I was against the signing and gladly ate crow later. That said, I don't think they should try to milk a rare low-cost, high-reward signing that actually worked for them.

Edmonds said he hasn’t talked to the Cubs about next year.

‘’It would be great to come back and choke with the Cubs one more year,’’ he said. ‘’But we’ll see how it goes."

Dobbs, you're a real piece of work aren't you?

With so much of the focus right now on teams in the postseason, I will be the one to suggest that Brian Sabean might be able to convince him to move into an outfield corner.

Maybe he'd sign for ultra cheap. If so, I'd gladly bring him back.

Whereas I knew it would be a great signing from the beginning. :-)

If he wants to come back as 4th OF on a cheap 1-year deal ($2-3 M?) I'd be fine with that ... but he's not gonna make it to 400 that way. But I sure hope Pie's ready to take over in CF next year.

As good a place as any to start talking about this ...

It was a great season (until this week). The Cubs were clearly the best team in the NL and I haven't been able to say that since 1984 (if ever). Well done.

But I really fear that was our last, best shot for a while. Lee will be 33, Ramirez 31, Soriano 33, DeRosa 34, Fukudome 32, even Theriot 29. A long, slow future of decline and injury with surely one or two cliffs awaits.

And I am a little concerned about Soto. Not that he'll crater but he hit 380/670 on contact this year. That first number just isn't sustainable. I think he's much more likely to hit something like 250/330/450 going forward -- still good for a C but more a 100-ish OPS+ than this year's 122. Also, no matter who we trot out to CF next year, we're going to get less production.

We're still pretty young on the pitching side -- Lilly will be 33 but many lefties age well and Marquis will be 30 (I'm not too worried if he falls off a cliff). Z and Harden are still young and maybe Rich Hill (29!) will put it back together. Even Wood is "just" 32. No, the questions here are whether Dempster can maintain any of this excellent season, will Hill rebound, Harden will stay healthy enough, will Marmol's arm survive, will Samardzija stop walking people. But as questions about pitching staffs go, that's not too bad.

So, as it stands now, I'm seeing a fairly substantial offensive drop for the Cubs. Now, they could drop off quite a bit from this year (they were well above-average at every position except RF) and still be among the best in the NL -- and they likely will be as long as they maintain the patience, are reasonably healthy and get something out of CF/RG.

It would be nice to see them get younger on offense but I'm not sure how. Pie is one choice obviously. Beyond that, we'd have to trade someone and I'm not sure we'd get much for our tradeable pieces. I assume nobody is interested in taking on Soriano's contract. Lee would be a possibility but unless there's somebody I don't know about in the minors, he needs to bring back a top 1B prospect. ARam I think could bring a nice return though at least one of those pieces has to be a 3B (or we gamble significantly on DeRosa and Fontenot). Soto's obviously a guy you want to hang onto.

In short, once again the Cubs difficulties in developing position prospects bites them in the butt.

So, we need an FA RF or SS or possibly CF. If Harden's not healthy (the safe bet), an FA starter would be nice.

This is the 2nd year in a row where the Cubs picked up a seemingly washed up vet midseason and were widely derided, yet the guy had a renaissance. Last offseason, the Brewers were fooled into thinking Kendall's revival (which was much less dramatic than Edmonds') was for real. Hopefully the Cubs aren't similarly taken in this offseason. Still, it was a nice last hurrah for Edmonds.

I like the Giants idea, not that I want to banish Jimmy to lousy team or anything - I had no problem with him signing with the Cubs, and am happy he had a good season. But he has a better chance of playing time on the West Coast, and thus a better chance at compiling the numbers he needs to get into the HoF.

EDIT - Not that he needs the additional time, in my opinion, but I don't vote.

And I am a little concerned about Soto. Not that he'll crater but he hit 380/670 on contact this year. That first number just isn't sustainable. I think he's much more likely to hit something like 250/330/450 going forward -- still good for a C but more a 100-ish OPS+ than this year's 122.

Soto's obviously a guy you want to hang onto.

If you really think he's going to drop off like that, I'm not sure why you don't want to sell high on him.

Soto played seemingly the entire 2nd half with a nagging hand injury. I don't think he'll drop off too much.

