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Bedard won't be there when they contend again (2011?). He's got two years left until FA, and is 29. Even if the extended him, he's almost certainly be declining and expensive when the O's are good. Jones will still be under team control.
Andruw Jones -- and actually Cameron too -- are not low OBP. Granderson is a LHB, which makes his batting profile seem completely different to me. I guess he could be a LH Cameron but Cameron never had that kind of BA (it could be park effect).
Young and Cameron are fairly comparable ... low average, many K, decent power, speed, and walks (although Young didn't walk a whole lot his rookie year, he did in the minors and he has to if quality-wise he is to be in this group). Adam Jones looks to profile more like Hunter, higher average, fewer K's and BB's, less speed, at least of the SB-creating variety. Vernon Wells is also in that group. Andruw Jones is really a different species, sort of in between the two types, with more power.
Let's say it's the players Robothal lists as what the O's "would receive" in addition to Jones, which are Sherrill and Tillman.
Is that not enough, too much, just enough?
Andruw Jones isn't African American. He doesn't count.
But seriously, Aaron Rowand would have been a better comp for Adam Jones and Torii Hunter than Mike Cameron. Throwing in Cameron and Young and Granderson is illogical, and is basically an exercise in name the black CFs.
Just like Aaron Sele 4-year contract he nixed in 2000?
And the Brian-Roberts-for-Adam-LaRoche trade that he nixed last year?
Angelos has run this franchise into the ground, but he's actually been right from time to time.
I don't know if the Seattle package is enough talent to get back, but the O's do need to trade Bedard now and they do need Angelos to butt out.
Basically, my point is that I think Bedard for Jones and a couple throw-ins is a good trade for the Orioles.
Dave at USSM says he wouldn't trade Jones straight-up for Bedard.
Over Jay Bruce and Matt Kemp?
I don't. The Orioles need to rebuild. They need quantity as well as quality. And not quantity in low-minors pitchers, which they already have.
I'm sure you've answered this before somewhere, but what do you think would be a good return for Bedard?
Where would you rank Pie in the Trade Centerpiece OF group of Milledge/Young/Jones/Maybin?
That's a tough question to answer, since we don't really know what teams are offering.
Ideally I'd get Jones, plus two of Triunfel/Clement/Tillman from the Mariners.
The fact is, Bedard needs to be traded, and if he gets traded for a bundle of prospects, I'm generally willing to believe that MacPhail got the best real package out there.
I'm not willing to believe that if one of the centerpieces is a 31-year-old LOOGY.
Possibly the lowest of the bunch, but it's too early to tell. He's obviously more MLB-ready than Maybin, though Maybin's the better long-term prospect, and I guess I'm still not sold on Milledge. I haven't seen Maybin or Jones play, but I can't imagine any of 'em are better than Pie defensively.
Of course, the other 4 aren't available in trade anymore, so Pie's value relative to the others won't (or shouldn't) dictate his trade value. He should fetch more than he would have with the others still on the market.
Slightly better than Milledge. Slightly better offensively.
At age 20 in AA in the Eastern, Milledge had an OPS of 879 relative to a league average of 725, 280 EQA.
At age 20 in AAA in the PCL, Jones had an OPS 829, relative to a league average of 757, 281 EQA.
At age 19 in AA in the Texas league, Jones had an OPS of 826, relative to a league average of 746, 275 EQA.
At age 21 in AAA in the INT, Milledge had an OPS of 828, relative to a league average of 715, 299 EQA.
At age 21 in AAA in the PCL, Jones had an OPS of 968, relative to a league average of 783, 314 EQA.
Milledge does have a 92 OPS+ in the majors in 391 PAs, and a 105 OPS+ in 2007 in MLB in 206 PA. At age 21, Milledge had a MLB OPS+ of 78 in 185 PAs.
At age 21 Jones had an OPS+ of 86 in 71 MLB PAs.
Jones is probably slightly better defensively than Milledge.
Quite a bit better than Maybin. Maybin is a 20 year old who has barely played above A+. At age 20, Jones was already in AAA and actually played in MLB too.
After accounting for D and position, probably also slightly better than Delmon. Their AAA numbers at age 20 relative to league are similar. Delmon's numbers at AA and below are better. Delmon has more of a MLB record, and a better one. But at age 21, he had a 91 OPS+ in a large sample, Jones an 86 OPS+ in a small sample. Delmon is better offensively, but Jones plays better D, and at a more demanding position.
