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Find out where we should point our pitchforks and we'll point them.
Robo's article really took the oomph out of that snark.
Dick Young wrote, after Willie Mays did not get a unanimous vote "These guys wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ--after all, he dropped the cross three times"
I hated Young back in my Sporting News reading days, but I have to admit that's a funny quip.
Right.
There ARE an awful lot of voters that frankly, shouldn't have votes. Especially with newspapers dying left and right, it's well past time for the BBWAA to address the other side of the coin. They took care of one side by adding some netizens - now they need to fix the flip-side by pruning the dead weight.
And the only way to deal with clueless HoF voters is by random, unannounced testing of their baseball knowledge prior to mailing them a ballot. What you've got out there is a minority of writers who are the functional equivalent of Birthers and Truthers***, and with 75% required for induction, it doesn't take too many of these bozos to gum up the works.
***meaning people who have no interest in listening to anyone but themselves
This process is about getting it right over time. They will in Alomar's case.
Games played for New York teams are worth more than games played for all other teams combined. Duh.
Rosenthal basically wants to strip people of their votes because they don't put in the work. He says:
He then enunciates the following reasons:
1) The First-Ballot honour - he 'respects' the view that maybe Alomar isn't inner-circle.
2) The spitting incident - yes, people should move on, and they've got 14 more years to do so. Penance involves a penalty.
3) The cliff-diving once he joined the Mets.
Having then described three sound reasons for not voting for Alomar the first time round, Rosenthal appoints himself judge and jury to say
Is it? You don't have to be a New York sportswriter or fan to be annoyed about Alomar's time with the Mets, if you are really being objective about his claim to Fame. It's just as meaningful to anyone who is a real baseball fan.
If this article needs to be written next year, I'm more likely to think he's right, and we need a Pride's Purge of the BBWAA. But at the moment, Rosenthal is really calling for a Yezhovshchina.
Tim Raines, Alan Trammell -- those are snubs.
Amen.
1) The First-Ballot honour - he 'respects' the view that maybe Alomar isn't inner-circle.
2) The spitting incident - yes, people should move on, and they've got 14 more years to do so. Penance involves a penalty.
3) The cliff-diving once he joined the Mets.
And the problem with these people is not, as Rosenthal claims, that they're uneducated or don't take the voting privilege seriously. It's that they're idiots and megalomaniacs.
That's really the stupidest one of all, though. I believe it's been shown that there really isn't a voting bias for players that starred in NY, but would anyone even remember his rapid descent into crapiness if it had happened in Florida (Dawson), Atlanta (Sutter), or Tampa (Boggs)?
It's stupid stuff like this that makes non-NYers hate New York.
I'll have to think about this, it's an interesting idea (outside of the, frankly, bad job I think the BBWAA did in their collective voting this year). I'm certainly against pruning their ranks based on age/time of service ... but the notion that voting is a privilege that should be earned beyond having been a member for X length of time is appealing.
I'm curious as to what the standards and material of such a test would be. Would it be "open book" (I can't imagine that it would be proctored - more like, 'fill out this questionaire')? How subjective would it be? Etc...
Yeah, I don't get it either. If there are legit reasons to not vote for Alomar (not saying the above are, but Robo is), then one cannot complain that so many did not vote for the guy. It's not like there is a limited supply of uses of the reasons. "Sorry. 20 people already used the no first ballot exception. We're all out."
It's like people complaining that "No, he's obviously not a HOFer, but I'm outraged that he didn't get 5% !"
I think that just means that he was done as an effective player at age 33. I don't think where it happens mattered much.
Alomar isn't inner circle, so I really don't see why him waiting one year is so bad.
And that's fine - but I do think Chass/whomever cited the "big stage" or somesuch...
And oh by the way all, Roll Tide!!
Where does your inner circle end, I guess becomes the issue. I have him as the #5 or 6 secondbasemen of all-time. If it ends at 5, maybe he's not inner circle for me. If inner circle means starting 9 or 25 man roster, then he's definitely out. But, if it's starting 9, then I've got Ted Williams and Stan Musial outside the inner circle with Barry Bonds playing leftfield.
