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Friday, November 13, 2009

Rosenthal: Plenty of tough choices ahead for Epstein, BoSox

As statesman turned ranger, George La Rue Washington, once said…“It is impossible to rightly govern a Red Sox Nation without God and the Pinstriped Bible.”

Yes, I’m talking about a possible step back competitively — not an easy thing to do for a franchise that sells out every game and answers to a “Nation” of rabid followers. Maybe Epstein could pull off the transition seamlessly, taking the kids he acquired for Beckett, adding a few of his own youngsters and coming up with Hernandez, like some kind of baseball magician. Chances are, it would not be that easy.

Privately, the Sox acknowledge that they cannot field a good young team again until 2012. By then, top prospects such as center fielder Ryan Westmoreland and pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelly should be ready, and players such as second baseman Dustin Pedroia, left-hander Jon Lester and right-hander Clay Buchholz will be in their primes.

The trick for Epstein is to get from here to there while keeping the team as strong as possible. The Red Sox, drawing on vast financial resources, maintain a huge edge over low-revenue clubs such as the Rays, who must win while their windows are open, or else. But even the Sox go through cycles. The Yankees, when their older stars begin to fade, will, too.

Repoz Posted: November 13, 2009 at 07:19 PM | 29 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Dale Sams Posted: November 13, 2009 at 07:48 PM (#3387294)
A healthy Lowell
Trim Papi
Pedroia
Youkilis
V-Mart
Ellsbury
Drew
fill in the blank LF-SS
Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Buchholz, Wake/Bedard/whoever...etc..

That's still a very nice *possible* team

A lot will depend on whether the Yanks get old soon, who they get...etc...and whether the Rays can pull it back together.

Personally I think the Sox will miss 2cnd place by a couple of games in 2010.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2009 at 07:57 PM (#3387305)
Yes, I’m talking about a possible step back competitively

The Red Sox should never have to do this deliberately. They have the resources to constantly reload on the fly, just like the Yankees.

The only reason to do this is if ownership won't permit a higher payroll b/c they prefer the profits to winning more games.
   3. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:08 PM (#3387323)
The Yankees, when their older stars begin to fade, will, too.
This marks the 17th consecutive offseason where someone predicted that the Yankees were about to collapse because their players are so old.
   4. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:11 PM (#3387330)
The Mariners should not ever feel compelled to trade Felix Hernandez. Same with the Twins and Joe Mauer.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:16 PM (#3387336)
The Mariners should not ever feel compelled to trade Felix Hernandez. Same with the Twins and Joe Mauer.

No, no they shouldn't. Seattle is a large market team, and Minnesota just extorted a new stadium and should be rolling in dough.

People wouldn't have a chance to ##### about the Yankees signing free agents if the other teams did the right thing and reinvested some of their substantial profits in locking up their stars.
   6. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:17 PM (#3387337)
The only reason to do this is if ownership won't permit a higher payroll b/c they prefer the profits to winning more games.

As opposed to the Yankees, who can spend whatever they want and still make a profit? Why should owners be expected to run their team as a non-profit organizations?
   7. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:19 PM (#3387339)
C Martinez 100 Varitek 60
1 Youkilis 120 Martinez 40
2 Pedroia 160
S Lowrie 80 ??? 80
3 Lowell 120 Youkilis 40
L Hermida 160
C Ellsbury 160
R Drew 120 ??? 40
D Ortiz 120 Lowell 40

That's the plan right now. Of course that's a good team, but is it the best team within grasp and reason? Hardly.

SP Beckett
SP Lester
SP Matsuzaka
SP Buchholz
SP Wakefield
SP ???

Man, if they add Smoltz and Penny they'd have a ton of depth. A ton!
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:23 PM (#3387341)
As opposed to the Yankees, who can spend whatever they want and still make a profit? Why should owners be expected to run their team as a non-profit organizations?

Do you really think the Red Sox can't spend up to at least the luxury tax thresh-hold (~170M) and still make money?

Forbes has them at $269M in 2008, plus you have to figure in tens of millions they hide through NESN.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:25 PM (#3387346)
Privately, the Sox acknowledge that they cannot field a good young team again until 2012. By then, top prospects such as center fielder Ryan Westmoreland and pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelly should be ready


this sentence confuses me. Even if they will be ready to play in the bigs, more likely than not it will be before their prime. Does the 2012 team in any way project to be better than the 2010 one?
   10. AROM Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:27 PM (#3387348)
This marks the 17th consecutive offseason where someone predicted that the Yankees were about to collapse because their players are so old.


In other words, all the way back to Derek Jeter's teen years. And what do you know, in that time Tony Fernandez did indeed get old.
   11. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3387350)
The Yankees, when their older stars begin to fade, will, too.

Wrong. Yankees players never suffer the supposed ill effects of aging.
   12. RJ not in TO Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:29 PM (#3387353)
Wrong. Yankees players never suffer the supposed ill effects of aging.


So wtf happened to Bernie then?
   13. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:31 PM (#3387356)
Jorge Posada is made of unicorns and rainbows. I'm entirely serious.
   14. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:33 PM (#3387357)
So wtf happened to Bernie then?

He was invulnerable, except that Thetis held him by the knee when she dipped him in the holy fire and it was thus that he was undone in 2003.
   15. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3387359)
If Jeter, Posada and Mo don't start showing their age next year, I'm just going to assume the Yankees have commissioned the creation of some kind of undetectable designer steroid. You won't be able to convince me otherwise.
   16. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3387360)
Well, Rivera is actually a robot, so he doesn't count in the aging problem.
   17. RJ not in TO Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:37 PM (#3387362)
If Jeter, Posada and Mo don't start showing their age next year, I'm just going to assume the Yankees have commissioned the creation of some kind of undetectable designer steroid. You won't be able to convince me otherwise.


