JP just saved himself a whole bunch of cash, which is as good as money.

[edit]

The Denver Post is reporting the deal will have a team option for the seventh year.

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_8022077

In a deal first reported in The Denver Post, the Rockies and Tulowitzki have agreed to the parameters of a six-year, $30 million contract with a club option for a seventh season, the largest given a big leaguer with less than two years' experience.... If the club option is exercised, Tulowitzki would remain with the Rockies through 2014, casting him as the future face of the franchise.

They were burned with a super long term contract once before, but I'd rather have a shortstop for $30m than a first baseman for $170m or however much Helton got.

They were burned with a super long term contract once before, but I'd rather have a shortstop for $30m than a first baseman for $170m or however much Helton got.

Right, it's impossible to be burned by a 6/30 contract, especially one as backloaded as this will surely be.

The downside for the Rockies is basically non-existent - wasting maybe $20M in 2012 and 2013 - while the upside is incredible. And Tulowitzki is now set for life. Everyone wins.

I'd like to see the Dbacks begin locking up their young players to similar deals pretty soon.

This signing could spark a trend, especially with the rash of trading pre-FA players.

I'd like to see the Dbacks begin locking up their young players to similar deals pretty soon.

It would help expedite things if the DBacks players actually performed up to expectations the way Tulo did.

Webb did and he got his first "set for life" deal.

Right, it's impossible to be burned by a 6/30 contract, especially one as backloaded as this will surely be.

I would think it is rather easy to get burned by a backloaded contract not impossible.

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If Troy turns into a pumpkin how are they going to unload this contract 3 years from now? Sure it isn't 18 million a year or anything like that but they would still have to either pay Troy in full or pay part of his contract or take another contract to get rid of him if he doesn't pan out. It isn't a great risk like the Tigers wanting to sign Juan Gonzalez long term or LA with Brown but it is still a risk.

Everybody was praising Beane for locking up his youth long term, that is until Long turned into a pumpkin.

I like this move, but there is some downside for the Rockies here.

The Royals certainly regret the similar contract they signed with Berroa.

Wow, is this ever a steal.

If Troy turns into a pumpkin how are they going to unload this contract 3 years from now?

Well, they won't be able to unload it, but even if looks bad in 2012, they're still coming out ahead over the life of the contract. Of course that's more a function of the reserve clause than of this particular deal.

Well, they won't be able to unload it, but even if looks bad in 2012, they're still coming out ahead over the life of the contract. Of course that's more a function of the reserve clause than of this particular deal.

How are they coming out ahead if it looks bad in 2012? If it looks bad in 2012 then that means he wasn't performing real well in 2011 or 2010. So basically you have him sign a contract which overpays him for 2008 and 2009 a period in which he has no leverage whatsoever.

So basically you have him sign a contract which overpays him for 2008 and 2009 a period in which he has no leverage whatsoever.

I think there is a non-negligible long-term cost to exerting leverage (see: Littlefield, David and everyone of his Pirate contract negotiations). If you run the good players over the coals over every last dime, it costs in terms of organizational good will. ANY guaranteed contract has a downside... I think the Rockies have properly managed the risk here with a huge upside of Tulo being UNDER cost at the end of the deal and the relatively small likelihood that he'll be significantly overpaid in the short term.

Sure it isn't 18 million a year or anything like that but they would still have to either pay Troy in full or pay part of his contract or take another contract to get rid of him if he doesn't pan out.

Right. But this is in 2010, at the earliest. As long as inflation keeps its pace, this is going to be a very minor factor in the Rockies' payroll.

Yes, I'm overstating the case - obviously paying money for a guy who doesn't contribute is bad - but the badness is very minor, because it's been put off into the future, and salary inflation will cut pretty deeply into it.

EDIT: And, of course, Tulowitzki's reasonable upside is Best SS in Baseball. So one weighs the upside and the downside. Even if we disagree marginally on the downside risk, we all agree that the upside massively outweighs it, right?

They were burned with a super long term contract once before

I thought you meant Hampton till I read the rest of the sentence. And then I wondered "What about Neagle?".

This signing could spark a trend, especially with the rash of trading pre-FA players.

The Rays are already trying to lock up Shields long-term, probably 5-6 years (though I expect at least one year would be a team option). They've tried the past two offseasons with Kazmir but he hasn't been interested to this point.

Even if we disagree marginally on the downside risk, we all agree that the upside massively outweighs it, right?

Yes of course the upside can massively outweigh the bad side. But that would still be correct even without this 6 year contract.

What is the most a 4th year player has ever asked for? A 5th year player, a 6th year player? What is the most that a 4th year has ever gotten in arb? A 5th year player, a 6th year player?

This contract to me seems like one of those gamblers who bets the pass and don't pass line at the same time.

