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Saturday, January 12, 2008

Rosenthal: Cards, Blue Jays set to swap third basemen

You cannot stop Rosenthal. You can only hope to contain him.

The Cardinals and Blue Jays are closing in on an exchange of their third basemen, major-league sources say, but both former All-Stars must pass physicals before a deal is completed.

Those physicals are no small issue since Rolen is coming off surgery on his right shoulder and Glaus surgery on his left foot.

While both players have agreed to waive their no-trade clauses, the differences in their contracts also might need to be resolved, most likely through a cash payment from the Cardinals to the Blue Jays.

The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: January 12, 2008 at 06:06 PM | 60 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 12, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2666989)
Rolen killed the Brewers hitting over 20 homers in his career with a slugging percentage well over .500.

Fine with me.............
   2. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: January 12, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#2666990)
This trade seems boringly fair.

The Jays are going to have one hell of a defensive team. Note to self: bid higher on Jays pitchers.
   3. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 12, 2008 at 06:30 PM (#2666991)
A lot of people have this strange idea that Rolen's shoulder is irreparably damaged, but trading partners either aren't going to find out about this or aren't going to care. I'm not at all pleased with this potential deal, but I'm sure a lot of people are going to love it.
   4. DCW3 Posted: January 12, 2008 at 06:39 PM (#2666994)
Ugh, that's a terrible trade for the Cardinals. They get an inferior player and probably save no money at all. But at least they appease La Russa, the same reason they cut John Rodriguez, buried Brendan Ryan, and will probably trade Anthony Reyes. Remind me again why La Russa wanted to spend valuable drinking time in his golden years managing a fifth-place team?
   5. bbc is prejudice bout men Posted: January 12, 2008 at 06:45 PM (#2666997)
whoa

well, speaking strictly as an astros fan, i'm glad to see rolen's bat and glove GONE.

i'm actually pretty surprised they decided to keep larussa after throwing jocketty out on his ear and i'm surprised larussa wanted to stay.
   6. A One-Shoed Craig K Posted: January 12, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2667001)
Oh goody, another gimpy hitter on the wrong side of 30.
   7. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:08 PM (#2667005)
chick--his bat has been gone for a while now, but the glove is still intact. i'll miss that.
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2667009)
Rosenthal gets a LOT of scoops, doesn't he (assuming this is his alone)?
Does anyone get more?
   9. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:16 PM (#2667012)
If this trade were to happen, would it make sense for the Cards to move Pujols (back) to third and put Glaus at 1B?

At this point in their respective careers, Pujols is possibly a better third baseman than Glaus. And Glaus' health could probably benefit more than Pujols by being able to play a more stationary position and not have to make throws.

While Pujols is one of the best defensive 1B in the game, it only made sense to play him there while they had a great defender at third. Glaus could probably be an above-average 1B and benefit from playing a position where there was less wear-and-tear.
   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:22 PM (#2667016)
Pujols has battled his own injuries. Playing third would likely increase the chances of an injury that would cause Albert to miss games.

It's pretty clear the Cardinal plan needs, demands, that Pujols play 155 games.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:34 PM (#2667018)
This trade seems boringly fair.

I agree, but what's the point? Just to get Rolen out of St. Louis? I don't get it from Toronto's point of view.
   12. Robert S. Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:43 PM (#2667022)
I don't see why an N.L. team with Pujols at first would want Glaus.
   13. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:47 PM (#2667024)
I agree, but what's the point? Just to get Rolen out of St. Louis? I don't get it from Toronto's point of view.


Um, to get a better offensive player who's a couple of wins better on defense. Yes, Rolen sucked last year, but if the surgery to restore his shoulder's range of motion wasn't successful then the Blue Jays simply cancel the trade.
   14. DCW3 Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:51 PM (#2667026)
I don't get it from Toronto's point of view.

