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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Robothal: These things will happen this season

The economy will help flood the trade market
One reason the Red Sox showed restraint in free agency was the their belief that teams such as the Padres and Blue Jays could engage in massive salary dumps if they perform poorly and revenues plummet.

The Tigers’ season-ticket base has been cut almost in half, and a number of other teams also are bracing for attendance drops. But if trade talks this spring are any indication, deals will be difficult to consummate even for teams that are willing to help defray a player’s salary.

Phillies outfielder Geoff Jenkins, Angels outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. and Nationals outfielder Austin Kearns are among the players who could be had at little cost, yet their respective teams have been unable to find takers.

The demand will be greater if players of higher quality — Peavy, Halladay, Tigers outfielder Magglio Ordonez, A’s outfielder Matt Holliday — become available.

...

A-Rod will not make it through the season
A-Rod will work his tail off to recover from hip surgery, making it back by May 1, faster than his doctors predicted. Chances are, though, that Rodriguez will be a diminished player — a development that will drive him nuts.

Persevering in a pennant race would make Rodriguez a more sympathetic figure; he cannot be any less of one. But remember, A-Rod still must undergo a second, more extensive surgery. And his resolve would benefit no one if he is a significantly lesser version of himself.

Come July, the Yankees might look more seriously at a temporary replacement such as the Mariners’ Adrian Beltre. And A-Rod might abandon his plan to wait until the end of the season to undergo his second surgery.

Other predictions: Manny will be a pain in the ass, the WBC will get blamed for every injury, the Nats will draft and sign Strasburg and Sheffield and Johnson will reach their milestones. And Peter Angelos will sell the Orioles.

Okay, I made the last one up.

But I can dream!

Gamingboy Posted: March 31, 2009 at 03:44 PM | 34 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Crashburn Alley Posted: March 31, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3120564)
These things will happen this season


That's either an extremely lazy title... or an extremely pretentious title.
   2. Crispix Attacks Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:06 PM (#3120569)
Persevering in a pennant race would make Rodriguez a more sympathetic figure; he cannot be any less of one.

Nope! The media treating Rodriguez as a sympathetic figure would make Rodriguez a more sympathetic figure. There's no other factors involved.
   3. OCD SS Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM (#3120573)
One reason the Red Sox showed restraint in free agency was the their belief that teams such as the Padres and Blue Jays could engage in massive salary dumps if they perform poorly and revenues plummet...

The demand will be greater if players of higher quality — Peavy, Halladay, Tigers outfielder Magglio Ordonez, A's outfielder Matt Holliday — become available.


Gammons has been touting this for awhile, but I just don't see it. The guys who might become available are the same guys who are always available, older players who can still produce (but are overpaid)*, or guys about to hit FA. I don't see teams giving up their young, cost controlled talent (Gammons mentioned guys like Rios or Ianetta); I think it's more likely that they hold onto those players with a death grip.

Similarly, didn't the Santana trade show that ace pitchers with NTC's aren't going to bring back quite the haul you might think?

* the one exception might be Miggy Cabrera, as his deal could be really expensive in Detroit, and he's coming into his peak years, rather than being on the wrong side of them.
   4. Obama Bomaye Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM (#3120575)
I, for one, I quite upset with the lack of updates from THE ROD. I insist that he log on and give us, his greatest supporters, his take on the developments of the off-season.
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:28 PM (#3120589)
I have to agree with 3, it seems every year we get an article touting that trades are going to increase for some random reason, but it feels like that the opposite is happening, teams area overvaluing the potential draft pick.

I'll disagree with pretty much everything Rosenthal said there. (except the last paragraph)
Manny will be fine in LA, and I'll take the over on games played.
Arod will soldier on through the pain and only post a .900 ops in the post season and get blamed for the Yankees first round loss.
Even in the last paragraph, I'm not sure of any managers that is on the hot seat to get fired. At least not during the season, my guess is that Wedge or Leyland are about the only ones in trouble.

I have no problem with the Royals being the surprise team, the hype for them isn't any higher than it was for the Rays last year. I mean a ton of people were touting that the Rays are going to be a surprise team, and the year before enough experts touted the Indians, the Tigers were somewhat of a surprise though.