This is likely a good deal. There's some downside but it doesn't appear to be huge. I'm assuming it looks something like 1/1/3/5/8/12 with the option (14?). That's still only through his age 29 season even with the option. I'd have waited a year -- which I don't think significantly increases the price barring an MVP -- to get a better sense of his true hitting skill. But really, the worst-case scenario (barring major injury) looks like an average-hitting SS with an above-average glove (or an above-average hitter with an average SS glove) and that's going to cost something close to that money over 6 years even if you let him go through arb every year anyway.

So I think the only substantial risk in this deal is major injury.

Now the flipside is how well can the Rox make out on this contract. That depends largely on how you think he'll develop as a hitter. Age 22 with a 108 OPS+ is a nice starting point -- a little better than Jeter, much better than Rollins and Tejada, let's call it similar to Jose Reyes (who was good at 20 followed by injury-plagued, bad years). For his prime, he might well be posting 115-120 or better with good defense. Who knows where arb will be then, but 4/8/12 for that player would seem to be a minimum and his FA would cost you $16 I'd think ... so that's $10 M in savings.

Good deal for the Rox and Tulo is set for life.

Where the Rox, or somebody, gets screwed is on that first big FA contract for Tulo. :-)

It would help expedite things if the DBacks players actually performed up to expectations the way Tulo did.

Or you might get them cheap if you wrapped them up now. :-)

Anyway, straight out of the Beane playbook -- not that he invented arb buyouts but he used them more than anybody I can think of and rarely made a mistake (T Long but that was a tiny contract anyway) -- and yes, he also got lucky especially on pitcher health. Shapiro has done this with his stars lately. As implied earlier, you just have to make sure you generally do this with the Swishers of the world, not the Berroas.

JP just saved himself a whole bunch of cash, which is as good as money

Curious here gents... I see Ricciardi's selection of Ricky Romero before Tulowitzki's being referenced often as though Ricciardi/Blue Jays blew that one. My question being, my best memeory of that draft year (the Baseball America, Prospectus, etc.) never had the Jays considering even drafting Tulowitzki (especially considering they'd drafted shortstops each of the two years prior in the first round). So what's the reference here. Thanks.

but 4/8/12 for that player would seem to be a minimum and his FA would cost you $16 I'd think ... so that's $10 M in savings

Except to get that one year of free agency the Rox have to give Troy at least a 6 year deal or more.

So yes if Troy turns into a very good SS this is a great deal because the Rox can get two years of his free agency life without having to then buy his pos-30 years at a high premium.

Almost any deal out there looks great if the player plays great.

Yeah, but it's pretty hard for it to be a bad deal. Five million a year gets you David Eckstein right now. Five years down the road it will get you something like the deluxe version of Cesar Izturis, whatever that may be.

if Troy turns into a very good SS

Troy Tulowitzki is a very good shortstop. Maybe this is where there's a disconnect. His VORP of 38 was 5th among NL shortstops, and either he or Omar Vizquel deserved the Gold Glove.

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The way I've heard it, many in Toronto's front office (including LaCava and Law) wanted Tulo and were lobbying for him. JP overruled them on draft day and took Romero. Not sure what JP's reasons for that were (maybe positional scarcity?). From what I've heard/read, that JP pick has been rather soundly ridiculed in baseball circles more or less since the moment Romero's name was called out.

It would help expedite things if the DBacks players actually performed up to expectations the way Tulo did.
Or you might get them cheap if you wrapped them up now. :-)

Exactomundo.

Troy Tulowitzki is a very good shortstop. Maybe this is where there's a disconnect. His VORP of 38 was 5th among NL shortstops, and either he or Omar Vizquel deserved the Gold Glove

Troy has one season under his belt, and has played about 300 professional games in his life. Sure there might be more of the same or better to come but that isn't a certainty.

Yeah, but it's pretty hard for it to be a bad deal. Five million a year gets you David Eckstein right now. Five years down the road it will get you something like the deluxe version of Cesar Izturis, whatever that may be.


Except 5 years down the road Troy won't be getting 5 million dollars. He'll probably be getting something like 10 million dollars.


I'm not saying that this is a bad contract, like others have said a 30 million dollar contract has to have a lot of things go very wrong to be a very bad contract. If anything I am saying that it is simply an unnecessary contract. The Rox don't need to do this right now. They could wait a year, they might even be able to wait two years. Doing it now simply increases their risks.

I'm not saying that this is a bad contract, like others have said a 30 million dollar contract has to have a lot of things go very wrong to be a very bad contract. If anything I am saying that it is simply an unnecessary contract. The Rox don't need to do this right now. They could wait a year, they might even be able to wait two years. Doing it now simply increases their risks.

Well, except if he has as good a season in 2008 as he had in 2007, he won't be signing for $30 million - especially if pay goes up leaguewide again. The risk isn't all on the side of the Rockies here - if 2007 wasn't a fluke, even waiting one season to sign a long contract is going to cost Tulowitzki a lot of money. It's worth it to him, because this contract would give him lifetime financial security, even if there is a good chance he's costing himself many millions of dollars by not waiting.

