Your 20/20 hindsight is commendable and remarkably accurate.

-golf clap-

Has Prior officially retired?

Your 20/20 hindsight is commendable and remarkably accurate.

To be fair, he is admitting to being one of the many with pretty lousy 20/20 foresight.

2. Zuvella! Posted: November 24, 2009 at 12:52 AM (#3395295)
Has Prior officially retired?

No. The Padres finally released him earlier this year, but he made no noise about retiring.

Put him somewhere on the field less vital and he gets beat out by one Yankee (Mark Teixeira) and maybe a second (Derek Jeter).

Probably true, but only because Mauer missed so much time at the beginning of the season. He was the best hitter in the league on a per at bat basis. I think his athletic ability would make him a fine defensive third baseman if he had a year or two to work at it.

"Many"? "We"? Speak for yourself. I remember most people thought drafting Mauer was a fine idea. Everybody in MN knows Reusse blew this one. He should just admit it and take his lumps rather than trying to hide out in an imaginary crowd.

And one more thing: Joe Mauer officially became an MVP on Monday precisely because he’s a tremendous catcher with large offensive numbers. Put him somewhere on the field less vital and he gets beat out by one Yankee (Mark Teixeira) and maybe a second (Derek Jeter).

I'm sorry, but this is just ####### stupid.

"Many"? "We"? Speak for yourself. I remember most people thought drafting Mauer was a fine idea. Everybody in MN knows Reusse blew this one. He should just admit it and take his lumps rather than trying to hide out in an imaginary crowd.

People in Minnesota may have liked the idea of getting the local kid. The national media were more or less unanimous in saying that Mauer was a fine talent, but Prior was a once in a generation talent, and the Twins just didn't want to pay him.

And one more thing: Joe Mauer officially became an MVP on Monday precisely because he’s a tremendous catcher with large offensive numbers. Put him somewhere on the field less vital and he gets beat out by one Yankee (Mark Teixeira) and maybe a second (Derek Jeter).

I'm sorry, but this is just ####### stupid.

Or - if he hits like Kenji Kohjima, he doesn't win either. When you get right down to hit, Joe Mauer is lucky he plays a premium position really well while hitting at a level that saw him win the OPS triple crown... that's really all that separates him from the rabble.

BTW -

The interesting thing about that draft was that Teixeira was probably the consensus #1 prior to the season, but he got hurt, Prior set records, and the rest was history.

I was still secretly holding out hope the Cubs would tab Teixeira rather than Prior up until the announcement, but completely understood why they took Prior.

A baseball operation would have to be run by rockheads to move a great catcher—and Mauer’s that—as long as his skills behind the plate remain near their zenith. This is the game’s most important playing position, and the Twins are blessed with the game’s best.

Well, yeah, duh, but... what about the possibility that catching might be shortening the career of one of the best pure hitters who ever picked up a bat? Wouldn't you have to have rocks in your head to not at least give that a passing thought?

The national media were more or less unanimous in saying that Mauer was a fine talent, but Prior was a once in a generation talent, and the Twins just didn't want to pay him.

And they were absolutely right. If money wasn't an issue, the Twins would have grabbed Prior in a heartbeat. We all saw what a healthy Prior can do.

There were several very talented players in the 2009 draft. One or two may go on to win an MVP. But if the Nationals had drafted someone other than Strasburg due to signability issues, everyone would have mocked them mercilessly.

OK, I went to the bother to log-in so ... I thought youse guys thought Prior was mismanaged into oblivion; if the choice is between Mauer and an elite pitcher then it isn't such an easy one.

"Many"? "We"? Speak for yourself. I remember most people thought drafting Mauer was a fine idea. Everybody in MN knows Reusse blew this one. He should just admit it and take his lumps rather than trying to hide out in an imaginary crowd.

I don't think this is true at all. Most in Minnesota were excited to see what Mauer could do, but saw it as a signability pick and another sad example of the disparity between the haves and have-nots in baseball.

And rightly so, really. It was great luck for the Twins that there was another top-five-or-so talent who was an incredibly popular local kid, but there's no way, in a pinko commie system where all teams have an equal ability to pay their draftees, that the team with the #1 pick passes on Prior. Just lucky for us this time, I guess. Or maybe unlucky for Prior? Maybe he stays perfectly healthy with the Twins and he and Santana become another Schilling and Johnson. Who knows. Anyway, I was pretty pumped about Mauer from day one, but just about everybody (probably me included) thought they would have been at least a little better off if they could have gotten Prior.

Anyway, I was pretty pumped about Mauer from day one, but just about everybody (probably me included) thought they would have been at least a little better off if they could have gotten Prior.

