Damn.
It looks like the Pads are really trading Peavy, now that they're saying they haven't accepted an offer...

Good bye Yunie. You should have been the face of the franchise going forward, but this team is stuck in a "we're one player away, cash in the prospects" spiral of death. Can't wait to see what garbage they come up with to play shortstop. The last time they traded a young, cheap, productive starting position player, they plugged in Scott Thorman.

If it's the Cubs, I assume Pie is gone. Not sure what else we've got the Pads would want.

Pie and Marshall sound like the guys guaranteed to go in any Cubs offer. Other names talked about were Cedeno, Mitch Atkins, Kevin Hart, Welington Castillo, and Josh Vitters.

Pie and Marshall sound like the guys guaranteed to go in any Cubs offer. Other names talked about were Cedeno, Mitch Atkins, Kevin Hart, Welington Castillo, and Josh Vitters.

I don't know if it's just me, but it seems like the only names there that the Padres would be interested in would be Marshall and Vitters.

Good bye Yunie. You should have been the face of the franchise going forward,

Uh, maybe in some alternate universe where Brian McCann decided to become a ballerina rather than a baseball player.

but this team is stuck in a "we're one player away, cash in the prospects" spiral of death.

C'mon, its a decent, youngish established shortstop under control for 5 years being traded for an excellent, almost-as-youngish pitcher under control for 5 years. Unless you're really excited to see Gorkys Hernandez morph into Juan Pierre in a Braves uniform, or you can think of better ways to spend that $15 million/year of payroll (and that won't go very far in this free agent market), this is a reasonable trade.

or you can think of better ways to spend that $15 million/year of payroll

The problem is, they're probably going to turn around and spend most of that on Rafael Furcal or Edgar Renteria. They sure don't have any real internal options for SS.

Good bye Yunie. You should have been the face of the franchise going forward,

I can see why some Braves fans don't want their team to do this, but I was not aware that Yunel Escobar was held in such iconic regard. Here in SD, if this happens, the Padres will lose the REAL "faces of the franchise" as they are apparently planning to let Hoffman leave and trade Peavy and Gonzalez.

This could be bad for the Braves if Peavy cannot stay healthy, and he might not. But if he does, he is going to provide a lot of value.

I haven't heard anything about the Padres trading Gonzalez. He's under a team friendly deal, Moores doesn't have to slash that much payroll. Only other guys I'd see going are Greene and Giles(who's a team option anyway)

and Gonzalez

Seriously? I haven't heard anything about Gonzalez. That would make no sense at all. He is only owed $7.75 million over the next couple of years. Here is a quote from Kevin Towers on Oct. 18:

"Adrian would be the most difficult guy for us to move," Towers said. "I don't see any circumstances in which we would do it. He is young, under control for three more years, has plus offense and plus defense."

That is one rumor out here--that they are going to clean house entirely, get the payroll way down, and Moores is going to sell. I saw the Towers quote as well--no one trusts that right now. Gonzalez would have a lot of trade value for the reasons you note.

That is one rumor out here--that they are going to clean house entirely, get the payroll way down, and Moores is going to sell. I saw the Towers quote as well--no one trusts that right now. Gonzalez would have a lot of trade value for the reasons you note.

Hmmm. If MLB wants Mark Cuban away from the Cubs, maybe they should broker a quick sale of the Padres to him before Moores drives the franchise into the ground? Seriously, if I were a resident of San Diego, I would be very bitter about this fire sale.

cubs just aquired kevin gregg from the marlins, maybe that will help with the pitching they needed to move to get peavy

Seriously, if I were a resident of San Diego, I would be very bitter about this fire sale

.

Well, I hit on this yesterday. The problems people will have it (other than the fact that many fans here really LIKE Peavy and Hoffman just as GUYS--not just for what they have done on the field) are that neither of them is overpaid relative to the market; (Hoffman took a lower offer to stay a couple of years ago); that we were told that the new ballpark would prevent any more Werneresque "everything must go!" scenarios; and that Moores is doing it because some of his business ventures have failed, and he is in the midst of a divorce.

Given how crappy the team/farm system are, letting Hoffman go is a reasonable baseball decision, and depending on the return, trading Peavy might be as well. But that is not really why Moores is doing this--or so people think.

Cubs acquired Gregg for Jose Ceda. Just an awful trade, and I'm not much of a Ceda fan.

cubs just aquired kevin gregg from the marlins, maybe that will help with the pitching they needed to move to get peavy

Somehow I doubt it.

