Jeter didn't actually field more ground balls he fielded a greater percentage of those that he had the opportunity to field. That's fine, if true. But shouldn't this be framed as, "Despite the numbers Jeter had a better defensive season in 2009." Looks to me like the two seasons are virtually identical. Yet he was panned for one and got a gold glove for the other. Go figger.
Read 13 again.
Ya know, I've heard this meme in several places. And I still don't understand it. ... But how was 2009 a better defensive season than 2008?
The source of your confusion is the fact that those grueling workouts started after the 2007 season, not after 2008.
Sure, and you an do the same for pitchers by considering innings pitched, walks, strikeouts, and forgetting hits and the runs they created, as you do with the larger % of balls in Jeter's zone that he didn't convert into outs in 2008.
Perhaps you'd have a point if you said "Despite dumb numbers".
age OPS+
25 153
26 128
27 123
28 111
29 125
30 114
31 125
32 132
33 121
34 102
defying the effects of aging? Seriously? Yes, he had a good year in 2009, but even if you put that data point on the curve, Jeter's age curve looks remarkably normal to me. I'd say a 115 OPS+ is a good guess for his age 36 season, which is very valuable for a shortstop. But he sure isn't the poster child for doing surprisingly well in his 30s.
And yet you left it off, along with his age 24 season, just so that you could start with his career year and end with his career low to make it look like a relatively steady decline. It would make a lot more sense to throw out 1999 and talk about the remarkable consistency of his performance through a range of ages when most players would be expected to improve and then fall off. The reality is that aside from a couple of outlier seasons on either side, he never really peaked and he hasn't really declined.
But he sure isn't the poster child for doing surprisingly well in his 30s.
OK, so he's just the poster child for not falling off the cliff that everybody said he was on the edge of at age 30.
I agree with your conclusion that 'he never really peaked and he hasn't really declined.'. He could be a poor man's Hank Aaron through age 36; Jeter fans can hope he maintains Aaron's curve through age 40-42, making him the all time #2 MLB shortstop.
This didn't happen.
AROM said something dumb once, so "everybody" said Jeter was about to fall off a cliff? I'm not sure I see evidence of consensus.
Jeter's OPS+ through age 30 = 120
Jeter's OPS+ from age 31-35 = 123
That, and especially Jeter's MVP-caliber 2009 season, suggests he's somewhat decline resistant.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main