It would help expedite things if the DBacks players actually performed up to expectations the way Tulo did.
Or you might get them cheap if you wrapped them up now. :-)


Exactomundo.

Whoever hits this year gets locked up before the start of next year. The guys that don't hit, don't get locked up. Pretty simple.

You, Levski sir are correct sir. As per scouting diva confidant Bob Elliot:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Columnists/Elliott/2007/10/23/4598636-sun.html

Anyway, straight out of the Beane playbook -- not that he invented arb buyouts but he used them more than anybody I can think of and rarely made a mistake (T Long but that was a tiny contract anyway) -- and yes, he also got lucky especially on pitcher health. Shapiro has done this with his stars lately.

Shapiro learned this technique from John Hart, who signed several of the mid-90s Indians to multi-year deals to buy out their arbitration years.

I guess I really don't get long-term deals for pre-FA players. I don't think its a terrible idea, but I don't get why its such a great thing. These guys are under reserve already. You're not buying them off from leaving for another team. Their salaries are going to be artificially depressed anyway by not having competition for his services. Arb eligible, pre FA players can make good salaries, but they are still lower than FA salaries, and are still quite a bargain generally.

So basically there seem to be two upsides. One is that you save yourself from arbitration. I guess I understand the need to avoid that, but teams generally find a way to come to terms before arbitration. And the salaries of arbitration players are generally not exorbitant. And the best thing is they are only one year contracts.

Two is that you may get a bargain, that is if Tulowitski is the best player in baseball in year three or four, he will be wildly underpaid. He will be underpaid compared to free agent shortstops, but would he be underpaid compared to arbitration eligible shortstops? I would think you're only saving yourself a few million, and that's only IF he turns into (or maintains) his status as an elite shortstop. So to me, the upside of locking up such a player seems pretty marginal.

The downside, on the other hand, is that you have committed several millions of dollars to a player. So if Troy has a major injury and is never the same player, you're shelling our $30 million for nothing. The chance of this I suppose is not that great, but it is there.

Maybe I'm just feeling burned by the Angel Berroa deal, but I've thought for awhile that the idea of locking of pre-FA players has very little upside, and much more downside. If you're going to do it, Tulowitski for $30 million seems sensible, but I just don't like the practice in general. I tend to favor the flexibility of short term contracts.

Well, except if he has as good a season in 2008 as he had in 2007, he won't be signing for $30 million - especially if pay goes up leaguewide again

Okay so what does it go up too? 5 year 30 million? The risk of him getting more expensive is not all that great. The Rox are not going to get punished if Troy puts in a great performance year in year out for the next 5 years. Yeah he might cost 40 million of 20 million for those 5 years but he'll probably be worth 60 million. But the risk of his backloaded contract not being worth it means more. Right now the Rox could pay him 500 to 700K the next two years, then it would probably go up to somewhere in the 6 to 12 million range for his arb years and at anytime the Rox could say forget it. Now they can't so they are assuming almost all of the risks for failure in this contract when they don't really need to.

AG1F, your 2nd point seems fairly exaggerated. He doesn't have to be the best player in baseball for this to be a good deal. This is a good deal if he is just a good shortstop. Mediocre starting pitchers now get $10m/year. What is a good Shortstop going to get in 6 years? I wouldn't be shocked if the rate is $15m.

I guess I really don't get long-term deals for pre-FA players. I don't think its a terrible idea, but I don't get why its such a great thing.

But this contract includes at least one year of post free agency, and apparently an option also. They are buying out what is likely to be his two best seasons after they would no longer have controlled his rights. If he stays at the level he played at in 2007, that is worth a ton of cash. If he improves it's worth even more. Even if 2007 was his best season, so long as he doesn't decline precipitously the Rockies should do okay on the deal. They are basically gambling that he is for real, and that he won't have such a severe injury that his productivity is cut short. In terms of the former, he was a far better prospect than Angel Berroa - there is a lot of reason to think that he is for real. In terms of the latter - well, that is the risk that is motivating Tulowitzki to give up a good chance at a lot more money.

I agree that it doesn't make sense for every player. But if someone is a true blue chip prospect, and then immediately shows that the majors are not a problem for him, then it can make sense for both sides.

Okay so what does it go up too? 5 year 30 million? The risk of him getting more expensive is not all that great.

I disagree. They aren't just buying out his arbitration years - they are buying out his first season of free agency, apparently with an option year for the second season. Tulowitzki is much less likely to give up those years without seeking the open market if he has another season like 2007. The Rockies are gambling that he is as good as he looked in 2007, and are making sure that they control what is likely to be the most productive years post FA. And yes, there is some risk for the Rockies, as well as for Tulowitzki. Undoubtedly the Rockies would prefer each season be an option, but why would Tulowitzki agree to that? Instead, the Rockies are gambling the relatively slight chance of it turning out to be a very bad contract against the chance of them getting either a bit of a bargain or an incredible bargain, depending on how Troy develops.

