Vlad is 32? He runs like he is 60.

Also, end the foxhole crap.

What is up with the sell low trade proposals? Cano and Byrnes are going to be traded?

Byrnes for Gary Matthews Jr.?

Seems like an unfair trade to both sides.

I wouldn't be looking to trade Hardy. It's not like the Brewers are getting much out of 2nd or 3rd. There should be room for him and Escobar in the infield.

Hardy, if he's on the market, will be in serious demand.

He led National League shortstops with 74 RBIs

What about Ramirez?

Then I looked the numbers up, and Hanley had a season for the ages. 33 homers and only 67 RBI. I know he's leadoff, and likely doesn't mean anything negative production-wise, but still looks weird.

I wouldn't be looking to trade Hardy. It's not like the Brewers are getting much out of 2nd or 3rd. There should be room for him and Escobar in the infield.

I heartily agree; Weeks is the guy needing a change of scenery.

Hardy would be great at third base - my impression is he has a very strong arm but a touch lacking in the range department at SS.

Vlad is 32? He runs like he is 60.

Seriously. I think he'll be done in 3 years. His body looks like it's falling apart. Odd, because I had the sense he used to be such a lithe, graceful athlete. Maybe I didn't watch enough Expos games.

Maybe I didn't watch enough Expos games.

That's nothing to be ashamed of. Nobody did...which makes me less confident that he'll go into the Hall as an Expo.

He's always had an awkward body type but he used to run fairly well and had some good SB totals (some bad CS totals, too, though). As long as he can still rake, it won't matter how ugly his body looks.

One of my favorite things about Vlad is that he went so relentlessly for 40/40 when he had the chance. With about a week or 10 days left in the season, I think he had about 38 HRs and 35 steals, then went crazy, trying to steal almost every time he got on and going 5-11 or something in the last week. I think he got his 40 steals, but came up one HR short.

Hopefully Scioscia doesn't make the same mistake he did with Salmon and instead put Vlad at DH every day for the rest of his career.

33 homers and only 67 RBI

Wow! I think that's a new leader. I know Chris Hoiles' 40 RBI and 20 HR in 92 is technically fewer RBI/HR but I find 67/33 even more impressive.

Leon Durham's 1987 with 27 HR and 63 RBI is also pretty impressive given he batted 3/4/5 almost the whole season. He had 182 PA in the #4 spot and hit 295/357/518 with 9 HR ... and 16 RBI. That was 49 hits including 10 doubles and 9 HR in the #4 spot and 16 RBI.

You would think the 87 Cubs had a wee OBP problem at the top of the order ... but for the season, the #1 and #2 spots had OBPs over 350. Everybody else who hit 3/4 that year cleaned up. The Cubs #3 spot got 133 RBI the #4 spot 98 (meaning the other guys got 82 RBI in about 525 PA). That was Dawson's MVP year and he was #3 most of the time and he was either clearing the bases with HR or not getting on base for Durham all year.

Note, it came as a shock to me that the top of the order was that good. They not only got on base, they slugged pretty well. The top ws a mix of Dave Martinez, Bob Dernier (295/357/464!!), Chico Walker (ummm... 193/277/216) and a little Sandberg. The #2 spot was Sandberg (standard year) and Jerry Mumphrey (career year).

And wow ... a Cub player I've never heard of got 190 PA. Paul Noce, a 2B/SS, 228/261/350. Already 27, he got one more PA in 1990. I mean there are plenty of guys I'll see on a Cub roster and think "wow, forgot about him" and of course plenty of guys who got a PA or IP here or there in cups of coffee. But a guy who played 1/3 of a season whose name means absolutely nothing to me? That's very rare.

Back to Dernier ... for he season he slugged 497. His career SLG was 333! Ignoring 11 AB at the start of his career, his other season high was 362. Yeah, yeah, it was only 220 PA but Brady Anderson's 50 HR season still pales in comparison to that.

Then I looked the numbers up, and Hanley had a season for the ages. 33 homers and only 67 RBI.

I'm more impressed by Willy Taveras's 68 steals and only 64 runs scored this year. That seems almost impossible. And it's not like the people batting behind him had terrible OBP or SLG either.

Hanley's season is not the worst RBI count with more than 30 homers, but it is 3rd least (tied). It is the least with 33 or more homers though.

Players with at least 40 steals and more steals than runs:

And Rickey hit 9 and 10 HR in those years. Raines hit 5 in his.

One of my favorite things about Vlad is that he went so relentlessly for 40/40 when he had the chance. With about a week or 10 days left in the season, I think he had about 38 HRs and 35 steals, then went crazy, trying to steal almost every time he got on and going 5-11 or something in the last week. I think he got his 40 steals, but came up one HR short.

