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Monday, July 30, 2007

Robothal: Braves set to acquire Teixeira from Rangers

Saltalamacchia, Andrus, and two pitching prospects…pending review of medical records.

I’m guessing Harrison and someone else, given that Harrison is battling arm issues right now.

Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: July 30, 2007 at 02:26 PM | 207 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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101. Tanto Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:02 PM (#2461686)

Was Jung Bong considered any good?

He'd spent some time in the majors the season before the Braves traded him and was sort of average-ish. I seem to recall that he was well-regarded before that, but had sort of lost his luster by the time they traded him.

I keep going back and forth on this (the trade, not Bong).

102. bfan Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2461690)

It depends on your goals as a team, as it relates to the Marte trade. If the Braves do not eke out a play-off appearance this year wth Renteria, and Marte comes out to be a good MLB 3rd baseman, is that really a good trade for the Braves? Edgar's very good year last year made them...a cruddy team instead of a really cruddy team. His great year this year, if they do not make the play-offs (as of this minute, they are out) makes them, what a nice 85-77 team, instead of an 81-81 team? What is the goal?

103. Perros Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2461691)

In 10 years, no one besides Braves fans (and maybe a Dodger fan or two) will know who you're talking about when you mention Betemit and McBride.

104. zonk Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:05 PM (#2461693)

Are we just talking recent?

Us Cubs fans could add a few more names...

Turk Wendell + Yorkis Perez (for Damon Berryhill and mike bielecki in 92)

Micah Bowie + Ruben QUevedo + Joey Nation (for Jose Hernandez + Terry Mulholland).

I think it was the Baird regime (Schuerholz may have been scouting director, though) -- but there was also Jody Davis for Kevin Coffman and Kevin Blankenship, both of whom we were assured were top flight... of course, JD decided to quit hitting after going home to Atlanta, so we both shared the bad taste.

Of course, we did get Tyler Houston for something called Ismael Villegas, so it's not like ALL the prospects we've gotten from Atlanta haven't panned out.... Thanks for that Jeff Blauser guy, too -- tough to see why they decided to let him walk.

With VERY few exceptions -- the last 20 years haven't seen a whole lot of mistakes from the Braves when they decide whom to deal and whom to keep. Even Jason Schmidt -- they got a 20 win season from Denny Neagle... and it was the Giants, not the Pirates, that ultimately reaped Schimdt's best seasons. Of course, that's not to say the Bucs didn't enjoy their Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong...

105. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:09 PM (#2461699)

Teixeira is a 27-year-old with some of the best hitting tools of his generation.

Also, Teixeira was born the same year as a certain 1b for the Cardinals, so there's really no chance that he has "the best hitting tools of his generation."

If you plan on egregiously misrepresenting someone else's statement, I recommend not quoting them directly.

Not even close??? I should very much like to know the identity of a player with a four year track record up through the age of 27, as strong and consistent as Teixeira's has been from 2004-2007, who then went on to establish a MUCH higher ceiling.

Just going by Tex's comp list at B-R: Willie McCovey, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell. Bags and McCovey were better than Tex, but they both peaked in their early 30s after consistently good production through their 20s. Willie Stargell. Albert Belle, though he peaked at 27-30. Derrek Lee, though his new peak is yet to be established, and might be cut short by injury.

Comps exist. Whether Teixeira has room to grow or not is a subjective question - watching him hit, I think he's got some truly great years ahead of him, better than he's done so far. He certainly has the tools to do it.

Power peaks later than other tools. 1B defense peaks later than other positions. Teixeira looks to me like a guy who's got a couple MVP seasons in him.

106. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2461714)

If you plan on egregiously misrepresenting someone else's statement, I recommend not quoting them directly.

Sure, whatever. let me rephrase -- there is no chance that Teixiera has "some of the best hitting tools of his generation" (whatever the hell that means) given that he's the same age as Pujols, and close in age to Miguel Cabrera.

107. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2461719)

Power peaks later than other tools. 1B defense peaks later than other positions. Teixeira looks to me like a guy who's got a couple MVP seasons in him.

I know that scouts have raved about the guys ability to hit since he was drafted, and the way he has been talked about, by everyone, I think that you're probably right, that he's got room to grow based on what he's done so far.

I don't know if he'll do it, but I absolutely agree that he could take it to another level, even if he's already 27 and he has to decline next year because Bill James said so.

108. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:23 PM (#2461721)

Mark Teixeira: Not as good a hitter as Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera.

I know when I'm beat.

Edit: Just to add some content - as CP says, when scouts talk about Teixeira's hitting tools, they use the same sorts of superlatives as when talking about Cabrera. Teixeira hasn't pulled off the same sort of numbers, but that's the language used to describe him.

109. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2461728)

I think he's been passed by Angel Pagan. Which would mean the Cubs, like the Braves, would be trading from depth to fix weakness.

110. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:31 PM (#2461736)

Texeira went to georgia tech, not Georgia. So it is sort of a homecoming.
Another thing this says is that the Braves really believe in Escobar/Lillibridge.
And looking ahead, this might be the best way to replce the power void next year, when Andruw leaves

111. Perros Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:34 PM (#2461738)

Who will play center for the Braves next season?

112. Moses Taylor demands to be housewarmed Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:36 PM (#2461743)

And this is a shame. Pie hasn't looked great or even all that good during his time in the bigs, but his upside is much greater than Pagan's. I'm not sure about the fascination with Pagan. The guy is really just a decent fourth outfielder, yet the guys who manage the teams he plays for seem driven to include him as a regular as often as possible. I guess it's the speed, because he's certainly not a very good fielder, doesn't hit for much power, and has a weak OBP for a guy who doesn't go yard that often.

I really hope the Cubs aren't foolish enough to ship Pie off with the idea that Pagan is their centerfielder. I'd rather have another Corey Patterson situation than see that happen.

Um, they're not. Whoever said that initial comment about Pagan overtaking Pie was talking out of their ass. Pagan is being used *exactly* as you said he should be-decent 4th OF. He starts in CF against righties and gets more starts in RF than he should on days when Cliff Floyd is getting re-duct taped. The Cubs don't think of him as a full time OF, otherwise he would have already gotten that chance this year (the everyday CFs this season have been Soriano, Pie and Jones; Pagan's never held that gig).

And zonk, you should know better than quoting Phil Rogers for trade rumors. Shame on you.

113. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:36 PM (#2461744)

I think Francoeur has to be a dark horse candidate for CF. Otherwise it is going to be Blanco/Lillibridge. or a midseason callup for Brandon Jones/Schafer/Loadenthal

114. Sam M. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2461747)

a four year track record up through the age of 27, as strong and consistent as Teixeira's has been from 2004-2007

You gave me:

1) Willie McCovey -- who had nothing like a "strong and consistent track record" through age 27. To the contrary; he'd been platooned with Orlando Cepeda for a lot of that time, never betting more than 328 ABs in a single year until he was 25, and getting more than 500 ABs only ONCE (age 25 season) before his age 27 season in 1965. McCovey had established no "consistent track record" from which he departed thereafter; when he got his chance to be a full-time player, he showed what an awesome player he was.

2) Mark McGwire -- I also specifically asked to leave out those who got their boost through the magic of the needle. Next.

3) Jeff Bagwell -- Are we supposed to ignore the fact that Bagwell had his greatest, most productive season at the age of 26? The one where he won the NL MVP, had the 223 OPS+, the career high (by over a 100 points) in slugging? When exactly did he establish a much higher ceiling during his post-27 years?

4) Willie Stargell -- Here's a pretty good one. Stargell did get a lot better, and develop his best power, after age 27.

But even here, Pops helps establish a key point I was trying to make by talking about Teixeira's consistent track record. Stargell hadn't done anything like what Teixeira has done by way of consistency in Texas -- in fact, he'd been kind of inconsistent his first few seasons, with his best work coming in 1966 (age 26), then dipping again in 1967. It is the very fact of Teixeira's consistency at the level he's established that makes me believe he is less likely to depart (either way, up or down) very much. He has found his level, and it's very, very good and productive. That's why I asked for someone not just who found another level after only being so-so, but someone who did so after being as numbingly consistent as Teixeira. You get what you get from him -- which is, by the way, very valuable in and of itself.

115. Tanto Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2461748)

Who will play center for the Braves next season?

Your guess is as good as mine.

They'll make a cursory attempt to sign Andruw, but after Boras laughs in their face, they'll settle for one of the tier-two center field options: Roward, Cameron, or Byrnes.

I can't imagine they see Harris as a real option, and Jordan Schafer's probably not ready. Brandon Jones is more of a corner guy.

116. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2461750)

What about Jason Schmidt? Granted, he got a useful Denny Neagle out of it and it took 4-5 years and another team for Schmidt to come into his own but yeah, what about Jason?

Instinctually this feels a lot like the Jason Schmidt deal to me, only for hitters. I remember how, back in '96, JS was just fleeced, COMPLETELY ROBBED because not only did he send Schmidt, who was JUST AS GOOD AS NEAGLE, he threw in can't miss tools prospect Ron Wright just for fun! IDIOT!

117. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2461754)

####### Braves.

you're still not taking back the division!

118. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:45 PM (#2461756)

Sam -

Your distinction between Stargell and Tex is really splitting hairs.

103, 128, 146, 123, 136
103, 123, 129, 164, 136

Yes, there aren't a lot of players like Teixeira. It's not common for a guy to have hitting tools like his.