Edmonds is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer in my book. How many CF in history have put together 6 straight years like his '00-'05? I don't think he'll get the call, though.

I also support Brian Giles, Jason Giambi, and Jorge Posada, as well as all the obvious ones.

Hoffpauir might be able to handle first if you want to trade Lee, Walt.

Dobbs, you're a real piece of work aren't you?

My last comment on the subject, and here's what I don't understand- why is it ok to make fun of the Giants losing all year, or the Nationals, the Pirates, etc., for SIX MONTHS to make fun out of those teams- but if someone makes fun of the Cubs the poor little Cubbie fans can't take it? Troll! Troll!! Leave us alone!

It's pretty simple- if you guys want to dish it out you should be able to take it too- which you obviously can't...which is why it is so much fun to watch your team lose every single year.

My last comment on the subject, and here's what I don't understand- why is it ok to make fun of the Giants losing all year, or the Nationals, the Pirates, etc., for SIX MONTHS to make fun out of those teams- but if someone makes fun of the Cubs the poor little Cubbie fans can't take it? Troll! Troll!! Leave us alone!

Where are the Cubs fans doing this? More importantly, where are the Giants, Nationals, Pirates, and other fans telling them to stop?

It's one thing to make fun of the Nationals when there aren't any fans around to care or be offended. It's another thing to wander into a thread devoted to a particular team, whose fans are frequenters of BTF, and tell them that they and their teams sucks -- particularly when you have no reason to support their opponent other than to be a douche.

Hey Dobbs, check out my username. Which two teams do you think I'm referring to? (Answer: Nationals and Mariners.) I don't enjoy it when people dog on the Nats or M's UNFAIRLY, but hey...we suck (whichever team you think I mean by "we"). We have sclerotic front offices. We deserve a little razzing.

That's beside the point. What you're doing isn't "making fun" of the Cubs. Hell, Cubs fans do enough of that themselves -- have you seen the beatings guys like Marquis and Fukudome have come in for around here? What you're doing is trying to kick the FANS of these teams while they're down, to celebrate over their shattered hopes at the precise point when you know it's most likely to hurt their feelings. What kind of ####### does that? I'll tell you what kind: the sort of ####### who never grew out of their emotional adolescence. A little smack-talk here and there is always okay, it's part of the game. But what you're doing is beyond that. It's not the worst such violation in the world, but it's still pretty classless.

Where are the Cubs fans doing this?

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/white_sox_sign_dotel/ -- retro trolling (surprise surprise). Pretty sure he trolled the Linebrink-signing thread, too, although I'm not completely certain.

Dobbs, you're a real piece of work aren't you?
The Ignore function is your friend.

retro trolling (surprise surprise).

A. WTF are you talking about? I don't troll other team's threads just to get a rise out of people.
B. You apparently don't know what a troll is; my post in that thread isn't a troll--it's a comment that on a team with as many perceived problems as the White Sox, the bullpen should've been the least of their concerns. (Obviously, I turned out to be wrong, as the White Sox were much better this year than I expected, but that doesn't make the comment a "troll." Apparently your Sox fan brethren didn't think so, either, as at least one [JRE] agreed with me within a few posts (to wit: "re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic"--is he a troll too?).

Not that I should expect a guy who goes by "CWS Keith" to be able to view anything objectively.

Where are the Cubs fans doing this?

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/white_sox_sign_dotel/ -- retro trolling (surprise surprise). Pretty sure he trolled the Linebrink-signing thread, too, although I'm not completely certain.

I just read the Linebrink thread. He didn't. But he DID troll the Dotel thread. Here were the results:

29. retro-shiite Posted: January 22, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#2673782)
A good bullpen on the 2008 Sox is like a nice rack on a warthog.

32. The Jerry Royster Experience Posted: January 22, 2008 at 01:06 PM (#2673809)
A good bullpen on the 2008 Sox is like a nice rack on a warthog.

I agree. The Dotel signing is deck chairs on the Titanic.

This would be similar to:

50. 1k5v3L Posted: January 22, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2673906)
I think Kenny W sorted his 40 man roster by alphabetical order and started culling. Quentin is a lucky SOB that Kenny doesn't know the "Sort Descending" function in Excel.

51. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 22, 2008 at 02:28 PM (#2673917)

I think Kenny W sorted his 40 man roster by alphabetical order and started culling. Quentin is a lucky SOB that Kenny doesn't know the "Sort Descending" function in Excel.


The Uggla Affair explained... finally!

I think that both of these examples fall under the heading of:

What you're doing isn't "making fun" of the Cubs. Hell, Cubs fans do enough of that themselves -- have you seen the beatings guys like Marquis and Fukudome have come in for around here?

While Harris, MHS, Dobbs, Dial, et al are engaging more in this:

What you're doing is trying to kick the FANS of these teams while they're down, to celebrate over their shattered hopes at the precise point when you know it's most likely to hurt their feelings.

I threw a "Go Rays!" into the "Phillies beat the Brewers" roundup thread, and I fully admitted that I was trolling. But there's a difference between trolling and TROLLING

Oh, and as to the actual topic of this thread: thanks for the memories, Jimmy. But I hope you try to get your 400 home runs in someone else's uniform, because I have a scary feeling that this was your last good season.

Oh--and one other thing:

I used the exact same "rack on a warthog" analogy to refer to the Cubs' signing Howry and Eyre before the '06 season.

But there's a difference between trolling and TROLLING

That's certainly true -- I stayed out of the non-Sox game-threads. I imagine that's the place where it was getting ugly (and, obviously, the 'post-game' thread?).

Retro -- it certainly comes off as if you're just trying to get a rise out of (Sox-oriented) folks, although perhaps I'm a little too sensitive in that department. As I said, I seem to recall you making similar posts in other White Sox threads over the winter that I thought were a little obnoxious, but it's certainly not at the level that (apparently) took place this past week (and I was quick to throw out the "troll" tag). If your intent isn't to be a ######## and it's just me being too protective about the team I root for, my apologies. Go Bears.

I can't define trolling, but I know it when I see it.

Retro -- it certainly comes off as if you're just trying to get a rise out of (Sox-oriented) folks, although perhaps I'm a little too sensitive in that department. As I said, I seem to recall you making similar posts in other White Sox threads over the winter that I thought were a little obnoxious, but it's certainly not at the level that (apparently) took place this past week (and I was quick to throw out the "troll" tag). If your intent isn't to be a ######## and it's just me being too protective about the team I root for, my apologies.

Apology accepted, and to be fair, I'll certainly acknowledge the "snarky" intent of the "warthog" post, which I think is less than "trollish" (which I see as simple content-free "ur teem SUXXORRRZZZ loL!!1!!" stuff, like what Harris has been up to of late). (But if you read any Cub threads here, you'll see I unload on the Cubs with double-barreled snark on a regular basis--like I said, I've used that "nice rack on a warthog" line to refer to the Cubs as well.) FWIW, I don't have nearly the animosity toward the Sox that a lot of Cub fans have. I rooted for them throughout the '05 postseason, for instance.

Go Bears.

I suppose now that the Cubs are out of it, I'm morally obligated to care about football or something. Sigh.

I agree that BTF becomes a better place once you feel free to use the ignore feature.

retro-shiite Posted: October 05, 2008 at 09:18 PM (#2969981)

I suppose now that the Cubs are out of it, I'm morally obligated to care about football or something. Sigh.

- oh honey,
you don't have to sink down and try to care about - yecccccchhh - football.
unless you need a lil something to put u to sleep.
- smile
you might could try telling your gf how HOT she is when she not expecting it and hey, youneverknow what might could happen to, uh, raise your spirits...

If you really think he's going to drop off like that, I'm not sure why you don't want to sell high on him.

TROLL!!! :-)

Well, sure, I'm in the "nobody's ever untouchable" camp. And I understand the sentiment. But even a diminished Soto is still a very valuable piece and he's cheap. Hard to imagine them getting enough in return to make that trade worthwhile. And it would open a big hole at C -- is someone going to trade us their stud 23-year-old C prospect plus other quality stuff for Soto?

There's also the possibility that I'm wrong about him. :-)

Hoffpauir might be able to handle first if you want to trade Lee, Walt.

