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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Rosenthal: Coghlan should win NL ROY after big second half
Coghlan: “The Chairman of the Swords”. (dials local t-shirt company for production/rights info)
Coghlan, 24, is third in the N.L. in batting with a .376 average since the All-Star break. He has a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen and Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom has not played since Aug. 24 because of a bruised right knee. Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee is closer to Coghlan in OPS but has nearly 150 fewer plate appearances.
Among pitchers, Happ rates the edge over Hanson — he is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA, while Hanson is 9-3 with a 3.02 ERA. Happ also had pitched 56 more innings than Hanson before missing his start Monday with a strained side muscle.
...Well, a position player contributes every day, and the Marlins became a better team after Coghlan took over in the leadoff spot on May 30, working counts, getting on base.
Advanced defensive metrics indicate that Coghlan is below-average in left. However, he has made steady improvement after playing the position only once in the minors. The Marlins no longer are certain they will move him back to the infield at second or third next season.
One thing seems clear: The emergences of Coghlan and infielder Emilio Bonifacio have put the Marlins in better position to trade second baseman Dan Uggla and outfielder Jeremy Hermida this offseason.
Bonifacio has not proven he is a long-term answer; his OPS is the second-lowest in the NL. Still, he could end up at second next season with Coghlan moving to third. Or, Coghlan could stay in left, with Cameron Maybin playing center and Cody Ross right.
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Randy Wells. Right now Happ has a small lead in ERA, ERA+, and IP, but the difference is so small it could easily change in the next few weeks.
No, baring a no-hitter or something else dramatic, Wells has no chance.
Hanson 9-3 3.07 93 IP 78/36 K/BB 136 ERA+
Wells 10-8 2.84 139 IP 84/35 K/BB 154 ERA+
Aside from losses and K rate, Wells has him beat everywhere, sometines by a lot.
That would be Reds leadoff man Willy Taveras (.557).
Incidentally, I wonder what the historical ceiling has been for players who had years like Bonifacio's early in their careers. Rosenthal talks about him like he's got a good chance to be a solution.
OPS+ < 65, 350 minimum PA, years 1-3. 50% of games in the OF The list
27 players. Some good or at least OK ones, most no so much. Brady Anderson is far and away the best.
Coghlan: .310/.382/.448 OPS = 830 103 games 397 ab's
Jones: .303/.371/.606 OPS = 977 59 games 231 ab's
Coghlan: 9 hr 40 rbi 6 sb 2cs
Jones: 18 hr 36 rbi 9 sb 2cs
Coghlan: UZR/150 -12.5
Jones: UZR/150 -9.1
I am leaving out the pitchers so as to make this an apples to apples comparision. Is Coghlan clearly the rookie of the year? He fails to even mention Jones in his article. I realize Jones has fewer at bats and games but are their numbers so dissimilar that Jones doesn't even get a mention? Pretty poor writing. Maybe Kenny should take a look around baseball a bit more closely, you know, if you are going to write about it.
McCutchen, 2.8
Wells, 2.6
Rasmus, 2.4
G. Jones, 2.0
McGehee, 1.7
Coghlan, 1.6
Happ, 1.6
Kawakami, 1.6
Hanson, 1.4
Fowler, 0.8
Just sayin'. Plus defensive CF with a 122 OPS+ and great baserunning.
Looks like someone revised the article to include Wells.
Jones has roughly half the number of PAs. That's a lot more extreme than "fewer."
In pretty much every case where there's been a superior by rate player with half the PA, the less superior by rate player is going to win the award. I don't know whether or not that's fair, but the voters have almost always weighted playing time fairly heavily.
Even if you discount the rate states that may regress to the mean for Jones with the same number of ab's its apparent that his "counting stats" will eclipse Coghlan. I guess what I am saying is that article is awfully silly to even be writing. Coghlan is NOT a clear choice for the award. Rosenthal seems to have either forgotten or dismissed other candidates without so much as even a mention.
Heh. Didn't even realize this the first time through, but Rosenthal's wrong here, as well. McCutchen's at .832, and Coghlan's at .830. McCutchen has the higher OPS+ as well, so I'm not sure what's going on in Rosenthal's head.
-- MWE
Don't think there's a games played cap. The only restrictions for position players that I know are 130 AB or 45 days on the active roster (not counting September/October time).
In which case, it's kind of a pity that he wrote it about the wrong guy.
Nope. 45 days on the active ML roster prior to September 1, or 130 ABs. Jones was called up three times in 2007, but spent only 26 days on the active roster prior to September 1 (if I counted correctly) and had just 84 ABs.
-- MWE
EDIT: The pitching cap is 50 IP.
He also seems to be implying that there's a playing-time issue that puts Coghlan ahead of Fowler, but Fowler still has more games played and more plate appearances than Coghlan. Coghlan does have the playing-time edge over McCutchen, but I think I'd vote for McCutchen over the other two anyway.
Which is an excellent example of why WAR is a flawed statistic for pitchers. Happ has had an excellent season, even if he is unlikely to repeat it; WAR is based on FIP and thus completely misses out on that fact.
One thing you should do when doing a comparison like this, is ask whether or not that first 350 mlb PAs is reflective of where the player really was. Back when Bill James first compared rookie seasons he seemed to forget that- he'd compare 2 23 year olds who went .260/.345/.440 as rookies, but one may have hit .300/.390/.500 in the minors and the other .275/.360/.450- in 1000 PAs the first player was likely more talent than the latter even if their first 350 MLB PAs were comparable.
Bonofacio's minor league numbers fully support the idea that he can't hit his way out of a paperbag. Brady Anderson was a much better hitter in the minors than Bonifacio, he stumbled making the transition - the was bounced up and down for a couple of years-
Basically that's a convoluted way of saying:
If a batter's MLEs suck, and his first 350 MLB #s suck, the player almost certainly sucks ; if a batter's MLEs are good, and his first 350 MLB PAs suck, he might not suck, he just may be having trouble adjusting.
Bonifacio likely just sucks
Among the haul? A Tyler Houston "#1 Draft Pick" card.
There's an even more similar picture of Happ that I can't link directly to, which appears repeatedly here.
Like mirror images!
Anybody that uses a stat like FIP to argue for an end of the year award is missing the point.
I see Happ/Wells as the front runners personally and that McCutchen should get some serious consideration. But September does matter and nobody has pulled out in front and a good month can pull some of the other guys up. Jones probably still misses out due to playing time.
I'm sure it's because of the RLPA. Heck, Happ Jr's already a 31.
That's actually kind of eerie.
Oh I bet all white people look the same to you
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