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Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
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Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Rosenthal: Big names could move before deadline
Robo deadline notes...beware!
--Dodgers center fielder Andruw Jones, batting .160/.248/.224 against right-handed pitching, did not start Monday night against Giants right-hander Kevin Correia.
Look for that trend to continue now that Juan Pierre is off the disabled list. Pierre, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier could get most of the starts against righties, reducing Jones to a $36.2 million platoon player.
--Cubs rookie Jeff Samardzija was electric in his first two appearances, prompting one scout to say he possesses a “Gossage fastball,” comparing his late movement to that of newly minted Hall of Famer Rich Gossage.
--Reds left fielder Adam Dunn hit his 30th home run on Monday night, tying the Phillies’ Ryan Howard for the major-league lead. His .941 OPS ranks ninth in the NL. And his defense, by most measures, has improved.
Nobody wants him?
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Is that THE Charley Kerfeld?
Jason Donald?
"Who cares if he's good, we know him!" That just screams laziness and arrogance by management.
Best line of the article right there.
If only they had a good defensive SS like Adam Everett.
You're only being compared to a HOFer, no pressure, rook.
ESPN is saying that the Phillies are offering him for Mahay. If that's true, what the hell are the Royals waiting for? Donald's not great, but geez, you'd be getting him for Ron Mahay.
Not that it should really matter from the Orioles' perspective, since they also have long-term holes at 2B and 3B.
Donald's bat looks legit, but I'm guessing the O's want an additional prospect for Sherrill.
RELieVERS ARE A CRAPSHOOT
PLEASE DO NOT TRADE ANY THING AT ALL OF ANY VALUE FOR A RELIEVER
It's weird when a name pops up like that. I remember thinking Kerfeld was a big doof, and here he is 20 years later working in a baseball FO. Cool.
Here's another good line:
I present that without further comment.
the O's are reluctant to trade [George Sherrill] within the division for the Rays' Reid Brignac.
I present that without further comment.
This was in an article yesterday. I think it was another Robo article, but it said that Angelos won't trade in division. Of course, Robothal took a shot at Angelos that it doesn't really matter because the O's aren't competative.
I figure that since the Braves got Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies last year, they could expect at least a Davies-quality player in return for Ohman.
Good lord, no! Mahay is scheduled to make $4M next year. It's possible that the team, if they acquired Mahay and moved Myers back to the pen, could be paying about $31 million for 250 innings of bullpen work out of Lidge, Myers, Romero, and Mahay.
If the Phillies traded Donald for Mahay, I might have to update my "Gillick does nothing but hurt the Phillies" 2008 preview to include some harsher language.
Edit - Thanks Crashburn. Whew.
And the article said that the Rays aren't offering Brignac as of right now so it's Robo speculating on a potential trade. Robo and Angelos aren't particularly chummy.
I also don't think it's unusual for teams to be reluctant to trade players within a division, especially when they are under team control for a long time like Sherrill, who's not eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.
It's probably just a silly PR thing, but it's not like the Rays are the only team looking for LH relief. I doubt it really hurts the O's to focus on the other 25 ML teams as destinations for Sherrill.
If the Rays want to talk Payton or Millar, I'm sure the O's are all ears.
Or not......
The thing is, the O's aren't close to contention. In fact, they may not be close until after 2011, so it really doesn't matter. They should be focusing on getting assets, not trying to control their opponents roster 3 years from now. This doesn't take into account that we're talking about George Sherrill and not Mariano Rivera.
Of course, the O's didn't get this bad by making smart decisions, so we know how this will turn out.
--retro-shiite, who possesses no medical credentials whatsoever, did not perform bypass surgery on 63-year-old John Doe Monday afternoon.
Ah, he can handle it. He Played Football at Notre Dame™.
If the Angels are really offering that much, they can have TexMex. Godspeed.
That much? From what I can see, they're offering an OF they don't think is a starter, a 1B who doesn't hit for power, and an unknown prospect. Unless that's Jordan Walden, this deal's not getting done. I'd take the two draft picks.
[edit] I gather Kotchman is 3 years away from free agency. Is Rivera a free agent after 09?
I'm pretty sure the Phillies use Stark to float many a rumor. I'm still curious about his "Marson Watch" that came about around the time Sabathia was going to be dealt. Seemed a little odd for a player who was in the #75-100 prospect range.
2 draft picks v. Kotchman, Rivera & a Prospect.
Odds are 1 of those two picks will never see more than 50 MLB PAs/IP
"Who cares if he's good, we know him!" That just screams laziness and arrogance by management.
What a ridiculous bash. It is pretty obvious that the Phils and Gillick would not be getting him just because "they know him" but because he is a quality pitcher and maybe the best LHP on the market right now. The fact that they are familiar with him is a pretty clear bonus though. In what field WOULDN'T you like to bring in help that is not only talented but also you have a good past relationship with and whom you know would be a positive addition?
That much? From what I can see, they're offering an OF they don't think is a starter, a 1B who doesn't hit for power, and an unknown prospect. Unless that's Jordan Walden, this deal's not getting done. I'd take the two draft picks.