Hoff is the Cubs' Ryan Shealy ... and anyone who slugs 750 in AAA (even if it's just 325 PA) probably doesn't have anything left to prove. But he'll be 29 and might provide a league-averageish year or two (probably in a platoon). Or he might not. And I'll guess that his defense is not stellar. Again it would depend on what Lee might bring back, but even so I'd more expect the Cubs to pick up something on the FA market in that scenario.

The Cubs are just in that awkward spot. On the one hand, they are clearly "contenders" next year, have lots of average-good players, and are only 2-3 pieces away. On the other hand, they're getting older, they had a number of better-than-expected performances (also some worse), and those 2-3 pieces tend to be at hard-to-find spots (some combo of 2B/SS/CF/RF ... RF not that hard to find ... along with pitching). Do you take another run at it because the window's closing or do you start rebuilding because the window's closing?

Ahh hell ... trade Z, Lilly, Dempster (or is he an FA?), Harden, Lee, Ramirez (not in one deal) for David Price, Mat Gamel the human error machine, Chris Davis, an Upton, Cano and Charles Thomas.

oh god. BBC is the Sarah Palin of BTF.

scott,

thank you for saying one of the most offensive things you could possibly have said to me.

i did exactly WHAT to deserve that? talk to my old friend?

maybe i'm not rihanna but i am not old and dumpy and frumpy like sarah frickin palin. and i might not have her high quality education, but i am not stupid enough to leave a city with more than a few great hospital when i go into labor with a downs syndrome baby to fly 11 fricking hours to some crappy 2 bit hospital in the middle of nowheres. i wouldn't have been stupid enuf to go off flying when i was 9 months pregnant at ALL.

and i will thank u to never EVER compare me to ANY politician who i think are ALL scum right down there with baby rapers

I think all of BTF has your back here, bbc. Though you forgot to put "high quality education" in quotes.

sarah frickin palin

uck

and i don't CARE what party she belongs to neither. here and her diploma from whatever college U

just UCK

but her and hillary give hope to ugly stoopid females everywhere that fer SHER they can find SOME male willing to efff em

They do talk the same, don't they.

And BBC, Sarah is good looking!

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/white_sox_sign_dotel/ -- retro trolling (surprise surprise). Pretty sure he trolled the Linebrink-signing thread, too, although I'm not completely certain.

I'm not going to try to defend all Cubs fans, or even all on BTF, but I want to point out two things:

1. In that thread, Retro wasn't trolling. His comment was basically that Dotel was going to be useless, which is hardly trolling. He may have trolled in a Linebrink thread; I don't know and don't care.

2. Fred Dobbs's point wasn't that Cubs fans can troll now and then; rather, it was that Cubs fans make a habit of continually making fun of weaker teams. Specifically, he asked "why is it ok to make fun of the Giants losing all year, or the Nationals, the Pirates, etc., for SIX MONTHS to make fun out of those teams?"

Pointing out an isolated example or two by one Cubs fan is hardly an example of this.

My last comment on the subject, and here's what I don't understand- why is it ok to make fun of the Giants losing all year, or the Nationals, the Pirates, etc., for SIX MONTHS to make fun out of those teams- but if someone makes fun of the Cubs the poor little Cubbie fans can't take it? Troll! Troll!! Leave us alone!

The Giants deserve to be made fun of, but the "Brian Sabean will sign 38-year-old or 75-year-old or dead for 30 years player" is just worn out at this point.

I can suggest a lot of things Edmonds can do with himself, but retirement isn't one of them.

Say what you will about Hillary Clinton, but no one should ever call her stupid.

I also support Brian Giles, Jason Giambi, and Jorge Posada, as well as all the obvious ones.


Seriously? Your HOF is either really, really big, or else it's just based entirely on 5 year peaks with almost no consideration for career numbers at all.

And here I thought that CWS Keith was a big College World Series fan.

Seriously? Your HOF is either really, really big, or else it's just based entirely on 5 year peaks with almost no consideration for career numbers at all.

And as 5-year peaks for corner OF go, it's nothing special.