I do not see Halladay getting traded. Period.
   6. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:32 PM (#3120593)
Phillies outfielder Geoff Jenkins, Angels outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. and Nationals outfielder Austin Kearns are among the players who could be had at little cost, yet their respective teams have been unable to find takers.

HEY KEN. THESE GUYS ALL SUCK AND THEY MAKE A CRAPLOAD OF MONEY. SERIOUSLY. I DON'T EVEN NEED TO LOOK IT UP. PUT THE PHONE DOWN AND WATCH A GAME SOMETIME.

The demand will be greater if players of higher quality — Peavy, Halladay, Tigers outfielder Magglio Ordonez, A’s outfielder Matt Holliday — become available.

YOU DON'T SAY? TEAMS WOULD RATHER HAVE PEAVY OR HOLLIDAY THAN GARY MATTHEWS FREAKIN JR.? MY WORLD VIEW IS CRUMBLING. NEXT STOP: SCIENTOLOGY. MY APOLOGIES IF YOU ARE A SCIENTOLOGIST AS I DON'T WANT TO GET INTO A WHOLE RELIGION THING EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE PROBABLY A WACK JOB. I MEAN, SCIENTOLOGY, REALLY? CRIMONY!
   7. TerpNats Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:43 PM (#3120600)
Jenkins has been released (although Sheffield's availability may have had something to do with it), Matthews is persona non grata in Anaheim, and Kearns is no certainty to stay with the Nats now that Bowden isn't in the front office.
   8. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:30 PM (#3120622)
I hope Halladay and Holliday don't end up on the trade market at the same time. I'm pretty easily confused as it is.
   9. CFiJ Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:35 PM (#3120625)
I take it Shooty has been TOLAXOR's properly type-setting sock-puppet all along?
   10. A triple short of the cycle Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:38 PM (#3120627)
Either Shooty is really TOLAXOR, or his head is about to explode.
   11. A triple short of the cycle Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:39 PM (#3120629)
Ooh - coke for CFiJ.
   12. Crispix Attacks Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:40 PM (#3120631)
I don't see teams giving up their young, cost controlled talent (Gammons mentioned guys like Rios or Ianetta); I think it's more likely that they hold onto those players with a death grip.

Rios may be cost controlled, but it's not exactly a low cost.
   13. John DiFool2 Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:43 PM (#3120632)
The Tigers’ season-ticket base has been cut almost in half, and a number of other teams also are bracing for attendance drops. But if trade talks this spring are any indication, deals will be difficult to consummate even for teams that are willing to help defray a player’s salary.


Article in Time this week about how much of Detroit is now essentially a ghost town. Had some scary-looking pics of neighborhoods which have been essentially abandoned, with tons of empty lots (guess the houses all burned down or something). Weirded me out a little actually.
   14. Crispix Attacks Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:47 PM (#3120634)
Oh, the Tigers' audience hasn't been the people who actually live in the city of Detroit for many decades. The difference this year is that the suburbs are undergoing Great Depression II.

Cities that are shrinking in population have been trying to demolish as many empty buildings as possible recently, but demolition is expensive! It makes more sense to have empty blocks returning to nature in some way, no longer served by utilities, than to have neighborhoods where the majority of houses are vacant and abandoned but still standing.
   15. RJ in TO Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:51 PM (#3120636)
I do not see Halladay getting traded. Period.

Agreed. Halladay isn't going anywhere, unless he demands a trade.

Rosenthal talks about the Jays trading Halladay if revenues plummet, which means he's got it backwards - revenues will plummet if the Jays trade Halladay, as he's easily the most popular and best recognized player on the team. The rough equivalent would be if the Yankees suddenly decided to trade Jeter, Cleveland decided to trade Sizemore, or the Twins just suddenly decided to dump Mauer.
   16. dingo powered war machine (CoB) Posted: April 01, 2009 at 12:01 AM (#3120643)
Article in Time this week about how much of Detroit is now essentially a ghost town. Had some scary-looking pics of neighborhoods which have been essentially abandoned, with tons of empty lots (guess the houses all burned down or something). Weirded me out a little actually.


Here's some more freaky for you ...

Property abandonment is getting so bad in Flint that some in government are talking about an extreme measure that was once unthinkable -- shutting down portions of the city, officially abandoning them and cutting off police and fire service.

Temporary Mayor Michael Brown made the off-the-cuff suggestion Friday in response to a question at a Rotary Club of Flint luncheon about the thousands of empty houses in Flint.