I remember he hit a double in last week of the season that bounced off the very top of the wall and back into play.

I've been a huge Vlad fan since he basically made the majors, so I'm hoping he can plug along until he starts hitting the milestones. I hope for his sake he becomes a permanent DH, because his fielding is pretty bad, and it'll be easier to stay in the line-up as a hitter only.

I'm impressed with that more steals than runs list, it never occurred to me that such a thing had happened. Miguel Dilone deserves some sort of prize.

"The Padres finished the season with a payroll of approximately $70 million. GM Kevin Towers says he expects that number to be lower next season, but not as low as the $40 to $45 million range that some have speculated upon".

I don't follow SD that closely, can somebody explain why the Pads would have to try and run with a <70M payroll? "Speculation" of a 40-45M payroll is just fantasy, I hope. I have faith I could take the TV money and run a MLB team in my back yard with a $45M payroll, so aside from vermin like Dave "we lost 20M this/every year" Samson, what team/media base thinks that $45M is a legit number for a MLB team to aim for?

I'm impressed with that more steals than runs list, it never occurred to me that such a thing had happened. Miguel Dilone deserves some sort of prize.

He pinch ran a lot.

I'm impressed with that more steals than runs list

Just kinda highlights how little steals add to scoring. Most of the time, standing on 2B instead of 1B doesn't increase your chances of scoring that much. Then you add in the times caught stealing.

I don't follow SD that closely, can somebody explain why the Pads would have to try and run with a <70M payroll? "Speculation" of a 40-45M payroll is just fantasy, I hope. I have faith I could take the TV money and run a MLB team in my back yard with a $45M payroll, so aside from vermin like Dave "we lost 20M this/every year" Samson, what team/media base thinks that $45M is a legit number for a MLB team to aim for?

The number will be closer to $55M.

The owner, John Moores, after a 30 year marriage, is going through a divorce. They will be splitting the assets evenly, and the Padres are one of their largest, if not thee largest asset. So the conspiracy guys think that is why payroll is being slashed. I hear that a lot. Conspiracy or not, the team will probably hit the market within the next year or two.

Also Greg Maddux $10M, Michael Barrett $3.5M, Josh Bard $2.2M, Tadahito Iguchi $3.8M and Jim Edmonds $5.7M are all coming off the books. Their jobs are going to be taken over by some of Sandy Aldersons/Grady Fusons wonderful kids, all making the league minimum. The two of them, with the help of Paul DePodesta, are installing a system just like they set up in Oakland in the 90's. The system Billy the Beane gets all the credit for.

Will Venable CF, Chase Headley LF, Nick Hundley C, Matt Antonelli 2B, Josh Geer P and Wade Leblanc P, will be the 2009 face of the padres. Geer and LeBlanc are probably only short term solutions, but there is even more pitching on the way. The other players are the "future" of the Padres, again, with even more on the way.

The only free agents the friars might bring in this winter, will be bullpen and bench guys. The team that was on the field at the end of the year, the last few months basically, is the team that we can expect to see next season. That team costs about $25 million less.

The two largest financial decisions the friars have to make this winter are Brian Giles and Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman is a free agent who wants to come back, and should be brought back. He will probably cost about 7 million, with favorable options.

Giles is a 10/5 guy. He will make $9M next year, and very much wants to stay in San Diego. He is from San Diego after all. Giles exercised his right to block a trade to Boston this past summer. San Diego has a $3M buy out on Brian Giles, and if they don't want to pay the $9M they are going to have to cut him. They can't trade him because Giles would simply block, and why wouldn't he. He stands to make $3M, and then become a free agent. So odds are that Giles will be back, again, as he should be.

If neither Giles or Hoffman are brought back, the payroll could be closer to 45M. Thats the number the media has been spinning. But i think they are both coming back, and the payroll will be about $55M.

Hardy would be a good defensive fit at 3B. Escobar would provide below average offense but is expected to be very good defensively. Making that move is probably the best use of talent for 2009.

The Brewers just have to decide how they want to move pieces in the future. Mat Gamel is one of the Brewers top 3 prospects and his position is 3B, but he has error totals of 34, 53 and 30 the last 3 years. Gamel will be in AAA at 3B next year and will need to prove he can handle the position. If he can't, the team would probably be better off signing Hardy to play 3B for a few years and prepping Gamel to play 1B to replace Fielder (hopefully traded for a SP) or in the OF (Hart was decent for most of the year, but just plummeted in September).