The solution, of course, is obvious. The only people allowed to vote should be friends of Robo.
#5 or 6 is certainly outside my "inner circle". It's not really a set number for me though, it's more like the inner circle guys are the ones you don't even have to bother going to B-Ref for. You just know.
At 2B, it wouldn't go beyong Morgan, Collins and Lajoie (edit: and Hornsby of course) for me. CF would have more though: Mantle, Mays, Cobb, DiMaggio, Speaker. 3B is probably only Schmidt and Mathews. C, Bench and Berra. So, I don't see it as fixed number in any way.
Andy, they're called Primates around here.
Noble appeared on MLB Network last night claiming Alomar was actively disinterested, not merely that he lost all his talent. Whether this is actually true, it's a different argument from other career nosedives.
Don't know how I forgot Hornsby. Must have been thinking of him as a SS momentarily.
I wouldn't bump Mantle for Barry (or Mays or Cobb for that matter).
Hell, if we're moving guys, I'd go Mantle/Mays/Ruth in the OF. Let's get some defense out there. Williams can DH.
Although he *didn't* play CF (a lot), and those guys did. the consensus was he could have.
Ah, but if your mind wasn't frozen in 1972 there's a simple solution to all this: Bonds in LF, Mays in CF, and Williams as DH.
CF--Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Mays, DiMaggio
RF--Ruth, Aaron
LF--Williams, Musial, Bonds
Maybe Rickey, maybe F. Robby but that's about it. I recognize this is a small inner circle, but who else? Yaz? Shoeless Joe? Jim O'Rourke? Griffey? Ott? Reggie? Delahanty? All would be not quite, IMNSHO.
This of course is just the MLers. Oscar Charleston obviously belongs. I can't say I'm not missing somebody else. Turkey Stearnes?
realAAAA baseball.Fixed that for you, my man.
Although he *didn't* play CF (a lot), and those guys did. the consensus was he could have.
I'm quite confident that playing under equal conditions Mantle is a better player than Bonds (as is Mays).
Even ignoring his "training aids" (which I don't) Bonds has to lose tremendously to those two on defense. You can't tell me a guy who no one ever played in CF is within the same universe as a very good CF, and probably the best CF of all time.
The version of Bonds that was capable of handling center didn't have a better bat than Mantle.
That will come as news to some of the writers, who explicitly say they're punishing certain candidates.
(Or it's a stranger complaint than I've seen in a while.)
EDIT: And to all that, add the level of competition. Mantle played in a distinctly inferior league for nearly his entire career. It obviously wasn't Mantle's fault, but he wasn't really tested in the same way that Bonds was.
And yes, I know that that last sentence is a pretty good straight line....
Just as there's a process for getting into the BBWAA, there should be a process to stay in. I don't know any specifics, but it seems like there are a lot of guys who once covered baseball and don't any more, but still have votes. Why are they in the BBWAA at all? Much less voting on the HOF. Wait, does the BBWAA do anything else besides vote for the HOF?
As I understand it, the BBWAA's basic function is to ensure proper working conditions for writers at major league ballparks.
'Cause they keep paying their dues?
True. I'm not even sure career wise Bonds had a better bat (he certainly didn't if you take away his "questionable" years) But I'm not convinced a 181 OPS+ put up in Bonds era was better than Mantle's 172.
But you don't see anyone (or at least I don't) referencing Alomar's even worse performance with the White Sox as a reason to not vote for him.
But the Bonds that was capable of playing CF didn't have better stats than Mantle. Through age 33, Bonds has a 164 OPS+. Through the same age Mantle was at 175. Don't tell me the bloated Bonds of 2000-2004 was going to be tooling around in CF and be anything more than a joke.
I also think the injury issue is completely unfair to Mantle. If he had access to 1980-90's medical care, his knees would have been in far, far better shape, and he would have kept his speed far longer.
Baseball's highest level, Major League Baseball, has used the Designated Hitter since 1973.
But the Bonds that was capable of playing CF didn't have better stats than Mantle. Through age 33, Bonds has a 164 OPS+. Through the same age Mantle was at 175. Don't tell me the bloated Bonds of 2000-2004 was going to be tooling around in CF and be anything more than a joke.