I see this as a reasonable gamble for the Rockies. If Troy develops into a star the only way the Rockies would be able to afford him would be to commit more years and cash to one player entering his 30s than they would want to. This way they get basically all of his best years at a price that won't break them even if it turns bad, and gives them years to build around him.

Why would Troy be unlikely to do this? Virtually all contracts in which a team buys out a players arb-eligible years also buys one year of free agency.

Undoubtedly the Rockies would prefer each season be an option, but why would Tulowitzki agree to that?

Because he has no choice in the matter. For the next 5 years every year is an option year. Secondly that first year of free agency isn't going to be the 12 million or 14 million or whatever it says on the contract. That first years is actually going to be that years salary plus whatever over and above the Rox spent on Troy in the 5 previous seasons.

I agree that it doesn't make sense for every player. But if someone is a true blue chip prospect, and then immediately shows that the majors are not a problem for him, then it can make sense for both sides

Akrasian meet Eric Hinske and Chris Singleton.

I like the first one better.

Because he has no choice in the matter. For the next 5 years every year is an option year.

Yes, but again he's not just signing for the next 5 years - he's signing for the next six, PLUS giving them an option year to boot. THAT is what the Rockies gain by guaranteeing him this money. And what they give up is the ability to cut him if he either is a fluke (unlikely) or injures himself such that he can't perform at a high level (more likely, but still unlikely).

Akrasian meet Eric Hinske and Chris Singleton.


You're not seriously comparing Hinske and Singleton as prospects to Tulowitzki, I hope. Singleton didn't even make it to the majors until he was 26. Hinske was 24, and was a good but not great prospect prior to making it to the majors. He also was a poor fielding 3b, instead of a great fielding shortstop, once he made it to the majors. Those two players weren't in the same zip code as Tulowitzki as prospects, making their rookie seasons much more likely to be flukes (especially Singleton, of course).

Ok fine, Akrasian meet Delino Deshields and Brent Gates.

This seems like one year too early to me. I think the extra year of information for the Rockies is worth the risk that he shifts the goalpost that much further.

Except to get that one year of free agency the Rox have to give Troy at least a 6 year deal or more.

So yes if Troy turns into a very good SS this is a great deal because the Rox can get two years of his free agency life without having to then buy his pos-30 years at a high premium.

Almost any deal out there looks great if the player plays great.

Lots of teams wish that were true, but it's not. A lot of arb buyouts come after the player has their 'breakout' year and they're priced as though that player is going to continue at that level of production (or improve) when it's most likely their upside. See Pat Burrell. In those instances, the team at best breaks even (unless inflation goes nuts).

But you have to assess deals based on high side and low side. What do they save if he hits a realistic upside; what do they lose if he hits a realistic downside; what are the chances of those? There's a pretty good chance the Rox make out like bandits on this. Tulowitzki's bat and/or glove would have to crater to make him less than an average SS, yet this deal is priced at about what an average SS would get. Remember, Jack Wilson got nearly $2 M in arb back in 2004. Remember Cabrera got, what, $8 M in FA and Lugo got $9 M just a couple years ago. Furcal, a top SS, got $13.

An average SS today is going to end up making something in the range of 3/6/9 in his arb years ... add another couple years and that might be closing in on 4/7/10. Average SS appears to be Tulowitzki's downside, so the Rox have traded long-term contract risk for getting the guy at the price he'll likely command if he declines. That's a good contract.

That's why I said the only substantial risk here appears to be major injury risk.

Now, as I said, I agree they could wait a year. The only way that "costs" them is if he goes nuts with the bat ... in which case they're probably in the Pat Burrell scenario and should pass on signing him long-term at that time because they'll be overpaying.

I guess I really don't get long-term deals for pre-FA players. I don't think its a terrible idea, but I don't get why its such a great thing. These guys are under reserve already. You're not buying them off from leaving for another team. Their salaries are going to be artificially depressed anyway by not having competition for his services. Arb eligible, pre FA players can make good salaries, but they are still lower than FA salaries, and are still quite a bargain generally.

You're right to question long-term arb buyouts as many are bad deals. Of course, many are good deals. And you just have to assess them given what you know at the time. The success of the A's wasn't just built around Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Chavez, Tejada, Giambi ... but also that those guys were signed to what turned out to be great arb buyout contracts that were probably saving the A's on the order of $10 M a year (and given their payroll in those days was probably around $40-50 ...)

As a couple folks have said, I think you're seriously underpricing what Tulo (or an average SS) will get in arb in a couple years time.