I assume this is Hendry's insurance policy against Wood leaving. Every time I start thinking he's a good GM, he pulls some dumbass move like this. A bullpen arm with control problems, Lou's gonna love him.

gregg is a 22 year old who had a pretty decent season so i could see how he would be worked in or as a replacement for someone being traded that they didnt want to trade before this

Gregg is 31 and about to make 3-4M He has no place in a direct trade with the Padres.

well i have no idea where i got that he was 22 which then makes this a terrible trade nevermind

"Seriously, if I were a resident of San Diego, I would be very bitter about this fire sale."

This is pretty funny. The SD people think this is a fire sale; many Braves fans think they are getting hosed and giving up too much for Peavy, and losing their beloved "Yuni". Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle and somehow this is a...fair trade of equal value, given the needs of the respective teams?

bfan,

I explained that in #14.

Padres avg attendance since Petco opened:

2004 37,244
2005 35,429
2006 32,837
2007 34,445
2008 29,970

I wonder what 2009 will bring. 25k? Of course, I am an OC guy always looking for cheap tickets, so it's not all bad news for me.

I understand the explanation, but the notion is that you get a pretty darn good MLB SS; a young pitcher with MLB experience; a reliever with a 95 mph fastball who might do really well if he wasn't warmed up 125 games a year; and a very good prospect for the outfield, with a skill set that matches the park, in return for a (great) pitcher. This fills 2 holes on your roster with people better than there now; fills the hole left by peavy with an inferior but servicable (and maybe better than servicable) player, and still gives you the best prospect you would have for the OF.


This isn't a Bobby Abreu 5 minor leaguers for 1 MLB player swap, where you hope some of the 5 minor leaguers make it. To me, this just doesn't feel like a fire sale.

cubs just aquired kevin gregg from the marlins, maybe that will help with the pitching they needed to move to get peavy

Somehow I doubt it.

Unless they're thinking about doing something like including Carmol or Bullpen Jesus in a trade for Peavy... which I don't think would bother me too much.

Samardzija has a full no trade clause and he's not waiving it.

I don't understand the hand-wringing by Braves fans over losing Escobar. He's a good player, perhaps he'll be an All-Star someday in the near future. Peavy has already won a Cy Young award and is as good a bet as anyone (...maybe non-Lincecum division) to win some more. And he's not some old dude either, he's a year and a half older than Escobar! No offense to Escobar, but it's a lot more difficult to pick up players the caliber of Peavy than it is players the caliber of Escobar.

I don't understand the hand-wringing by Braves fans over losing Escobar.

Mine is that I feel Esco will be a really good player in the next three years and I feel confident that Bobby Cox will find a way to injury Jake Peavy.

Without Hudson and without even one major league outfielder in the organization, the Braves will be pretty bad next year. They should be accumulating resources for '10 when Hudson returns and Hansen, Hayward, Freeman, etc. will be ready for prime time. This deal will just take some of those resources and spend them on an ace for a 90 loss 2009 team. Pointless.

I feel confident that Bobby Cox will find a way to injury Jake Peavy.

What??

Is there another manager in the history of baseball with a better record of managing pitching talent?

I should say I'm with Biff, and I'll go another and say Braves fans are out of their freakin' minds not to love this deal.

Jake Peavy should not be for sale. He's signed to a fantastic contract, and he's one of the five to ten best pitchers in baseball. Being able to pick him up at a cost of one above average player and some minor leaguers is a ridiculous steal.

The Dan Kolb/Chris Reitsma years have changed him. He no longer trusts his bullpen, and given the dreck out there, I can't really blame him.

Seeing your projected 1-4 starters to start the year go down for a large chunk of the season with arm injuries (Hudson; Smoltz; Glavine; James) has a way of making you look askance at any deal for a pitcher. Especially when one of the replacements for the 4 was coming off a 2 year, 4 injury saga.

As someone else said, it is pretty good deal for the Braves, unless the 1 guy they get, gets injured and cannot perform. At least Teixera could be in the line-up every day, while the 5 we gave up for him excelled in the minors. If peavy spends more time with Dr. andrews than dr. Cox, we are in a heap of trouble.

BTW-Cox doesn't ruin starters at all; he ruins relievers, for the sake of keeping starters pitch counts down.

They should be accumulating resources for '10 when Hudson returns and Hansen, Hayward, Freeman, etc. will be ready for prime time.

Peavy isn't a damn good resource for '10?

"Peavy isn't a damn good resource for '10?"

Yes, but in '09 he should have no pitch count of over 110, and unless they are in contention (fat chance), he should throw no pitch after Septemebr 15, 2009. While we are at it, no pitching appearance before May 1 (avoid those cold weather starts). That should limit him to between 160 and 170 innings; I am fine with that.

