Hard to find much to quibble with there. But I'll say there's no way the Yankees win 96 games being in that division, especially with A-Rod being such a question mark now.

I'll also say the Angels somehow manage to exceed their projections like they always seem to.

I'm as down on the White Sox as anyone, but I can just about guarantee you that they won't finish in fifth place in their division.

Wow, his projections are almost exactly how I think things will go in both leagues, except I have Minnesota barely ahead of Detroit.

I'm as down on the White Sox as anyone, but I can just about guarantee you that they won't finish in fifth place in their division.

Really? I can see any of the five teams in that division finishing first, and any of them finishing last as well.

I can see any of the five teams in that division finishing first, and any of them finishing last as well.

The Royals will finish last, and the Tigers will finish fourth. Everything else is sort of a toss-up.

A lot depends on how bad Joe Mauer is hurt. If he is ineffective or out for a big chunk of the season, the Twins will struggle.

I could see the Jays finishing with a couple more wins (they were, after all, a 93 win team by pythag last year), but I can't really argue with the estimate of them finishing in 4th.

I agree. 76 is too low... but I can't see anything over .500

A few points:

I agree with Joey about the Yankees and the Angels. If I had to pick, I would have NYY at about 91-71, and in 3rd place. That said, I think calling the AL East winner is very hard. I think Abreu will help the Angels a lot in covering for the departure of Teixeira, I think they will get some help from Wood this year, and my guess is they will also go about 91-71 instead of winning in the 80s.

Teams that I think will do better than most projections: Baltimore, Milwaukee, and Colorado.

Teams that I think will do worse than most projections: Cincinnati, Chicago Cubs.

IMO the Indians will take the NL Central, in spite of their rotation question marks.

The Royals will finish last, and the Tigers will finish fourth. Everything else is sort of a toss-up.

I guess I really don't see how you can be so sure. All five teams are pretty mediocre. I can easily see a scenario where each team finishes last:

Tigers: Bullpen is awful, two automatic outs at shortstop and catcher, Robertson continues to suck, Bonderman continues to be hurt, Verlander is dealt

Royals: Farnsworth is awful, Guillen is awful, Jacobs is an out machine, Aviles majorly regresses, Butler busts, Gload and Pena play a lot

White Sox: Floyd majorly regresses, Contreras reveals he is 63 and pitches like it, Colon is hurt or sucks, middle relief has problems, Konerko continues to suck, centerfield is an out machine, Ramirez' defense is awful

Twins: Mauer is hurt, corner outfield defense continues to play awful defense, Punto reverts to 2007 numbers, Gomez disappoints, Liriano gets hurt

Indians: Pronk and Martinez are hurt, Pavano is hurt/ineffective, Lewis isn't ready, Kerry Wood is hurt, bullpen stinks, Cliff Lee majorly regresses

I'm not saying any of those scenarios is necessarily likely, but neither are they huge stretches. Any team in this division can finish last place, and finishing last place in this division may not necessarily require a bad record either. I think all five teams could finish within ten games of each other.

so it's 50-50 for an AL East team to win 100? Wow. That would be 109 in the NL West.

I'm with Joey B. I rarely differ from the consensus projections by 5 wins or more. In the case of the Yankees 2009, I do. I'll take the under on the Yankees scoring 853 runs. Off by 50 runs.

I agree. 76 is too low... but I can't see anything over .500

Yep. They seem like a roughly 0.500 team - I could see them doing really well outside of the AL East, but ending up at just under the .500 mark due to repeated beatings at the hands of New York, Boston, and Tampa (Curse you, Matt Garza!).

If the Rangers actually wind up scoring fewer than 800 runs this year, it's gonna be a MIGHTY long summer in Arlington.

With the 72-win projection, I guess I really should be prepping for that. At least I have FC Dallas to get me through...D'oh!!!

I guess I really don't see how you can be so sure. All five teams are pretty mediocre. I can easily see a scenario where each team finishes last:

I'm sure you can come up with a scenario where any team will finish last.

But in reality, you have to come up with a scenario where the Royals are better than any other team in the division. I don't see that happening.

So which players on the Yankees do people think are being overprojected, and why?

So which players on the Yankees do people think are being overprojected, and why?

I think the pitchers are for starters- Burnett and Sabathia will give up more runs than projected because the Yankees' dee is really bad (though Tex is a huge improvement at 1B compared to what they've had recently).

How bad is their D? I know that Jeter is considered to be below average but A_Rod (and his replacement), Cano, and Tex are all considered to be above average, and I thought that Damon rated as an above average LF. Doesn't Gardener also have a decent defensive rep?

the Yankees' dee is really bad

I don't think this is true. It has been bad, but getting rid of Abreu and Giambi goes a long, long way to fixing the situation. Jeter is not good, of course, but an outfield of Damon/Gardner/Nady/Swisher/Cabrera is likely to be above average. Teixeira is a huge upgrade, as noted. Cano is an enigma defensively, so I'd rather not try to predict where he'll be. A-Rod will be probably slightly below average. Posada/Molina are probably average in total.

Put it all together and I think that defense is at worst slightly below average, not "really bad." At best (ie: the good Cano shows up; outfield is Damon/Gardner/Swisher), I think it can be solidly above average, even with Jeter out there.

So which players on the Yankees do people think are being overprojected, and why.

Sabathia, Burnett, Rivera, Jeter, Damon, and Posada all MAY be a little overprojected--Sabathia and Burnett due to league/D and the others due to age. They lost Mussina, Giambi and Abreu. I think they have more "negative question marks" than "positive question marks." Positive question marks are Hughes, Chamberlain, and Cano. And, I think Joey's point about Rodriguez is well-taken. He may be out awhile and it is hard to say how much/if the furor/BS will affect him. His injury is a huge deal, IMO, given the division.