You know the picks would probably be something like #22 and #40, right? Somewhere in that nieghborhood. You know how picks that late are not something of great value, right? And you know that those picks would be unlikely to yield you two quality starting hitters, like Rivera and Kotch, and you would have to pay 1.5 mil in bonuses for those picks.
You know that an outcome of something like McCay McBride/Richard Lewis, Mike Fontenot/Bryan Bass, David Aardsma/Craig Whitaker or Bily Traber/Bob Keppel is a fairly average return when it comes to taking two guys at those pick spots, right?
David Murphy/Matt Murton is actually probably an better-than-normal outcome from two late-first rounders and taking those two required getting pick that were at the very top of the range of picks available for comp picks (picks 17 and 32.. the best one can do is get picks 16 and 31).
Plus, again, the team had to pay out for the signing bonus, instead of getting a prospect or MLB player whose team has already paid out, and it is now 5 years later and those two players, despite being collegians (and thus, closer to MLB), have only contributed a little at the MLB level.
Owings is a better hitter than the guy the Nationals ended up getting.
If the Angels make this trade, they would then be forced to play Gary Matthews and Garret Anderson every day. How that makes the team better, I have no idea.
If only he could pitch.
Nobody wants him?
Well, I think Harvey has a bit of a mancrush on him.
Not that they need him, but...
Carlos Lee v. 2.0? The Rangers are probably at least as much in contention now as they were at the trade deadline in '06. Why not bring the Texan home for a few months and see how many homers he could hit behind Bradley in Arlington? If the market's truly that barren for Dunn, how expensive could he be?
No, I just don't like Juan Rivera or Kotchman. I dislike any 1B that has zero power just on principle, and Rivera's never done anything to wow me.
You know the picks would probably be something like #22 and #40, right? Somewhere in that nieghborhood. You know how picks that late are not something of great value, right? And you know that those picks would be unlikely to yield you two quality starting hitters, like Rivera and Kotch, and you would have to pay 1.5 mil in bonuses for those picks.
I do know all that. I just don't think Rivera and Kotchman are anything to write home about, and I don't think they put this Braves team, or the Braves 2-3 years from now any closer to contention.
Dodgers center fielder Andruw Jones, batting .188/.307/.313 against left-handed pitching is having an historically bad season.
reducing Jones to a $36.2 million platoon player.
and elevating Pierre to a $45 million platoon player.
The best thing about the Jones signing and performance for Colletti is that it's made almost everyone forget how terrible the Pierre contract was. I still say the Pierre contract was worse -- at least Jones is performing below expectations while Pierre is hitting every bit as badly as expected.
That, and Jones is gone after next season while Pierre will have two more after next season.
and elevating Pierre to a $45 million platoon player.
Yes, but Jones is fat, overpaid, and lazy while Pierre is overpaid but works his ass off and steals a ton of bases. MSM rips on the former and praises the latter.
1) You've gotta think Byrd is gone before the deadline. He'll be a subsidiary piece in a deal of Laird/Saltalamacchia or Guardado. He'd be the consummate 4th OF for a playoff team.
2) If Byrd's still around, look at the box score from last night:
Davis 1B-3B
Not that I expect that to happen again this season...but Davis did come up as a 3B. Blalock is eminently available. I've seen worse ideas bandied about here (and I've been the origin of more than one of them).
For 1B or overall league average?
Dunn is batting .262/.391/.607 w/RISP and over his last 25 games is hitting .298/.402/.750 with 12 HR 28 RBI ... if only he liked baseball, he could really help the Blue Jays!
Oh well, J.P. knows what's best! Brad Wilkerson is a perky chap--we'll suck but at least we'll be happy while doing it!
Happy, happy happy!
Rumour has it that Barney will soon be named bench coach and Baby-Bop the staff psychologist.
Wheee!
I love you, you love me, who cares if you're 0-for-3, with a big pop up and a ground ball to turn two, it's not a lie when I know it's true.
Best Regards
John
The next Braves team in serious contention is going to have one of their many low minor prospects at 1b and LF. But they need major league players for the next 2 years at that position. This is a cheap way of doing it, and Kotchman is pretty good, esp if you factor in all his missed time.
I would take Kotchman/Rivera if it was out there instantly. I suspect it is not. More than likely, the Angels want Ohman in that trade too.
Is there space for me? We'd have to resign him though.
You disturb me greatly...
That is sheer brilliance. Primey?
No. He doesn't have the range or the arm.
-- MWE
Plenty of room. Call your friends too.
I'm actually ok with Dunn as a rental. Of course, I'd consider signing him to a short term deal (3 years or less) and slot him at 1b or LF, but I can't imagine he would go for that. Then again, if the market for him is as tepid as has been reported, maybe he has to take that kind of deal.
You're right. Hmm, that changes things. The DBacks offer of Tracy+ is worth considering. An added bonus that Tracy can play 3B for when Chipper goes on the DL, although that leaves the question of who would play 1B in that scenario.
I would hate that trade. A slight upgrade for 2 months at first base, and probably all the gain would be offset by having to put Matthews back in the lineup in place of Rivera.