Possibly not, but you should also realize that the last year where Mantle's range factor was above the league average was 1961, when he was 29.
I also think the injury issue is completely unfair to Mantle. If he had access to 1980-90's medical care, his knees would have been in far, far better shape, and he would have kept his speed far longer.
That's a fair point, but if Bonds had had access to 1950's and 60's American League pitching, he might not have needed those steroids to achieve his statistical level. Let's face it, this is but one more case where statistics can't tell us the whole story, especially when we're trying to fit those statistics into a framework of different times, different leagues, and different stages of knee surgery. All I can say is that given what they both had to deal with, and given that they both had advantages and disadvantages, Bonds had a better career. In terms of raw talent I'd probably give it to Mantle over anyone who ever lived, but that wasn't my point of comparison.
I think the actual words Noble used were "didn't care" - beyond the standard not running out a ground ball. And he thought that was the major reason for Alomar's performance in New York, not declining talent.
When Bonds was capable of playing centerfield, he didn't hit as well as Mantle. When Bonds hit better than Mantle, he couldn't play centerfield... or even left field, to be honest. To make Bonds better than Mantle, you have to either create a hybrid player who didn't exist, or factor in era adjustments that essentially make any all-time team made up almost exclusively of players from the last quarter-century.
CF--Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Mays, DiMaggio
RF--Ruth, Aaron
LF--Williams, Musial, Bonds
Good list as is, though I might leave Dimag just outside. Even with war credit, I see him as clearly below the top 4 CF, also clearly above anyone else (MLB only.)
TotalZone shows Mantle negative in CF overall through 1961.
As for Bonds over Mays in CF, I've pointed this out before: if you give Mays reasonable wartime credit (as I assume is being done with Williams), then AROM's rankings have Mays and Bonds indistinguishable on career value. In fact, Mays, Bonds and Williams are all at the same level, as is Ruth's outfield play (only Ruth's pitching moves him above the other 3).
I agree. Even if you give him 24 WAR for 3 years of wartime credit (a pretty generous adjustment IMO), that would leave him below Henderson and Ott in career value per AROM.
To make Bonds a better center fielder than Mantle, anyway.
Incidentally, how did the all-time CF discussion become Bonds vs. Mantle? Where did Mays and Cobb go?
The tyranny of OPS+.
I think Chris wanted to put Bonds into CF for an all-time starting OF of Williams Bonds Ruth. Makes more sense to me to make it Bonds Mays Ruth and use Williams as DH.
And I said I'm putting Mantle in LF over Bonds (Mantle/Mays/Ruth).
Mantle's OPS+ is all of 4 points higher than Cobb's. Through roughly the length of Mantle's career (which Cobb reached in 1922), he leads by 7 points, plus about 650 stolen bases (yes, Mantle was fast enough to steal bases if he played in a different era).
Of course, that doesn't address the question of Cobb's ability to adapt to the modern game.
That's a pretty good definition. As good as any.
That just makes you a small inner circle guy. Some people are big inner circle guys.
I'm pretty sure this is the first time I've ever seen an "arguably... period" structure for an argument.
Not that I really disagree. So what's the inner circle, structured like this, look like?
C: Bench/Berra/Gibson/Piazza
1B: Gehrig
2B: Hornsby/Collins/Lajoie/Morgan
3B: Schmidt
SS: Wagner/A-Rod
LF: Williams/Bonds/Musial
CF: Mays/Mantle/Cobb/Speaker
RF: Ruth/Aaron
Anyone else? Mathews is basically Schmidt as a hitter without the Gold Glove defense. Foxx is Gehrig with half as much prime. Pujols, if he keeps up his current pace, will be arguable fairly soon.
.300/371/443 210 HR, 474 SB, 10 GG OPS+ 116 in 2379 games
.276/363/426 244 HR, 143 SB, 3 GG OPS+ 116 in 2308 games
The first one it's travesty he didn't get in on the first ballot. The second guy didn't get enough votes to MAKE the the second ballot. WTF?
