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Friday, January 08, 2010

Rosenthal: Snub of Alomar exposes flaw in voting

Give ‘em Hell, Kenny! (#1 on Similarity Scores)

I voted for Alomar. Almost everyone I know voted for Alomar. When a scout asked me Wednesday, “How could people not vote for the best second baseman of the last quarter-century?” I had no answer.

There is no answer, other than this:

Our membership is too bloated, too riddled with voters who do not take the process seriously enough to educate themselves properly.

...Virtually every voter I know is honored to participate in the process. Virtually every voter I know considers the ballot a tremendous responsibility. It’s the voters I don’t know — the ones I never see at ballparks — who worry me. I fear that some do not give the candidates the consideration they deserve.

The BBWAA has done a fine job in recent years of adding Web-based writers, including several whose work is strongly influenced by sabermetrics. The next step is to go the other way, trim the fat from the membership, purge those who do not study the game closely enough to warrant Hall of Fame votes.

The Alomar snub is an embarrassment.

If people’s feelings get hurt, too bad.

Repoz Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:06 PM | 337 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Rusty Priske Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:20 PM (#3431635)
Good job Robo!
   2. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:22 PM (#3431636)
“How could people not vote for the best second baseman of the last quarter-century?”
Because Grudzielanek isn't on the ballot yet, duh.
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:24 PM (#3431638)
I agree. It's nice to see him get out front on this.
   4. Gamingboy Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:24 PM (#3431639)
ROBO RAMPAGE!!!!!!!
   5. zonk Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:32 PM (#3431644)
Couldn't agree more, Ken.

Find out where we should point our pitchforks and we'll point them.
   6. Obi One Kenobi Nil (BFFB) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:33 PM (#3431645)
Brave and true article from Robo Rosenthal
   7. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:33 PM (#3431646)
I hate some of the voting and some of the voters but I'm pretty wary of yanking votes. I think we have to allow for some level of disagreement in the voting process. I think what BBWAA needs to do is clarify the rules a bit. One thing I would like to see is a specification that there is no special designation for "First Ballot" Hall of Famers. Then start enforcing rules like that and the rule about one great game or one great year not entitling someone to a vote. I think Alomar is an obvious selection but I think we have to allow a difference of opinion and I think it is very difficult to separate a legitimate difference of opinion from a lack of caring or knowledge.
   8. Posada Posse Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:34 PM (#3431647)
Robothal mentions that Marty Noble didn't vote for Alomar due to his "uninspiring play" for the Mets. Chass didn't vote for Blyleven because of his poor 1988 season. I guess I wouldn't have voted for Ruth due to his substandard 1925. WTF?
   9. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:37 PM (#3431649)
When I saw the headline, I came her specifically to snark, "What flaw is that? The electorate?"

Robo's article really took the oomph out of that snark.
   10. Obi One Kenobi Nil (BFFB) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:39 PM (#3431650)
I don't think he's complaining about voters who follow baseball and then vote, even if their votes aren't the greatest. He's complaining about John Smith who writes about College Football all year never watches a baseball game and then turns in a half-assed ballot based on which side of bed he got out of that day.
   11. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:45 PM (#3431652)
Robothal mentions that Marty Noble didn't vote for Alomar due to his "uninspiring play" for the Mets. Chass didn't vote for Blyleven because of his poor 1988 season. I guess I wouldn't have voted for Ruth due to his substandard 1925. WTF?

Dick Young wrote, after Willie Mays did not get a unanimous vote "These guys wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ--after all, he dropped the cross three times"
   12. Gamingboy Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:45 PM (#3431653)
In all seriousness, though, Rosenthal is now the Alpha Dog of the Week, as Stephen Colbert would say.
   13. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:54 PM (#3431657)
Dick Young wrote, after Willie Mays did not get a unanimous vote "These guys wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ--after all, he dropped the cross three times"

I hated Young back in my Sporting News reading days, but I have to admit that's a funny quip.
   14. zonk Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:55 PM (#3431658)
I don't think he's complaining about voters who follow baseball and then vote, even if their votes aren't the greatest. He's complaining about John Smith who writes about College Football all year never watches a baseball game and then turns in a half-assed ballot based on which side of bed he got out of that day.


Right.

There ARE an awful lot of voters that frankly, shouldn't have votes. Especially with newspapers dying left and right, it's well past time for the BBWAA to address the other side of the coin. They took care of one side by adding some netizens - now they need to fix the flip-side by pruning the dead weight.
   15. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 01:57 PM (#3431660)
The only way to deal with steroids among players is by random, unannounced drug testing.

And the only way to deal with clueless HoF voters is by random, unannounced testing of their baseball knowledge prior to mailing them a ballot. What you've got out there is a minority of writers who are the functional equivalent of Birthers and Truthers***, and with 75% required for induction, it doesn't take too many of these bozos to gum up the works.

***meaning people who have no interest in listening to anyone but themselves
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:01 PM (#3431666)
I'm not for yanking anyone's vote - that's a slippery slope where the cure is likely worse than the disease. But the BBWAA can do more to remind voters of the criteria and emphasize that votes should be based on what the HoF actually is - not some fantasy Hall that individual voters may prefer as an even more exclusive improvement on the real thing.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:04 PM (#3431669)
I really don't see the cause for even one iota of outrage here. He'll get in on the 2nd ballot, big frickin deal.

