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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, July 30, 2007
Saltalamacchia, Andrus, and two pitching prospects...pending review of medical records.
I’m guessing Harrison and someone else, given that Harrison is battling arm issues right now.
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Wow. Someone managed to work "Boras" and "discount" into the same sentence, without the phrase "never gives" somewhere in between!
Have they had one not work out? I don't know their history really well, but I'm having a hard time thinking of a prospect they dealt away coming back to bite them in the ass. Jason Schmidt maybe?
Start him a first base and leave him the hell alone. That would have worked fine.
i've questioned js before and been wrong, but how is the $12m they're going to spend on tex for next season better than another year of salty at 1b and $12m for a pitcher (they need starting pitching more than anything).
i think this means goodbye to AJ for sure.
Or be put in his place by Andruw and his father again like he was last time Jones was a free agent. Not that I expect it to happen or anything, but it's not like Boras' first instincts havn't been trumped before.
Jason Schmidt (but not for about five years)
Vinny Castilla (expansion draft, but still)
ummm, I'm sure there are a couple more, but I'm drawing a blank right now. There are a lot more Wilson Betemits and David Nieds (lost in the expansion draft) in the record...
because no good pitchers sign 1-year $12 million dollar contracts
And who's the best pitcher available this offseason? (This is a serious question. Buerhle probably was, but who's best now?)
I just looked up who they gave up for Hudson, expecting to see a name like Haren or something. But wow, in retrospect that trade was pretty damn good. Schuerholtz knows what he's doing.
Zambrano, Carlos
The only ones people ever mention are Jason Schmidt, Jason Marquis, and the Ace of the Defending World Series Champions, the Man, the Myth, the Legend, Adam Wainwright.
Here is an attempt to think of some more. Justin Speier perhaps?
Freddy Garcia too.
Ugh, the Phillies would be in the playoffs if only...
Here is the link to the story.
Y'know, Wilson Betemit has a 116 OPS+ this year...
i dont know about good, but old pitchers like maddux/wells/clemens or others like that could be had for close to 1 year / 12 million.
always seemed to me that the best way to build a team is with pre-free agency talented guys like salty, mccann, escobar, francoer, and then spend big on marquee players. tex just isnt that guy to me.
Honestly, I think the wild card teams are in more trouble. The Mets have a 4.5 game cushion on the Braves, and they still have a better rotation than Atlanta. I just can't see the Braves putting together any sort of long, sustained winning streak with a back-end made up of Carlyle and Reyes.
Atlanta's line-up is very, very potent now. It would be fun to watch them if I didn't hate them.
What's the "strength of schedule" look like for the rest of the year?
Yeah, but that's all against the Braves.
All this does is prove to me Schuerholz is not infallible. I'm still scared.
That's "the surprisingly-effective Carlyle..." to you.
Right?
####, I'm worried. Omar's probably gonna get Sammy now.
If that's Omar's response, I'd like to reserve the right to change my mind on # 33 . . . .
Comes at a good time especially with the Mets deciding to stay within reach, and not getting healthier.
I think Daniels would do that for a D+ prospect. He might even be convinced to part with a little bit of Hicks' money to make it happen, but that might require a C- prospect instead.
Saltalamacchia obviously had more trade value than value to the Braves, so it makes perfect sense to move him. On the other prospects, I dunno, and I'd be quite worried if my team used Elvis Andrus as the #2 prospect in a trade, but Cox/Schuerholz have earned the benefit of the doubt for all eternity.
Very hard to fault Daniels either - with his (admittedly short) track record, one has to be skeptical of everything he does, but that's a major league ready hitter and a high ceiling prospect, plus arms. Can't ask for more from a deadline deal.
Good trade all around.
Though if he walks then they also get some good draft picks back too.
It's a good point too. Daniels needed this slam dunk trade because he has been fleeced oh so many times before. His track record is pretty piss poor right now.
Salty looks like a lock for a 800+ OPS from the Catcher's spot. that one is going to hurt
I'm also surprised the best reliever they could get was Ron Mahay, who's old and a FA after this season. Maybe if the reliever was a bit better this would have made the deal more even.
Jermaine Dye is really the only one he's rolled the dice on and lost by trading that amounted to much. Bring on Tex and watch the Mets soil themselves.