No, I suspect that like many around here, he may be guilty of two things:

1. Obsession with rate stats and overlooking/downplaying playing time

2. HoF corner OF, especially those voted in by the writers, Jim Rice excepted, are really, really good. Even Giles' "no decline phase" 139 OPS+ isn't really that impressive.

But I'll grant he's pretty darn close and with good defense might already qualify. Give him another 400 games at this level and I'd probably let him squeak in.

Combine Brian Giles's hitting, Marcus Giles's defense, Warren Giles's longevity, and Giles Corey's attitude, and you've got a Hall of Famer.

Because I find this a smidgen fascinating ...

I looked at players with OBPs of at least 390 and 7000+ PAs from ages 25 to 37 (Giles' career). 30 players have done this and Giles ranks 18th in OPS+. The most borderline guys in front of him are Giambi, Thome and Sheffield. Of course those guys are at least 9 points of OPS+ ahead over that time span. That's better than I thought. I think everyone behind him is an HoFer too though a couple are VC picks (and many aren't corner OFs).

If I look just at guys with a 130 OPS+ or better, there are 50 of those. You get a few more "borderline" guys there -- or rather guys who would get in as much on career counting stats as peak -- Delgado, Sosa, Palmeiro, Reggie.

Anyway, a better peak than I was giving him credit for and those criteria produce a pretty bullet-proof list of great players. But a number on that list made the HoF with excellent career value too -- I don't think a Dave Winfield or Billy Williams or Eddie Murray (2100 hits, 330 HR from 25-37) or even Reggie ("just" 378 HR from 25-37) would make it on those numbers alone.

I'm not a big Hall guy at all--I take the size of the real institution (as per the Hall of Merit's approach, where I vote). And I balance peak and career using an exponential function that weights each in-season marginal win more than the last, to reflect how the actual MLB free agent market compensates players (per Nate Silver's findings). I'd say it's pretty career-friendly, though: Andre Dawson is in for me, while Ralph Kiner isn't.

I don't know why you'd suggest that I "overlook" or "downplay" playing time--Giles has been pretty durable, with most of his peak seasons over 150 games played. If you're referring to career length, then yes, he got a late start, through no fault of his own. He was clearly ready for the majors by the start of 1995, but the Cleveland juggernaut had a Godly outfield of Belle, Lofton, and Manny, and an extremely productive Eddie Murray at DH, so they literally had nowhere to put him. They left him in AAA for both '95 and '96, and he raked there. Then in '97 they juggled him with the recently acquired David Justice, who had a monster year, giving him only 451 PA. In 1998 they insisted on platooning him with Mark Whiten, only to give him away the following offseason to Pittsburgh for Ricardo Rincón. And in 1999, he obviously took off. I think Giles' MLB record is deserving of the Hall in and of itself, but I also think he fully deserves to have his minor league production in '95 and '96 translated to a major league equivalent performance and added to his record, as well as "missing" plate appearances from '97 and '98 for when he was riding the pine.

That said, Giles has far more than just his 1999-2003 offense. He played 300 games in CF, all during his offensive peak, and his fielding in right in San Diego has been absolutely superb according to both UZR and Dewan's Plus/Minus. Moreover, OPS+ substantially understates his offensive value on the Padres, since his production has been so OBP-heavy. (His high-walk game is obviously extra-valuable in a park that makes it harder to get on base via the hit--with a normal production shape, his OPS+ in 2005 "should" have been 154, not the actual 146). What he's lost in home run power to PETCO he's made up with walks and defense (not completely in '06 and '07, but absolutely in '04, '08, and obviously '05 which may actually have been his best year overall). When you take the whole package together, you're talking about eight years of high All-Star to MVP-caliber production ('99-'05 and '08), plus four more as a well above-average player ('97, '98, '06, and '07). That puts him comfortably over the in/out line for non-"mistake" selections. And with any extra credit for getting screwed from '95 to '98, he becomes a slam dunk.

Walt--"Borderline?" Sheffield is a mortal lock; one of the top 15 or so greatest MLB corner OF ever. Thome is a top 10 alltime 1B. Giambi is indisputably borderline, but just on the right side of the line. He doesn't have anything close to Giles's defensive value, but obviously was a better hitter at his best.