This process is about getting it right over time. They will in Alomar's case.
   18. Gern Blanston Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:04 PM (#3431670)
Robothal mentions that Marty Noble didn't vote for Alomar due to his "uninspiring play" for the Mets. Chass didn't vote for Blyleven because of his poor 1988 season. I guess I wouldn't have voted for Ruth due to his substandard 1925. WTF?

Games played for New York teams are worth more than games played for all other teams combined. Duh.
   19. fra paolo Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:05 PM (#3431671)
This article is a good piece of advocacy journalism, but in its substance is not really that different to the piñatas that regularly get posted here from Chass, Pearlman and whomever.

Rosenthal basically wants to strip people of their votes because they don't put in the work. He says:
I’m still trying to figure out why 143 voters failed to endorse Alomar

He then enunciates the following reasons:
1) The First-Ballot honour - he 'respects' the view that maybe Alomar isn't inner-circle.
2) The spitting incident - yes, people should move on, and they've got 14 more years to do so. Penance involves a penalty.
3) The cliff-diving once he joined the Mets.

Having then described three sound reasons for not voting for Alomar the first time round, Rosenthal appoints himself judge and jury to say
Put it all together, and it’s easy to understand why he might have lost small pockets of support. But 143 “no” votes? Sorry, that number is too high to make sense.

Is it? You don't have to be a New York sportswriter or fan to be annoyed about Alomar's time with the Mets, if you are really being objective about his claim to Fame. It's just as meaningful to anyone who is a real baseball fan.

If this article needs to be written next year, I'm more likely to think he's right, and we need a Pride's Purge of the BBWAA. But at the moment, Rosenthal is really calling for a Yezhovshchina.
   20. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:06 PM (#3431672)
Alternately, they could just add more competent people, thus lessening the impact of the unwashed masses.
   21. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:10 PM (#3431677)
Alomar just missed and will get in next year. I don't see it as worth getting outraged over, although Rosenthal, as a member of the BBWAA, is certainly entitled to.

Tim Raines, Alan Trammell -- those are snubs.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3431682)
Tim Raines, Alan Trammell -- those are snubs.

Amen.
   23. NYCTigersfan Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:18 PM (#3431684)
He then enunciates the following reasons:
1) The First-Ballot honour - he 'respects' the view that maybe Alomar isn't inner-circle.
2) The spitting incident - yes, people should move on, and they've got 14 more years to do so. Penance involves a penalty.
3) The cliff-diving once he joined the Mets.


And the problem with these people is not, as Rosenthal claims, that they're uneducated or don't take the voting privilege seriously. It's that they're idiots and megalomaniacs.
   24. zonk Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:18 PM (#3431685)
3) The cliff-diving once he joined the Mets.


That's really the stupidest one of all, though. I believe it's been shown that there really isn't a voting bias for players that starred in NY, but would anyone even remember his rapid descent into crapiness if it had happened in Florida (Dawson), Atlanta (Sutter), or Tampa (Boggs)?

It's stupid stuff like this that makes non-NYers hate New York.
   25. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:19 PM (#3431686)
And the only way to deal with clueless HoF voters is by random, unannounced testing of their baseball knowledge prior to mailing them a ballot.
I'll have to think about this, it's an interesting idea (outside of the, frankly, bad job I think the BBWAA did in their collective voting this year). I'm certainly against pruning their ranks based on age/time of service ... but the notion that voting is a privilege that should be earned beyond having been a member for X length of time is appealing.
I'm curious as to what the standards and material of such a test would be. Would it be "open book" (I can't imagine that it would be proctored - more like, 'fill out this questionaire')? How subjective would it be? Etc...
   26. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:22 PM (#3431688)
He then enunciates the following reasons:
1) The First-Ballot honour - he 'respects' the view that maybe Alomar isn't inner-circle.
2) The spitting incident - yes, people should move on, and they've got 14 more years to do so. Penance involves a penalty.
3) The cliff-diving once he joined the Mets.

Having then described three sound reasons for not voting for Alomar the first time round, Rosenthal appoints himself judge and jury to say

Put it all together, and it’s easy to understand why he might have lost small pockets of support. But 143 “no” votes? Sorry, that number is too high to make sense.


Yeah, I don't get it either. If there are legit reasons to not vote for Alomar (not saying the above are, but Robo is), then one cannot complain that so many did not vote for the guy. It's not like there is a limited supply of uses of the reasons. "Sorry. 20 people already used the no first ballot exception. We're all out."

It's like people complaining that "No, he's obviously not a HOFer, but I'm outraged that he didn't get 5% !"
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:24 PM (#3431690)
That's really the stupidest one of all, though. I believe it's been shown that there really isn't a voting bias for players that starred in NY, but would anyone even remember his rapid descent into crapiness if it had happened in Florida (Dawson), Atlanta (Sutter), or Tampa (Boggs)?

I think that just means that he was done as an effective player at age 33. I don't think where it happens mattered much.

Alomar isn't inner circle, so I really don't see why him waiting one year is so bad.
   28. zonk Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:27 PM (#3431695)
I think that just means that he was done as an effective player at age 33. I don't think where it happens mattered much.