Now let's poke around for similar deals. Reyes got 3 arb years and an FA year bought out for $23.25 (plus an $11 M option). That's an awesome deal and better than this one. Peralta got a similar sort of deal except 5 years with an option for $13 M with a $7 M option. Peralta seems a good bit worse than Tulo (esp with the glove) but still that's probably a better deal (Shapiro's been a master ... oh yeah, good point on Hart a few posts back). Jimmy Rollins somehow signed away a number of FA years at a lower price than Cabrera -- should fire his agent. The Pirates got 3 arb years and an FA year from Wilson for about $15.5 M -- Tulo is much better than Wilson and, with inflation, I'm sure his contract will beat that one.

So, I have to admit, Tulo's contract isn't as good as I thought. It will depend on how quickly salary inflation -- which has not (yet) been as extreme as folks seem to think -- hits the arb salaries. I still think average SS are going to end up in the 3/5/8 to 3/6/9 range and, in 2012 or whatever, FA average SS will be hitting $12 easily and that makes this a good contract.

If the bad scenario you want to evoke is that Tulowitzki turns into a slick fielding shortstop version of Deshields - I think the Rockies would not be traumatized by that.

But you know, the point isn't that there is zero possibility of this contract not working out for the Rockies. If there was zero chance of Tulowitzki not being worth the contract, he would have to be stupid to sign it and give up (possibly) two years of free agency. The point is that the chances of the contract being really bad for the Rockies is small, and there is a very real chance that the Rockies will end up getting two more years of a productive Tulowitzki than they otherwise would - with a decent chance of those years being a bargain (especially once you factor in that they won't have to be guaranteeing a bunch of years in Tulowitzki's 30s to get those two free agent years). For the chance at that, they are risking that something happens to Tulowitzki making him overpaid going forward. The Rockies are gambling that they will overspend relatively little of the money they have to spend, versus possibly getting two additional good years out of Tulowitzki without having to commit to him until his mid 30s. Tulowitzki is risking a much bigger payout, but guaranteeing himself enough money that if he invests wisely he and his family are secure for the rest of his life.

You're right to question long-term arb buyouts as many are bad deals. Of course, many are good deals.

Correct. I should have been more clear that I think buying out pre-FA years in general is overrated, although this one is one of the better deals I've seen, particularly since it buys out a FA year, and it makes sense for the Rox to do this.

Akrasian,
Again though the point isn't that the Rox could get badly burned but that they are taking an unnecessary risk by signing him now. They have 2 more seasons of total control and 3 more seasons arbitration on Troy. They could sit on him for 2 more seasons give 500 k a year and then come to the table with many of the unknowns of today known then. The next two seasons he could put up a 90 to 95 OPS+ with good defense and then they can pay him accordingly. He could be a 110 OPS+ with great defense and then simply play the arbitration game. IF Troy turns out to be good then the Rox are not really saving any money during those 5 seasons. So then it comes down to how much money is riding on that 6th season and how much money is in that option year. I'm betting that the option year has a boatload of money in it, why else would Troy agree to it? If it turns out that the 6th year is 12 to 14 million then they are not really saving all that much money and probably could have saved a similar amount by simply waiting a seasons or two.

IF Troy turns into DD then there is no reason to hand him a year deal.

The less risk there is for the Rockies, the less reason Tulowitzki has to sign away ANY years of free agency, much less two including the option year. Also, him getting half a million more per season for the next two years is not very significant for the Rockies, but is huge to him. By waiting the Rockies would have bypassed on the chance to give him a little bit extra for the next few seasons to get a big discount at the end of the contract, AND if Tulowitzki plays as well as he did this past season then there'd be a very good chance that he would no longer want to sign away any of his free agency.

For $30 million (much of which they would have to spend anyway, either on Tulowitzki or on another shortstop) they are making sure they can have his age 28 and 29 seasons, without having to commit to his age 30 season or beyond (as they would have to if he were to go free agent).

I think the misunderstanding is that you're looking at it just as money - I think the huge advantage for the Rockies is that they can get Tulowitzki's first two free agent seasons without having to commit to his declining years. That's potentially a huge competitive advantage for the Rockies. Even if the option year is at market rates they still come out ahead, since they are not having to guarantee the typical decline years, which is normally the case for free agent contracts.

No I already get that and I already mentioned that above.

What changes by waiting one year? Why wouldn't Troy make a deal after next season or the season after that? Virtually every single non free agent player offered one of these kinds of deals has taken it. Nobody has yet offered a player with one seasons worth of experience one of these deals.

Correct. I should have been more clear that I think buying out pre-FA years in general is overrated, although this one is one of the better deals I've seen, particularly since it buys out a FA year, and it makes sense for the Rox to do this.

I think you'll find that if you sign a pre-FA player to a series of one year deals, you'll spend about twice as much. (Now, buying out pre-arb years, as the Rockies did here, is less helpful.) You're really underestimating arbitration-set salaries.