There has also been talk that Hardy wouldn't want to move to 3B because it would hurt his future value when he becomes a FA. The team could tell him to shut up and play, but Hardy seems to be a sensitive player and performs best when he thinks he is being used best. Small example, Hardy hated batting 7th during the pitcher batting 8th experiment, and his stats were poor in that period: OPS of .704 in those 156 PAs. I think he just started poorly, and then blamed the batting order partially for his lack of success. After awhile it became self-fulfilling until he asked to be moved out of that spot and he started hitting better. It's all armchair psychology, but the point is that the Brewers have reason to believe that if they move Hardy to 3B against his wishes, they may not get the best performance out of him.

Whenever Vlad runs, it looks as if he's running with a pair of injured knees. Either that or he has replaced halves of each leg with mini-stilts. That's how awkward he runs. It pains me to watch him run (especially when he's trying in vain for the 150th time to get an extra base) and though he still has a rocket-arm, he's increasingly vulnerable and sometimes embarrassing in the field. I guess he'll be okay with the Angels (and/or eventually with another AL team) as a DH over the next 5 years or so, but I think he really needs a few more great years (and maybe a little postseason success) to be a HOF guy.

It's not 30 homeruns, but I always thought Larry Walker had a weird rbi line in 1998. In 524 plate appearances, he hit .363/.445/.630, with 23 homers and 46 doubles, yet somehow finished with only 67 rbi's (in Coors Field, no less!). His runs scored total (113) is much closer to what you'd expect from a season like this (158 OPS+).


but I think he (Vlad) really needs a few more great years (and maybe a little postseason success) to be a HOF guy.

Are you talking about the Hall of Merit? Because barring steroid revelations or a sudden career ending injury, Vlad's pretty much a lock for the HOF. He's going to retire with an average well over .300, and unless he absolutely falls off a cliff he'll pass 500 homers, or at the very least come really, really close. He's got an MVP and five other top ten finishes (including two thirds and a fourth), eight all star appearances, seven silver sluggers, eight 30 homer seasons, nine 100 rbi seasons, and four 200 hit seasons. He'll make the HOF easy...

Yeah, I just ran some hypothetical numbers and there's basically no way Vlad doesn't end up in Cooperstown. He's only 32, so he should be able to play at least another 5 seasons (especially if he becomes a full time DH at some point). With 392 homers already, he'd only need to average 22 over those five years to reach 500. Even expecting a big dropoff - let's say he hits .275 in 500 at bats each year with 75 rbi's - that still gives him 2826 hits, 1643 rbi's, and a .310 lifetime batting average to go with those 502 homeruns.

Those numbers would get Vlad into the HOF on the first ballot. Yes, I realize he could suffer a season ending injury and not get the playing time to do this, but it's just as likely that he won't drop off as quickly as my predictions and finish with even better numbers. He's in.

As was discussed earlier this year Hardy is NOT going anywhere relative to trades.

If he does change positions it's second base. With the final piece to the CC trade being Brantley the Crew has a prospect at third in Greene if Gamel simply can't handle the hot corner.

The only caveat is if the rumors about Peavy's being on the market are true. I could see Melvin backing up the truck to make that happen give the departure of CC/Ben.

Rent's facts are right, but I think his spin is excessively optimistic. Antonelli, Headley, Hundley and Venable are all OK--probably--but no more than that. Antonelli hit about .210 in AAA this year. Geer and LeBlanc are just filler--Geer MAY be a little more than that.

As far as payroll, although the PETCO deal essentially put Moores in the downtown land development business, he has had some trouble with some of his other ventures, and like Larry Lucchino, is a constant whiner/poor-mouther.

Personally, I would let Hoffman leave, although he has replaced Gwynn as the face of the organization and there would be a huge PR hit. If Giles wants to stay,I'd keep him as he is still the best OBP guy on the team. Giles would help the Angels if they were interested, and as an SD native, I think he'd be happy doing some commuting and playing for a winner.

The only caveat is if the rumors about Peavy's being on the market are true.

I seriously doubt this. Peavy is popular and his contract is very reasonable. In spite of their record, I doubt the Padres see themselves as being a million miles from contention in the NL West. The Dodgers may well be in the World Series, but neither the LA nor AZ powerhouses we were warned about have as yet materialized. Ramirez may walk and even if he does stay, there will be negatives to that. Dunn may well be elsewhere also. The Rockies are just OK, and the Giants made some progress this year, but remain a weak organization.

The Padres are IMO in pretty bad shape, but I would guess that the braintrust feels with better luck and a couple of good moves they can get back up to the 80-85 win range without damaging the long-term, so I would be very surprised if they moved Peavy.

Vlad is 32? He runs like he is 60.

You try playing for six years on solid concrete. That stadium probably took two or three years off his career.

Guerrero, as we saw in Game 1, can barely move on the basepaths.

As bad as he looks, he still has decent speed when he's moving. He's awful out of the box, though. He may be slower than Bengie Molina from home to first, and I'm not convinced it's entirely a physical thing.