To be clear, becase someone will misconstrue this: obviously I'm not saying Teixeira is Stargell. I was asked for a comp. I gave several. Sam construed his restrictions very strictly. Stargell still fits.

119. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2461761)

Robothal is reporting the Braves have taken the lead on Dotel. Damn the torpedos, full-speed ahead, huh?

120. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2461762)

I wouldn't be shocked to see Harris get at least a platoon shot at CF if Andruw leaves. He and Lillibridge/B. Jones. Of course, the obvious thing to do would be to move Freedom over and sign Adam Dunn.

121. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2461763)

Maybe we can trade for JD Drew for RF next season. If the Sox will pick up as much of his contract as they did Renteria's, it could work.

122. Sam M. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2461764)

Your distinction between Stargell and Tex is really splitting hairs.

OK, point taken, re Stargell. And I agree with you that Teixeira is uncommon. But a lot of uncommon hitters -- outstanding ones, even -- establish an ability level and maintain it (more or less) without suddenly bursting through to a new ceiling. It is especially unusual for them to do it -- if not unprecedented -- when they have been as consistent for as long at the prior level as Teixeira has. And it would be even more surprising for Teixeira to do it now, I think, moving to a less hospitable offensive environment. We'll see if he moves, and where, a year and a half from now, of course.

But if Braves' fans are depending on him to be Willie Stargell, good luck. My point is that the odds are he's much more likely to be the same Mark Teixeira he's been in Texas. And that's pretty darned good as it is.

123. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2461767)

Who will play center for the Braves next season?

Langerhans could probably have handled center defensively, but he was given away. Did the Braves ever get their PTBNL?

124. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:55 PM (#2461769)

If Ryan Langerhans were still the LF the Braves would not be trading for Teixeira because they would be 10 games out, or more. Willie Harris, alien possession notwithstanding, has been a HUGE plus for the 2007 squad.

125. Calvin Schiraldi Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:55 PM (#2461770)

Pagan hasn't passed Pie on the Cubs' prospect depth chart or whatever imaginary thing we're calling it. Pagan is in Chicago to be a platoon partner with Jock and late inning fill-in for Cliff Floyd. Pie's in Des Moines to play every day. He's far more likely to end up with another shot at the CF job this season (when Jones goes back in the crapper) than he is to get traded for Gerald Laird.

I think, had Jason Kendall not shown some signs of actually hitting a little (five hits in his last three starts) and/or Henry Blanco had a setback on his rehab in Peoria, that you may have seen the Cubs go after Laird.

If the Cubs trade an OFer tonight or tomorrow, it's going to be Matt Murton. Lou seems to have no use for him.

126. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:57 PM (#2461773)

Who will play center for the Braves next season?

I've always felt that Mike Cameron would be perfect for this team.

127. Jeff K. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2461774)

Back on topic: Hooray!

128. Conor Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2461775)

It is the very fact of Teixeira's consistency at the level he's established that makes me believe he is less likely to depart (either way, up or down) very much. He has found his level, and it's very, very good and productive. That's why I asked for someone not just who found another level after only being so-so, but someone who did so after being as numbingly consistent as Teixeira. You get what you get from him -- which is, by the way, very valuable in and of itself.

Sam, I know this isn't about Tex, but correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you of the opinion (at least before the season started) that you believed David Wright had the chance to step up his offensive game more from where he currently is? I seem to remember you being against some people here who thought it was possible that Wright had plateaued at his current offensive level. If I am misremembering the discussion or your argument than I apologize, but if what I have said so far is correct, whatever you think about their ability to improve, wouldn't you have to think the same for Wright and Tex? Wright has been amazingly consistent (for those unfamiliar with his stat line, Wright had a 138 OPS+ in 2005, and a 136 in both 06 and so far in 07); is it because Wright is younger? I imagine thats what it is, but even so, it he has been so consistent that I think he has pretty much reached the level he's going to be at for the next 6-8 years. I hate to take the discussion away from the trade, but I was just wondering what accounts for the difference in your opinion on Tex and Wright.

129. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:59 PM (#2461778)

But if Braves' fans are depending on him to be Willie Stargell, good luck. My point is that the odds are he's much more likely to be the same Mark Teixeira he's been in Texas. And that's pretty darned good as it is.

That's fair.

I think the converse, though, is that Rangers fans are counting on Saltalamacchia to be Jorge Posada, and that's a lot less likely than Tex being Stargell.

When you trade for prospects, you expect to get the guy with the best upside. I much prefer Teixeira's upside. His chance based on his tools - not his expection or certainty - to put up several MVP seasons improves his value a good chunk over his baseline average projection.