I think you'll find that if you sign a pre-FA player to a series of one year deals, you'll spend about twice as much. (Now, buying out pre-arb years, as the Rockies did here, is less helpful.) You're really underestimating arbitration-set salaries.


Most of these pre-FA salaries get signed somewhere between after the 2nd seasons and after the third season. You honestly believe that some player is going to to surrender half his pay when he is all set to go to arbitration?

If a player is heading into arbtration and he can get 8 million you are saying he will accept 4 million that year. So basically that player would get 8 to 9 million over two seasons guaranteed instead of 8 million guranteed with just one arbitration season. He then heads into his 5th season and he can get at least 6.4 million by heading to arbitration so now he has made about 15 to 20 million for just two seasons but by getting the guaranteed money he is at 8 million. 6 year he could around the same money or more but with guaranteed money he is probably looking at significantly less (half by your estimate). I don't see that happening. If the bargain was that steep players wouldn't take it. Half is way too high. A player would be better of going to arbitration and making the big bucks in that one arbitration case and risking not getting paid the next two years then it would be to take the deal.

Another factor here is the Rockies are in a delicate position. Fans have stayed away, skeptical of their "GenR" approach. Then came the hot streak and the playoff run, and the chance to keep some of those fans.

It probably isn't feasible to sign Holliday long term, but they now have Tulo through his prime. Combined with the on-field upside/downside arguments Walt and MCoA are making, this seems like a pretty good move.

It probably isn't feasible to sign Holliday long term, but they now have Tulo through his prime.

They always had Troy signed through his prime.

Most of these pre-FA salaries get signed somewhere between after the 2nd seasons and after the third season. You honestly believe that some player is going to to surrender half his pay when he is all set to go to arbitration?

If a player is heading into arbtration and he can get 8 million you are saying he will accept 4 million that year.

No, I'm not. I'm talking about over the life of the deal, not in one year. Tulowitzki isn't accepting 4 million; he's accepting 30 million. I'm saying that if he continues to play well, and he signed a series of one-year deals, he could expect to make closer to 60 million over the life of this deal. But it's prudent for him to be risk averse, because if he flops or gets hurt, maybe he gets 5 or 10 million total. A team can better afford to gamble because it has a portfolio of players to spread the risk around.

No, I'm not. I'm talking about over the life of the deal, not in one year. Tulowitzki isn't accepting 4 million; he's accepting 30 million. I'm saying that if he continues to play well, and he signed a series of one-year deals, he could expect to make closer to 60 million over the life of this deal. But it's prudent for him to be risk averse, because if he flops or gets hurt, maybe he gets 5 or 10 million total. A team can better afford to gamble because it has a portfolio of players to spread the risk around.


Yes I know you are and half still doesn't make sense.

Next year Troy gets 500k, the third year 600k. Now they head to arbitration he gets 8 million dollars. 5th year he gets 10 million dollors. 6th year he gets 12 million dollars. That is reasonable to expect and that isn't 60 million dollars or do you expect Troy to get 30 million dollars in his free agent year?

The only way half makes sense is if he gets something like 11 million, 14 million, 17 million, and then 18 million by signing one year deals. I don't see that happening.

What changes by waiting one year? Why wouldn't Troy make a deal after next season or the season after that?

Because he's willing to give up multiple years of free agency in exchange for the certainty of the big payday.

Decrease the risk of his achieving the big payday anyway, and he has much less reason to give up any free agent years.

If the Rockies don't sign him now, and he has another big season, then the chances of his getting big money have increased very significantly - so it will take much more money to buy him out of two free agent years, if he's even willing to give them up at all.

Right now the Rockies have him and can pay him under $1 million total over the next two seasons. If something happens to him during that time, his financial future is at risk. If they wait one year to lock him up, there is less reason for him to give up free agency. Wait two seasons, and there is virtually no reason for him to give up free agency, assuming he plays well during those two seasons.

The additional certainty the Rockies would get by waiting a year cuts both ways, after all - Tulowitzki is only willing to give up two years of free agency because there is some risk of him not getting the big payday. Reduce the risk, as you advocate, and there is less reason for Tulowitzki to sign and give up two years of free agency.

Virtually every single non free agent player offered one of these kinds of deals has taken it.

Have they? We've heard about the ones who've accepted such offers - we have no information about any refusals to take such offers. And most of the ones that have been accepted have not been given to players with as low a risk as Tulowitzki has in the first place - for instance, you can throw out every pitcher contract as not being relevant to Tulowitzki's situation.

If every player were willing to take such a deal after their second or third full season, why don't more players sign such deals and give up a year or two of free agency? Seems to me that such deals are the exception, not the rule - even if you only include players who are established regulars from very early in their careers.

If every player were willing to take such a deal after their second or third full season, why don't more players sign such deals and give up a year or two of free agency?

Because for most players it isn't worth it for the team to offer one. The Rox after one season are betting that Troy is one of those players that it is worth it.