And no one sheds any tears over what might have been for Florida State...

Most in Minnesota were excited to see what Mauer could do, but saw it as a signability pick and another sad example of the disparity between the haves and have-nots in baseball.

Right; Mauer was a top-flight prospect, but that's all he was - a prospect. Prior was essentially major-league ready on the day he was drafted.

It's to the credit of the Twins' scouting and development that Mauer became what he became, but if Terry Ryan is saying that money wasn't an issue in that draft, then he's lying.

Put him somewhere on the field less vital and he gets beat out

Hey, Reusse has a point. Look at Peyton Manning: put him at linebacker, and somebody else wins those MVPs.

Reusse's photo in TFA is interesting. He looks Tom Hanks, only somewhat squashed.

The Twins did pay Mauer a $5.15M signing bonus. It's not like he was free.

The Cubs gave Prior a 5 year, $10.5M contract. Mauer earned that much this year. I don't have any problem with a team preferring to pay for actual production when it materializes rather than being forced to pay up front for potential. But it's not like they picked Matt Bush ahead of Justin Verlander.

Terry Ryan's not lying. The Twins wanted Mauer over Prior, partly because of the local angle. They knew Mauer was going to be a stud athlete.

I am not convinced that they'd have taken Mauer over Prior if money were not an issue. I am very happy with the decision they made, for whatever reason they made it.

Well, yeah, duh, but... what about the possibility that catching might be shortening the career of one of the best pure hitters who ever picked up a bat? Wouldn't you have to have rocks in your head to not at least give that a passing thought?

No, the Twins shouldn't consider that for one instant.

Mauer is 26, and they control his age 27 season. Let's say they sign him to a 6 year extension.

Now they control him through his age 33 season. There is no reason to think catching will derail his career before then.

All the greatest offensive catchers (Berra, Bench, Piazza, Cochrane, Dickey, Hartnett, Lombardi, Posada - top 8 in OPS+), maintained their production through age 32 while catching. Only Cochrane fell off at age 33, and Bench moved positions but kept hitting. The modern elite catchers have fared even better (IRod, Fisk, Posada), catching well into their late 30's.

Minnesota has no reason to care what Mauer's production is at age 36-40. And neither does Mauer really. If he continues his production as a catcher for another 6-7 years, he be waltzing into Cooperstown as one of the 5 greatest catchers ever.

Put Zack Greinke somewhere else on the field and he gets beat out for the Cy Young by one Yankee (C.C. Sabathia) and maybe a second (Spud Chandler).

I am not convinced that they'd have taken Mauer over Prior if money were not an issue.

As a Cub fan, I was pondering sort of the opposite scenario: if the Twins had had the money and/or inclination to take Prior at #1, would the Cubs have taken Mauer at #2?

We can never know, of course, but for some reason, I have a feeling they'd have taken someone like Brazelton...

Retro, I remember that before that draft Phil Rogers wrote that the Cubs wanted Prior, but Texiera was likely their second choice if the Twins took Prior. Take that for what it's worth.
EDIT: Interesting to ponder what Dusty might have doen to ruin Tex's career.

Minnesota has no reason to care what Mauer's production is at age 36-40. And neither does Mauer really.

You are making some assumptions about longevity at the position. Change those assumptions a little -- purely hypothetically, what if there is a sound medical reason to think that catching would cause Mauer to decline substantially before age 30? -- and your calculus changes as well. So I'll stick with my original statement since, after all, what you posted easily qualifies as "a passing thought."

Retro, I remember that before that draft Phil Rogers wrote that the Cubs wanted Prior, but Texiera was likely their second choice if the Twins took Prior. Take that for what it's worth.

Yeah, I'm near certain it would have been Teixeira. Mauer was certainly highly rated, but he was a HS catcher, while Brazelton just wasn't in the same class as the Marks.

I'll reiterate again, BOTH Teixeira and Prior entered that season as bonafide "don't come along often" prospects. If not for Teixeira missing virtually all of that college season due to injury, I would not have been surprised to see the Cubs pass on Prior in favor him.

I think it's a little strange Teixeira went as low as he did (#5). Was Gavin Floyd (let alone Brazelton) really all that?

EDIT: I should RTFT before posting; Tex missing the previous season explains it, I assume. I'd forgotten about that. Interesting, in that Tex has certainly been a durable major leaguer (in contrast to He of the Perfect Mechanics™).

Gavin Floyd was considered an excellent prospect when he was drafted. We've seen flashes of why that is over the past couple of seasons.

If not for Teixeira missing virtually all of that college season due to injury, I would not have been surprised to see the Cubs pass on Prior in favor him.