Then in 2009-2011, you're missing a very good and cheap player in Kotchman. This is the kind of trade that erodes a team's talent in the long run. With the best record in baseball and double digit lead, I hope Reagins follows in the footsteps of Bill Stoneman.
Some people will say that the Angels of the last few years might have done more in the playoffs had they made a big deadline deal. I look at the players they were rumored to be targeting (Tejada? Mike Sweeney?) and think if they had traded some of their young players in those deals, the 2008 Angels may not be as good as they are.
To give them a chance to win in the playoffs?
To those here who think Kotchman is worthless, fine. I don't want your team to have him. His defense is incredible, I believe he's saved many infield error in addition to great range. And I think he's got upside as a hitter.
Of course, Kotch, Rivera + garbage is better than crappy Chad Tracy.
I guess I was reading you as saying it was only a slight upgrade and it was only for two months, rather than the upgrade being slight because it was only for 2 months.
There are also the compensation picks for Teix to consider.
Woo hoo! Well done, Frank.
Though it is just going to add to Braves' issues against left handers
EDIT: Keith Law says Teixeira for Kotchman and Stephen Marek.
Good haul for ATL. Kotchman and Marek beats the heck out of Kotchman and Rivera.
Hmm.
I'm both sad and hopeful about this.
Hmmmm...may have to procure tickets to a game during that series just for the distinct pleasure of booing him every time up.
Not quite as egregious as the 24 kids quote, but...
I'm going to miss Tex.
Casey is terrific against LHP.
So in other words, I'm not sure.
Lets see what Wren gets for Ohman and company.
Kotchman gives them solid production at 1B for a decent price over the next three years and Marek is a decent bet to make the majors. That's better than what they'd likely draft with a late 1st round pick and a sandwich pick.
David Ortiz.
More realistically, the Braves couldn't get Conor Jackson, so went for the AL version.
Kotchman 2007: .296/.372/.467
2007 2B: .277/.339/.417
Kotchman 2008: .287/.327/.448
2008 2B: .275/.337/.410
Do you know what I think the problem with Kotchman is?
Career 1st half: .259/.320/.400
Career 2nd half: .303/.371/.478
Generally speaking if you look at Kotchman's numbers in the middle of the season, you don't see a .290/.350/.465 hitter, you see that .259/.320/.400 1st half line- and that colors one's perceptions of Kotchman as a hitter.
Kotchman ages 24-25 (.292/.352/.458 OPS+ 113, so far) has outplayed Conor Jackson ages 24-25 (.288/.368/.453 OPS+ 106)- especially considering Kotchman's massive defensive edge.
No he's not Tex, but the Braves were losing Tex anyway.
This is their shot, because the Angels decline phase begins this November.
2008:
Kotchman: .287, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 23 SO, 18 BB, .774 OPS, .998 FPCT
Tex: .283, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 70 SO, 65 BB, .902 OPS, .998 FPCT
Kotchman is a good young player. But a fair amount of his value is tied up in being cheap, e.g. his production is solid but if you have money to spend you can find that production without a killer contract, too. Thus, swapping him for a legit impact bat (and it's far more than the 'slight' upgrade someone characterized it as here) makes a lot of sense for a team who wants to win in the playoffs this year and if Teix leaves they can backfill with some of the money the franchise generates...plus they get the draft picks.
Kudos to Reagins for recognizing a mistake made repeatedly in past years by a otherwise-generally-very-good front office.
The Braves aren't keeping Tex, and they have a very reasonably-sized budget and plan to be competitive next year, so getting a good 1B at a discount helps them.
The Angels are definitely going to be in the playoffs, and should have the money to keep Teixeira if he likes it in LA. Teixeira is basically Kotchman, if everything turns out right. He makes them better in the playoffs and they get an edge on the best free agent of the offseason. (Why would it be a bad thing for hte Angels to prefer to pay Teixeira over Rodriguez?)
Nigel Tufnel: “It really puts perspective on things though, doesn’t it?”
David St. Hubbins: “Oh. Too much. There’s too much ####### perspective now.”
So basically this comes down to giving up Kotchman's cheap age 26 and 27 seasons, and slightly discounted age 28 through 30 seasons for 10 more home runs this year, knowing that what that entails is little more than paying $2 or $3 million more in each of those years for the same production from first base (if they sign a similar first baseman to Kotchman). That's probably not a trade I'd make.
Huh? Teixera can be expected to hit 10 more this year I guess, but Kotchman sure ain't a zero. Tex has outhomered him 20-12 through 2/3 of the year, so it looks like the Angels get a net gain of 4 HR the rest of the season.
Such a waste.
Ah, he can handle it. He Played Football at Notre Dame™.
You wouldn't believe the vibe in Chicago about Samardzija. My friends and I were wondering yesterday when his statue is going to be commemorated in Daley Plaza. He's thrown five freaking innings and allowed two runs. It's fairly ridiculous.
Move fast and light. Get in and get out before they even know you're there.
You should be able to sneak into Cincinatti, root for Adam Dunn on the Mets, and get out before anyone figures out what you're up to. It won't show in the standings and your team will never be able to acknowledge what you've done, but you'll know you made a difference.
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