He got rocked again tonight. What is he doing wrong this season?

Didn't he start slow last year?

Nah, after his 4th start last year CC was 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA. It doesn't LOOK like anything's wrong with him, he's got his velocity, but he is pitching like absolute crap out there. Luckily the rest of the Indians are sucking it up as well to deflect some of the blame, selfless guys that they are.

Including the playoffs last year, Sabathia has walked 27 guys in his last 33 IP for a 13.35 ERA. He walked just 37 guys in 241 IP in the regular season last year.

He also seems to be losing a MPH per year on his fastball, according to Fangraphs:

Average FB velocity:
2005: 94.7
2006: 93.7
2007: 92.9
2008: 91.8

That 27-year-old arm has thrown a lot of innings. A lot of innings before he was even 25.

I've always thoughts he was nothing all that special. I'm only, what, seven years late on having it come true.

Always felt the same about Colon, too, FWIW.

That 27-year-old arm has thrown a lot of innings. A lot of innings before he was even 25.

I'm sorry, this guy was unbelievably babied for his first few seasons. He's almost 28 and he's thrown over 200 IP twice in his career. He's one of the best pitchers in the majors and has had, what, maybe one 1 stay on the DL; despite that there's still 8 pitchers who have thrown more pitches than him over the past 7+ seasons. He's 6'7" and got a big base to work off. He's thrown 120+ pitches all of 10 times in his career. He's never thrown more than 128 pitches in a game. If he's struggling because he's thrown "a lot of innings," this damn game needs to be changed. This is a big strong guy who is a child of the pitch-count movement. If he's still been worn down, something major needs to be changed because this game is fundamentally unfair to pitchers.

Maybe he is overthrowing.

Maybe he's doing a Randy Johnson sulk. Look out, National League.

He must get on track....Sabathia.....must....get....on....track......AAAAARRRRRRGGGGGHHHHH

Untracked.

Maybe all those chezburgers finally caught up to Captain Cheeseburger.

He must get on track....Sabathia.....must....get....on....track......AAAAARRRRRRGGGGGHHHHH

Well, if you looked like you were on The Last Train to Clarksville, you'd want to get untracked too.

A guy can start slow, but Sabathia, one of the best pitchers in baseball normally, has been pitching to make Jose Lima blush so far this year. At what point do you start to think he's hiding an injury?

He's only 340 pounds.

If he's struggling because he's thrown "a lot of innings," this damn game needs to be changed. This is a big strong guy who is a child of the pitch-count movement. If he's still been worn down, something major needs to be changed because this game is fundamentally unfair to pitchers.

Obviously not all things are equal insofar as innings and pitch counts, but there's just no way to project this kind of thing. From age 20 to 25, Sabathia threw more innings than Alex Fernandez (broke down at age 27), Steve Avery (basically cooked by age 26), or Storm Davis (basically cooked by age 27).

Since 1970, Sabathia is actually tenth in IP from 20-25. I don't know if any of this has to do with how he's pitching now, but he's not exactly the poster child for limited work at a young age.

To continue on RB's point, Sabathia pitched more innings through age 22, 23, and 24 than any other active pitcher. He was second in innings through age 25 to Greg Maddux. He's thrown the 11th most innings in baseball since he came into the league, which wouldn't be a concern if he wasn't the youngest player in the league when he was called up.

Most pitchers aren't throwing 180+ innings at that age. Sabathia threw 210 innings as a 21 year old, which was the most since Steve Avery in 1991. Before Avery, it was Gooden in 1986.

Sorry for the self-pimping, but here's a look at other post-Cy meltdowns. Well, not meltdowns like Sabathia is having, but certainy bad post-Cy seasons.

The good: guys like Seaver, Palmer, Carlton, Unit, and some others bounced back just fine. The bad: guys like Randy Jones, Jim Lonborg, Steve Stone, Pete Vukovich, and Bartolo Colon did not, often because of injuries.

Since 1970, Sabathia is actually tenth in major league IP from 20-25.

Keep in mind though that Sabathia had far fewer minor league innings than most other active pitchers. Granted, major league innings may be more stressful on the arm (I really don't know) but does throwing 180 innings in Cleveland at age 20 rather than throwing them in AAA really mean that he's at that much higher risk for injury?

I'd say his struggles are far more likely to be caused by throwing more than 60 more innings last year than he had since his second season than the long-delayed impact of relatively low innings in youth.

I have a hard time understanding how pitching innings in the majors is so much more stressful than pitching innings in the minors. Pitchers in the minors have less adequate training facilities, bus travel, less resources for offseason training, worse field conditions and a typical diet of fast food. If anything, Sabathia was probably protected by throwing those innings in the majors.

I have a hard time understanding how pitching innings in the majors is so much more stressful than pitching innings in the minors. Pitchers in the minors have less adequate training facilities, bus travel, less resources for offseason training, worse field conditions and a typical diet of fast food. If anything, Sabathia was probably protected by throwing those innings in the majors.