Especially since the Cubs were limping along with a first base platoon of Matt Stairs and Ron Coomer at the time...

Gavin Floyd was considered an excellent prospect when he was drafted.

Yeah, but as zonk said, Teixeira was considered beyond excellent.

And no one sheds any tears over what might have been for Florida State...

Southern Cal, actually.

IIRC, weren't there signability issues with Teixeira, as well as his injury? I seem to recall that the injury didn't lower his asking price.

Southern Cal, actually.

He was talking about Mauer turning down a football scholarship from the Seminoles.

Hendry has said that the Cubs would have taken Mauer if the Twins drafted Prior. Of course, he said this just a couple of years ago (that I know of) so take it with a grain of salt.

Teixeira was also a Boras client, and in the wake of the J.D. Drew debacle there was a lot of caution about drafting his clients. Philadelphia drafted ahead of the Rangers, and they sure as hell weren't going to touch him.

Philadelphia drafted ahead of the Rangers, and they sure as hell weren't going to touch him.

Right; and the #3 pick was Tampa Bay, who had made it quite clear that they were going with a signability pick.

You are making some assumptions about longevity at the position. Change those assumptions a little -- purely hypothetically, what if there is a sound medical reason to think that catching would cause Mauer to decline substantially before age 30? -- and your calculus changes as well. So I'll stick with my original statement since, after all, what you posted easily qualifies as "a passing thought."

Then I wouldn't extend him. He's going to get paid as a C who is a top hitter, he's substantially less valuable at any other position.

In any case, where's the evidence of good hitting catchers declining in their late 20's? I can't think of one example. I think my assumptions are very sound.

Edit: Looking at the top 20 or so C's in history by OPS+, the only one who lost effectiveness or had to move positions before age 33 was Roger Breshnahan, way back in the teens.

I may be totally misremembering this, but wasn't Tex only in this draft because the Red Sox hadn't been able to sign him the year before?

I may be totally misremembering this, but wasn't Tex only in this draft because the Red Sox hadn't been able to sign him the year before?

The Sox drafted him out of high school in 1998. He opted for Georgia Tech, and was drafted by Texas after his junior year.

I think someone actually drafted Prior out of HS, too (the Yankees, maybe?)....

He was talking about Mauer turning down a football scholarship from the Seminoles.

Ah. Did not know that. But it's football, so who cares.

I think someone actually drafted Prior out of HS, too (the Yankees, maybe?)....

Yes, the Yanks did.

In any case, where's the evidence of good hitting catchers declining in their late 20's? I can't think of one example. I think my assumptions are very sound.

Well, Tony Pena is one example.

Edit: Looking at the top 20 or so C's in history by OPS+, the only one who lost effectiveness or had to move positions before age 33 was Roger Breshnahan, way back in the teens.

What you really want to look at, to do this right, is the top 20 or so catchers in OPS+ before the age of 30, and see how they did after turning 30. A guy like Pena has a poor overall OPS+ because he was a good enough glove man to stick around for about a decade after he stopped hitting.

You would get the same results for the top overall outfielders, but then you'd be ignoring guys like Ellis Valentine who were pretty good in their 20's and flamed out quickly.

Reusse's photo in TFA is interesting. He looks Tom Hanks, only somewhat squashed.

Tom Hanks plus an extra two bills you mean.

Right; Mauer was a top-flight prospect, but that's all he was - a prospect.

If that's what most people thought then somebody oughta be payin' me a lot of money. Mauer was the national high school football player of the year, (yes, he was a QB and had a scholarship offer from Florida State, Chris Weinke was from the same high school as Mauer) I think he was the national high school baseball player of the year, and he played basketball in the state tournament, though it's true that people now remember him as being better at hoops than he was. He was just a prospect with more athletic ability than Derek Jeter and Mark Tiexiera combined and the sweetest swing you ever saw. I coulda told ya he was more that just a prospect. And if that's what the Twins thought and they took him #1 anyway, shame on them. But they knew he was more than just a prospect, too.

I mean, where are you saying he should have been drafted? #2? #10? #100?

So, accepting that Bresnahan is from another era, there are only a few catchers who really trailed off before 33 who were in the top 20 in OPS+ before age 30 for guys with 600+ games. There's Earl Smith who really just stopped producing, and there's Joe Torre who moved to 3B and had a career year. There'a also Johnny Romano who had a great year at 31, then had his career ended abruptly at 32. I don't know why.

If you move the cutoff back to 27, you include guys like Jason Kendall and Matt Nokes in the top 20 catchers.

What you really want to look at, to do this right, is the top 20 or so catchers in OPS+ before the age of 30, and see how they did after turning 30.