But, I don't want to overstate the case. Tampa Bay may have some major regressions. Boston has some questions with age and maintenance of high performance. The Yankees could go 95-67 and miss the playoffs or go 97-65 and win the division. But, if I had to pick it today:

Bos
TB
NYY

But I give NYY about a 25% shot at the division.

I will be very surprised if one of these teams is NOT the WC.

The Royals will finish last, and the Tigers will finish fourth. Everything else is sort of a toss-up.

doing my fantasy draft last night and I was surprised at how many Royals I like as "sleeper" picks. I don't think any team will feel bad if they had Aviles, Soria, Butler, Gordon, Greinke, or even Dejesus on their team. Obviously they aren't a great team or a team that is realisitic a consistent contender, but it isn't that hard of a stretch to think they have the ability to have things fall in place. Yes I'm projecting them fifth also, but that doesn't change that out of all the projected last place teams(Orioles, Mariners, Nationals, Pirates, Giants???) they have probably the best chance of being competitive. Partially due to league strength, but also due to a host of young talent that can perform a Tampa this year. (again not as good of a talent base as Tampa had, and probably not the roster depth either)

I could see the Jays finishing with a couple more wins (they were, after all, a 93 win team by pythag last year), but I can't really argue with the estimate of them finishing in 4th.

As I mentioned with Baltimore, the division kills them. Moving Baltimore to the NL Central took them from 74-88 to 81-81 (using CAIRO). I'm pretty sure I'd see the same thing with Toronto.

In the case of the Yankees 2009, I do. I'll take the under on the Yankees scoring 853 runs. Off by 50 runs.

PECOTA agrees with you. Their projections have the Yankees under 800 runs, although when I ran them through Diamond Mind I got them average 822, which could be due to park factor differences and slightly different depth charts. However, they also seem to be projecting a lower AL run environment than the other systems:

<u>cairo</u>
AL R/G: 4.76
NL R/G: 4.88

<u>chone</u>
AL R/G: 4.67
NL R/G: 4.60

<u>hbt</u>
AL R/G: 4.75
NL R/G: 4.72

<u>marcel</u>
AL R/G: 4.75
NL R/G: 4.83

<u>pecota</u>
AL R/G: 4.66
NL R/G: 4.76

<u>zips</u>
AL R/G: 4.78
NL R/G: 4.78

<u>average</u>
AL R/G: 4.73
NL R/G: 4.76

I think the pitchers are for starters- Burnett and Sabathia will give up more runs than projected because the Yankees' dee is really bad (though Tex is a huge improvement at 1B compared to what they've had recently).

The defense doesn't really look that bad if you look at their BIS UZRs from 2005-2008. Last year's team was -36.6 according to Fangraphs' UZR, but Abreu (-23), Betemit (-4), Giambi (-4), Ensberg (-3) and Sexson (-2) are gone. Swisher(in LF or RF) and Tex both project as plus defenders.

Jeter was average last year, but I'd project him to be around -8 in 2009. Cano was -7, but was +11 in 2008 so I'd project him to be closer to average in 2009 (-3). Gardner's defense was off the charts good by both UZR and ZR in 2008, but it's a really small sample size. CHONE has him at +5 which seems reasonable. Damon had pretty good range in LF, although he gives back some of that value with one of the worst throwing arms in baseball, but overall I don't think it's unrealistic that he's about average. Nady's not great in the OF corners, but he's not horribly bad either, maybe somewhere in the -3 to -5 area.

Posada's probably going to be pretty bad depending on how he recovers from his shoulder surgery but Molina will at least play decent D backing him up.

That's not a great defense, but it's not that bad. Also, Sabathia and Burnett get lots o' Ks, which should mitigate some of the defensive impact to their performances.

the Yankees' dee is really bad

I also disagree with this. The defense is likely to be average.

I see only Jeter as significantly below average. Damon, Swisher and Gardner are all above average (Gardner likely well above average). ARod, Tex and Cano should be averagish, as should the Posada/Molina combo.

The butchers (Giambi, Abreu, and Matsui) are gone, or won't play the field.

A very small sample size of course, but when I saw him live in spring training, Cody Ransom left me seriously unimpressed out on the field.

Yankee fans had better pray that A-Rod comes back ASAP, otherwise I think that left side defense could be a real adventure in the meantime.

Tampa's the new Toronto!

The Royals will finish last, and the Tigers will finish fourth. Everything else is sort of a toss-up.

I guess I really don't see how you can be so sure. All five teams are pretty mediocre. I can easily see a scenario where each team finishes last:

This kind of division is Manna from Heaven for a poor (yet improved) team like the Royals, who have enough young players that they could certainly sneak into the division title if the best team (Indians) underperforms.

The Blue Jays run differential is expected to drop 150 runs after losing Burnett and Zaun. That is not going to happen. Anyone want to make any bets?

The Blue Jays run differential is expected to drop 150 runs after losing Burnett and Zaun. That is not going to happen. Anyone want to make any bets?

Well, it's not just Burnett and Zaun. It's also Marcum, and a half-season of McGowan, and the added impact of New York, Boston, and Tampa adding players who the Jays will have to face on a far too regular basis.

That being said, I agree that expecting the Jays' run differential to change by 150 in the wrong direction is probably on the high side.

Bump City Bumphus for bibigon.

Re-bump

re-re bump to bump up total!