Not even close??? I should very much like to know the identity of a player with a four year track record up through the age of 27, as strong and consistent as Teixeira's has been from 2004-2007, who then went on to establish a MUCH higher ceiling. And don't give me the late '90s crop who did it through the magic of chemistry, either. I'm sure someone's done it, but it's pretty darned rare. At this point, we know who Mark Teixeira is and what he can do with a pretty high degree of confidence.
Teixeira might get a little better, but he's certainly "close" to his ceiling. Which is no criticism; he's outstanding. Saltalamacchia has a lot more room to grow (and, correspondingly, a lot more likelihood of failing to grow).
I still don't believe Stoneman offered Saunders. Kotchman and Santana maybe, but if he trades Saunders how exactly do the Angels get through the rest of this season with their current rotation? I know 2 things about Stoneman: He loves pitching, and he doesn't leak trade offers. I'm thinking the published rumors are guesswork on the part of reporters.
What about Jason Schmidt? Granted, he got a useful Denny Neagle out of it and it took 4-5 years and another team for Schmidt to come into his own but yeah, what about Jason?
The Braves clearly made themselves better in 2007, and Tex should help them for the next few years as well.
I'm still not seeing them overtaking the Mets-though the Beltran injury certainly doesn't help matters...
It isn't often one player can make the difference in a race. This might be that instance.......
Huh? On what are you basing these comments? How do you know he hasn't hit his ceiling?
The same thing was said about Schuerholz, and the rumors turned out to be right. So it was almost certainly Texas that was leaking them.
See, this -- I don't buy. There's no reason whatsoever to throw that out there and just assume Saltalamacchia has some hidden flaw that only master gemologist Schuerholz can spot. I love, though, how Braves' fans do this -- they laud Schuerholz and their scouts for drafting so well, and developing talent, and talk about how great all their prospects are, until the very day that one of them gets traded . . . at which time that prospect (unlike all the others, mind you, who are still all destined for superstardom) becomes certain to be a bum.
Unless he's Dye, or Schmidt, or Betamit, mind you. Sigh. The whole thing is overrated. Saltalamacchia might pan out; he might not. But it's not somehow a certainty now just because Schuerholz "knows" it or he wouldn't have traded him. He didn't trade Saltalamacchia because he "knows" something. He traded the kid because he has a surplus of young catchers, and he needed a first baseman like a Hummer needs gas.
As I said in the other thread, Schuerholz' record in this respect is quite good, and has been documented. That does not mean he is right in this case, but it should be considered.
I wish I had the time and desire to go back and find one of the various threads where you advocated trusting Minaya on questionable moves because of his track record.
Seriously, thi sis value for value, but the Braves are overpaying here. too many prospects, and too many high level prospects
Also, Teixeira was born the same year as a certain 1b for the Cardinals, so there's really no chance that he has "the best hitting tools of his generation."
I said that in the other thread, so I of course agree.
Not been following baseball for a week! had a couple of good cricket matches to watch!!
I don't think Sam is saying that Schuerholz doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt, just that there's no reason to assume that the fact that Schuerholz traded Salty means that he won't pan out. It is possible that both sides will benefit from the trade -- i.e., Teixiera will help the Braves, and Salty will turn into a good player.
Oh, I do trust Schuerholz based on his track record, and I think this was a good move. I just don't think Schuerholz's track record is any reason to suppose Saltalamacchia is flawed, or even overrated, as a prospect. I think you have to look at the circumstances of this deal on its own terms, and see that Daniels had a very valuable commodity that Schuerholz really wanted. It is more likely Schuerholz simply paid a high (though IMO reasonable) price for Teixeira, than that he paid a cheap (and flawed) price for him.
If they are having doubts about this trade, Braves' fans should absolutely give John Schuerholz the benefit of the doubt based on his track record. Just as I would give Omar Minaya the benefit of the doubt if he made a move I found questionable (as opposed to utterly moronic . . .), because he's done so well by us to date. Have I said anything to contradict that?
EDIT: What Yeaarrgghhhh said . . . .
Salty looks like a lock for a 800+ OPS from the Catcher's spot.
Start him a first base and leave him the hell alone. That would have worked fine.