OK.

The top 10 are Piazza, (Mauer), Campanella, Bench, Fisk, Berra, Dickey, Cochrane, Lombardi and Simmonds (min 2000 PAs).
Earliest drop off or position switch of the 9 is 31 for Simmonds. The rest are 33-35 before they have to move, or stop hitting.

The next 15 are Dick Dietz, Gabby Hartnett, Johnny Romano, Chris Hoiles, Carter, (Victor Martinez), (Brian McCann), Munson, Stan Lopata, Tettleton, Duke Sims, Smoky Burgess, Jorge Posada, Joe Ferguson and Spud Davis.

A few declined at 31 (Davis, Simms, Munson, Lopata) but most maintained their performance until 32 or 33, and some quite a bit longer.

Dick Dietz is the odd case. He broke his wrist and had a short, poor season at age 30. He then had an excellent batting season as a reserve at age 31, and then was out of baseball. Apparently Dietz was an early advocated of the players union and seems to have been black-balled for it.

Still no evidence of good hitting catchers falling apart in their late 20's. And we're all the way down to a 115 OPS+, which is quite a ways away from Mauer's 136.

The aging curve for great catchers is pretty clear. Age 31-34 is the critical window. Some tank, some have to move to other positions but keep hitting, and some just keep chugging.

I mean, where are you saying he should have been drafted?

If money wasn't an issue? Probably #3, behind Prior and Teixeira.

I think you missed my point. Even if Mauer was the highest-rated prospect to ever play the game, that doesn't change the fact that he was a prospect.

Prior could have joined almost any major-league rotation the day after he signed, and made that rotation better. He wasn't a prospect - he was a finished product.

Jason Kendall and Matt Nokes in the top 20 catchers.

Nokes was DH'd heavily very early in his career, which sort of make him a different type.

Kendall's decline was more of a catastorphic injury situation, wasn't it?

I mean, where are you saying he should have been drafted? #2? #10? #100?

I don't think anyone is saying that, but a legitimate case could be made for Teixeira, Prior, and Mauer being any combination of 1/2/3 in that draft, even if you ignore any contractual implications.

It was an exceptionally deep top heavy draft, with maybe a half dozen picks that could have been legitimate consensus #1s in most years.

Nokes was DH'd heavily very early in his career, which sort of make him a different type.

Not really. Only a little more than Mauer was this year. He mostly DH'ed like Mauer does, to get his bat in the lineup more often than he could catching. But it is true that he was never considered a good defensive catcher.

Kendall's decline was more of a catastorphic injury situation, wasn't it?

Yes, and it was running out a ground ball, rather than catching, when it happened.

Anyways, I doubt that even the 10% flameout rate is high by the standards of the other positions. I now agree that it wouldn't make sense to move Mauer to prolong his peak. It might make sense to move him if you thought he'd hit better without the burden of catching, or if you wanted to get his bat into the lineup more, or if you thought that, like Craig Biggio, he'd be able to handle another premium defensive position, or like Victor Martinez, you thought he was a so-so or worse catcher, and would be decent somewhere else. I think the latter two reasons are clearly not relevant for Mauer. The former two might be. You might think about moving Mauer or having him catch less and DH/1B/3B more if you had another good catcher.

You might think about moving Mauer or having him catch less and DH/1B/3B more if you had another good catcher.

I'd definitely think about doing a 110-120 G limit on his catching, mostly just to prevent him wearing down in season.

I've always though Posada would have put up better numbers if Torre didn't ride him so hard.

I've always though Posada would have put up better numbers if Torre didn't ride him so hard.

Also, Torre should have had him catch fewer games. WORDPLAY!

a legitimate case could be made for Teixeira, Prior, and Mauer being any combination of 1/2/3 in that draft, even if you ignore any contractual implications.

Agreed.

Furthermore, although the Twins were suddenly competitive in 2001 and could have benefited from the addition of Prior in 2002-2003, they also thought of pitching (Radke/Milton/Mays) as the strength of the team, making the immediate addition of another pitcher somewhat less important than a potential impact bat down the road. Add in the financial and marketing considerations, and there simply was no compelling reason to pick Prior over Mauer, assuming that both were top-flight talents.

I'd definitely think about doing a 110-120 G limit on his catching, mostly just to prevent him wearing down in season.

At quite reasonable cost, you should be able to find a right-handed hitting backup type with a big platoon split. Say, e.g. Henry Blanco, who's OK offensively against LHP, and about as good as Mauer defensively. Then you let that backup play against the lefties, and DH Mauer against lefties. Then you also never have to play Kubel against lefties, whom he can't hit.