If Rolen can rebound to even being an average hitter, then I think he's a clearly better player than Glaus. And if he can somehow bounce back to his 2006 level, then the gap widens considerably.
   15. MSI Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:58 PM (#2667030)
Part of the logic is that Ricciardi probably sees 3 years of Rolen as a good thing, because in the next 2-3 years, theres really no good 3b that are going to be on the market, except for Miguel Cabrera, who might not even be a 3b by then anyway. However, considering both are injury risks, and you get compensation picks, it might be better to have the guy with the shorter contract.
   16. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 12, 2008 at 07:58 PM (#2667031)
Rolen is moving to the more challenging league and a stronger division. He could recover some of his old self and just be average in his new surroundings.
   17. I Am Not a Number Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:08 PM (#2667035)
but if the surgery to restore his shoulder's range of motion wasn't successful then the Blue Jays simply cancel the trade.

I don't pretend to know, but can a true determination of the state of Rolen's shoulder be made in a doctor's office? Or can such a thing only truly be determined on the playing field? And from the Cardinals' perspective, can they make a call on the state of Glaus' heel without actually seeing him play?

As a layperson, I can't help but feel that there will be a lot of "well, you seem healthy enough".
   18. greenback Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2667037)
Pujols has elbow problems that probably will require TJ surgery at some point in his career. I don't think they want him letting loose over at 3b.

Remind me again why La Russa wanted to spend valuable drinking time in his golden years managing a fifth-place team?


Four million bucks a year buys a lot of good wine.
   19. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2667038)
I'm really not seeing how Rolen is supposedly offensively superior to Glaus going forward.

To me it's Glaus' bat versus Rolen's glove versus the extra money. And while Rolen's bat looks like it could improve if his health does, Glaus had a decent year with the glove last year and he too could be better with the glove with better health.

I don't know, Rolen could wind up being the better player (about 50/50 in my mind), but as a slam dunk? No way.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2667039)

I don't pretend to know, but can a true determination of the state of Rolen's shoulder be made in a doctor's office? Or can such a thing only truly be determined on the playing field? And from the Cardinals' perspective, can they make a call on the state of Glaus' heel without actually seeing him play?

As a layperson, I can't help but feel that there will be a lot of "well, you seem healthy enough".


Hopefully its not the same docs that deemed Mike Sirotka healthy. Hi everybody!
   21. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:14 PM (#2667040)
Strength and range of motion can be assessed pretty accurately. The problem last season was very limited range of motion due to scar tissue build-up from the previous surgery (And inadequate followup). The Blue Jays will be able to assess the ROM very accurately. They won't have quite that much precision for strength testing, but they will be able to tell if it's functionally limited.
   22. Moses Taylor demands to be housewarmed Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:14 PM (#2667041)
Harvey, remember all those players with steriod whispers linked to La Russa? Glaus was destined to play for Tony...
   23. Walt Davis Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:28 PM (#2667044)
What an example of how much the game has changed? Here's Glaus and his top comp through age 30 at b-r:

Glaus 766 r, 1124 h, 240 2B, 277 HR, 778 RBI, 701 BB, 1165 K, 254/358/500
Comp 778 r, 1104 h, 208 2B, 283 HR, 787 RBI, 778 BB, 1077 K, 259/375/528

That comp is Mike Schmidt. Incredibly close in raw numbers. Even the doubles are close if you adjust for Schmidt's speed (i.e. he has 30 more triples which would erase the doubles gap).

Of course, Glaus has an OPS+ of 121, Schmidt of 144. About half of that difference is era (and possibly parks).

Projecting these guys forward as hitters, even without the injuries, would be an interesting sabermetric exercise. Rolen's the better career hitter but hasn't been as good lately. Glaus is two years younger but has "old man skills" (at least as a hitter).

Glaus does have a reasonable shot at 500 HR still.
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:40 PM (#2667049)
Wasn't Glaus on the fake-NBC PEDs list?
   25. Morally Excellent Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:43 PM (#2667053)
Wasn't Glaus on the fake-NBC PEDs list?

Twice!