And that's fine - but I do think Chass/whomever cited the "big stage" or somesuch...
   29. SteveM. Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:36 PM (#3431703)
If Ryno didn't make it in on the first ballot, why should I be outraged Alomar didn't?
And oh by the way all, Roll Tide!!
   30. Eugene Freedman Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3431705)
Alomar isn't inner circle, so I really don't see why him waiting one year is so bad.

Where does your inner circle end, I guess becomes the issue. I have him as the #5 or 6 secondbasemen of all-time. If it ends at 5, maybe he's not inner circle for me. If inner circle means starting 9 or 25 man roster, then he's definitely out. But, if it's starting 9, then I've got Ted Williams and Stan Musial outside the inner circle with Barry Bonds playing leftfield.
   31. sunnyday2 Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:44 PM (#3431714)
I have no problem with this article, Robo is correct. But the idea that Alomar is a big wake up call is just stupid. There have been wake up calls every year for 25 years.

The solution, of course, is obvious. The only people allowed to vote should be friends of Robo.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:48 PM (#3431721)
Where does your inner circle end, I guess becomes the issue. I have him as the #5 or 6 secondbasemen of all-time. If it ends at 5, maybe he's not inner circle for me. If inner circle means starting 9 or 25 man roster, then he's definitely out. But, if it's starting 9, then I've got Ted Williams and Stan Musial outside the inner circle with Barry Bonds playing leftfield.

#5 or 6 is certainly outside my "inner circle". It's not really a set number for me though, it's more like the inner circle guys are the ones you don't even have to bother going to B-Ref for. You just know.

At 2B, it wouldn't go beyong Morgan, Collins and Lajoie (edit: and Hornsby of course) for me. CF would have more though: Mantle, Mays, Cobb, DiMaggio, Speaker. 3B is probably only Schmidt and Mathews. C, Bench and Berra. So, I don't see it as fixed number in any way.
   33. sunnyday2 Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:49 PM (#3431724)
PS. The inner circle at 2B is particularly easy: in alpha order Collins, Hornsby, Lajoie, Morgan and by special dispensation Jackie Robinson. If anybody's got a beef with this it's Gehringer not Alomar. As a generalization my concept of inner circle is not based on the number at all, it's based on the player and the career and the numbers, but the outcome tends to be about 5 guys, give or take, at a position (other than pitcher).
   34. bunyon Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:50 PM (#3431726)
***meaning people who have no interest in listening to anyone but themselves

Andy, they're called Primates around here.
   35. OsunaSakata Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:51 PM (#3431728)
3) The cliff-diving once he joined the Mets.

That's really the stupidest one of all, though. I believe it's been shown that there really isn't a voting bias for players that starred in NY, but would anyone even remember his rapid descent into crapiness if it had happened in Florida (Dawson), Atlanta (Sutter), or Tampa (Boggs)?


Noble appeared on MLB Network last night claiming Alomar was actively disinterested, not merely that he lost all his talent. Whether this is actually true, it's a different argument from other career nosedives.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:53 PM (#3431730)
PS. The inner circle at 2B is particularly easy: in alpha order Collins, Hornsby, Lajoie, Morgan

Don't know how I forgot Hornsby. Must have been thinking of him as a SS momentarily.
   37. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:54 PM (#3431732)
I would have voted for Alomar too, but come on. You can't be "snubbed" by not receiving the game's highest honor in the first chance you ever get at it. Well, maybe you can if you're Willie Mays, but Alomar is not Willie Mays.
   38. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:03 PM (#3431740)
But, if it's starting 9, then I've got Ted Williams and Stan Musial outside the inner circle with Barry Bonds playing leftfield.
Musial, sure, but Williams? Forget that - Bonds plays CF.
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:05 PM (#3431744)
Musial, sure, but Williams? Forget that - Bonds plays CF.

I wouldn't bump Mantle for Barry (or Mays or Cobb for that matter).

Hell, if we're moving guys, I'd go Mantle/Mays/Ruth in the OF. Let's get some defense out there. Williams can DH.
   40. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3431746)
I would. I don't see it as particularly close. Bonds is one of the Big Three.

Although he *didn't* play CF (a lot), and those guys did. the consensus was he could have.
   41. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:10 PM (#3431749)
Take SOM or DMB: I take Bonds and his Avg CF rating and his bat over Mantle's VG rating and his bat. I think.
   42. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:11 PM (#3431751)
There is no DH in real baseball. And that isn't "moving" players. They played there (Mantle and Ruth did, I assume Mays did).
   43. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:13 PM (#3431753)
I would. I don't see it as particularly close. Bonds is one of the Big Three.

Ah, but if your mind wasn't frozen in 1972 there's a simple solution to all this: Bonds in LF, Mays in CF, and Williams as DH.
   44. sunnyday2 Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:14 PM (#3431754)
Inner Circle OFs

CF--Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Mays, DiMaggio
RF--Ruth, Aaron
LF--Williams, Musial, Bonds

Maybe Rickey, maybe F. Robby but that's about it. I recognize this is a small inner circle, but who else? Yaz? Shoeless Joe? Jim O'Rourke? Griffey? Ott? Reggie? Delahanty? All would be not quite, IMNSHO.

This of course is just the MLers. Oscar Charleston obviously belongs. I can't say I'm not missing somebody else. Turkey Stearnes?
   45. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:15 PM (#3431755)
There is no DH in real AAAA baseball.