Jeter and Posada, sure, but at this point I am convinced that Mariano is a robot or at least a cyborg of some sort.

EDIT: beaten to the punch by Biff.
   18. DKDC Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:38 PM (#3387364)
As tantalizing as it is to root for the Yankees to implode under the weight of their agig lineup, it’s pretty unlikely to happen.

Individual players as a whole see their performance decline gradually as they age, and when you average that out to an entire lineup, it should appear even more gradual. Without even accounting for the Yankees unlimited resources to reload with younger free agents and trades for players other teams can't afford, it’s a bit of a pipe dream to hope the lineup falls off a cliff.

However, it does seem likely that the Yanks offense will take a step back in 2010, given how nearly the entire lineup performed above career averages. in 2009.
   19. ekogan Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:52 PM (#3387377)
L Hermida 160

You're correct about the rest, but I would think that Hermida is only a backup plan if they don't sign either Bay or Holliday.
Still, even with Hermida in LF, this is a playoff contender, with loss of Bay balanced out by a (knock on wood) good year from Dice-K and
upgrading from Varitek to Victor Martinez. Don't forget that a bunch of things went wrong for the Red Sox in 2009 - Matsuzaka and Papi stopped performing, all the shortstops sucked, and the team still won 95 games.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2009 at 08:55 PM (#3387381)
However, it does seem likely that the Yanks offense will take a step back in 2010, given how nearly the entire lineup performed above career averages. in 2009.

True. I'd expect somewhat worse offense and somewhat better pitching.
   21. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 13, 2009 at 09:39 PM (#3387423)
Ekogan,

You are correct, hence the "is it the best team within grasp and reason? Hardly."

I love what the Sox are doing, btw. What sinks most teams' seasons is a lack of depth when a star gets injured or someone falls off a cliff productively. The Red Sox are so much fun to play "what will they do in the offseason?!" with precisely because you feel like all options are on the table. I mean, look at that Martinez/Lowell/Youkilis C/1B/3B/DH platoon they've got in the works. That's cool, man.

Flexibility is huge, big, key, mammoth, and Theo knows it. Guys like DeRosa are worth way more than their 105 OPS+ would suggest. Same with Mark Teahen, SNAPPER(!!1!~1!).
   22. SteveF Posted: November 13, 2009 at 10:01 PM (#3387436)
Forbes has them at $269M in 2008, plus you have to figure in tens of millions they hide through NESN.


Yeah. I don't buy the Forbes figures either. I'm sure the actual revenues are like 10-20% higher, especially in the case of teams that own their own cable distribution.

But it's also true the costs involved in running a baseball team (and being part owner of a cable network) go beyond the 40 man roster. There's other employees to pay, of course. Building maintenance. Real Estate taxes. I haven't got a clue how much more cash that entails.

And of course some of the revenue you are citing the Red Sox must share with other teams.

I honestly haven't got a clue how high they could go in payroll without operating at a loss. The people who get involved in owning sports franchises -- especially one like the Boston Red Sox -- usually want to win. But in my experience rich people also tend to be rich (partly) because they looooooooove money, perhaps even more than they like winning.
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 13, 2009 at 10:13 PM (#3387449)
3 Lowell 120 Youkilis 40
L Hermida 160
C Ellsbury 160
R Drew 120 ??? 40
D Ortiz 120 Lowell 40


I'll take the under on Lowell playing 160 games. And more than likely on anybody else not named Cal.
   24. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2009 at 10:22 PM (#3387458)
well obviously all those game played things were just the best-case scenario plan. Even an all-goes-right scenario can't slot JD Drew in for 160 though.
   25. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 13, 2009 at 10:36 PM (#3387466)
Yep, what Double N said. If all goes well Lowell can play a full season (with a quarter of those being DH). Drew will eternally be a 120-130 man, though.
   26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 13, 2009 at 10:42 PM (#3387470)
Ortiz will play a lot more than 120 games in a best case scenario plan - I'd put that at 140-150. That drops Lowell to a total of 130 or so, which is a much more reasonable best-case for him.
   27. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 13, 2009 at 10:50 PM (#3387477)
See, I chalk that up to Ortiz not fully bouncing back. But your scenario is just as plausible as mine, of course.
   28. Darren Posted: November 14, 2009 at 02:14 AM (#3387528)
3 Lowell 120 Youkilis 40
L Hermida 160
C Ellsbury 160
R Drew 120 ??? 40
D Ortiz 120 Lowell 40


This is close but you left out one person who will play quite a bit too, IMHO: Kotchman.

Here's how I see a very interesting shuffle of players breaking down:

C Martinez 120 Varitek 42
1 Youkilis 40 Kotchman 92 Martinez 30
3 Lowell 52 Youkilis 110
D Ortiz 122 Lowell 40

Basically, Tek only faces lefties and Kotchman and Ortiz only face righties. Lowell or Kotchman's 92 games a piece may vary depending on whether they decide Lowell can field or Kotchman can hit. Basically, it's a classic Red Sox cluster**** of depth.
   29. dangnewt Posted: November 14, 2009 at 06:36 PM (#3387719)
To me the trick for Theo is not to panic and sign non-elite free agents to long-term contracts and block the path of the prospects. The difficult part of the trick is valuing your prospects correctly and accurately projecting when they get integrated into the lineup. The Sox have done a pretty good job with it lately with Pedroia, Ellsbury, Bard, and Buchholz (certainly the bumpiest road of this group and it appears that Buchholz is with the team as much because other teams didn't jump on a trade with Buchholz in it). Lowrie has had the injury issues to deal with.
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