Supposedly he bought testosterone in 2003-2004 when he was dead.
   26. kwarren Posted: January 12, 2008 at 08:53 PM (#2667059)
Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: January 12, 2008 at 02:08 PM (#2667005)

chick--his bat has been gone for a while now, but the glove is still intact. i'll miss that.


Hey Taguchi

I resemble that remark. Check out my 2006 season. 369 OBA, 518 SLG, with 48 doubles tossed in. And I'm healthy now!

All the best, Scott
   27. AROM Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:00 PM (#2667060)
True or false: Scott Rolen is the closest comparable today to Ron Santo.

My defensive numbers don't have Santo at quite Rolen's level of defense, but Rolen is clearly ahead of guys like Buddy Bell or Graig Nettles as a hitter, though not in the Schmidt/Brett/Larry Jones class.
   28. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:00 PM (#2667061)
Actually Glaus is only 16 months younger than Rolen. The two years is an artifact of the July 1, birthday cutoff. Still 16 months is not insignificant, particularly coupled with Rolen's trouble at the plate in two of the last three years. I'd take a healthy 27 year old Rolen over a healthy 27 year old Glaus for certain, but that's not really in play here.
   29. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:01 PM (#2667062)
that's a load of bushido scott,

love,

sotags99
   30. MSI Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:03 PM (#2667065)
Value-wise, the fact that Glaus has produced way more the last 3 years should be worth something. That and the lesser contract...if either were dealt for prospects, I'd imagine Glaus would get a better player in return.
   31. kwarren Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:04 PM (#2667066)
Here's Glaus and his top comp through age 30 at b-r:

Glaus 766 r, 1124 h, 240 2B, 277 HR, 778 RBI, 701 BB, 1165 K, 254/358/500
Comp 778 r, 1104 h, 208 2B, 283 HR, 787 RBI, 778 BB, 1077 K, 259/375/528

That comp is Mike Schmidt. Incredibly close in raw numbers. Even the doubles are close if you adjust for Schmidt's speed (i.e. he has 30 more triples which would erase the doubles gap).

Of course, Glaus has an OPS+ of 121, Schmidt of 144. About half of that difference is era (and possibly parks).



Hey Walt

How is an .858 OPS like a .903 OPS. And how is 44% above average like 21% above average. One is like all-right, the other is like all-time awesome. By my figurin I would be like more than twice as good. And hey, I could catch the ball and didn't limp around on one heel.

And Walt. Isn't OPS+ adjusted for both park and era. So 44 and 21 are what they are.

Cheers....Mike
   32. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:05 PM (#2667067)
Glaus could actually wind up with a fascinating Hall of Fame case depending on how long he holds up. The minuses (his erratic glove and injuries) and pluses (homers and walks, unbelievable postseason performances) could wind up being interesting if he puts in 6 more years of Glaus-esque numbers.
   33. Maury Brown Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:12 PM (#2667072)
Rosenthal gets a LOT of scoops, doesn't he?
Arguably, the best in the biz.
   34. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:17 PM (#2667074)

To me it's Glaus' bat versus Rolen's glove versus the extra money. And while Rolen's bat looks like it could improve if his health does, Glaus had a decent year with the glove last year and he too could be better with the glove with better health.

I don't know, Rolen could wind up being the better player (about 50/50 in my mind), but as a slam dunk? No way.


Nobody can accurately handicap this trade as it is because, as far as I can tell, there is absolutely no data to hint at the prognosis of Rolen's surgery. Post-surgical frozen shoulder is an avoidable condition, and I am still shocked that the follow-up was bungled so badly. The surgical prognosis in general is pretty good, but that is for returning to general functional activities, not returning to high-level athletic play.

