"The Pirates, however, would not deal center fielder Nate McLouth for Cano, and they will not move McLouth at all unless it was for 'a dramatic overpay,' according to a baseball executive with knowledge of the team's plans."

Good.

Not sure who'd trade for Nyjer, but if Robo thinks there's a market, that's fine with me.

Yeah, Rosenthal only really offers Adam LaRoche as someone the Pirates might trade that anybody would be interested. OK, Wilson as well but I don't see the Yanks swapping Cano for Wilson. LaRoche is an interesting idea for the Yanks though -- his last year of arb but still cheap (Rosenthal guesses $7 M for 09), solid average-ish 1B, I assume OK with the glove, LH with some power. He's basically Tino Martinez (#2 on his b-r comp list which also features David Ortiz, Nick Johnson and Jason Giambi :-).

Of course it just opens a hole at 2B but as Rosenthal points out elsewhere, Hudson's on the market, Uggla's about to get "expensive" and Brian Roberts is in the last year before FA.

If I were the Yanks, I'd just hold onto Cano. But if they're intent on dealing him, Cano for LaRoche wouldn't be a bad deal.

Cano for Nyjer Morgan would be a laugh riot.

The Pirates should be able to get something decent for Wilson; nothing for Sanchez.

I hadn't thought of it before, but the Alvarez draft and signing makes the Bay trade look even worse. Not only has Andy LaRoche still not hit a lick, but he's probably out the door in a year or two anyway. I see Brandon Moss is hurt through almost all of next season (and he didn't hit well but maybe that was related to the injury). Craig Hansen had one of those "only on the Pirates" K/BB ratios of 7/20. I don't remember who the 4th guy was but he better turn into something special.

Oh, and the Pirates had the worst pitching/defense in the NL ... so they're looking for bats.

I don't remember who the 4th guy was but he better turn into something special.

Carlos Santana. He was/is the most valuable player in the deal.

EDIT: From the Pirates' point of view, that is.

If I were the Yanks, I'd just hold onto Cano. But if they're intent on dealing him, Cano for LaRoche wouldn't be a bad deal.

How would it not be a bad deal for the Yankees?

Looking for bats? Try Carlsbad Caverns or Austin.

Carlos Santana. He was/is the most valuable player in the deal.


Carlos Santana was in the Blake deal. Bryan Morris was the 4th player who went to Pittsburgh.

Morris is a very good prospect, FWIW.

I still think little LaRoche is going to turn it around in '09, too.

Just wondering: If the Royals are unwilling to trade right-hander Zack Grienke except for a monster package, then why don't they sign him to a contract extension?

Probably because Dayton doesn't approach players about contract extensions mid-season (Soria came to him), and they wanted to see if Greinke could put it together for a full season before committing to him.

Carlos Santana went to the Indians in the Casey Blake trade. The Dodgers sent pitcher Bryan Morris with Andy LaRoche to Pittsburgh.

If I were the Yanks, I'd just hold onto Cano. But if they're intent on dealing him, Cano for LaRoche wouldn't be a bad deal.

Eh, seems like a bad deal to me. I've got LaRoche and Cano projected to be about roughly the same in value relative to their positions, so you're swapping a 26 year old who plays a premium defensive position for a 29 year old who plays arguably the least important defensive position on the field. Cano's already signed for the next few years too.

Eh, seems like a bad deal to me. I've got LaRoche and Cano projected to be about roughly the same in value relative to their positions, so you're swapping a 26 year old who plays a premium defensive position for a 29 year old who plays arguably the least important defensive position on the field.

Not to mention that one of the best 1B in baseball is a free agent, and the Yankees have a lot more money to throw around than they do talent.

Dang Brewers make the play-offs for the first time in forever and all anyone can talk about is where and how their team will be busted up, come November.

Morgan is 28, and the team’s top outfield prospect, Andrew McCutchen, is nearly ready for the majors.

I read that quickly and thought it meant that Morgan is their top outfield prospect. Since it's the Pirates, it didn't surprise me.

Wait... the Pirates won't deal McLouth for Cano? Am I reading this right? If the Pirates offered that deal 8 months ago, they would have heard a dial tone. You can't tell me in one season Cano goes from being a top-3 2nd bagger in all of baseball to an inferior commodity to Nate McLouth. McLouth is a year older, horrible defensively, and there is nothing in his career numbers to indicate he can sustain this level of production. By contrast, Cano had consecutive seasons of OPS+ > 120, with above average defense. For both players, 2008 looks like a statistical anomoly.