Fixed that for you, my man.
   46. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:16 PM (#3431757)
I would. I don't see it as particularly close. Bonds is one of the Big Three.

Although he *didn't* play CF (a lot), and those guys did. the consensus was he could have.


I'm quite confident that playing under equal conditions Mantle is a better player than Bonds (as is Mays).

Even ignoring his "training aids" (which I don't) Bonds has to lose tremendously to those two on defense. You can't tell me a guy who no one ever played in CF is within the same universe as a very good CF, and probably the best CF of all time.
   47. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:16 PM (#3431758)
Take SOM or DMB: I take Bonds and his Avg CF rating and his bat over Mantle's VG rating and his bat. I think.

The version of Bonds that was capable of handling center didn't have a better bat than Mantle.
   48. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:16 PM (#3431759)
You can't be "snubbed" by not receiving the game's highest honor in the first chance you ever get at it.

That will come as news to some of the writers, who explicitly say they're punishing certain candidates.
   49. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:17 PM (#3431762)
I would. I don't see it as particularly close. Bonds is one of the Big Three.

Although he *didn't* play CF (a lot), and those guys did. the consensus was he could have.
If he wanted.
   50. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:17 PM (#3431763)
His outrage is misplaced. I don't think Alomar was better than Whitaker, Sandberg or Biggio so I just don't think of this as a terrible snub. I see a lot of similarities between Bobby Doerr and Roberto Alomar. Sure Alomar deserves induction but he's not in the top half and would only rank 6th among my favorite eligible players. It is perfectly legit for a small-hall guy to say "he wasn't good enough".
   51. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:23 PM (#3431769)
Noble appeared on MLB Network last night claiming Alomar was actively disinterested, not merely that he lost all his talent. Whether this is actually true, it's a different argument from other career nosedives.
Either Noble needs a dictionary for Christmas or you're paraphrasing him unfairly; YM uninterested, not disinterested.

(Or it's a stranger complaint than I've seen in a while.)
   52. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:25 PM (#3431771)
It's impossible to take the steroids factor out of this, but if you do so for the sake of argument, there's no way you could take Mantle over Bonds. Go by rate stats, go by career totals, go by longevity and the ability to avoid injuries, go by base stealing, go by pretty much anything other than the postseason, and Bonds wins in nearly every category except batting average, where it's a dead heat. And don't tell me that a man with 8 Gold Gloves couldn't have performed more than adequately as a center fielder. Mantle had more straightaway speed when he was in his early-mid 20's, but after that it wasn't demonstrably much better than Bonds's.

EDIT: And to all that, add the level of competition. Mantle played in a distinctly inferior league for nearly his entire career. It obviously wasn't Mantle's fault, but he wasn't really tested in the same way that Bonds was.

And yes, I know that that last sentence is a pretty good straight line....
   53. Greg Pope Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:25 PM (#3431772)
I'm certainly against pruning their ranks based on age/time of service ... but the notion that voting is a privilege that should be earned beyond having been a member for X length of time is appealing.

Just as there's a process for getting into the BBWAA, there should be a process to stay in. I don't know any specifics, but it seems like there are a lot of guys who once covered baseball and don't any more, but still have votes. Why are they in the BBWAA at all? Much less voting on the HOF. Wait, does the BBWAA do anything else besides vote for the HOF?
   54. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:28 PM (#3431777)
BBWAA membership is an automatic press pass. If they aren't using that privilege then there's really no reason to keep active.
   55. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3431779)
Wait, does the BBWAA do anything else besides vote for the HOF?


As I understand it, the BBWAA's basic function is to ensure proper working conditions for writers at major league ballparks.
   56. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:30 PM (#3431781)
Why are they in the BBWAA at all?

'Cause they keep paying their dues?
   57. tjm1 Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:40 PM (#3431793)
The guidelines to voters specifically state that the player's character is to be taken into account. I don't think the spitting incident was actually that big a deal, and Hirchsbeck pretty clearly provoked Alomar when he should have been trying to diffuse the situation, but if someone else wants to argue that Alomar is unqualified on those grounds, I can say that that clause has rarely been enforced, but not that it's not there.
   58. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:46 PM (#3431800)
The version of Bonds that was capable of handling center didn't have a better bat than Mantle.

True. I'm not even sure career wise Bonds had a better bat (he certainly didn't if you take away his "questionable" years) But I'm not convinced a 181 OPS+ put up in Bonds era was better than Mantle's 172.
   59. Danny Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:48 PM (#3431801)
I think that just means that he was done as an effective player at age 33. I don't think where it happens mattered much.

But you don't see anyone (or at least I don't) referencing Alomar's even worse performance with the White Sox as a reason to not vote for him.
   60. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:52 PM (#3431804)
It's impossible to take the steroids factor out of this, but if you do so for the sake of argument, there's no way you could take Mantle over Bonds. Go by rate stats, go by career totals, go by longevity and the ability to avoid injuries, go by base stealing, go by pretty much anything other than the postseason, and Bonds wins in nearly every category except batting average, where it's a dead heat. And don't tell me that a man with 8 Gold Gloves couldn't have performed more than adequately as a center fielder. Mantle had more straightaway speed when he was in his early-mid 20's, but after that it wasn't demonstrably much better than Bonds's.