In short, I don't know what the odds are that Rolen's shoulder remains problematic enough that Glaus's bat outweighs Rolen's glove. I do know that in whatever percent of the time that is, the odds are high that the Blue Jays' medical staff puts an end to this trade.
   35. AJM Posted: January 12, 2008 at 09:48 PM (#2667088)
I'm glad Rolen will be out of the NL, his glove was such a pain in the ass.
   36. DCW3 Posted: January 12, 2008 at 10:05 PM (#2667092)
So are the Cardinals going to keep going until they've acquired the entire roster of the Angels' World Championship team? If this deal goes through, they'll have employed the entire starting infield.
   37. The Grich Who Stole Christmas Posted: January 12, 2008 at 10:23 PM (#2667096)
This just in: the Cardinals have signed Kevin Appier, Brad Fullmer and Benji Gil to minor-league contracts. I'm still shocked the Cards didn't snatch up Erstad before the Astros got to him.
   38. John DiFool2 Posted: January 12, 2008 at 10:34 PM (#2667098)
Glaus? HoF? 500 HRs?

No effin' way. I seriously doubt he gets to 400.

That said, Glaus might be the better bet going forward, as he is a bit younger, but really they are pretty even. Neither is exactly a paragon of health. This seems like one of those challenge trades where the players are very similar (Rolen is 7th on Glaus' age 30 list)-don't really see the point frankly. Both teams will likely get 2-3 more decent years out of each if they're lucky.
   39. SkyKing162 Posted: January 12, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#2667102)
I'm surprised Ricciardi hasn't traded for Brandon Inge. Give up a crap prospect and ask the Tigers to throw in 1/3 of Inge's salary.
   40. MSI Posted: January 12, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2667103)
Skyking: that would have been smarter, if they could get a decent prospect for Glaus.
   41. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 12, 2008 at 10:48 PM (#2667108)
both former All-Stars must pass physicals before a deal is completed.

The chances of this are what, one percent?
   42. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 12, 2008 at 11:08 PM (#2667119)
Kevin Appier is still around???? Brad Fullmer is still around???
   43. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 12:33 AM (#2667162)
Supposedly he bought testosterone in 2003-2004 when he was dead.


Glaus spent the year dead for tax purposes.
   44. Harris Posted: January 13, 2008 at 12:42 AM (#2667169)
First Bowa - now LaRussa.
Rolen and feisty managers don't get along.
   45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 12:45 AM (#2667171)

Rolen and feisty managers don't get along.


Well at least now he might get a chance to vent his frustrations by challenging his manager to a fistfight.
   46. greenback Posted: January 13, 2008 at 02:00 AM (#2667201)
So are the Cardinals going to keep going until they've acquired the entire roster of the Angels' World Championship team?

If they sign one of the other Molinas, then I hope they have a foot race of some sort.
   47. Kyle S Posted: January 13, 2008 at 02:05 AM (#2667202)
I never realized there were other Hotblack Desiato fans lurking on primer...
   48. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 03:42 AM (#2667231)
Lurking? Don't my 3000+ posts count for anything?

Otherwise, you are one hoopy frood, Kyle S.
   49. asinwreck Posted: January 13, 2008 at 04:09 AM (#2667238)
I never realized there were other Hotblack Desiato fans lurking on primer...

Busch Stadium may host Disaster Area in 2008.
   50. KJOK Posted: January 13, 2008 at 05:31 AM (#2667260)
The point of the trade, from the Cardinals view, is that Rolen and LaRussa cannot co-exist, and LaRussa isn't going anywhere this year.

IF the Cardinals can get Glaus for Rolen instead of giving him away, that's a big plus.
   51. BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona Posted: January 13, 2008 at 05:39 AM (#2667262)
This just in: the Cardinals have signed Kevin Appier, Brad Fullmer and Benji Gil to minor-league contracts. I'm still shocked the Cards didn't snatch up Erstad before the Astros got to him.