DH: Edgar Martinez
RP: Mo Rivera
Not really. My argument in #43 was that the all time team would have Bonds in LF and Mays in CF, with Williams as a DH. Mantle and Bonds would not even be in direct competition for either LF or CF.
But if you want to try a "hybrid", then Bonds won eight Gold Gloves, Mantle only one---and that in a year where his range factor was below the AL average. There's NO reason to assume that Mantle would have been a better leftfielder than Bonds actually was for the bulk of his career, and no reason to assume that Bonds would not have been as good a centerfielder for at least as many years as Mantle actually was an above average defensive centerfielder---about ten.
And since Bonds tops Mantle in every offensive category except BA (where they're tied at .298), you have to invent some sort of an artificial hybrid even to get Mantle into the discussion---unless you want to say that he was better than Mays, which at least makes a certain amount of sense if you go by peak value alone.
Or you could bring up the steroid factor, but that's a whole different question. For now I'm pretending that steroids played no part in Bonds's numbers.
I think if you're going to include Mays and Speaker in CF, you need to include DiMaggio. Distinguishing among them comes down to things like defense, era and war credit, so I think there's enough uncertainty to have them all.
I think all three are a fair bit behind Mantle and Cobb, though.
RP: Mo Rivera
C'mon. I think we'll stick Ted Williams at DH, and there are probably 50 great SPs who you'd rather have in the pen.
There's no such thing as an inner circle DH or RP. They're all on the fringe.
There's NO reason to assume that Mantle would have been a better leftfielder than Bonds actually was for the bulk of his career, and no reason to assume that Bonds would not have been as good a centerfielder for at least as many years as Mantle actually was an above average defensive centerfielder---about ten.
And since Bonds tops Mantle in every offensive category except BA
Andy, you're the one creating the hybrid. Mantle was a better hitter than the Bonds who could conceivably keep up with him defensively, either in LF or CF. The Bonds that put up the big hitting stats was already an inadequate LF.
If you compare prime young Bonds (pre-1999) to prime Mantle, Mantle beats him on offense. If you compare prime old Bonds to prime Mantle, Mantle kills him on defense.
The mythical Barry Bonds that was a better all around player than Mickey Mantle never took the field.
Bonds posted positive UZRs in '02, '03, and '04, including a +13 in '03. TotalZone gives him no worse than a -4 in any year before '07, and even then, a -9 is below average, but not inadequate.
I suppose there's the question of what purpose we're building this team for. Are we trying to win one pennant, or 15?
C: Bench/Berra
1B: Pujols (call me back if he collapses, but I can't see that happening, and his defense puts him over the top)/Gehrig
2B: Collins/Morgan (impossible to choose)
3B: Schmidt/Brett (stats aren't everything)
SS: Wagner
LF: Bonds/Cobb (my one hybrid concession)
CF: Mays/Mantle (career over peak, with league strength also factored in)
RF: Ruth/Aaron
DH: Williams/Piazza
SP: Johnson/Alexander/Grove/Seaver/Pedro/Clemens/Maddux (impossible to pick one over the rest, and you could almost as easily add a few more)
RP: Rivera
Oh,
All-black MLB IC OF:
Bonds/Mays/Aaron
All-white:
Williams (Musial in DH league)/Mantle (Speaker or Cobb career)/Ruth
Problem solved.
The Bonds of the early 90s wasn't that far off from Mantle's prime pace as a hitter. At least, if I believe my cursory review of their OPS+
Ah well, I was having a leetle fun :-D
As to DH, that's absolutely right; once you run out of inner-circle position players, there are bunches of better hitters than Edgar.
But Rivera is a different category. It's hard to imagine anybody, including Alexander, Grove, Koufax, Pedro, who could really have done any better than Rivera's 2.25 ERA in 1000+ innings or, especially, that insane 0.74 in 133-1/3 postseason innings. Alexander and Grove were excellent relief pitchers in actual fact, but still, could they really have outdone what Rivera has achieved? He's so great that to keep him out of an inner circle is more a matter of not considering "closer" to be a position (a completely valid philosophy, of course) than of preferring anyone else in his role.
