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Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Rosenthal: Coghlan should win NL ROY after big second half

Coghlan: “The Chairman of the Swords”. (dials local t-shirt company for production/rights info)

Coghlan, 24, is third in the N.L. in batting with a .376 average since the All-Star break. He has a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen and Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom has not played since Aug. 24 because of a bruised right knee. Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee is closer to Coghlan in OPS but has nearly 150 fewer plate appearances.

Among pitchers, Happ rates the edge over Hanson — he is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA, while Hanson is 9-3 with a 3.02 ERA. Happ also had pitched 56 more innings than Hanson before missing his start Monday with a strained side muscle.

...Well, a position player contributes every day, and the Marlins became a better team after Coghlan took over in the leadoff spot on May 30, working counts, getting on base.

Advanced defensive metrics indicate that Coghlan is below-average in left. However, he has made steady improvement after playing the position only once in the minors. The Marlins no longer are certain they will move him back to the infield at second or third next season.

One thing seems clear: The emergences of Coghlan and infielder Emilio Bonifacio have put the Marlins in better position to trade second baseman Dan Uggla and outfielder Jeremy Hermida this offseason.

Bonifacio has not proven he is a long-term answer; his OPS is the second-lowest in the NL. Still, he could end up at second next season with Coghlan moving to third. Or, Coghlan could stay in left, with Cameron Maybin playing center and Cody Ross right.

Repoz Posted: September 08, 2009 at 10:14 AM | 32 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: September 08, 2009 at 10:28 AM (#3316526)
There's somebody with a worse OPS than Bonifacio's 613 (63 OPS+)?
   2. James Bailey Posted: September 08, 2009 at 10:42 AM (#3316529)
The argument that pitchers shouldn't be considered for MVP because they have their own award (Cy Young) is a stretch. To use it for Rookie of the Year is lame. It's not like there's a Rookie Pitcher of the Year Award. Happ is the only rookie in either league among the leaders in either batting average or ERA. He's done it for a first-place team. He's still the leader to me. Coghlan's had a nice second half, but Happ's been there all year.
   3. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 08, 2009 at 11:13 AM (#3316535)
Happ is the only rookie in either league among the leaders in either batting average or ERA.


Randy Wells. Right now Happ has a small lead in ERA, ERA+, and IP, but the difference is so small it could easily change in the next few weeks.

No, baring a no-hitter or something else dramatic, Wells has no chance.
   4. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 08, 2009 at 11:26 AM (#3316537)
In fact, I thought Rosenthal was more knowledgeable than this. How does Hanson rate a mention as a front runner and not Wells?

Hanson 9-3 3.07 93 IP 78/36 K/BB 136 ERA+
Wells 10-8 2.84 139 IP 84/35 K/BB 154 ERA+

Aside from losses and K rate, Wells has him beat everywhere, sometines by a lot.
   5. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: September 08, 2009 at 11:29 AM (#3316538)
There's somebody with a worse OPS than Bonifacio's 613 (63 OPS+)?

That would be Reds leadoff man Willy Taveras (.557).

Incidentally, I wonder what the historical ceiling has been for players who had years like Bonifacio's early in their careers. Rosenthal talks about him like he's got a good chance to be a solution.
   6. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 08, 2009 at 11:41 AM (#3316546)
Incidentally, I wonder what the historical ceiling has been for players who had years like Bonifacio's early in their careers. Rosenthal talks about him like he's got a good chance to be a solution.


OPS+ < 65, 350 minimum PA, years 1-3. 50% of games in the OF The list

27 players. Some good or at least OK ones, most no so much. Brady Anderson is far and away the best.
   7. Stratman01 Posted: September 08, 2009 at 12:18 PM (#3316571)
Coghlan's number's versus Garret Jones:

Coghlan: .310/.382/.448 OPS = 830 103 games 397 ab's

Jones: .303/.371/.606 OPS = 977 59 games 231 ab's

Coghlan: 9 hr 40 rbi 6 sb 2cs
Jones: 18 hr 36 rbi 9 sb 2cs

Coghlan: UZR/150 -12.5
Jones: UZR/150 -9.1

I am leaving out the pitchers so as to make this an apples to apples comparision. Is Coghlan clearly the rookie of the year? He fails to even mention Jones in his article. I realize Jones has fewer at bats and games but are their numbers so dissimilar that Jones doesn't even get a mention? Pretty poor writing. Maybe Kenny should take a look around baseball a bit more closely, you know, if you are going to write about it.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 08, 2009 at 12:54 PM (#3316605)
Some NL rookies, ranked by WAR:

