How much money do you think he goes for?

I thought that MLB had an agreement with NPB not to go after Japanese amateurs. Is that no longer valid?

Similarly, this further proves that MLB needs an International Draft. All of these international guys ALWAYS will go to one of five teams.

All of what international guys?

The posting system is what makes only the wealthiest/most ambitious MLB teams bid on players, but the posting system applies to what, two star players a year? As for Japanese free agents, I think most major league teams has brought one over by now. If the posting system didn't exist, why would 22-year-old Japanese prospects sign only with one of five teams? That doesn't happen with Dominicans or Koreans or even Cuban defectors.

All of these international guys ALWAYS will go to one of five teams.

Are you seriously going to make this argument just weeks after the A's set the signing bonus record for an international amateur?

Five teams...Seattle, Cubs and White Sox, Yankees and Red Sox...those the ones? Would figure the Mets and Dodgers to be in the mix too.

but the posting system applies to what, two star players a year?

And the track record isn't all that great. Nearly everyone that has been posted has ended up being massively overpaid.

he played for Nippon Oil in the national corporate baseball tournament? Is that like playing for your company softball team? If so, I would like to call up Boras and ask for representation. You should see my numbers from the spring!

Haven't the Sawx been scouting this guy intensely? My guess would be they're the frontrunners. Will this guy really be given an MLB contract right out of amateur competition?

All of these international guys ALWAYS will go to one of five teams.

The only way that makes sense is if when you say "international", you mean "NPB stars", and I don't know if forcing a 30-year-old NPB veteran to enter the amateur draft is necessarily a great idea.

There are a TON of players coming from Central and South America relatively cheaply. Alexei Ramirez was available cheaply to the highest bidder this winter. If the lower-budget teams weren't interested, that's their problem, not the system's.

All of these international guys ALWAYS will go to one of five teams.

Indeed. We can't continue to allow teams like the Rays this unfair advantage.

Geez we're not talking about the affordable, mediocre Japanese players like Iwamura, we're talking about the high-priced elite Japanese players who are only available by the posting system, like Kei Igawa.

Mediocre? How soon we forget Shinji Mori...

he played for Nippon Oil in the national corporate baseball tournament? Is that like playing for your company softball team? If so, I would like to call up Boras and ask for representation. You should see my numbers from the spring!

Um, no. JPL has only one level of minor leagues, roughly equivalent to US AAA. Corporate baseball somewhat fills in the gap for AA/A, with Japanese College ball being somewhat like A/Rookie level.

thanks, KJOK, I was just half-joking, I figured there was a real explanation. I've been trying to improve my knowledge of Japanese baseball, since I find it fascinating (particularly the interplay between corporate interests and baseball operations)

Corporate baseball somewhat fills in the gap for AA/A, with Japanese College ball being somewhat like A/Rookie level.

It wasn't all that long ago when company sponsored baseball teams here in the states were of pretty high quality. Here in Connecticut, a captain of one of my softball teams used to play ball for a local factory, and he likes to brag about the time he faced Moe Drabowski while Drabowski was a student at Trinity College. He claims there were quite a few major league quality players floating around in the factory leagues.

I have to imagine that the MLB teams will get a stern letter from King Bud warning them not to sign this guy. NPB is already in the process of trying to renegotiate a deal where it will be compensated in losing players via free agency, and I doubt Bud wants to deal with this gigantic can of worms as well. Under the NBP-MLB Agreement, MLB would need to get approval from the Commissioner of NBP before they could sign this player.

The NPB-MLB agreement is here: http://jpbpa.net/convention/2001_e.pdf

Actually, maybe not...

"If a U.S. Major League Club wishes to contact or engage a baseball player, professional or amateur, who...is currently playing...baseball in Japan, the U.S. Major League Club shall first request that the U.S Commissioner determine the status and availability of the Japanese Player in the same manner [as American Players - must communicate with the other commissioner, who must respond within 4 business days].

If the Japanese Player is not [on a NPB roster or list], the Japanese Commissioner shall notify the U.S. Commissioner and the U.S. Major League Club may then contact and engage the Japanese Player."

I guess this is another loophole. Just not a loophole Bud probably wants to see exploited.

I guess I have a hard time seeing how allowing someone who has no contract with anyone to choose what country they want to work in constitutes a loophole.

I guess I have a hard time seeing how allowing someone who has no contract with anyone to choose what country they want to work in constitutes a loophole.

Welcome to the world of monopolies. It's really no different than the amateur draft w/r/t controlling the destiny of people they have no formal relationship with.

All of these international guys ALWAYS will go to one of five teams.

Are you seriously going to make this argument just weeks after the A's set the signing bonus record for an international amateur?

Clearly the A's are one of those five teams, which makes me very happy. I'm guessing the others are the Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers.

I have to imagine that the MLB teams will get a stern letter from King Bud warning them not to sign this guy. NPB is already in the process of trying to renegotiate a deal where it will be compensated in losing players via free agency, and I doubt Bud wants to deal with this gigantic can of worms as well. Under the NBP-MLB Agreement, MLB would need to get approval from the Commissioner of NBP before they could sign this player.

I have no idea why you think Selig would be mad about teams signing amateur Japanese players

From what I've read, the Pirates like this guy a lot. Maybe they put some of their Alvarez money into him?