Not sure who'd trade for Nyjer, but if Robo thinks there's a market, that's fine with me.

Fine with me too...... One thing I don't want to see. Nyjer starting for the Pirates in April. Would be really depressing.

Is McLouth horrible defensively or just below average for center? With his speed I think he'd be fine in a corner. As for his career numbers they are pretty good, before the year I said if the Pirates let him play everyday he'd score 100 runs, though I didn't expect this much power. I think he can maintain most of his 2008 production.

You're right though, the Yankees should resist selling low on Cano. Let him get off to a fast start and he'll regain trade value, another slow start and I doubt his value can go much lower than it is today.

Post 15:

Nate hit at just about every minor league stop and had an OPS of .810 before this year's .853.

He is 27. But the jump isn't Norm Cashian

You might want to take a close look at McLouth's career before saying stuff like that, #15. He hit just as well after becoming the regular CF in 2007 as he did in 2008, and there are some quality seasons on his minor league record, too.

Cano is a pretty crappy defender in his own right, and he's locked into an expensive deal despite a very marginal 2008. If he doesn't bounce back, he's an albatross for years.

How bad could his contract be? Can't be anything the Yankees are unwilling to eat if they have to ship him off (in some dire worst-case future scenario, that is).

Any theories on why he had such a down year, anyway? I don't watch the Yanks very often, and listening to the NY media/fans you'd think it was all because he's "lazy".

I think it was the scout who signed Mantle who called him "a baseball machine." McLouth's very similar, though three rungs down the ladder. Sometimes you can still see with your eyes what you can't see in the numbers.

#11 and #12 ... now y'all did notice the part about I wouldn't trade him but if the Yanks are intent on moving him then LaRoche wouldn't be a bad deal.

And, what do you know, in #11 you tell me they're projected as equal relative to position. Well, gosh darn it, how horribly unfair that the Yanks might only receive a player of equal value in return.

And what does it matter if Cano plays a premium defensive position if LaRoche is just as valuable relative to position? Did I miss the memo on league-average 2B being way more valuable than league-average 1B?

Anyway, the question is "if the Yanks are itching to trade Cano (attitude problems, can't handle NY, whatever reason they might have convinced themselves of), what can they get for him?" Coming off the season he's had, I think you'd find the market pretty thin. And Cano is owed at least $27 M over the next 3 years (or $41 M over the next 4 or $56 M over 5). So the Pirates would be wanting some cash in that deal too. :-)

That of course is a good reason not to trade Cano and hope he bounces back.

And before anyone pipes up about what a bargain that contract will be in its later years, bear in mind that unless I missed someone, Utley in 2009 will be the first 2B to ever make more than $10 M. (Soriano would have beaten him to it but that was the season the Nats moved him to LF.) Rightly or wrongly, 2B don't get superstar contracts (since Sandberg at least). Cano, if options are exercised, is slated to make as much in 2012-13 as Utley. I'm guessing $15 M a year will still buy a mighty fine 2B in 2012.

Yes, it's patently absurd that Brian Roberts will only cost the O's (or whoever) $8 M next year while Jose Guillen is getting $12 M and Matthews $10 M and Pierre $9 M and even Dye at $11 M doesn't look so good compared to that. But such are the oddities of the baseball labor market. Will Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson crack $10 M this offseason? They might, barely, if teams are as rich as it sounds like ... bur rest assured some far less valuable OF or 1B will sign for more.

I still think little LaRoche is going to turn it around in '09, too.

I don't. He is simply too passive at the plate.

-- MWE

You have to admit that it seemed like the Pirates were intentionally seeking out hitters who are too passive at the plate, first being linked to Brignac when the trade was with the D-Rays, and now with LaRoche. Presumably they think they have some kind of plan to fix this kind of guy.

Mike:

Agreed. His defense is ML quality. But I am still trying to connect the minor league hitter with the guy I saw umpteen times as the Brewers finished the season.

Any theories on why he had such a down year, anyway?

his "down year" was really a horrible April (.151/.211/.236) followed by a decent May-Aug. (.300/.331/.458) another bad stretch in early Sept. The April slump was hard to figure out, but he may have just lost his swing. The Sept. slump is what raised the focus/work ethic issues, when it looked like he had basically checked out when the Yankees fell out of the race. About the same time he was called out and Girardi pulled him for dogging a play he changed his stance (closing it off, cutting down on the movement before the swing) and looked like he was really hitting the ball well. So there's reason to believe he'll be back, maybe not a 120 OPS+ guy, but still valuable. He's only 25, remember.