McCutchen, 2.8
Wells, 2.6
Rasmus, 2.4
G. Jones, 2.0
McGehee, 1.7
Coghlan, 1.6
Happ, 1.6
Kawakami, 1.6
Hanson, 1.4
Fowler, 0.8

Just sayin'. Plus defensive CF with a 122 OPS+ and great baserunning.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:02 PM (#3316610)
"In fact, I thought Rosenthal was more knowledgeable than this. How does Hanson rate a mention as a front runner and not Wells?"

Looks like someone revised the article to include Wells.
   10. RJ in TO Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:03 PM (#3316612)
I realize Jones has fewer at bats and games....


Jones has roughly half the number of PAs. That's a lot more extreme than "fewer."

In pretty much every case where there's been a superior by rate player with half the PA, the less superior by rate player is going to win the award. I don't know whether or not that's fair, but the voters have almost always weighted playing time fairly heavily.
   11. Stratman01 Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:12 PM (#3316618)
And I recognize that as well. However in those many fewer at bats Jones has 3 times the number of home runs, twice the number of steals, and basically the same number of rbis while playing for a crappier team.

Even if you discount the rate states that may regress to the mean for Jones with the same number of ab's its apparent that his "counting stats" will eclipse Coghlan. I guess what I am saying is that article is awfully silly to even be writing. Coghlan is NOT a clear choice for the award. Rosenthal seems to have either forgotten or dismissed other candidates without so much as even a mention.
   12. Kyle S at work Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:12 PM (#3316621)
It says here that McCutchen is going to be a star. When I saw him play against the Phils, the line drives off his bat made a different sound. That guy is special.
   13. RJ in TO Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:19 PM (#3316631)
Wait a second - does Jones even count as a rookie? He played in 31 games with the Twins in 2007, and I thought the cutoff for rookie eligibility was 30 games.
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:20 PM (#3316633)
"He has a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen and Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom has not played since Aug. 24 because of a bruised right knee."

Heh. Didn't even realize this the first time through, but Rosenthal's wrong here, as well. McCutchen's at .832, and Coghlan's at .830. McCutchen has the higher OPS+ as well, so I'm not sure what's going on in Rosenthal's head.
   15. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:22 PM (#3316635)
I suspect Happ will get the award, simply because he's had the most publicity and he's doing it for a first-place team. I also suspect this is just Rosenthal doing one of those "hey, don't forget about this guy" columns that he does occasionally just to show that he pays attention to something other than the front-runners.

-- MWE
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:23 PM (#3316636)
"He played in 31 games with the Twins in 2007, and I thought the cutoff for rookie eligibility was 30 games."

Don't think there's a games played cap. The only restrictions for position players that I know are 130 AB or 45 days on the active roster (not counting September/October time).
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:24 PM (#3316637)
"I also suspect this is just Rosenthal doing one of those "hey, don't forget about this guy" columns that he does occasionally just to show that he pays attention to something other than the front-runners."

In which case, it's kind of a pity that he wrote it about the wrong guy.
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:27 PM (#3316639)
He played in 31 games with the Twins in 2007, and I thought the cutoff for rookie eligibility was 30 games.


Nope. 45 days on the active ML roster prior to September 1, or 130 ABs. Jones was called up three times in 2007, but spent only 26 days on the active roster prior to September 1 (if I counted correctly) and had just 84 ABs.

-- MWE

EDIT: The pitching cap is 50 IP.
   19. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:33 PM (#3316643)
"He has a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen and Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom has not played since Aug. 24 because of a bruised right knee."

Heh. Didn't even realize this the first time through, but Rosenthal's wrong here, as well. McCutchen's at .832, and Coghlan's at .830. McCutchen has the higher OPS+ as well, so I'm not sure what's going on in Rosenthal's head.