I have no idea why you think Selig would be mad about teams signing amateur Japanese players

Because it would damage their relationship with NPB. I imagine that that relationship has some value in real dollars.

Does anyone remember what the situation was with Makoto (Mac) Suzuki, whom I'm pretty sure signed with the Mariners before playing professionally in Japan?

Because it would damage their relationship with NPB. I imagine that that relationship has some value in real dollars.

It might have value. However, gutting NPB and having all the players for MLB would have more, not that MLB would ever admit to such a motive.

Behold, the Mac Suzuki story.

He never finished high school in Japan, so he was never even drafted by NPB before coming to America and signing with a minor-league team that had several other Japanese players. I think he was the only one of those players who ended up being purchased by a major-league team. When he couldn't find a job in MLB anymore, he had to be finally drafted at age 30 or whatever in order to play in Japan.

I don't get how the California League worked at the time, for that to happen. The teams were unaffiliated? In 1992? The same league that's just like the Carolina league or FSL right now? The San Bernardino Spirit could sign a player and then sell him to the highest bidder?

I have no idea why you think Selig would be mad about teams signing amateur Japanese players

It hurts MLBs leverage position in their current negotiations over the NPB-MLB agreement. Bud really wants to start laying groundwork for an MLB investment in NPB, and I speculate that he wants to lay groundwork for an international world series at the end of the year (although I doubt the owners will ever approve that one), while NBP is trying to get compensation for lost free agents. However, if top Japanese amateurs are able to go straight to the US, it could signal the beginning of the end for NPB, who just can't compete financially for the top talent, if they get that choice. While this won't open a massive floodgate right away due to Japanese cultural morays, it would eventually become more and more common as it becomes accepted. Keeping Japanese amateurs in Japan would become priority #1 for NBP.

That leaves Bud in a hard spot. If he doesn't make this concession, NBP probably walks away from the table completely (it's not like the agreement has an expiration date), it seriously strains the relationship between MLB and NBP, and Bud can't accomplish what he wants to accomplish. If he does make the concession, it pisses off the owners (although on the other hand it means he'll probably get a better deal in respect of the rest of the NBP agreement).

I suspect we'll see more of this in the next few days. I don't doubt that NBP will reject this request and send Selig a friendly letter asking that he not allow the teams to sign this player, and then he'll send out an angry letter to the teams (is there any other kind of Bud Selig correspondence?). That cuts the problem off at the pass, but would just be a band-aid for the time being. Realistically, if this kid took MLB to court in the US, he'd probably win, notwithstanding any agreement that MLB and NBP have in place, but the Japanese don't tend to be nearly as litigious about this type of thing as Americans.

I thought the story with Mac Suzuki was that he went undrafted in NBP, initially. I guess it's possible that the reports are inaccurate and this isn't the first time this has happened.

Edit - On Suzuki, see Tailor. I don't know whether this was the case with Salinas at the time, but until very recently, the lower minors had a number of unaffiliated teams in the same leagues as the affiliated teams. I remember growing up that there were a number of unaffiliated teams in the FSL that are no longer there.

It might have value. However, gutting NPB and having all the players for MLB would have more, not that MLB would ever admit to such a motive.

No it wouldn't. You still want baseball to stay popular in Japan. Japanese people don't root for Ichiro only because he was Japanese. He was a huge star in Japan before he came to the majors. Had he started out in MLB and never played in Japan, I doubt that MLB becomes nearly as popular in Japan as it is now, and the Japanese TV contract is potentially a huge revenue stream for MLB.

MLB isn't going to gain market share in the US. They want to stay as friendly as possible with all other international baseball organizations.

indy: yeah, cal and fsl had indy teams back then, as did some lower leagues. the miami miracle (fsl) even participated in the ammy draft once or twice, which amazes me (got mike lansing). as a general rule, full season indy teams stunk, but some of the short season teams were really good (slc trappers in the pioneer frequently were dominant).

some japanese amateurs have signed w/ mlb teams currently, but they're guys who were passed over in the draft (ex: atl - hamaoka, shimabukuro).

i don't imagine mlb will allow the agreement to be broken w/ this signing.

I suspect he'll sign with a MLB team, and then Bud will give them a stern talking to with no real consequences. That team will benefit, and the teams that play by the unwritten rules will suffer like the teams that obey the orders to not go over slot money in the draft.

However, if top Japanese amateurs are able to go straight to the US, it could signal the beginning of the end for NPB, who just can't compete financially for the top talent, if they get that choice. While this won't open a massive floodgate right away due to Japanese cultural morays, it would eventually become more and more common as it becomes accepted. Keeping Japanese amateurs in Japan would become priority #1 for NBP.

That leaves Bud in a hard spot.

Huh? MLB being the only option for Japanese baseball fans is Bud Selig's dream, not a hard spot

some japanese amateurs have signed w/ mlb teams currently, but they're guys who were passed over in the draft (ex: atl - hamaoka, shimabukuro).

I think one of those ATL guys, whichever one is a catcher, wasn't passed over in the Japanese draft but was ineligible for it since his high school did not have a baseball team.

forgot about that - that's ryohei shimabukuro. of course, he sucks anyway (so did the other guy i mentioned - they have more).

a breakdown of the agreement could lead to existing contracts not being respected by the two associations. that is not in mlb's best interest - they crave certainty.