But the Bonds that was capable of playing CF didn't have better stats than Mantle. Through age 33, Bonds has a 164 OPS+. Through the same age Mantle was at 175. Don't tell me the bloated Bonds of 2000-2004 was going to be tooling around in CF and be anything more than a joke.

I also think the injury issue is completely unfair to Mantle. If he had access to 1980-90's medical care, his knees would have been in far, far better shape, and he would have kept his speed far longer.
   61. Paul D (AKA The Other Canadian) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:54 PM (#3431808)
There is no DH in real baseball. And that isn't "moving" players.

Baseball's highest level, Major League Baseball, has used the Designated Hitter since 1973.
   62. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:04 PM (#3431814)
It's impossible to take the steroids factor out of this, but if you do so for the sake of argument, there's no way you could take Mantle over Bonds. Go by rate stats, go by career totals, go by longevity and the ability to avoid injuries, go by base stealing, go by pretty much anything other than the postseason, and Bonds wins in nearly every category except batting average, where it's a dead heat. And don't tell me that a man with 8 Gold Gloves couldn't have performed more than adequately as a center fielder. Mantle had more straightaway speed when he was in his early-mid 20's, but after that it wasn't demonstrably much better than Bonds's.

But the Bonds that was capable of playing CF didn't have better stats than Mantle. Through age 33, Bonds has a 164 OPS+. Through the same age Mantle was at 175. Don't tell me the bloated Bonds of 2000-2004 was going to be tooling around in CF and be anything more than a joke.


Possibly not, but you should also realize that the last year where Mantle's range factor was above the league average was 1961, when he was 29.

I also think the injury issue is completely unfair to Mantle. If he had access to 1980-90's medical care, his knees would have been in far, far better shape, and he would have kept his speed far longer.

That's a fair point, but if Bonds had had access to 1950's and 60's American League pitching, he might not have needed those steroids to achieve his statistical level. Let's face it, this is but one more case where statistics can't tell us the whole story, especially when we're trying to fit those statistics into a framework of different times, different leagues, and different stages of knee surgery. All I can say is that given what they both had to deal with, and given that they both had advantages and disadvantages, Bonds had a better career. In terms of raw talent I'd probably give it to Mantle over anyone who ever lived, but that wasn't my point of comparison.
   63. OsunaSakata Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:17 PM (#3431828)
Either Noble needs a dictionary for Christmas or you're paraphrasing him unfairly; YM uninterested, not disinterested.

(Or it's a stranger complaint than I've seen in a while.)


I think the actual words Noble used were "didn't care" - beyond the standard not running out a ground ball. And he thought that was the major reason for Alomar's performance in New York, not declining talent.
   64. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:40 PM (#3431846)
Possibly not, but you should also realize that the last year where Mantle's range factor was above the league average was 1961, when he was 29.
That's fine, but he actually played centerfield. Bonds only played a little bit there.

When Bonds was capable of playing centerfield, he didn't hit as well as Mantle. When Bonds hit better than Mantle, he couldn't play centerfield... or even left field, to be honest. To make Bonds better than Mantle, you have to either create a hybrid player who didn't exist, or factor in era adjustments that essentially make any all-time team made up almost exclusively of players from the last quarter-century.
   65. SandyRiver Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:46 PM (#3431853)
Inner Circle OFs

CF--Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Mays, DiMaggio
RF--Ruth, Aaron
LF--Williams, Musial, Bonds


Good list as is, though I might leave Dimag just outside. Even with war credit, I see him as clearly below the top 4 CF, also clearly above anyone else (MLB only.)
   66. Mefisto Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:46 PM (#3431855)
Possibly not, but you should also realize that the last year where Mantle's range factor was above the league average was 1961, when he was 29.


TotalZone shows Mantle negative in CF overall through 1961.

As for Bonds over Mays in CF, I've pointed this out before: if you give Mays reasonable wartime credit (as I assume is being done with Williams), then AROM's rankings have Mays and Bonds indistinguishable on career value. In fact, Mays, Bonds and Williams are all at the same level, as is Ruth's outfield play (only Ruth's pitching moves him above the other 3).
   67. Mefisto Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:49 PM (#3431857)
Good list as is, though I might leave Dimag just outside.


I agree. Even if you give him 24 WAR for 3 years of wartime credit (a pretty generous adjustment IMO), that would leave him below Henderson and Ott in career value per AROM.
   68. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:58 PM (#3431869)
To make Bonds better than Mantle

To make Bonds a better center fielder than Mantle, anyway.

Incidentally, how did the all-time CF discussion become Bonds vs. Mantle? Where did Mays and Cobb go?
   69. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:07 PM (#3431884)
Incidentally, how did the all-time CF discussion become Bonds vs. Mantle? Where did Mays and Cobb go?

The tyranny of OPS+.
   70. Mefisto Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:08 PM (#3431886)
Incidentally, how did the all-time CF discussion become Bonds vs. Mantle? Where did Mays and Cobb go?


I think Chris wanted to put Bonds into CF for an all-time starting OF of Williams Bonds Ruth. Makes more sense to me to make it Bonds Mays Ruth and use Williams as DH.
   71. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:10 PM (#3431888)
I think Chris wanted to put Bonds into CF for an all-time starting OF of Williams Bonds Ruth. Makes more sense to me to make it Bonds Mays Ruth and use Williams as DH.