As I said, I like this trade for all involved. I'm not trying to argue for the brilliance of Schuerholz in ripping off another GM or something. (See #50, I like the deal for Daniels, too.) I'm just saying that I think that one important factor in this deal is that Teixeira has upside beyond his performance, and I thought that his tools were being ignored in the debate until I posted.

130. Sam M. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2461787)

Wright has been amazingly consistent (for those unfamiliar with his stat line, Wright had a 138 OPS+ in 2005, and a 136 in both 06 and so far in 07); is it because Wright is younger? I imagine thats what it is, but even so, it he has been so consistent that I think he has pretty much reached the level he's going to be at for the next 6-8 years. I hate to take the discussion away from the trade, but I was just wondering what accounts for the difference in your opinion on Tex and Wright.

I am coming around to that view on Wright as well. He is younger, which leaves more room for growth, but the longer he stays where he is, the more consistent he is at that level, the more you just have to say (IMO), "That's who this player is." There comes a point where you have to respect what the track record is telling you. In both Wright's and Teixeira's cases, it's an excellent track record. And as I said, the consistency itself -- the predictability of almost KNOWING you're going to get outstanding production before the season even starts -- is awfully valuable.

131. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2461789)

When you trade for prospects, you expect to get the guy with the best upside. I much prefer Teixeira's upside. His chance based on his tools - not his expection or certainty - to put up several MVP seasons improves his value a good chunk over his baseline average projection

There is also the salary bit. tex is going to be paid $10mil plus, while Salty is on league minimum.
Zambrano to texas if Hicks ponies up?
Also Salty is the top catching prospect these days, and he has proven that he can hit in the majors. Thats very good value in return

132. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:05 PM (#2461791)

Willie Harris, alien possession notwithstanding, has been a HUGE plus for the 2007 squad.

Along with Diaz. Between the two of them, that has to be one of the most productive platoons in recent memory. I was talking about CF for 2008.

133. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2461794)

Hearing mention of Jung Bong reminds me of that great old Primer thread, with the fake headlines:

Braves trade Bong for Leiter, later see their error

134. Conor Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2461795)

I am coming around to that view on Wright as well. He is younger, which leaves more room for growth, but the longer he stays where he is, the more consistent he is at that level, the more you just have to say (IMO), "That's who this player is." There comes a point where you have to respect what the track record is telling you. In both Wright's and Teixeira's cases, it's an excellent track record.

The one thing I forgot to mention was I was strictly talking of Wright as a hitter. As a fielder and base runner he has improved by leaps and bounds.

Who would have thought after the April he had (240/370/311 and no HR) that he would end up with his best season? But, knock on wood, it seems clear that is going to be the case. He has a chance to steal 30 bases.

135. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:22 PM (#2461802)

I was talking about CF for 2008.

I know. Generally speaking the Braves are good at identifying Chuck Thomas freakery so I don't think Harris will be a real candidate for CF in 2008, but you have to take the possibility into consideration considering his outbreak in LF this year. Still, even now the team seems to realize that he's way over his head, which is why he hasn't taken Diaz' playing time completely.

For 2008 I'd put the favorites for CF in Atlanta as:

Andruw -- yeah, I think he'll re-sign
Francoeur -- the obvious place for him if Andruw leaves
FA X -- Rowand, Cameron, etc.
Harris/B. Jones

136. JuanGone..except1game Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2461804)

Along with Diaz. Between the two of them, that has to be one of the most productive platoons in recent memory. I was talking about CF for 2008.

The 2006 Benuardo Perezssard platoon for the Indians might take exception to that.

137. Corn On Ty Cobb Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2461805)

That'd be pretty awesome if the Braves were able to swing deals for Teixeira and Dotel on the same day.

138. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2461806)

I hope this works out better for the Rangers than the last time they traded a power-hitting first baseman in his mid-20s for a catcher.

139. Colin Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:32 PM (#2461812)

Who will play center for the Braves next season?

I'm guessing Willie Harris, either full- or part-time.

Or, Andruw sings a one year deal to try to build his value back up.

140. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2461814)

For some reason, i also thought Harris was older than he is. He's only 29 (my age)

141. jcallicutt Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:39 PM (#2461821)

Jeff Bagwell -- Are we supposed to ignore the fact that Bagwell had his greatest, most productive season at the age of 26? The one where he won the NL MVP, had the 223 OPS+, the career high (by over a 100 points) in slugging? When exactly did he establish a much higher ceiling during his post-27 years?

If Tex stagnates in the same manner that Bagwell did, I'll be a very happy Braves fan.

All snark aside, I tend to agree that Tex is what he is and probably won't get much better. I mean, he's already pretty dang good. He may have an outlier year where he hits 50+ HR, but I'll settle for a steady .375/.550.