Grich this is a joke, right? Don't toy with me now. Kevin Appier is one of my all time favorites.
   52. Urban Bovine Knievel Posted: January 13, 2008 at 05:41 AM (#2667263)
I'm sad to see Rolen go as he's one of my all time favorite Cardinals, but an equal (or close to equal) player is a lot more than I expected.
   53. Walt Davis Posted: January 13, 2008 at 05:52 AM (#2667268)
Funny how some people can completely miss the point of a post. Well done, kwarren.
   54. Miguel Posted: January 13, 2008 at 05:59 AM (#2667270)
This is bizarrely blah. I guess we'll see what happens. I will miss Rolen's glove, but with the soap opera and inconsistent play it's good to move on. Even with the relentless pimping of him I guess we weren't getting any decent prospects, and I like that we're getting one less year (potentially two) of contract deadweight. Now, let's hope Troy doesn't wind up in prison (twice).
   55. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 05:59 AM (#2667271)
I don't pretend to know, but can a true determination of the state of Rolen's shoulder be made in a doctor's office? Or can such a thing only truly be determined on the playing field? And from the Cardinals' perspective, can they make a call on the state of Glaus' heel without actually seeing him play?

As a layperson, I can't help but feel that there will be a lot of "well, you seem healthy enough".


No, yes, and no, I believe.*

An office exam can give a lot of evidence toward whether a body is structurally sound, and whether there is scar tissue that might hinder motion, and so on. An exam is less successful at predicting the rate of reinjury, or whether a patient can perform exactly as before, or what kind of pain the patient may suffer in future, and so on. A lot, too, depends on whether the patient is being honest about symptoms. If a patient is determined to get back to work (or get the hell out of St. Looie) he may lie about the pain or what he can do on a regular basis in order to 'pass' the exam. There's no way to be sure without a seeing Rolen on the diamond. You'd want to see fifty throws across the diamond during a workout, then see him do it again the next day, to really know.

The Mets watched Mo Vaughan in a batting cage for all of one afternoon and decided that little show made him worth getting. [shudders, eyes glaze over, falls off chair]

Glaus does have a reasonable shot at 500 HR still.






*I'm not a doctor, but I do play one on the 'net!
   56. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 06:03 AM (#2667272)
Glaus does have a reasonable shot at 500 HR still.


Damned buttons. That was Walt's opinion from post 23, not mine.

Walt--that seems very, very optimistic. If you throw out 2003 and 2004 (which is generous to Glaus) and do a weighted 1-2-3 on his 2005-2007 seasons, he averages around 29 HR a year. He has to do that through his age 38 season to get to 500 HR. Seems to me like a small, not a reasonable, chance.
   57. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 06:09 AM (#2667275)
More details from Crasnick at ESPN:

According to a source with knowledge of the trade, the Cardinals only signed off on the deal after Glaus agreed to exercise his $11.25 million option for 2009. St. Louis management didn't want to give up three years of Rolen for only one year of Glaus, so Glaus had to commit to the option year as part of the deal.

Both players were also required to waive no-trade clauses.

A source told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark that Toronto will be responsible for the three years and $33 million left on Rolen's contract, while St. Louis will assume the $24.5 million owed Glaus through 2009. Since no cash is involved in the trade, it appears that no approval from commissioner Bud Selig's office is required.


I guess the Cardinals see the trade as a Glaus Half Full situation.
   58. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 06:13 AM (#2667277)
Look at you all of a sudden.

I thought you were just good for bizarre go Dbacks/suck it Mets posts, levski.
   59. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 06:33 AM (#2667281)
I thought you were just good for bizarre go Dbacks/suck it Mets posts, levski.


Not sure I'm good at those, however. I am good at being the loudest Dbacks fan in the universe, and in fact the loudest fan of any kind, anywhere.

Btw, I usually generate my "Omar sucks!" rants here...
   60. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: January 13, 2008 at 06:49 AM (#2667287)
Re:59, example

See, see the wright sky
Marvel at its big wagner depths.
Tell me, el duque do you
Wonder why the randolph ignores you?
Why its foobly stare
makes you feel shea.
I can tell you, it is
Worried by your delgado facial growth
That looks like
A milledge.
What's more, it knows
Your loduca potting shed
Smells of mets fan.
Everything under the big wright sky
Asks why, why do you even bother?
You only charm omar
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