He also seems to be implying that there's a playing-time issue that puts Coghlan ahead of Fowler, but Fowler still has more games played and more plate appearances than Coghlan. Coghlan does have the playing-time edge over McCutchen, but I think I'd vote for McCutchen over the other two anyway.
   20. Barnaby Jones Posted: September 08, 2009 at 01:45 PM (#3316649)

McCutchen, 2.8
Wells, 2.6
Rasmus, 2.4
G. Jones, 2.0
McGehee, 1.7
Coghlan, 1.6
Happ, 1.6
Kawakami, 1.6
Hanson, 1.4
Fowler, 0.8


Which is an excellent example of why WAR is a flawed statistic for pitchers. Happ has had an excellent season, even if he is unlikely to repeat it; WAR is based on FIP and thus completely misses out on that fact.
   21. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 08, 2009 at 02:10 PM (#3316667)
Speaking of Chris Coghlan, apparently Nick Johnson's tutelage is responsible for his recent success. What, all the teammates he had before August 1st weren't any help at all?
   22. JPWF13 Posted: September 08, 2009 at 02:35 PM (#3316690)
One thing seems clear: The emergences of Coghlan and infielder Emilio Bonifacio have put the Marlins in better position to trade second baseman Dan Uggla and outfielder Jeremy Hermida this offseason.


OPS+ < 65, 350 minimum PA, years 1-3. 50% of games in the OF The list

27 players. Some good or at least OK ones, most no so much. Brady Anderson is far and away the best.


One thing you should do when doing a comparison like this, is ask whether or not that first 350 mlb PAs is reflective of where the player really was. Back when Bill James first compared rookie seasons he seemed to forget that- he'd compare 2 23 year olds who went .260/.345/.440 as rookies, but one may have hit .300/.390/.500 in the minors and the other .275/.360/.450- in 1000 PAs the first player was likely more talent than the latter even if their first 350 MLB PAs were comparable.

Bonofacio's minor league numbers fully support the idea that he can't hit his way out of a paperbag. Brady Anderson was a much better hitter in the minors than Bonifacio, he stumbled making the transition - the was bounced up and down for a couple of years-
Basically that's a convoluted way of saying:
If a batter's MLEs suck, and his first 350 MLB #s suck, the player almost certainly sucks ; if a batter's MLEs are good, and his first 350 MLB PAs suck, he might not suck, he just may be having trouble adjusting.

Bonifacio likely just sucks
   23. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: September 08, 2009 at 02:40 PM (#3316696)
I wonder why I had it in my head that Happ had been around for a while.
   24. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 08, 2009 at 02:42 PM (#3316699)
Maybe you had him confused with Kyle Kendrick. They look pretty similar.
   25. Sam Hutcheson is the 'saur with the rainbow roar Posted: September 08, 2009 at 06:55 PM (#3316923)
Wow. Dropping the Kyle Kendrick comp. You are a cruel man.
   26. Lassus: Posted: September 08, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3316927)
Speaking of rookies and the Braves and seeing you, Sam - I just bought a Topps 1990 pack out of a vending machine for 75 cents.

Among the haul? A Tyler Houston "#1 Draft Pick" card.
   27. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 08, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3316929)
No, I mean they look similar physically. Happ Kendrick

There's an even more similar picture of Happ that I can't link directly to, which appears repeatedly here.

Like mirror images!
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: September 08, 2009 at 07:07 PM (#3316942)
Which is an excellent example of why WAR is a flawed statistic for pitchers. Happ has had an excellent season, even if he is unlikely to repeat it; WAR is based on FIP and thus completely misses out on that fact.

Anybody that uses a stat like FIP to argue for an end of the year award is missing the point.

I see Happ/Wells as the front runners personally and that McCutchen should get some serious consideration. But September does matter and nobody has pulled out in front and a good month can pull some of the other guys up. Jones probably still misses out due to playing time.
   29. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: September 08, 2009 at 07:32 PM (#3316970)
I wonder why I had it in my head that Happ had been around for a while.


I'm sure it's because of the RLPA. Heck, Happ Jr's already a 31.
   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 08, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3317071)
"No, I mean they look similar physically. Happ Kendrick"

That's actually kind of eerie.
   31. Greg (U)K Posted: September 08, 2009 at 10:13 PM (#3317105)
No, I mean they look similar physically.

Oh I bet all white people look the same to you
   32. AJM Posted: September 08, 2009 at 11:36 PM (#3317196)
I didn't know Sandoval played so much last year.
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