142. Danny Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2461829)

I think using Teixeira's BB-Ref comps is deceiving, as he's played in a much higher run environment than nearly all of them (which BB-Ref doesn't adjust for). His top PECOTA comp is Dave Hollins, with his top 5 rounded out with a mixed bag of Eddie Murray, Bobby Bonilla, Berkman, and Nate Colbert. He could gain more power and become a superstar, but I'd say it's much more likely he continues just being a star.

And while Teixeira's performance upside might be higher than Salty's (questionable in my opinion), the salary and service time issues make Salty's total value upside much higher than Teixeira's.

143. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2461840)

I'm with Danny on Tex.
****
Other rumored deals: Kyle Lohse to Philly for Matt Maloney, Luis Castillo to the Mets for Drew Butera and Dustin Martin

144. CrosbyBird Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:04 PM (#2461853)

The one thing I forgot to mention was I was strictly talking of Wright as a hitter. As a fielder and base runner he has improved by leaps and bounds.

The way I could imagine Wright elevating his play is by figuring his way out of slumps more quickly. In 2006, he had a rough August that pulled everything way down. In 2007, it was April. If he can go a full season without having a month where he's a below average hitter, his numbers will look better but he'll be essentially the same player most of the time.

Also, he's only 24 and I think he'll add a little more power as he ages.

Put those two together, if it happens, and it's not outrageous for him to have a 40 HR year.

That's why I'm not giving up on Wright becoming even better offensively than he is right now. This is the second year in a row where he's had a very rough patch and lifted himself out of it.

Who would have thought after the April he had (240/370/311 and no HR) that he would end up with his best season? But, knock on wood, it seems clear that is going to be the case. He has a chance to steal 30 bases.

If he does a little bit better than he's paced in the power department, he'll be a 30-30 player this year. He's currently projected to 28 HR and around 36 SB.

145. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2461857)

Alfonso Soriano--slugging .524

Carlos Lee--slugging .534

Dmitri Young--slugging .500

Three guys who were ok to sometimes less than ok in the AL. Ridiculously small sample size. But the signs are promising for Mark T.

146. Perros Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2461859)

I really like Mike Cameron, he's a very underrated guy (107 OPS+ career, nothing lower than a 104+ over the past nine seasons), and he's from Ga., but he'll be 35 in January.

I don't know that he'd be worth the money it'll take to sign him.

147. haven Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2461865)

Back on topic: Hooray!

To get back off topic, I just saw reports at FOX of Lohse to the Phils for Matt Maloney and Castilla to the Mets for Drew Butera and Dustin Martin. Lohse deal seems done. Not as sure about Castilla.

148. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2461867)

Kyle Lohse to Philly for Matt Maloney

Interesting. Maloney is one of our top prospects, in the top 7 or 8 pitching prospects (meaning the top 7 or 8 Phillies prospects overall, since we have no hitting prospects). He has great stats this year in Reading, although a 3.94 ERA plus 15 more unearned runs.

Lohse has been above average ever since he's been on the Reds. The Reds have done a good job acquiring starting pitchers who have some unimpressive MLB experience and then become a lot better on the Reds. However, he's only signed for this season. I don't like the sound of that.

But then again, TINSTAAPP.

149. Conor Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2461868)

Also, he's only 24 and I think he'll add a little more power as he ages.

Put those two together, if it happens, and it's not outrageous for him to have a 40 HR year.

150. AROM Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:46 PM (#2461934)

That's why I'm not giving up on Wright becoming even better offensively than he is right now. This is the second year in a row where he's had a very rough patch and lifted himself out of it.

I just don't see Wright developing much more power than he's shown so far. He just isn't the physical specimen that most of the top power hitters of today are. But he might be able to top 40 in a career year, and I think he's got room to improve his overall offense. If he does I suspect his peak will look like that of Larry Jones.

151. Perros Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:57 PM (#2461947)

David Wright's a nice player, but he's no Chipper Jones.

152. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:05 PM (#2461953)

David Wright's a nice player, but he's no Chipper Jones.

Yes, you're right. So far he is much better.

1995 23 ATL NL 524 .265 .353 .450 OPS+ 109
1996 24 ATL NL 598 .309 .393 .530 OPS+ 136
1997 25 ATL NL 597 .295 .371 .479 OPS+ 119
1998 26 ATL NL 601 .313 .404 .547 OPS +146

DW
2004 21 263 .293 .332 .525 118
2005 22 575 .306 .388 .523 138
2006 23 582 .311 .381 .531 136
2007 24 393 .298 .381 .504 136

Add in better D

Not saying that Wright will have the big jump that Chipper had at age 26 (and continued), but Wright doesn't have to jump as much

153. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:06 PM (#2461954)

You certainly can't argue that Wright is potentially Chipper but that Tex is not potentially Pops Stargell.

154. Mike A Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:11 PM (#2461959)

Chipper had to deal with coming back from a severe injury early in his career. Cost him a year and took him a while to get back in gear.