The additional certainty the Rockies would get by waiting a year cuts both ways, after all - Tulowitzki is only willing to give up two years of free agency because there is some risk of him not getting the big payday. Reduce the risk, as you advocate, and there is less reason for Tulowitzki to sign and give up two years of free agency.



If the likelihood of the money increasing by as much as you think it is is in fact correct then Troy has little reason to sign this contract.

Again I'm willing to bet that those two free agent years are going to be pretty darn high compared to the rest of the contract.

You act like that by simply waiting one year Troy is going to put a Honus Wagner/ARod like season and his pay is going to double.

are the rockies still paying Hampton or are they done with that finally.

You act like that by simply waiting one year Troy is going to put a Honus Wagner/ARod like season and his pay is going to double.

No, I'm acting like Troy is somewhat risk averse, but not totally so. Like most/all athletes, he has a competitive nature. Despite that, he's willing right now to sign an extension that in effect gives up two free agent seasons. What makes you so confident he would still be willing to do so if he has another outstanding season in 2008? At that time he would have a history of being a big star in high school, a big star in college, very successful in his brief career in the minors, and two successful major league seasons - that is, no history of failure, and not very far off from getting arbitration money. He would have much less reason to give up two years of free agency - and he and his agent would know it.

How many players with such a history of success have signed contracts to give up their two most desirable years of free agency? David Wright is the only one I can think of off the top of my head - and his contract was a guaranteed $55 million, signed a couple of years back, not $30 million signed in 2008.

The next two seasons he could put up a 90 to 95 OPS+ with good defense and then they can pay him accordingly. He could be a 110 OPS+ with great defense and then simply play the arbitration game. IF Troy turns out to be good then the Rox are not really saving any money during those 5 seasons.

This is where I think you're dead wrong. He is not being paid like a SS who puts up a 110 OPS+. He's being paid like an average SS. A 95 OPS+ for a SS is still above-average offense from a SS and his glove will, presumably, still be above-average. This is only a bad deal if he turns into Adam Everett or something.

I'm saying that if he continues to play well, and he signed a series of one-year deals, he could expect to make closer to 60 million over the life of this deal

I was gonna call David an idiot ... but arb salaries have gone up a good bit and it really all depends on how those FA years would end up being priced. I think David's wrong in general (it's more like 25% discount, not 50%) but for this particular deal, it may come out pretty close.

But 6/$60 would require Tulo to get about $40 M for 3 years of arb and $20 M for 1 years of FA. (I'm not clear whether David was or wasn't including the option year) I seriously doubt that's the expected outcome. If you take the three highest player-submitted arb values this year -- Bedard, K-Rod and Howard -- you get $30.5 M (team offers $23 M, actual salaries will be between those two). So yeah, if Tulowitzki hits 50 HR, he might have a shot at making that kinda money during his arb years. Arb salaries don't inflate that quickly and aren't much of a mystery to players or teams. Now, if mediocre FA SS cost $30 M per in whatever far-off year that is, then Tulo still wouldn't be expected to make $60 M over those 4 years. ($60 M over 5 years is more plausible but bloody unlikely).

Cano just asked for $4.5 M ($3.2). Atkins $4.6/$4.1. B Phillips $4.2/$2.7. Hardy $3/$2.25. K Greene (4th year) $4.9/$4 following $2.25 last year. Those numbers should inform both sides. This is why Tulo will certainly get $3 M or more in arb even if he's an average SS by then. That's what makes this a good deal -- the arb buyout years here are not priced based on Tulo being a stud SS, they're based on him being pretty standard for an MI right now -- Hardy (92 OPS+), Greene (101 OPS+) or Phillips (85 OPS+, 105 last year). He's already virtually guaranteed to make less in raw dollars during his arb years than Cano's first 3 arb years (I think he's a super 2) or Atkins and most likely less in constant dollars than Hardy, maybe about the same as Greene.

This is a very, very good contract for the Rox, even better than I first thought. They only lose out big if he manages to become substantially worse than JJ Hardy. And man, that Reyes deal looks better and better.

(Note, back to David. Even if Cano and Atkins get what they want and you inflate that 10% a year, that's still $5.5 M in Tulo's first year of arb. 6/9/13 would be pretty extreme it seems to me and that's still just $28 M in arb value.)

Guesses as to how those turn out: Cano $4; Atkins $4.3; Phillips -- I'd take him to arb where the Reds would win, but they'll probably settle at $3.2-3.3; Hardy $2.6; Greene ... $4.4 as the Pads hold the line on not doubling his salary. Phillips is the only one I think has a significant chance of actually going to arb -- his request is ridiculous in context.

How many players with such a history of success have signed contracts to give up their two most desirable years of free agency? David Wright is the only one I can think of off the top of my head - and his contract was a guaranteed $55 million, signed a couple of years back, not $30 million signed in 2008.