A lock? I'm not sure about that. Salty's a hell of a prospect, but given JS/Cox's record on getting young players into the lineup and giving them consistent at-bats, I wouldn't rush to condemn this trade yet. I mean, it's not like Dusty Baker is running the ATL show.
Even if Salty turns out to be an all-star catcher, I think this is a good trade, esp. if they can re-sign Teixeira. It's certainly not a case of selling their future down the river. Regardless, you should work to improve your team now if you've got a contender on your hands.
I suspect JS has another move for a pitcher up his sleeve.
This seems a little ludicrous to me, but apparently the NY Post is reporting that the Rangers might consider sending Laird and a reliever to the Cubbies for Felix Pie. I don't see how that makes any sense for the Cubs without it being Gagne, and I don't see how the Rangers do it unless the reliever is Joaquin Benoit or Frankie Francisco or someone of that ilk.
Has Pie's stock dropped THAT much?
Guess this trade could've been worse -- assuming that Hanson isn't the other pitching prospect. The Braves are giving up a lot of talented prospects, but low-level ones. Andrus hasn't played above A-ball nor has he performed up to his tools, and Feliz, while reportedly having a great arm, has pitched all of 56 professional innings of rookie ball. Salty is a stud. I'm was hoping for a better arm than Mahay but what can you do.
I think he's been passed by Angel Pagan. Which would mean the Cubs, like the Braves, would be trading from depth to fix weakness.
Phil Rogers may just be blowing smoke (and despite not liking Pie as much as most, I hope he is) -- but Phil reported a Laird/Mahay for Pie deal being a possibility. That would be monumentally dumb trade -- and I think unlikely since the Padres were apparently told just 2-3 weeks ago that Pie was "as untouchable as untouchable gets". I don't agree with Pie being untouchable -- but I certainly wouldn't want a Laird/Mahay for him.
Also - I know he's a 1B/DH, so the bar is a bit higher... but I think people are confusing him with Pat Burrell (i.e., supposedly once in a generation hitters that haven't lived up to expectations).
He's played in 162 games each of hte last 2 seasons -- so he appears to be pretty durable. He's put up 103, 128, 146, 123, and 138 OPS+ in 4 1/2 seasons, with lines of:
.259/.331/.480 (age 23)
.281/.370/.560 (age 24)
.301/.379/.560 (age 25)
.282/.371/.514 (age 26)
.297/.397/.524 (so far this year at age 27).
Forgive me for lighting the match -- but a lot of folks seem to be undervaluing Teixeira... did you all overpay for him in fantasy baseball last year thinking he go from a OPS+ of 146 in 2005 to something otherworldly in 2006?
The kid can flat out hit. Good eye - but not Ensbergian has-to-sit-on-mistakes, good power, .283 lifetime hitter...
The Cubs don't need a 1B (or even a 3B -- though I bet he could handle the position as well as A-Ram) -- but if they did, I'd be willing to give the Rangers pretty much the pick of my farm system (say... Pie+Veal+whomever) for a hitter of his skills and age.
Melvin Nieves. All the rage. Traded as part of the McGriff deal
David Nied. Oh yes he was all the hoo-ha. Rob Neyer said so. Left available in the expansion draft.
Tony Tarasco. Traded as part of the package for Marquis Grissom.
Mike Kelly. Traded for Chad Fox and Ray King
Jason Schmidt. Traded to Pirates for Denny Neagle
Ron Wright. Went with Schmidt to Pirates for Neagle
Jermaine Dye. Traded to Royals for Michael Tucker Keith Lockhart
Bruce Chen. Traded for Andy Ashby
Jose Capellan. Traded for Danny Kolb
Andy Marte
Wilson Betemit
Was Jung Bong considered any good?
Adam Wainwright
Neagle gave couple of very good years for Schmidt. I think that was a good trade
Dye's the only move I'd count as a loss.
I agree on Salty; if the Braves didn't have McCann, they wouldn't be trading him. It's not that there's a flaw, just useable depth.
Were I another organization, I'd be wary of Braves pitching prospects, but maybe it's just that Schuerholz subscribes to TINSTAAPP.
And Jermaine Dye took two years before hitting his stride in KC. Meanwhile, the Braves were winning pennants and a World Series. I think they are over it.
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