EQA here is similar to OPS+ in that it is park adjusted compared to league. 260 is league average.
<edit: spelling and grammar all awry>
Isn't it obvious from the Santana and Bedard negotiations that almost No MLB teams think giving up three good prospects for a near market priced pitcher is worth it.
I think rebuilding teams (and fans) have to face the fact that the days of multi-top-propsect hauls is over.
Most teams now realize that you win with under-priced young talent, supplemented by market priced veterans, not the other way around. As league revenue goes up, that become even more pronounced. The few teams that don't get this, don't have many prospects to begin with, because they neglect the farm.
Understood. I just wanted to get a sense of how these prospects compare in terms of general talent and skills.
I wish I could find the thread where I last asked this question. I think it was a Young-Milledge comparison question. I seem to remember that Delmon Young was considered way ahead of the pack, but I don't think the pack included Jones.
Jones plus TWO of Clement / Triunfel?
How much better than Dan Haren in your opinion is Bedard? Taking into account contract and health.
Would you prefer the Haren package to a Jones + Tillman + Sherill + stuff (eg Chen) package?
The deal he should've stopped was Erickson's contract from the season before.
How would you people rank these players, top-to-bottom?
Seriously, Jones is being sold short because of the significant improvement he's shown three straight years. Guys his age who do that usually end up being very good.
As a 20 year old he hit .287/.345/.484 in the PCL (hitter's league but pitcher's park)- I had him at an OPS+ of 120
last year as a 21 year old he hit .314/.382/.586 in the PCL (same park)- OPS+ about 145
I had Milledge at OPS+ 138 as a 21 year old in AAA (Pitcher's park in a pitcher's league- a combination that obscured how well he actually hit) At 20 he had an OPS+ of 140 in AA and 118 in A+
Hate to do it, but have to give Jones a slight edge as a hitter, even though Milledge has shown a little more at the MLB level so far- Jones is by rep a better fielder.
I've done Chris Young before- Milledge has outhit him somewhat accounting for age and level- Young is a somewhat better fielder though.
Maybin just had a very nice year in the FSL at age 20. he may be toolsier than the others, but not really more advanced as a hitter the same age.
Considering what Jones/Young/Maybin were/are worth in terms of trade value, Omar's return for Milledge is almost inexplicable.
I was thinking you meant Chris Young (since he plays CF, which Delmon doesn't, I don't think). Personally, I'd rather have Pie than Delmon.
I guess the Diamondbacks didn't get the memo.
Jones plus TWO of Clement / Triunfel?
Again, that's my ideal package, but I would've shopped him to the Dodgers, Reds, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Cubs, and Diamondbacks and taken the best package offered 2 months ago. No one knows what is actually being offered for Bedard except for MacPhail.
How much better than Dan Haren in your opinion is Bedard? Taking into account contract and health.
Bedard is a better pitcher, but Haren has been healthier and is cheaper and under control for longer. I'd give up more for Haren, but not a lot more.
Right...If the deal is Jones + 4 pitchers, I won't love it, but it seems like a fair exchange of talent, and we simply don't know if MacPhail could have done any better. The Orioles would be getting an elite CF prospect, two high upside pitching prospects, and a couple of throw ins. My main criticism of that kind of deal is simply that I'd rather have position players as the throw ins, but that's nitpicking. Obviously I'd like Jones and Clement and Triufnel, but I'd also like a date with Laetitia Casta. It probably isn't going to happen.
Angelos better not screw this up.
Oh, it's splicable. This is what happens when your organization and players run down an asset to a local media that puts personality ahead of production, which they don't know how to objectively measure.
CONCUR. Not that it wouldn't be done, but if the Orioles are getting a top CF prospect back for Bedard, why would they want another one? Jones is the better prospect anyway. They're both closish to being major league ready and both should be decent CFer (do either have the bat for a corner OF spot?).
If the Cubs trade Pie for Roberts, that'll pretty much be the trade. Maybe 1 other pitcher, but it won't be one of the top ones (such as Gallagher).
BTW, who exactly is the "marketable veteran" that the Cubs would give up?
The Dbacks offer doesn't seem clearly better, esp. because Jones is the best player in either trade.
so did I....
But Young wasn't traded this past off season.
The more I look at the various 20-23 year old OFs and OF prospects the more I think Delmon Young is grossly overrated, he's good for his age, but doesn't really stand out among the players named above- many of whom I'd rather have because they can play CF.
So, in the Milledge thread (linked in #31 here), when you said Milledge "isn't Delmon," did you mean to say Milledge was better than Young?