Cano is a pretty crappy defender in his own right, and he's locked into an expensive deal despite a very marginal 2008. If he doesn't bounce back, he's an albatross for years

cano's actually a pretty good defender, in his own right, when his head isn't up his ass. which it was for a stretch in the 2nd half of the year. his problem is always consistency, he'll make a very difficult play look easy and then nonchalant and boot the easy play.

from SG over at RLYW

Robinson Cano had a very strange season on both sides of the ball. We know he hit like garbage for most of the year. What’s interesting about his defense is he was actually playing very well through July 9, as detailed here. Cano went from a zone rating of .865 and a runs saved above average of +8 to a zone rating of .799 and a runs saved above average of -8 in a span of 49 games. From September 5 on he seemed to recover, putting up a zone rating of .884 and saving 4 runs above average over the rest of the season.

Marginal defender is sometimes good, sometimes poor? Color me shocked!

Marginal defender is sometimes good, sometimes poor?

Sometimes good in this case is being good for 2 and a half years and sometimes poor in this case is being (comically) poor for about a month.

Color me shocked!

I like how an NL fan is going to tell a bunch of Yankee fans (one of whom is a defensive numbers guy) who know the numbers backwards and see the guy everyday how good he is defensively.

Hey, at least he moved Cano from pretty crappy to marginal. That's an improvement right?

Seriously, the meme that Cano is a bad defender is just not backed up by most stats. I'm pretty sure UZR had him as plus in 2006 and 2007, and ZR has him as about average (+ 5 runs saved career over 4 seasons). I think RZR may disagree.

And, what do you know, in #11 you tell me they're projected as equal relative to position. Well, gosh darn it, how horribly unfair that the Yanks might only receive a player of equal value in return.

But a 26 year old who's projected as equivalent to a 29 year old is far more likely to exceed his projection, right? Upside has value too.

Yankees fans are the ultimate authority on the defensive aptitude of Yankees. Just ask Jeter.

Vlad, have you ever read what the Yankee fans here have to say about Jeter's defense?

You might want to take a close look at McLouth's career before saying stuff like that, #15.

I did. He was a .292/.363/.427 hitter in the minors, with a HR every 52 AB's. He did absolutely nothing in his first two MLB cameos, had a moderate breakout in 2007, then a big first half this year. Maybe he's a late bloomer... but Cano's MLB track record seems to be a much more reliable sample size than McLouth's first three months of 2008, when he clubbed EBH's at an exponentially higher rate than at any other point in his professional career.

And to clarify, I understand McLouth is just entering his power prime... but his 19 HR's in the first half of 2008 is a complete statistical outlier and my central argument is simply that the chances of a Cano rebound > a McLouth repeat.

McLouth was young at every level of the minors. It's not his fault that the Pirate organization was full of jerks who gave his well-earned at bats to a schlep like Chris Duffy.

There was no reason to think that McLouth wouldn't be what he is: a 280/350/500 hitter. The glove in CF is a worry, but he's respectable in LF (I'm guessing his fielding would be well-above average in LF). He's probably an average player, either in LF or in CF.

But a 26 year old who's projected as equivalent to a 29 year old is far more likely to exceed his projection, right? Upside has value too.

More likely, not so sure about "far" more likely. I'd guess peaks at 26 are about as common as peaks at 29.

But, once again, my statement was it wouldn't be a BAD deal. These two guys are close in terms of current value, next year's projected value and probably projected value over the next 3 years or so, maybe at about the same cost. Or at least such is my guess eyeballing the numbers. And 1B is a current positional need of the Yanks unless they want to live with Giambi and/or Matsui for another year. That's close enough that it's "fair" return.

I'm open to other suggested realistic trades for Cano.

And, what do you know, in #11 you tell me they're projected as equal relative to position. Well, gosh darn it, how horribly unfair that the Yanks might only receive a player of equal value in return.

Find me an available first baseman for the Yankees on the free agent market.

Now find me an available second baseman.

Which one is better?

Trading Cano for a first baseman of equal value would be an idiotic move.

The more I think about it, the more I think McLouth for Cano would be great for the Pirates. Cano is controlled for a good amount of time, and I tend to think he'll bounce back (on both sides of the ball). OTOH McLouth is a lousy defensive CFer who can probably be replaced by McCutchen before too long, so the Bucs deal from a surplus to fill an up the middle position.

Cano would eat probably half of the $15M the Pirates have for shopping this offseason (depending on the size of Nate's arb award), and they've already said that they want to try and buy a corner OF, SP, and veteran RP. Unless the Yankees kick in a whole bunch of money, it's probably not even on the table.