Well, when Troy hits like David you might have a point. Secondly it isn't 30 million dollars for two free agent years it is 30 million for one free agent year. If you count the option it would probably be something like 46 to 48 milliom for 2 free agent years.

This is where I think you're dead wrong. He is not being paid like a SS who puts up a 110 OPS+. He's being paid like an average SS.

Is he though? average would be what for arb years 3-4-5? So the average SS by the time he hits free agency has something like 13 million in salary. Troy by the time he hits that 6th year will probably have something like 18 million in salary.

Why is everyone thinking that Tulo will only have 3 arb years? Has he been ruled out as a possible super 2 at the end of this season? My thinking is that that would cause a big hike in his price tag.

Well, when Troy hits like David you might have a point.

I'd assumed you understood the difference between shortstops and third basemen, and how the average shortstop doesn't hit as well as the average third baseman. As it is though, Tulowitzki was one of the top shortstops in the majors last season - top 5 or 6 anyway. Around what Wright was when he signed his extension.

Secondly it isn't 30 million dollars for two free agent years it is 30 million for one free agent year. If you count the option it would probably be something like 46 to 48 milliom for 2 free agent years.


Fair enough. Although again, Wright signed his extension several years ago, AND gave the Mets an option for a third free agent season, making the deal more valuable to the Mets.

Why is everyone thinking that Tulo will only have 3 arb years? Has he been ruled out as a possible super 2 at the end of this season?

He had a month and a day up in the majors in 2006. I doubt that's enough to get him super 2 status.

I'd assumed you understood the difference between shortstops and third basemen, and how the average shortstop doesn't hit as well as the average third baseman

Except this goes against your overall point not for it.

If your point was that the Mets signed David Wright to a great contract after two years and that the Rox could do that after two seasons then this is valid. If your point is that David signed a much higher contract then Troy then what I quoted goes against your view.

Why is everyone thinking that Tulo will only have 3 arb years? Has he been ruled out as a possible super 2 at the end of this season? My thinking is that that would cause a big hike in his price tag.

Super 2's have to be the top third right in terms of service time? No way Troy falls into that category.

okay checked it outm super twos need 2 years plus 86 days and be in the top 17% in terms of seniority.

I think the best comparison to this would be the Cardinals and Albert Pujols, although they didn't lock him up after just one year. The Cardinals are making out VERY well on that long-term deal.

So what's the bottom line?

Now 6/$30m with a team option say 7/$44.

Without the new K (year by year):

$0.5, $0.6, $5.0. $8.0, $12.0, $15.0 and $15.0 = 7/$56.1. (Numbers pulled out of my a$$ so feel free to adjust)

So it appears potential savings of $12.1 if Tulo keeps up his performance from last year or slightly exceeds. Plus the value of getting to free agency years without having to be locked into a 6 year 90 million type contract. Seems like a fair deal for both sides. Neither made out like bandits or anything ....

Is he though? average would be what for arb years 3-4-5? So the average SS by the time he hits free agency has something like 13 million in salary. Troy by the time he hits that 6th year will probably have something like 18 million in salary.

In two years time, average SS are gonna be making about $12-18 M in their 3 arb years, just like Tulowitzki (have the numbers been released yet?). Just look at Hardy now, he's already slated for about $12-15 M (though a multi-year deal at less than that wouldn't surprise me). 2004-2006, Jack Wilson made $10 M and that was a super-2 situation I believe.

Look, it's certainly possible the Rox only break even on this deal. But it's very unlikely they will lose on this deal, barring a major injury, because he will have to be substantially below average for that to happen.

They could wait. But if he ends up posting another couple OPS+ around 110, then you're in Cano/Atkins territory and he'll be getting $5 M or more in his first arb year.

The Jack Wilson decision -- and the first year did actually go to arbitration -- is a very relevant precedent. It basically established that, in 2004 $, if a player starts for 3 years, no matter how mediocre or worse he may be (and Wilson's OPS+ those 3 years were 40, 67 and 70), he's gonna get $2 M. By 2010, that's gonna be $2.5-3 M.

And that Wilson deal makes this a good idea for the same reason the Peralta extension was a good idea for the Indians. People who can play shortstop simply cannot get that far below replacement value and overpaying your utility infielder is not the end of the world.

The conclusion there is that deals like this should be more favored by teams if they are given to CF/SS/Cs rather than 1B/LF/SPs because if a 1B fails to develop you end up paying $6M for a AAA 1B nonprospect.

Pretty close to the final numbers. 6 year deal with a 15 million dollar 7th year option that would bring the final sum to 7 yrs 44 million.

2008: 750k
2009: 750k
2010: 3.5M
2011: 5.5M
2012: 8.5M
2013: 10M
2014: 15M (2M buyout)

Troy will get 19 million before he would have reached his first free agent year.

I'm thinking the Rox should have waited.