And I said I'm putting Mantle in LF over Bonds (Mantle/Mays/Ruth).
   72. adamadkins Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:14 PM (#3431899)
When I read the title my first thought was, "Yeah, because they're all idiots." That's the flaw.
   73. Morty Causa Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:15 PM (#3431900)
Inner circle to me means that the player is arguably the best player at his position. Why make this more complicated than it has to be? This means Williams, Musial, and Bonds for LF (unless yadda, yadda, yadda). No, Henderson, doesn't cut it. It's someone legitimately in the running for "best" of all times. Alomar is not in the running for "best" ever. Ergo, he ain't inner circle. It also means the distinctions will be clearer for some positions (shortstop) than others (catcher or centerfield, say). But the standard isn't being best of your time or being in the top five or being a member of some fantasy all-star team--although these things can follow. It's being arguably the best ever at your position. Period.
   74. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:17 PM (#3431904)
The tyranny of OPS+.

Mantle's OPS+ is all of 4 points higher than Cobb's. Through roughly the length of Mantle's career (which Cobb reached in 1922), he leads by 7 points, plus about 650 stolen bases (yes, Mantle was fast enough to steal bases if he played in a different era).

Of course, that doesn't address the question of Cobb's ability to adapt to the modern game.
   75. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:17 PM (#3431905)
Inner circle to me means that the player is arguably the best player at his position.

That's a pretty good definition. As good as any.
   76. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:19 PM (#3431907)
Inner circle to me means that the player is arguably the best player at his position.

That just makes you a small inner circle guy. Some people are big inner circle guys.
   77. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:20 PM (#3431909)
I basically agree with Morty on that last point. "Inner-circle" is not just another way of saying "first ballot" or no-brainer HOFer. It's more than that. It's the elite of the HOF.
   78. adamadkins Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:22 PM (#3431912)
Inner-circle guys: Ruth, Mays, Gehrig, Mantle, Ted Williams, Aaron, Bonds, Maddux, Walt Johnson, Honus Wagner. All good examples, no?
   79. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:25 PM (#3431918)
It's being arguably the best ever at your position. Period.

I'm pretty sure this is the first time I've ever seen an "arguably... period" structure for an argument.

Not that I really disagree. So what's the inner circle, structured like this, look like?

C: Bench/Berra/Gibson/Piazza
1B: Gehrig
2B: Hornsby/Collins/Lajoie/Morgan
3B: Schmidt
SS: Wagner/A-Rod
LF: Williams/Bonds/Musial
CF: Mays/Mantle/Cobb/Speaker
RF: Ruth/Aaron

Anyone else? Mathews is basically Schmidt as a hitter without the Gold Glove defense. Foxx is Gehrig with half as much prime. Pujols, if he keeps up his current pace, will be arguable fairly soon.
   80. Brian Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:38 PM (#3431928)
Two secondbaseman:

.300/371/443 210 HR, 474 SB, 10 GG OPS+ 116 in 2379 games
.276/363/426 244 HR, 143 SB, 3 GG OPS+ 116 in 2308 games

The first one it's travesty he didn't get in on the first ballot. The second guy didn't get enough votes to MAKE the the second ballot. WTF?
   81. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3431929)
SP: Young/ Johnson/ Mathewson/Alexander/Grove/Feller/Seaver/Clemens/Maddux
DH: Edgar Martinez
RP: Mo Rivera
   82. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:41 PM (#3431930)
When Bonds was capable of playing centerfield, he didn't hit as well as Mantle. When Bonds hit better than Mantle, he couldn't play centerfield... or even left field, to be honest. To make Bonds better than Mantle, you have to either create a hybrid player who didn't exist, or factor in era adjustments that essentially make any all-time team made up almost exclusively of players from the last quarter-century.

Not really. My argument in #43 was that the all time team would have Bonds in LF and Mays in CF, with Williams as a DH. Mantle and Bonds would not even be in direct competition for either LF or CF.

But if you want to try a "hybrid", then Bonds won eight Gold Gloves, Mantle only one---and that in a year where his range factor was below the AL average. There's NO reason to assume that Mantle would have been a better leftfielder than Bonds actually was for the bulk of his career, and no reason to assume that Bonds would not have been as good a centerfielder for at least as many years as Mantle actually was an above average defensive centerfielder---about ten.

And since Bonds tops Mantle in every offensive category except BA (where they're tied at .298), you have to invent some sort of an artificial hybrid even to get Mantle into the discussion---unless you want to say that he was better than Mays, which at least makes a certain amount of sense if you go by peak value alone.

Or you could bring up the steroid factor, but that's a whole different question. For now I'm pretending that steroids played no part in Bonds's numbers.
   83. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:45 PM (#3431935)
Anyone else? Mathews is basically Schmidt as a hitter without the Gold Glove defense. Foxx is Gehrig with half as much prime. Pujols, if he keeps up his current pace, will be arguable fairly soon.

I think if you're going to include Mays and Speaker in CF, you need to include DiMaggio. Distinguishing among them comes down to things like defense, era and war credit, so I think there's enough uncertainty to have them all.

I think all three are a fair bit behind Mantle and Cobb, though.
   84. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:52 PM (#3431945)
DH: Edgar Martinez
RP: Mo Rivera


C'mon. I think we'll stick Ted Williams at DH, and there are probably 50 great SPs who you'd rather have in the pen.