Trading Nate would also be pretty disastrous from a PR perspective. He's very popular, and attendance dropped off significantly after the Bay and Nady trades. If they flip Nate too, it'll shank their offseason ticket sales right in the kidney. Thus, they just aren't going to want to flip him for anything less than a ######'-A type trade (and whether they should or not is a separate question from whether they will, of course).

Trading Nate would also be pretty disastrous from a PR perspective. He's very popular, and attendance dropped off significantly after the Bay and Nady trades. If they flip Nate too, it'll shank their offseason ticket sales right in the kidney. Thus, they just aren't going to want to flip him for anything less than a ######'-A type trade (and whether they should or not is a separate question from whether they will, of course).

Don't be silly, Vlad. Everyone knows that fans only consider team wins when making their attendance decisions. Individual players don't matter at all.

The Jays are in a similar situation, actually, in that their most valuable trading chit is also their most popular player (Halladay!). Any attempt to trade him, even for a big return, would likely result in attendance cratering, even if it did improve the team.

"And to clarify, I understand McLouth is just entering his power prime... but his 19 HR's in the first half of 2008 is a complete statistical outlier and my central argument is simply that the chances of a Cano rebound > a McLouth repeat."

Nate as a starter, 2007: .273/.368/.492 (304 PA), 26 AB/HR.
Nate in 2008: .276/.356/.497 (685 PA), 23 AB/HR.

Yup, he's a fluke. No way he'd ever repeat that performance.

And yes, 19 HR in the first half is a statistical outlier... but so is 7 in the second. Or are we only giving Cano credit for things like that?

Just because it's interesting, Cano's career PROPS line:

2005: .292/.313/.439
2006: .299/.322/.458
2007: .283/.331/.439
2008: .289/.321/.427

That's pretty impressively consistent. Unless he's a lot faster than I remember and it's underrating him based on speed, maybe he's just a high-variability player with a true talent level close to his real-world career line (.303/.335/.468)?

I really don't know, and I'm curious what the board thinks.

If they flip Nate too, it'll shank their offseason ticket sales right in the kidney

Not that they necessarily should be dealing McLouth, and this is going to end up sounding more snide in I'm-a-Yankee-fan kind of way then I mean it, but do the Pirates have an off-season ticket sales base to worry about shanking in the kidney? They only drew 19,865 per game last season, a number that's propped up by the Yankee games. How much worse can attendance sink that this has to be a reasonable consideration?

I know it draws mockery that fans don't care about players and only want to see a team win (and there's truth in that) but at this point the Pirates have been so bad for so long that you have to believe putting a winner on the field is the only thing that can restore attendance.

EDIT: To add, because this is my pet peeve, Cano's "bad year" was really a "bad April." From May 4 on he hit .300/.327/.452, which isn't at his 2006-07 level, but which makes him an above average offensive player. Trading him for Adam LaRoche is insane.

I know it draws mockery that fans don't care about players and only want to see a team win (and there's truth in that) but at this point the Pirates have been so bad for so long that you have to believe putting a winner on the field is the only thing that can restore attendance.

Are the Pirates likely to be able to get proper value for McLouth in terms of ready-for-the-majors-now talent? If not, it'll probably cost them more in attendance to trade him then they would gain for chasing after a winning season next year. Besides, if they trade him, who's left for people to cheer?

The projection systems (PECOTA, CHONE, ZiPS etc.) had Canó down for an .800 OPS or so in 2008, much better than his actual line of course but a meaningful dropoff from prior years. There clearly were some warning signs in the statistical record.

"They only drew 19,865 per game last season, a number that's propped up by the Yankee games."

Side question: By my calculations, they averaged 19,130 fans in non-Yankee home games this year. Why even bring it up? The Yankees were a nice draw, sure... but so were the Skyblast fireworks dates, and the concert dates (Lynyrd Skynyrd! Foghat!), and the Philly dates with all the road-trippers, and a bunch of other stuff.

I don't know how many fans would drift away if they traded Nate, but I know that the front office is already terrified about losing season ticket holders and suite holders. My boss has a suite for the company, and they've been throwing sweeteners at him pretty much non-stop to try and get him locked in for 2009. I enjoy it when it trickles down (I got to take BP on the field a couple of weeks ago), but it's not a good sign for the franchise from a financial perspective.

"Besides, if they trade him, who's left for people to cheer?"

Doumit, I guess. Which is pretty scary, since his hammies blow out if you look at 'em too hard.