Edited for clarity
No problem there but, while Alomar was better than Whitaker, he wasn't so much better that RA backers are insulted after one unsucessful ballot and LW is just plain out.
And since Bonds tops Mantle in every offensive category except BA (where they're tied at .298), you have to invent some sort of an artificial hybrid even to get Mantle into the discussion---unless you want to say that he was better than Mays, which at least makes a certain amount of sense if you go by peak value alone.
Andy, you're the one creating the hybrid. Mantle was a better hitter than the Bonds who could conceivably keep up with him defensively, either in LF or CF. The Bonds that put up the big hitting stats was already an inadequate LF.
If you compare prime young Bonds (pre-1999) to prime Mantle, Mantle beats him on offense. If you compare prime old Bonds to prime Mantle, Mantle kills him on defense.
The mythical Barry Bonds that was a better all around player than Mickey Mantle never took the field.
Here's my bottom line, snapper:
At their offensive peaks, Bonds was a better hitter, no matter what measurement you use.
At their defensive peaks, while it's hard to compare positions, Bonds won eight Gold Gloves to Mantle's one.
Bonds had a longer peak.
Bonds was a superior base stealer, even granting the reasons for that. His baserunning contributed far more to his teams' success than did Mantle's.
Mantle lost far more time to injury.
And Bonds played in a far superior league.
You can try to shuffle all this around and compare one particular set of years to make Mantle into a better hitter, and then use another particular set of years to say that Mantle was a superior fielder. But it doesn't negate everything I say above.
And it also doesn't address of where you put them for comparison, since they didn't play the same position. I'm not the one who's trying to put either of them in a position they never played, just to get him in the starting all-time lineup. If you want to argue Mantle over Mays or Williams/Musial over Bonds, fine. But that's the only argument that makes any sense.
And if you want to argue that Mantle was a better generic "outfielder" than Bonds, then you have to refute the points I just listed above, which are all derived from the record book. There is no f-ing way to say that Mantle had a better overall career than Bonds, OR had a higher peak. That really would be taking a trip into the Land of Nostalgia.
Hell, I get grief for putting Bonds in center, when Williams never played DH!
By WAR: Cobb 159.3, Mays 154.7 (plus 2 years service time and far stiffer competition), Speaker 132.8, Mantle 120.2, DiMag 83.4 (plus 3 years service time). You must be referring solely to peak value.
Yes it does. Mantle's prime as a hitter and fielder happened at the same time. Taking 10 year primes, from 1955-64 Mantle put up a 188 OPS+ while playing at least an average CF. Bonds, from 1990-99 (when you could argue he was a good enough LF to play CF, or be better than Mantle in LF) put up a 179 OPS+.
The 200 OPS+ Bonds was no longer even close to prime Mantle as a fielder. The offensive peak Bonds and the defensive peak Bonds never took the field together.
What I'm saying is prime Mickey Mantle was better than any incarnation of Bonds that actually existed if put in an equal context (if we discount for the post-1999 nonsense, or even if Mantle had access to modern medicine it wouldn't be that close).
If we're making an all-time team, it makes sense to have a DH so we can squeeze one more player onto the roster.
Yes, mostly peak. For inner circle I don't think length of career matters all that much, and you certainly should measure vs. average not replacement. I'd only exclude really short peak guys (Koufax) from the inner circle based on career.
For example, if we had two hypothetical players at the same position A and B. A puts up 4 years of 9 WAR seasons, 8 years of 6 WAR seasons and is done. B puts up 12 years of 6 WAR and another 10 of 2 WAR. I have a real hard time saying B was the better player. More career value, sure, but not better.
By TotalZone, Mantle was below average as a CF over this span. Bonds was 79 runs above average in LF from 90-99. Plus Bonds contributed much more as a baserunner. By WAR they're dead even and Bonds missed time to labor issues which Mantle didn't.
FWIW, that completely corresponds to my visual assessment. Bonds in his mid-to-late 30s was still covering plenty of ground in left; he only looked bad in comparison to the younger Bonds. He was still better defensively than most LFs. He didn't become slow until the knee surgery.
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