Brown said that as more people abandon homes, eating away at the city's tax base and creating more blight, the city might need to examine "shutting down quadrants of the city where we (wouldn't) provide services."

He did not define what that could mean -- bulldozing abandoned areas, simply leaving the vacant homes to rot or some other idea entirely.
   17. Crispix Attacks Posted: April 01, 2009 at 12:08 AM (#3120645)
They've been doing that in Youngstown. Trying to convince holdouts to leave otherwise unoccupied blocks so that everything can be bulldozed, telephone and water service no longer maintained, etc. When you think about it, it isn't much freakier for a city to get smaller than it is for a city to get bigger.
   18. stevekim Posted: April 01, 2009 at 12:19 AM (#3120648)
On a related note, I've read a couple of newspaper articles about how lenders are kicking people out of homes, leaving an abandoned property which looters trash then the lenders decide the looted property is worthless and stick the now trashed house back on the people that got kicked out. Obviously, the original owners are in no financial position to rehabilitate the house. Apparently, this is causing a decent amount of the neighborhood blight problem in some areas.

I don't have alot of sympathy for people that bought homes they couldn't afford but the lender behaviour is pretty ridiculous. Apparently, a big part of the problem is that each mortgage is held by 5,000 different entities thanks to the slicing/dicing done for CDOs - so coordinating rational behavior by lender groups is pretty difficult.

Anyway good luck to the Tigers if GM/Chrysler actually go down the tubes ... I assume it's pretty bad already.
   19. dingo powered war machine (CoB) Posted: April 01, 2009 at 12:43 AM (#3120652)
On a related note, I've read a couple of newspaper articles about how lenders are kicking people out of homes, leaving an abandoned property which looters trash then the lenders decide the looted property is worthless and stick the now trashed house back on the people that got kicked out. Obviously, the original owners are in no financial position to rehabilitate the house.


In some cases, the city then turns around and charges the ex-owner for the cost of tearing the house down, since it's no longer liveable.

The city of Buffalo sued 37 banks last year over their practice of evicting tenants and then walking away from the upkeep.
   20. Gamingboy Posted: April 01, 2009 at 12:47 AM (#3120656)
Property abandonment is getting so bad in Flint that some in government are talking about an extreme measure that was once unthinkable -- shutting down portions of the city, officially abandoning them and cutting off police and fire service.

Temporary Mayor Michael Brown made the off-the-cuff suggestion Friday in response to a question at a Rotary Club of Flint luncheon about the thousands of empty houses in Flint.

Brown said that as more people abandon homes, eating away at the city's tax base and creating more blight, the city might need to examine "shutting down quadrants of the city where we (wouldn't) provide services."

He did not define what that could mean -- bulldozing abandoned areas, simply leaving the vacant homes to rot or some other idea entirely.


Say what you will about Michael More, but Roger and Me was powerful, although I don't quite agree with all his conclusions and tactics he brought up.

And damn if he doesn't have material to do yet another one if this happens.
   21. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: April 01, 2009 at 12:54 AM (#3120660)
I take it Shooty has been TOLAXOR's properly type-setting sock-puppet all along?

Sorry guys. Rosenthal is the one MSM guy I seem to have had it up to here with. There's no rational reason for this as there are plenty of scoundrels to choose from, but Rosenthal actaully seems to respected and the #### he pulls out of his ass defies belief sometimes. Couple that with the fact he's good for a few "stat nerds in their basements" articles a year (though I fail to see what makes him so un-nerdy, as if harassing mid-level baseball executives for a scoop about a back up shortstop in Cleveland is some kind of prize story that's going to win you any B+ or better ##### in the lobby of the Chelsea Hotel) just gets my proverbial goat. Etc etc. For some it's Heyman. For some it's Chass. For all it's Mariotti. And for me, without my having even noticed it happening, Rosenthal is becoming my pretend enemy. GRRR! Stay away from the Bridge Cafe if you know what's good for you Ken. I'll be all whiskeyed up and feisty!
   22. Obama Bomaye Posted: April 01, 2009 at 01:47 AM (#3120679)
When you think about it, it isn't much freakier for a city to get smaller than it is for a city to get bigger.