I tend to agree with the Red Sox fans. This is a pretty good deal for the Braves. While Escobar (and the other players) are valuable, guys of Peavy's caliber just aren't available. So while we might not be getting a "bargain" by paying Peavy 15mm per year, there is no Jake Peavy store, but there are a few free agent SS who can nearly replicate Escobar's performance. We want to maximize total performance, not performance per dollar, and that means finding as many superstars as we can. As much as I like Escobar, I don't think he's ever going to be a superstar, and the odds are heavily against the rest of the guys in the deal reaching that level either.

On a related note - Tommy Hanson reported in a DOB column in the AJC today that Frank Wren met with him last week and told him he wouldn't be traded. That's gotta be pretty rare for a prospect to hear that from his GM and says something about the kind of player the Braves think Hanson is going to be. He's certainly dominated the AFL as its never been dominated before from a pitching standpoint (as far as I can tell, at least).

I tend to agree with the Red Sox fans. This is a pretty good deal for the Braves.

What Kyle said (and really, it's pretty rare you're going to get me to agree with the Red Sox people.) A lot of Braves fans fall in love with the idea of players rather than the actual players. Escobar is one of the players that gets the big love. Which is fine, as far as it goes. Escobar is a very good player, a top-tier SS who is young and cheap. He's the sort of player you need in your organization. You only give him up for a really big impact, stud sort of player.

Like Jake Peavy.

Peavy makes the Braves' rotation in 2009 something better than "holy crap!" He gives Jair Jurrjens the opportunity to be a #2 or #3 and not get killed trying to carry a staff. He pushes Reyes/Campillo/whomever down to their natural turns in the rotation. In 2010 he gives you a serious 1-2 punch when Hudson returns. In order to get that you give up your starting SS - a player you can replace from the FA market or with Brent Lillibridge - one of your two CF prospects, notably the one that is still couple of years away, and a couple of fungible arms.

You do that in a heartbeat. And then you take that $50 mil you have to spend this offseason and look at outfielders, knowing you can get a second-tier starter and not have to blow your wad on AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe.

I love reading what Sam has to say when it's not about punching umpires. :-)

I also think that Campillo is going to to surpass Jurrjens this year on your staff, as far as effectiveness. I feel a leap coming.

As long as that's actually a leap for Campillo, rather than a dive for Jurrjens, that's fine. I'll bet that a lot of Braves fans share my concerns about Campillo. While I don't think he's quite Jorge Sosa v2.0, I expect him to regress in 2009. I hope I'm wrong.

The thing with this is the more you talk about it, the more you feel you are giving up more than you should.
If someone just popped it up that the braves are trading for Peavy and giving up Yuni/Gorkys/Morton, I think i would have been pretty pleased. But given the endless talk about this , everyday the package just seems costlier. Just some psychological stuff I guess.

All that said, while I think it would be a good trade for the Braves, the posters here are underselling Yunel a bit. A young SS, under control for 5 yrs, awesome defence, good OBP and what looks like burgeoning power in a SS is very valuable. He is no Hanley, but 10-15 HRs, top 3 defensive SS and and 370ish OBP is pretty damn valuable.

The Dan Kolb/Chris Reitsma years have changed him. He no longer trusts his bullpen, and given the dreck out there, I can't really blame him.

Holy hell, I hadn't heard D** K***'s name uttered for such a long time it almost didn't ring a bell! Curse you for uttering it!

I do have a soft spot for Reitsma, I wish him well.

Samardzija has a full no trade clause and he's not waiving it.

How many other guys in the recent past have gotten locked up with 5 year contracts (+2 option years) and a full no trade clause before seeing so much as an inning of major league action?

All that said, while I think it would be a good trade for the Braves, the posters here are underselling Yunel a bit. A young SS, under control for 5 yrs, awesome defence, good OBP and what looks like burgeoning power in a SS is very valuable. He is no Hanley, but 10-15 HRs, top 3 defensive SS and and 370ish OBP is pretty damn valuable.

A good rule of thumb: if you're referring to the player by his first name (or by some equally friendly nickname - 'Tek' or 'Jetes' for example) you're probably going to over value their contributions to the team. Escobar is a very good player. No one is claiming otherwise. But if he's the piece that needs to be sent over to get Jake Peavy, you accept that and move on. Peavy is a far more valuable piece of a team - specifically a team with the Braves' farm system and/or free agent money - than is Escobar.

Another rule of thumb: if you're having second thoughts waiting on the deal to go through, that's probably more "buyer's remorse" on your part than a analytic insight. No offense, but Charlie Morton didn't suddenly get more valuable over the last three days.