All of this Nate-Cano discussion also ignores, of course, that the Pirates don't actually have an OF surplus. They might in a year or two, but right now, they've got:

Nate, who is awesome.
Pearce, who is in the org's doghouse, big-time.
Moss, who just had microfracture knee surgery and is out until ST.
Nyjer, who is a fifth OF at best.

And on the farm:
McCutchen, who is a great prospect, but whose 2008 MLE (from Dan) was .254/.328/.352.
Tabata, who is at least a year away from being ready, and maybe more.
Romak, who just made it to AA at the end of the year.

And that's it. If you trade Nate, your starting OF is a guy who might not be healthy, a guy who probably isn't ready, and a guy the org doesn't trust, with no real options behind any of them. Which sucks.

Side question: By my calculations, they averaged 19,130 fans in non-Yankee home games this year. Why even bring it up? The Yankees were a nice draw, sure... but so were the Skyblast fireworks dates, and the concert dates (Lynyrd Skynyrd! Foghat!), and the Philly dates with all the road-trippers, and a bunch of other stuff.

Sorry, meant to put this in and didn't. The answer is because the Yankees aren't coming back in 2009, so unless they're being replaced with Boston, the Pirates are going to lose that bonus whereas firework nights, concert, the Phillies etc. etc. will all return in 2009.

As for your other comments, perhaps I'm misreading the Pirates situation. My impression that was that they were getting close to the basement level you could get and while trading McLouth might turn a few away, there weren't all that many people exciting about going to Pirates games to watch him go 3-for-5 while the team gets spanked by the Dodgers or Astros or whatever.

However, if they really see themselves losing substantial numbers and getting down into Marlin territory, that changes the game.

Trading Cano for a first baseman of equal value would be an idiotic move.

And if you could find a sentence where I suggested the Yanks should trade Cano, you would have a point.

Find me an available first baseman for the Yankees on the free agent market.

Now find me an available second baseman.

Which one is better?

Ellis and the roughly $10-15 M a year less than Teixeira that he will cost can go a long way. Brian Roberts might be available in trade, so might Dan Uggla (and his ugly defense). Orlando Hudson is out there but he's coming off a sub-par season and an injury. Also remember, Cano will cost you $29-56 M over the next 3-5 years as well -- I don't think Ellis will cost you quite that much but I could be wrong. I'd guess that LaRoche and Ellis combined would cost you no more and possibly less per year than a year of Teixeira and you probably only need to bring them on for 3-4 years. That's not going to be as much production as Teixeira and Cano (though at the AS break, Dial's OPD had them as equal) but it likely won't be that far off and it gives you an extra $10 M a year to throw at CC.

Of players on the 2008 Yanks, I'm not sure anyone but AROD will project as a better hitter than LaRoche for 2009. Fair enough, I'm not adjusting for league differences which could be substantial (though it didn't seem to bother that nice Mr. Teixeira).

Regardless, my point is that IF the Yanks want to move Cano for whatever crazy reasons they might cook up (remember? it was Rosenthal who raised the idea of the Yanks trading Cano which started this whole thread), they will not find a very good market for him. After this season with the bat, defense and questioning of his attitude, he is not going to be viewed as a good defensive 25-year-old 2B who'll put up a 120 OPS+ and is cost-controlled. He's expensive, a quick Marcel puts him at about a 105 OPS+ and coming off a bad season with questions about his attitude. Bummer, but that's now roughly a league average 2B.

Since that's the case, the Yanks SHOULD hold onto him and hope that was all just a bump in the road and that he turns back into the good defensive 2B who'll post a 120 OPS+ ... or at least something better than a league average 2B.

Moss, who just had microfracture knee surgery

Isn't that an extremely risky procedure? This is the same guy who was quoted repeatedly saying that even if the doctors said his knee was a time bomb, he felt absolutely no pain and did not see the need for any surgery at all, and was basically taken straight off the field after playing numerous consecutive games for this scheduled procedure? I wonder what's going on.

McLouth may be the Pirates' biggest star right now, but 8 months ago nobody in Pgh could tell him from Chris Duffy. If they trade him and then Andy LaRoche or Doumit hits .350 with 15 homers in April/May, the attendance will soar from the McLouth-trade-depressed 18,000 all the way back to 19,000.

The White Sox also are expected to be in the market for a second baseman, with Alexei Ramirez moving to shortstop and Orlando Cabrera departing as a free agent.

Wait, really? I thought he was bad enough as a 2b. At least KLaw thinks so.