I thought about it, and I disagree.
   23. Srul Itza Posted: April 01, 2009 at 02:03 AM (#3120687)
I thought about it, and I disagree.

Why? History is littered with towns and cities that failed and were abandoned. At some point along the way, they had to be getting smaller.
   24. flournoy Posted: April 01, 2009 at 02:05 AM (#3120688)
Rosenthal kind of annoys me too. Mostly when he comes out with his, "An unnamed source close to the Cardinals indicated that the Cardinals are open to trading Pujols. Pujols would be a great fit on the Yankees, who have been shopping Melky Cabrera, but would prefer to part with 27 year old A-ball reliever Joe McSuck, since that would be a fair trade."
   25. Tripon Posted: April 01, 2009 at 02:07 AM (#3120689)
The Russians had a word for it. Pogrom.
   26. TDF, situational idiot Posted: April 01, 2009 at 02:12 AM (#3120691)
Even in the last paragraph, I'm not sure of any managers that is on the hot seat to get fired.

Dusty Baker. He makes too much money, and has too much control over the roster, to put another loser on the field. Plus, Castellini promised (I'd give that more emphasis if it was available, because he wants to seem adamant about it) a winner. I think Dusty's gone at the ASB if the team's under .500.
   27. Esoteric Posted: April 01, 2009 at 02:21 AM (#3120692)
There's no rational reason for this as there are plenty of scoundrels to choose from, but Rosenthal actaully seems to respected and the #### he pulls out of his ass defies belief sometimes.
Rosenthal is respected because of his reporting and his deep (and usually reliable) sources, NOT because of his analytical ability.
   28. Cowboy Popup Posted: April 01, 2009 at 02:35 AM (#3120696)
History is littered with towns and cities that failed and were abandoned. At some point along the way, they had to be getting smaller.

Well, isn't that what makes it freaky? If you're in a town or city that is shrinking, you probably feel like you're in a dying town or city. I'd imagine that's much freakier than living in a growing town.
   29. Lassus: Posted: April 01, 2009 at 02:39 AM (#3120700)
Well, isn't that what makes it freaky? If you're in a town or city that is shrinking, you probably feel like you're in a dying town or city. I'd imagine that's much freakier than living in a growing town.

I think he means historically as opposed to living through the times themselves.
   30. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: April 01, 2009 at 03:04 AM (#3120715)
but demolition is expensive!


That's because they do it the government way, with contractors and bulldozers and guys standing around with clipboards making sure no field mice are injured.

If they just threw a good old-fashioned "burning down the houses" party, got all the neighborhood folks to come out out then and handed them matches and gasoline, they could get it done over a 3-day weekend (and probably make some money off of it if they sold beer and set up some amusement rides for the kids not old enough to start fires).
   31. Hugh Jorgan Posted: April 01, 2009 at 04:14 AM (#3120735)
The rough equivalent would be if the Yankees suddenly decided to trade Jeter, Cleveland decided to trade Sizemore, or the Twins just suddenly decided to dump Mauer.

Well almost. Except Halladay, Sizemore and Mauer are all still young and well...still really good.
   32. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: April 01, 2009 at 04:30 AM (#3120740)
Many of the World's great cities have been through huge population contractions. Rome was well under 100,000 people for some time despite having over a million people during the Empire. I believe Athens was basically back to being a village about 150 years ago.

This is not to compare Detroit to those places; other than the fact that they all contain people.
   33. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: April 01, 2009 at 04:36 AM (#3120742)
Detroit is more like Athens than a lot of American cities.
   34. cardsfanboy Posted: April 01, 2009 at 05:28 AM (#3120752)
Rosenthal is respected because of his reporting and his deep (and usually reliable) sources, NOT because of his analytical ability.

Bingo, I see a Rosenthal article and I know I'm going to get something worth a crap, I may not agree with it, or it may make me angry, but I'm getting an article from a guy who ####### cares about the game. This is contrary to 70% of the articles on here that usually involve guys who actively hate their job and who's goal is to either piss off their reader base or drive traffic.


I'm sorry when I see a Rosenthal article I automaticly respect it, sure it's not a Posnanski article, but this guy is easily in the top 1/4 among actual baseball journalist out there who actually takes his job seriously. For the record please do not try to get this guy to quit, he is one of the best out there.(whether that is a condemnation on baseball journalist as a whole is up to your intepretation
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