155. JPWF13

Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:15 PM (#2461966)

Alfonso Soriano--slugging .524

Carlos Lee--slugging .534

Dmitri Young--slugging .500

Three guys who were ok to sometimes less than ok in the AL. Ridiculously small sample size. But the signs are promising for Mark T.

Carlos Lee best three years in AL: 123, 119, 116
Carlos Lee in NL: 128, 125, 110

A. Soriano best three years in AL: 131, 128, 110
Soriano in NL: 132, 120,

Dmitri: best three years in AL: 142, 113, 111
Dmitri in NL: 134, 119, 114

which all tells us????

156. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2461973)

By the way, if the Dotel rumour is true, I will really start doubting JS.
He might be pulling a Mark Davis

157. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2461979)

First of all, let me say how surprised I am that Young ever put up a 142 OPS+.

Next, I don't think you can prove or disprove anything looking at one or two players, on a year to year basis. Stats don't translate straight from AAA to the Majors (Brandon Larson), or from Japan to the Majors (Kei Igawa), nor should they from the NL to the AL. Things like health, condition, and mental stability (Dmitri) also change. But if I were a betting man, I would guess that Tex's park adjusted numbers go up because he will be in a deeper lineup and in a weaker league with less of an idea of how to approach him then the teams that have played him his entire career.

158. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:27 PM (#2461983)

I guess thats the plus side. The braves lineup for the next 2 months will be one for the ages

159. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:30 PM (#2461986)

Dotel doesn't make a ton of sense unless theres another move to come. Who is the odd man out? Mahay has a spot guaranteed. Bobby loves Yates, Paronto, and Moylan. Additionally, Paronto has been untouchable for a while and Moylan has been the best reliever all season. Villarreal has certainly earned a spot and seems to be the designated longman. Soriano and Wickman aren't going anywhere.

I feel like JS has to be making a third move where another team wants a reliever.

160. flournoy Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:37 PM (#2461992)

Yates sucks. Whether he's loved or not, I hope he's the odd man out here.

161. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2461997)

ESPN is reporting that this is done deal, pending physicals.

162. Corn On Ty Cobb Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:40 PM (#2461999)

The Kansas City Star is reporting it's Davies for Dotel:

The Royals appeared to ready to trade veteran closer Octavio Dotel to the Atlanta Braves on Monday afternoon for right-handed starter Kyle Davies.

Neither club has yet offered official confirmation, although several sources indicated a deal was tentatively in place.

...

The holdup appears to be on the Braves’ end and concerns their ability to work out final details on a trade earlier in the day in which they acquired first baseman Mark Teixeira and reliever Ron Mahay from the Rangers for catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus and two pitching prospects.

163. Jose Canusee Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:43 PM (#2462003)

If Dusty Baker gets hired to manage the Rangers, Neftali Feliz will eventually turn into the good-field OPS sinkhole infielder that his name has destined him to be, rather than a pitcher.

164. CrosbyBird Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2462005)

I am not sure how Citi Field is going to play, but I would be pretty surprised if he hit 40 HR in Shea. Of course, he only has one more year in Shea, but I mean if he played the rest of his career here. Its a tough place for a righty to hit homers. Also, whats his career high in HR, 27? I think the guy has plenty of power and anyone could go crazy in one season, but I think he is more of a 30 hr a guy year, 35 in his best years.

CitiField has the same dimensions as Shea. The wind may be different, but the distances are all the same.

Last year Wright hit 20 HR in the first half and then his power went on vacation. His career high is 27 but that's at age 22. If he manages to avoid having a power drought for a month one of these years, he's a 30-35 HR hitter. A spike season over 40 wouldn't be outrageous. Think Chipper 1999.

I feel the same way about Reyes and a 30 HR season. I don't expect 30 HR power but I think he can have a season where everything goes right and he does it.

David Wright's a nice player, but he's no Chipper Jones.

Wright:
21 2004 .293/.332/.525 118 OPS+ (283 PA)
22 2005 .306/.388/.523 138
23 2006 .311/.381/.531 136
24 2007 .298/.381/.504 136 (452 PA and counting)
25 2008 ????

Chipper:
21 1993 .667/.750/1.000 362! OPS+ (4 PA)
22 1994 no PA
23 1995 .265/.353/.450 109
24 1996 .309/.393/.530 136
25 1997 .295/.371/.479 119

Chipper had a big leap forward at age 26, which you obviously can't predict for Wright, but through age 24, Wright is the better hitter. I don't remember much of Chipper's defense, so I might be underrating him in his early career. Chipper was a good baserunner but Wright is certainly comparable if not better.

Chipper was also pretty durable until his age 32 season; Wright has been durable but a lot can happen in 7 more years. Obviously if Wright has the career path of Chipper Jones Met fans will be pretty happy. But in terms of what Wright has done so far, it is not outside the realm of possibility.

165. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2462011)

Yates was pretty damn good till BC decided to use him seven times in nine days before the ASB. He's been shot ever since. Cox likes him. Probably the reason why he ran Kali out there so often.

Some guy at Yahoo is reporting the Braves are talking to the Reds about Arroyo. The Dotel acquisition makes more sense now because Krivsky will most certainly want a reliever in any package for Arroyo.

166. VegasRobb Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:53 PM (#2462019)

Dotel steps in for Wickman?

167. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2462023)

The Kansas City Star is reporting it's Davies for Dotel:

Whoa, for the Royals it's just like the Burgos for Bannister trade, but slightly more significant.

168. Shibal Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:03 PM (#2462025)

How good is Davies? I just know of his suckiness this year...does he have potential besides that?

169. CrosbyBird Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2462028)

You certainly can't argue that Wright is potentially Chipper but that Tex is not potentially Pops Stargell.

Wright (24) is three years younger than Tex (27) and that's a huge difference this early in their careers. Stargell also showed a taste of what was to come in his age 26 season, hasn't had a season that good yet.

Wright has just over 2000 PA so far in the majors and was 21 years old in his first season. Tex has over 3000 PA and has spent more time establishing his current level of production than Wright.

I wouldn't be unhappy having Tex's age 28 season playing for a contract though. This guy is the real deal as a player offensively and defensively. He's an all-star and that's pretty good.

The difference between a very good player and a HOF is making the leap from a prospect that realizes major league success to an MVP candidate. Wright hasn't made that leap yet. Tex hasn't. Chipper did. Stargell did.

I don't know how you can predict the players that are going to make that leap. Sometimes a guy seems to put it all together and then collapses like Edgardo Alfonzo. Sometimes he makes the leap and stays there for years like Chipper Jones. And sometimes the guy shows great potential and doesn't get much better like Scott Rolen 23-28.

I like Wright's chances a little better because he's younger, but it's crazy to expect that sort of boost in production.

170. Sam M. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2462029)

CitiField has the same dimensions as Shea. The wind may be different, but the distances are all the same.

The biggest issue is going to be visibility. Shea has bad lighting for night games; Citifield (I assume) is going to change that and give hitters a better shot. How (or if) this would affect any particular hitter obviously remains to be seen.

171. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2462032)

How good is Davies? I just know of his suckiness this year...does he have potential besides that?

Davies still has potential. He throws hard and has three pitches. But he gets really nibbly sometimes which leads to walks and then having to pitch to the middle of the plate. He's still only 23. I've soured on him as a fan, but for a few months of Dotel it's not a bad return.

172. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2462033)

How good is Davies? I just know of his suckiness this year...does he have potential besides that?

Looks like he should be a good ML pitcher, but has mental issues. Straightish upper-90s fastball, good slider, good curve, decent change.
he has the entire arsenal. Just needs to stop beating himself before he even gets on the mound

173. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:15 PM (#2462041)

Ever since Davies had that torn groin muscle last summer he hasn't gotten anyone out. He has decent stuff so maybe someone can fix him, but it doesn't look like it the Braves. So if JS can get something useful for him, well, so long Kyle.

174. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:24 PM (#2462051)

Looks like he should be a good ML pitcher, but has mental issues. Straightish upper-90s fastball, good slider, good curve, decent change, he has the entire arsenal. Just needs to stop beating himself before he even gets on the mound

I'm sure hanging out with Zack Greinke will help his mental poise.

175. J. Sosa Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:24 PM (#2462052)

176. Sam M. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:30 PM (#2462057)

Steve Phillips just picked the Braves to win the NL East. You're doomed.

177. J. Sosa Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:35 PM (#2462063)

Hopefully Phillips will change his mind if the Castillo trade goes down.

178. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:51 PM (#2462086)

Maybe I missed it somewhere upthread, but who says the Braves plan on keeping Tex past this year? I see no reason why they could not take a shot this year with Tex, and then shop him this winter. Say Tex helps them make the playoffs this year, and then they flip him to someone with the cash to extend him this winter, say the Angels. I believe that's a far more realistic scenario then having him for a year and couple months and then letting him go for draft picks.

Your mistake is assuming the Braves can't afford to extend him. After 2007 the Braves have Andruw Jones' $14 mil/year coming off of the books. After 2008 they have Mike Hampton's $8-17 mil/year (depending on how you do the deferment math.) If they want to extend Mark Teixeira, they can.

179. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:56 PM (#2462095)

Davies for Dotel is being reported as a done deal.
I am not digging this

180. The Rocky Colavito Revue Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:58 PM (#2462098)

While I think Salty is a heck of a catch, doesn't this devalue Max Ramierez? Ramierez has really got to be getting tired of being behind people at C: McCann, Salty, Victor Martinez, Garko and Soppach.