There's no such thing as an inner circle DH or RP. They're all on the fringe.

There's NO reason to assume that Mantle would have been a better leftfielder than Bonds actually was for the bulk of his career, and no reason to assume that Bonds would not have been as good a centerfielder for at least as many years as Mantle actually was an above average defensive centerfielder---about ten.

And since Bonds tops Mantle in every offensive category except BA

Andy, you're the one creating the hybrid. Mantle was a better hitter than the Bonds who could conceivably keep up with him defensively, either in LF or CF. The Bonds that put up the big hitting stats was already an inadequate LF.

If you compare prime young Bonds (pre-1999) to prime Mantle, Mantle beats him on offense. If you compare prime old Bonds to prime Mantle, Mantle kills him on defense.

The mythical Barry Bonds that was a better all around player than Mickey Mantle never took the field.
   85. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:02 PM (#3431954)
The Bonds that put up the big hitting stats was already an inadequate LF.

Bonds posted positive UZRs in '02, '03, and '04, including a +13 in '03. TotalZone gives him no worse than a -4 in any year before '07, and even then, a -9 is below average, but not inadequate.

I suppose there's the question of what purpose we're building this team for. Are we trying to win one pennant, or 15?
   86. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:03 PM (#3431955)
I guess my inner circle isn't quite as confined as some, but here's my 25 man roster, Major League only:

C: Bench/Berra
1B: Pujols (call me back if he collapses, but I can't see that happening, and his defense puts him over the top)/Gehrig
2B: Collins/Morgan (impossible to choose)
3B: Schmidt/Brett (stats aren't everything)
SS: Wagner
LF: Bonds/Cobb (my one hybrid concession)
CF: Mays/Mantle (career over peak, with league strength also factored in)
RF: Ruth/Aaron
DH: Williams/Piazza
SP: Johnson/Alexander/Grove/Seaver/Pedro/Clemens/Maddux (impossible to pick one over the rest, and you could almost as easily add a few more)
RP: Rivera
   87. zenbitz Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:04 PM (#3431956)
It's stuff like post 80. that make me want to become a small-hall guy. At least then I can say "both out!"

Oh,
All-black MLB IC OF:
Bonds/Mays/Aaron

All-white:
Williams (Musial in DH league)/Mantle (Speaker or Cobb career)/Ruth

Problem solved.
   88. PreservedFish Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:06 PM (#3431958)
84-

The Bonds of the early 90s wasn't that far off from Mantle's prime pace as a hitter. At least, if I believe my cursory review of their OPS+
   89. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:06 PM (#3431960)
C'mon. I think we'll stick Ted Williams at DH, and there are probably 50 great SPs who you'd rather have in the pen

Ah well, I was having a leetle fun :-D

As to DH, that's absolutely right; once you run out of inner-circle position players, there are bunches of better hitters than Edgar.

But Rivera is a different category. It's hard to imagine anybody, including Alexander, Grove, Koufax, Pedro, who could really have done any better than Rivera's 2.25 ERA in 1000+ innings or, especially, that insane 0.74 in 133-1/3 postseason innings. Alexander and Grove were excellent relief pitchers in actual fact, but still, could they really have outdone what Rivera has achieved? He's so great that to keep him out of an inner circle is more a matter of not considering "closer" to be a position (a completely valid philosophy, of course) than of preferring anyone else in his role.

Edited for clarity
   90. Brian Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:08 PM (#3431961)
It's stuff like post 80. that make me want to become a small-hall guy. At least then I can say "both out!"


No problem there but, while Alomar was better than Whitaker, he wasn't so much better that RA backers are insulted after one unsucessful ballot and LW is just plain out.
   91. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:17 PM (#3431967)
When Bonds was capable of playing centerfield, he didn't hit as well as Mantle. When Bonds hit better than Mantle, he couldn't play centerfield... or even left field, to be honest.
Who says? All data says he could and did. Eric J. says it well. Several of you assert this, and I don't believe it is true.
   92. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:18 PM (#3431968)
There's NO reason to assume that Mantle would have been a better leftfielder than Bonds actually was for the bulk of his career, and no reason to assume that Bonds would not have been as good a centerfielder for at least as many years as Mantle actually was an above average defensive centerfielder---about ten.

And since Bonds tops Mantle in every offensive category except BA (where they're tied at .298), you have to invent some sort of an artificial hybrid even to get Mantle into the discussion---unless you want to say that he was better than Mays, which at least makes a certain amount of sense if you go by peak value alone.


Andy, you're the one creating the hybrid. Mantle was a better hitter than the Bonds who could conceivably keep up with him defensively, either in LF or CF. The Bonds that put up the big hitting stats was already an inadequate LF.

If you compare prime young Bonds (pre-1999) to prime Mantle, Mantle beats him on offense. If you compare prime old Bonds to prime Mantle, Mantle kills him on defense.

The mythical Barry Bonds that was a better all around player than Mickey Mantle never took the field.


Here's my bottom line, snapper:

At their offensive peaks, Bonds was a better hitter, no matter what measurement you use.

At their defensive peaks, while it's hard to compare positions, Bonds won eight Gold Gloves to Mantle's one.

Bonds had a longer peak.

Bonds was a superior base stealer, even granting the reasons for that. His baserunning contributed far more to his teams' success than did Mantle's.