I ask because you have Adam Jones as better than Delmon Young today; in the Milledge, you had Milledge "comparable" to Adam Jones, but not (as I read it) as good as Delmon Young.
EDIT: corrections for clarity
Also the Mets were trying to use Gomez to get Bedard- that was dumb, Milledge > Gomez* and Jones > Milledge. Jones blows Gomez away, it's not even close.
*The Mets liked Gomez over Milledge, and apparently assumed other teams did so as well. Since they had already decided to offer Gomez in exchange for pitching, they reasoned that they didn't need to hold onto Milledge as a pitching trade chip-
See my post to you above. I was emotional and pissed off at Omar at the time.
I would say now, that Jones is slightly better than Milledge, slightly better than Delmon. Millege vs AJ or Delmon, depends really on Milledge's D, and where Milledge is used.
I guess I would concur with JPWF. The more I look at Delmon's numbers, and his reputed bad D in a corner, yes I know that he is young and should improve, the less impressed I am.
So what in your opinion would be a comparable package from the Mariners for Bedard?
I can't see how Jones + Clement + Triunfel is anywhere close to the Haren package at all.
These other guys, Adam Jones, Milledge, Chris Young, even Maybin (though it's juts 2 years) do not show Delmon's clear statistical decline year after year when promoted.
Jones in particlular seems to be winning the fight with gravity.
Believe it or not there were rumors(Robothal?) that the Os had interest in Marquis.
Adam Jones (seems to be consensus, today)
Lastings Milledge (closer to #1A than #2?)
Chris Young
Cameron Maybin
Felix Pie
Delmon Young (hated on because he can't play CF)
Again, that's my own approximation based on comments in this thread.
Looks like the best-available CF plus another good prospect wouldn't be a catastrophic return for Bedard, by Oriole standards anyway.
I wonder how a Scott-Jones-Markakis OF would perform in 2008.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Grade B+/5 Stars
Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade B+/4 Stars
Chris Carter, 1B, Grade B+/3 Stars
Aaron Cunningham, OF, Grade B-/3 Stars
Greg Smith, LHP, Grade C+/3 Stars
Dana Eveland, LHP, Not Graded
Adam Jones, OF, Grade B+/5 Stars
Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B+/4 Stars
Tony Butler, LHP, Grade B-/2 Stars
George Sherrill, LHP, Not Graded
I don't think either Sickels or Goldstein would disagree that Jones is the best prospect listed, but I prefer the depth of the first deal (especially in light of TINSTAAPP).
I'd also take Door #1, if Jones and Gonzalez are comparable in CF.
The clear difference is that Haren is signed for THREE years, way below market.
Bedard is signed below market this year, but next year will be close to market in his last year of arbitration. He has also more injury prone than Haren.
Also, Jones is a MLB ready, probably above average CF, TODAY, so should be considerably less risky than Gonzalez.
Except that Haren is not "a near market priced pitcher". He's signed for 3 years at slightly more than $5m/year. IOW, he's getting paid a little bit more than Scott Linebrink. Or, put differently, he'll get in 3 years from AZ what Silva will get in less than 1 1/2 years from SEA. Or he'll get just a bit more in 3 years than what Santana will get in one year.
Again, Bedard has the higher ceiling but Haren has averaged 221 IP over the last 3 years, while Bedard has never even pitched more than 196 1/3 innings in any season in his career, and has averaged around 175 ip over the last 3 seasons. And he'll get paid a lot of money over the next 2 years. The Dbacks got the memo, it just didn't say what you thought it said.
That might work on Brian Sabean or Wayne Krivsky, but rest assured Josh Byrnes would have laughed and hung up the phone.
He'll make $7MM this year, and he should make ~$12-15MM in 2009. So ~$20MM over two years for Bedard, with the option to pay him zero in 2009 if he craters.
The O's shopped him to everyone. I know the Dbacks asked for Bedard's price, and decided to pass. We all remember the rumors of the O's wanting Kemp + someone good (Kershaw?) for Bedard... and we all know Kemp is still a Dodger. And the Reds didn't think he was worth Bruce, and obviously the Cubs don't want to pay for him what the O's think he's worth.
In the end, O's fans will have to face the same reality enjoyed by Twins fans: Bedard and Santana aren't going to fetch as much as O's/Twins fans think they should fetch. Reality is a bltch
I faced that reality after the Tejada trade. At this point, I'd be OK with Bedard for Adam Jones, pretty much straight up.