181. Perros Posted: July 30, 2007 at 09:59 PM (#2462099)

You can pull up their stats and say Wright is better at a similar stage of career, and you probably have a case.

But as even AROM stated, he's not the physical specimen that's likely to jump into Chipper Jones territory over the rest of his career. AROM did say peak, but even that's a pretty high standard to reach.

Wright's been very good so far, but he'd be very fortunate to have the career Jones has had.

182. GordonShumway Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:00 PM (#2462101)

question for all: i used to read this site religiously a few years back but have been out of the loop as of late. the site's sure changed a lot.

one of my favorite parts of primer was the lounge, but i can't find it. does it exist anymore? and if so how do you get to it?

thanks

183. Chipper Jonestown Massacre Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:04 PM (#2462110)

Dotel to Atlanta?
Do tell...

184. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:04 PM (#2462111)

one of my favorite parts of primer was the lounge, but i can't find it. does it exist anymore? and if so how do you get to it?

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/forums/viewforum/79/

185. GordonShumway Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:10 PM (#2462119)

thanks!

186. zonk Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:15 PM (#2462123)

Looks like he should be a good ML pitcher, but has mental issues. Straightish upper-90s fastball, good slider, good curve, decent change.
he has the entire arsenal. Just needs to stop beating himself before he even gets on the mound

I don't know why, but Kyle Davies reminds me a bit of Matt Belisle. His stock as really fallen the last season and a half - a rare case of the Braves not dealing someone at peak value.

Still - this is the right kind of trade for the Royals.

187. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2462133)

Unless someone is gonna be DL'd the Braves are one arm heavy in the bullpen with no obvious candidate to be sent down. Paging Wayne Krivsky...

188. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:25 PM (#2462141)

As a Phillies supporter I recommend that the Braves trade Octavio Dotel to the Phillies for Rod Barajas. You need an experienced hand backing up McCann, not Branyan Whatever. This seems like a no-brainer to me.

189. Chipper Jonestown Massacre Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:25 PM (#2462142)

Ascanio???

190. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:26 PM (#2462144)

Ascanio gets sent down for Mahay. Who goes to give Dotel a roster spot?

191. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:28 PM (#2462146)

"As a Phillies supporter I recommend that the Braves trade Octavio Dotel to the Phillies for Rod Barajas. You need an experienced hand backing up McCann, not Branyan Whatever. This seems like a no-brainer to me."

Gillick would insist on including Carlos Carrasco though. Would you sign off on that?

192. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:29 PM (#2462148)

Did they recall Ascanio when they DFA'd Ledezma? If so, he's the obvious demotion. And again, don't be surprised if Atlanta goes with 13 pitchers.

193. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:30 PM (#2462149)

heh Crispix. Thats a gracious offer, but we wouldn't rob a division rival blind like that. Won't be cricket ( well, its not! )
Stand Pat could have offered Cardena to the Royals for Dotel!

IJR, I strongly smell a yates to the DL move coming.
There was talk of a trade for Arroyo, but the price was really scary ( Jones + Hanson + ML reliever )

194. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:32 PM (#2462153)

Gillick would insist on including Carlos Carrasco though. Would you sign off on that?

I would not be OK with trading any pitching prospect either to or from the Braves, given their track record. Established players only.

195. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:32 PM (#2462154)

Did they recall Ascanio when they DFA'd Ledezma? If so, he's the obvious demotion. And again, don't be surprised if Atlanta goes with 13 pitchers.

No can do. They are adding 3 players to the 25 man roster ( 4 if you count Pena ). Ascanio and Salty are taken off. But we still need to get rid of 2 people. Logical candidates seem to be Franco and someone in the bullpen DL-ed

196. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:35 PM (#2462158)

I think they'll stick with twelve pitchers, so that means a DL or another trade.

197. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:38 PM (#2462161)

Three players? Teixeira, Mahay and Dotel? Plus Pena? So Saltalamacchia is gone, Davies is gone, one of Thorman or Franco is gone, and one of the remaining relievers has to go. How does Ascanio enter the equation?

198. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:38 PM (#2462162)

Thor probably gets the axe before Franco. Didn't BC talk about getting Franco ABs so he can be the designated PHer later in the season? The bench is looking like Pena, Diaz/Harris, Escobar/KJ, Franco, and Woodward.

199. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2462165)

There was talk of a trade for Arroyo, but the price was really scary ( Jones + Hanson + ML reliever )

That's just a stupid request. Bowdenesque.

200. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2462168)

Ascanio was called up for Ledezma. He gets sent down for Mahay, Tex takes Salty's spot, Pena takes Franco or Thor's spot, where does Dotel go? Davies was sent down a couple weeks ago. Reyes replaced him.

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