Mantle lost far more time to injury.

And Bonds played in a far superior league.

You can try to shuffle all this around and compare one particular set of years to make Mantle into a better hitter, and then use another particular set of years to say that Mantle was a superior fielder. But it doesn't negate everything I say above.

And it also doesn't address of where you put them for comparison, since they didn't play the same position. I'm not the one who's trying to put either of them in a position they never played, just to get him in the starting all-time lineup. If you want to argue Mantle over Mays or Williams/Musial over Bonds, fine. But that's the only argument that makes any sense.

And if you want to argue that Mantle was a better generic "outfielder" than Bonds, then you have to refute the points I just listed above, which are all derived from the record book. There is no f-ing way to say that Mantle had a better overall career than Bonds, OR had a higher peak. That really would be taking a trip into the Land of Nostalgia.
   93. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:18 PM (#3431969)
Makes more sense to me to make it Bonds Mays Ruth and use Williams as DH.
I think I am still right when I say there are no DHs in the HOF.

Hell, I get grief for putting Bonds in center, when Williams never played DH!
   94. Mefisto Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:26 PM (#3431972)
I think if you're going to include Mays and Speaker in CF, you need to include DiMaggio. Distinguishing among them comes down to things like defense, era and war credit, so I think there's enough uncertainty to have them all.

I think all three are a fair bit behind Mantle and Cobb, though.


By WAR: Cobb 159.3, Mays 154.7 (plus 2 years service time and far stiffer competition), Speaker 132.8, Mantle 120.2, DiMag 83.4 (plus 3 years service time). You must be referring solely to peak value.
   95. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3431973)
You can try to shuffle all this around and compare one particular set of years to make Mantle into a better hitter, and then use another particular set of years to say that Mantle was a superior fielder. But it doesn't negate everything I say above.

Yes it does. Mantle's prime as a hitter and fielder happened at the same time. Taking 10 year primes, from 1955-64 Mantle put up a 188 OPS+ while playing at least an average CF. Bonds, from 1990-99 (when you could argue he was a good enough LF to play CF, or be better than Mantle in LF) put up a 179 OPS+.

The 200 OPS+ Bonds was no longer even close to prime Mantle as a fielder. The offensive peak Bonds and the defensive peak Bonds never took the field together.

What I'm saying is prime Mickey Mantle was better than any incarnation of Bonds that actually existed if put in an equal context (if we discount for the post-1999 nonsense, or even if Mantle had access to modern medicine it wouldn't be that close).
   96. Mefisto Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3431974)
I think I am still right when I say there are no DHs in the HOF.


If we're making an all-time team, it makes sense to have a DH so we can squeeze one more player onto the roster.
   97. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3431976)
But Rivera is a different category. It's hard to imagine anybody, including Alexander, Grove, Koufax, Pedro, who could really have done any better than Rivera's 2.25 ERA in 1000+ innings or, especially, that insane 0.74 in 133-1/3 postseason innings. Alexander and Grove were excellent relief pitchers in actual fact, but still, could they really have outdone what Rivera has achieved? He's so great that to keep him out of an inner circle is more a matter of not considering "closer" to be a position (a completely valid philosophy, of course) than of preferring anyone else in his role.
In the role Rivera plays, nobody is going to do better than Rivera, just because it's nearly impossible to do so. So if you want your RP to play the save-accumulator role, pick Rivera. If you want your RP to pitch more than 75 IP, you don't want Rivera. Of course, the obvious retort is, with that collection of starters, why would you want that? But the obvious rejoinder to that is, well, with that collection of starters, why do you need a reliever at all?
   98. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:33 PM (#3431977)
By WAR: Cobb 159.3, Mays 154.7 (plus 2 years service time and far stiffer competition), Speaker 132.8, Mantle 120.2, DiMag 83.4 (plus 3 years service time). You must be referring solely to peak value.

Yes, mostly peak. For inner circle I don't think length of career matters all that much, and you certainly should measure vs. average not replacement. I'd only exclude really short peak guys (Koufax) from the inner circle based on career.

For example, if we had two hypothetical players at the same position A and B. A puts up 4 years of 9 WAR seasons, 8 years of 6 WAR seasons and is done. B puts up 12 years of 6 WAR and another 10 of 2 WAR. I have a real hard time saying B was the better player. More career value, sure, but not better.
   99. Mefisto Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:34 PM (#3431981)
Taking 10 year primes, from 1955-64 Mantle put up a 188 OPS+ while playing at least an average CF. Bonds, from 1990-99 (when you could argue he was a good enough LF to play CF, or be better than Mantle in LF) put up a 179 OPS+.


By TotalZone, Mantle was below average as a CF over this span. Bonds was 79 runs above average in LF from 90-99. Plus Bonds contributed much more as a baserunner. By WAR they're dead even and Bonds missed time to labor issues which Mantle didn't.
   100. Steve Treder Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:36 PM (#3431982)
Bonds posted positive UZRs in '02, '03, and '04, including a +13 in '03. TotalZone gives him no worse than a -4 in any year before '07, and even then, a -9 is below average, but not inadequate

FWIW, that completely corresponds to my visual assessment. Bonds in his mid-to-late 30s was still covering plenty of ground in left; he only looked bad in comparison to the younger Bonds. He was still better defensively than most LFs. He didn't become slow until the knee surgery.
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