I would imagine College innings are the real killer, b/c the managers have the incentive to overwork their aces to win games.

Since 1970, Sabathia is actually tenth in IP from 20-25.

Sabathia pitched more innings through age 22, 23, and 24 than any other active pitcher.

But that's because he was in the majors. How many minor league and/or college IP did his peers throw? If you can't put major league ready talent in the major leagues, what are you supposed to do? He's accumulated "a lot" of innings over an extended period simply by virtue of being talented, but at no point during that extended period was he being abused, or anything close to it.

The more that you think of it, the more you realize that just counting major league innings, that occur during games, in the regular season, is not a great proxy for overall number of pitches. Pitchers throw in the off season, during spring training, while working on new pitches, during the playoffs, during off days, while warming up, and on, and on. They throw in high school, in college, and in the minors. Obviously the stress level on the arm varies by the situation, but there's a whole lot of "stuff" that's going on that could affect a pitcher's arm rather than just counting major league innings.

Second, do we really know that the number of pitches someone throws at age 19 can lead the arm to suddenly break down at age 27?

Major league history is filled with pitchers who are good for a few years, and then lose it without an obvious serous arm injury. Its nice to figure out a cause, but sometimes you just won't find it.

I'd say his struggles are far more likely to be caused by throwing more than 60 more innings last year

Yeah. Maybe he'll pitch great the rest of the season, maybe 2008 will just be a dud and he'll bounce back. Lots of great pitchers have lots of bad seasons in the middle of the careers.

I have a hard time understanding how pitching innings in the majors is so much more stressful than pitching innings in the minors. Pitchers in the minors have less adequate training facilities, bus travel, less resources for offseason training, worse field conditions and a typical diet of fast food. If anything, Sabathia was probably protected by throwing those innings in the majors.

A lot of us believe that innings are not exactly the issue; the real issue is pitches thrown, especially when the pitcher is fatigued and will aggravate minor injuries if he doesn't come out of the game. Whether one pitcher is likely to be fatigued after 80 pitches and another pitcher after 120 pitches...in the majors you will be throwing more pitches when fatigued, because your manager is trying to actually win games instead of just train players for the higher level. If the Buffalo Bisons manager leaves starting pitchers in there too long, he gains virtually nothing from the increased risk of injury, so probably a pitcher gets a quicker hook in the minors as soon as it looks like he's laboring.

Except of course for situations where they're trying to teach the pitcher to get out of jams. That's really the only reason not to give a starter the quick hook in the minors.

Another reason why "innings" is misleading: In the minors a good pitcher like Sabathia (or any pitcher, really) would probably throw fewer pitches per inning, because the hitters are easier to get out. And he doesn't have to put 100% effort into each pitch, for the same reason. All these things mean that a given inning in the minors is probably less stressful than an inning in the majors.

But that's because he was in the majors. How many minor league and/or college IP did his peers throw? If you can't put major league ready talent in the major leagues, what are you supposed to do?

I thought this was clear from my post, but just in case it wasn't, I have no problem with the way the Indians handled CC. He was clearly ready to be a MLB pitcher and the Tribe did the right thing bringing him up when they did.

I have no idea if all those innings have anything to do with how he's pitching now, and I agree he wasn't "abused" in the Bill Pulsipher ten million pitches manner. But he just threw a lot of innings and for some people--no matter their physical profile--those innings wear you out. Guys have broken throwing fewer pitches. It happens.

Another reason why "innings" is misleading: In the minors a good pitcher like Sabathia (or any pitcher, really) would probably throw fewer pitches per inning, because the hitters are easier to get out.

Exactly. The reason minor league innings might be less stressful is that the level of competition is lower. Just like running a 7 minute mile is less stressful than running a 5 minute mile. Or facing the 2008 Giants lineup is less stressful than facing the Yankees lineup.

Exactly. The reason minor league innings might be less stressful is that the level of competition is lower. Just like running a 7 minute mile is less stressful than running a 5 minute mile. Or facing the 2008 Giants lineup is less stressful than facing the Yankees lineup.

I don't know if that's necessarily true. Sure, the quality of the hitters is lower compared to the major leagues, but the quality of the pitcher isn't high yet, either. Minor league pitchers don't just breeze through lineups. They're really working, getting out of jams that they get themselves into because they aren't polished major league pitchers yet. I don't think the effort is necessarily any less. They're still trying hard to impress the scouts and show they can succeed at that level. If they're pitching in some crazy hitter's league or park, then they might be working even harder then they might in MLB.

Depending on the manager's or team's philosophy, I could see minor league pitchers maybe being treated a little more carefully by the management. But I think we see a lot of that kind of careful treatment with young pitchers in MLB too. I don't think we have that kind of granular information about each individual situation.