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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Rosenthal: When Dodgers’ season ends, the real game begins

When last seen...Robothal was out buying a red velvet coat just like Craig Sager’s.

Mussina’s choice

Friends of Yankees right-hander Mike Mussina are still convinced he will retire. One possible reason: Mussina fears that the Yankees will not be good enough next season for him to sufficiently chip away at the 30 victories he needs for 300.

Mussina, who turns 40 on Dec. 8, would consider playing for other teams near his home in Montoursville, Pa., but those teams either play in small ballparks (Phillies, Red Sox) or face their own competitive issues (Pirates, Orioles, Nationals, Indians). The Mets? Not happening.

One other thing about Mussina: His expectations of himself are so high, he could not tolerate getting hammered again the way he was in 2007. Better to go out on top, which is what he would be doing after his first 20-win season.

Repoz Posted: October 15, 2008 at 03:14 PM | 14 comment(s)
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   1. Gainsay Posted: October 15, 2008 at 03:55 PM (#2983020)
It's weird that Mussina thinks the Yanks may not be competitive enough next season to help him get the 15+ wins he'd need to be on pace for 300. They certainly weren't great this year and he was able to get 20 wins. It's easy to see the Yanks getting better if they spend heavily in free agency. Either way he seems like a HoFer to me, but I'd like to see him stick around and pad his career numbers even more, and potentially add some more post-season success.
   2. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: October 15, 2008 at 04:16 PM (#2983049)
Nah, Mussina is indirectly saying he wants a 3 year contract to return to NYY
   3. andrewberg of udub law Posted: October 15, 2008 at 04:52 PM (#2983086)
He could make sense for the Phillies on a two year deal. Their window is open right now and Mussina would be fine at the back of the rotaiton with Moyer. If he limits his walks as well as he did this year and his HR rate shows only the NY -> Philly bump, he would be a very useful 3rd starter behind Hamels and Myers.
   4. Skinner! Posted: October 15, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2983109)
Cano for Kemp? Bad deal for the Dodgers. And who are the other three guys the A's were going to get besides Blake Dewitt for Blanton in July 07? The lack of that info makes me suspicious of that deal.
   5. smilinmike Posted: October 15, 2008 at 05:44 PM (#2983131)
Rosenthal's wording - "One possible reason" Mussina will likely retire reeks of a trick of journalism. If you can't interview someone then speculate on their motives and present it in such a way as to look like you have some inside information. It seems to me that Rosenthal is the one who thinks the Yankees may not have enough to get him those 30 wins, not Mussina.

The Yankees won 89 games last season. They won 94-101 each of the 7 other seasons he spent with the team. They consistently lead the league in payroll. Mussina is a smart guy. Don't you think he knows that it is unlikely that the Yankees will suddenly plummet from contention, even in the AL East? Doesn't he know that the Yankees will win quite a few ballgames the next few years? Then again, who knows? I didn't interview him either.
   6. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: October 15, 2008 at 05:50 PM (#2983134)
Cano for Kemp? Bad deal for the Dodgers.
That rumor has been floated for months, and it's part of a trend.
For some reason, Kemp's name keeps getting attached to leaked trade proposals that end with the Dodgers getting hosed. Check BBTF's archives.
The worst part of these rumors is people would jump on Colletti for... I dunno, being GM of a team attached to a bad trade rumor. Seriously, I hope Ned gets canned after the season yet I found myself more often than not here defending him.
   7. Srul Itza Posted: October 15, 2008 at 06:12 PM (#2983150)
Geez, Robothal is turning into Gammons with all the ridiculous trade rumors and speculation.
   8. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: October 15, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2983177)
Olney is saying the opposite than Robo ("there is a growing sense Mike Mussina may return for another season, as well, although Mussina has not indicated a final decision, one way or another.").

http://tinyurl.com/3hh772

Frankly, I think that every day that goes by that Moose DOESN'T retire is a clearer sign he's coming back (really, if the guy wanted to retire, he would have by now), under the same premise as Ben Franklin's epigram that neither a fortress nor a maidenhead will hold out long after either begins to parlay.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 15, 2008 at 07:09 PM (#2983186)
I thought the thing about DeWitt being in the Dodgers' Blanton offer, and the A's wanting DeJesus instead, was pretty interesting.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: October 15, 2008 at 07:43 PM (#2983202)
If money were no object, I'd trade Kemp for Cano with few qualms whatsoever.

The qualms? Defense. Can Kemp stick in CF? If so, he's a good value; if not, he's not worth that much. Was Cano's overall defense this year just a short-term slump or a sign of things to come?

But Kemp is a high-K hitter whose true talent is probably around the 100ish OPS+ he posted this season. On contact, he hit 389/614. That first number simply is not sustainable, probably especially for a RHB. The second number might improve but probably not enough. Put him at a more reasonable 350/650 and you're talking a guy with an overall BA/SLG of 260/490. His walk rate is poor, would improve somewhat with that jump in power, but 260/320/490. That's nice in CF, definitely uninteresting in a corner and only mildly better than what he did this year.

Cano's career numbers are probably much more reflective of his true talent. He has a low K-rate, moderate power. His walk rate is even more atrocious but the low-K rate makes it much more likely he'll maintain a BA in the 290-300 range. And he has a higher "established upside" than Kemp. Yes, Kemp is 2 years younger but the ML success he's had to date has been due to what I consider a performance that he is highly unlikely to sustaint going forward. I don't see much reason to think he'll improve substantially from where he is.

They probably rate out about equal on offensive projection so it would come down to positional value (plus what I have in the organization), defense, whether you think Kemp can stick in CF and money. Money would win out and I'd hold onto Kemp.

But I sense that folks think Kemp has a much brighter future than Cano and I see no reason to think that's true. Kemp seems over-rated around here. The bright spots for me with Kemp is mainly that his minor-league K-rate was much better which suggests he might improve his ML K-rate.
   11. Ivan Grushenko of HK in St Louis Posted: October 16, 2008 at 12:52 AM (#2983551)
I thought the thing about DeWitt being in the Dodgers' Blanton offer, and the A's wanting DeJesus instead, was pretty interesting.

It implies that the other three players would have been better than either. Wow.
   12. Dan Posted: October 16, 2008 at 03:24 AM (#2983591)
It didn't read to me that DeWitt and DeJesus were an either/or for the fourth player. It read to me that DeWitt was a done deal as the fourth player, and that the holdup was DeJesus vs. whomever the Dodgers wanted to substitute.
   13. Ivan Grushenko of HK in St Louis Posted: October 16, 2008 at 03:35 AM (#2983593)
I wonder Hu that was
   14. Skinner! Posted: October 16, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2983962)
If the A's were getting three players better than Dewitt plus Dewitt, I can't believe that they turned that deal down because they didn't get Dejesus.
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