Only one team seems to want to come anywhere close to the O's asking price for Bedard, and that team is the M's. Bavasi is desperate, so that helps, but even he isn't dumb enough to include Clement and Truinfel in the same deal with Jones. As I said, outside of the fantasy land where O's fans seem to live, Bedard isn't worth all that.
The didn't shop him to the Yankees or Red Sox.
Bedard and Santana aren't going to fetch as much as O's/Twins fans think they should fetch. Reality is a bltch
As I've said repeatedly, I have no idea what Bedard should fetch. I look to Haren as a benchmark, but obviously Bedard and Haren are completely different animals.
All I know is that a package with George Sherrill in it means the Orioles are leaving prospects on the table.
That's not unreasonable, unless you think Jones shouldn't be traded for Bedard at all. We have enough info to know that the M's were willing to ship Jones to Baltimore, so where's the fantasy?
vs. $15M for three years for Haren. Big difference.
If you think their production will be worth $15M per year, that's $30M in "surplus value" for Haren, vs. $10M in "surplus value for Bedard. If they're worth $20M per, it's $45M "surplus" for Haren, $20M "surplus" for Bedard.
Bedard has to be A LOT better to be worth as much as Haren.
That ideally I'd like to hit a home run with the Bedard trade, but I'll be happy with any package composed solely of prospects?
I have no idea how my #24 was interpreted that I expect to receive Jones/Clement/Triunfel for Bedard.
I'm sorry if I offended you by suggesting that Bedard's value might be close to Haren's.
If it goes down, I can see it being something like Jones plus Sherrill. I would hope MacPhail would take that.
If Jones is better than Milledge, I could easily live with that "package" for Bedard, considering the career projections I've seen thrown around for Milledge.
Thus, an argument could be made that the Dbacks were wise to trade guys like Eveland, CarGo, Cunningham, Smith NOW than wait for them to stagnate in AAA and lose any trade value. Being able to maximize the trade value of these guys to acquire a pitcher like Haren, a 220 ip/year front of the rotation starter who'd be paid pennies for the next 3 years, was a very logical move from AZ's POV. Overpaying with players the M's need at the major league level for 2 years of Bedard at slightly below market prices isn't nearly as logical of a move for SEA.
I was reading BA's report on newly acquired A's prospect Ryan Sweeney, who's white, and was shocked to see them compare his swing to Harold Baines.
I guess they need somebody to urinate on Mazzone's figurative grave in Baltimore.
You mean like the Twins did a few years ago?
Or what Houston did with seemingly all their prospects?
Or what Az did with Hairston?
I was wondering that, too. I was thinking Murton, though "marketable veteran" isn't a very good descriptor of him.
The Marquis idea's kind of hilarious. (Dempster, perhaps? Heh...)
I think the same thing about D. Young. He's got serious plate discipline issues (not to mention personal discipline issues, apparently), and he probably can't handle a key defensive position. He should be pretty productive, but I don't think he's a surefire superstar.
CallaspoRandy Johnson has been my scarlet letter.;)
Sorry for the minor correction
Huh. I can't even remember what I said then. Should probably cut back on the sauce...
Could be that the Orioles would be taking back a bad contract to get more talent in return.
Current rumor about Jones is that the deal has been delayed because the Orioles are concerned about something in his medical records.
A suicide like this is so perplexing. It must be absolute hell on the family. One actually hopes foul play was involved.
Requiesce in Pacem
Why doesn't he just sell? I mean it would be fun to own a competitive team. But, I can't see him enjoying the last 10 years. I mean, I LOVE baseball, but losing all the time would just suck, especially if I were mostly to blame.
Yeah....seems I heard that somewhere else yesteday. ;)
I'm hoping man. The buzz on the street and in the tunnels here in Arizona is that he looks great, is moving freely, and is ready to hop up on a mound very shortly. They think he'll be ready to go opening day. By the way, looking at the schedule, the D Backs Home opener will be pitched by Webb on Monday night, April 7th, and Randy will probably be pitching April 8th on Tuesday night if they stick with the plan to slot him in the 2 spot in the rotation. You might want to think about going home on that Wednesday AM instead of Tuesday. ;)
Anybody else read the story in Dollar Sign on the Muscle about scouting Baines? It's some funny stuff...
Yeah, we'll check that game out together too. No worries.
From you lips to God's ears.
After you make him a closer for half a year, Sherrill will get you a better prospect than the prospect you can get instead of him right now.
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