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Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Rosenthal: Red Sox might be wise to wash hands of Manny

Robothal with the latest Goop.

A’s general manager Billy Beane says Dwight Gooden and Rich Harden are the two most dominant pitchers he has seen, putting them ahead of even Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson.

“I’m not saying they’re better — that’s not my point — but when you see Rich and Doc at the right time, hitters look defeated,” Beane says. “When Clemens was dominant, when Randy Johnson was dominant, they would blow people away. But guys would still take swings up there like they thought they were going to get ‘em.

“You see them take swings off Rich, and it’s like, ‘If I make an out on the first pitch, OK, I’m fine, I know when I’m overmatched.’ On that given day, he can humble guys. It’s like, ‘I’ve got no shot to get this guy. I’ve got to get lucky.’”

Is Beane simply pumping up Harden’s trade value? Perhaps, but it’s doubtful that any team will meet Beane’s price, considering Harden’s injury history and the A’s status as a contender. The A’s, whose run differential is the third-best in the AL, will continue assuming the risk with Harden if no team makes them a knockout offer; Harden is earning a mere $4.5 million this season, and the club holds a $7 million option on him for 2009.

Repoz Posted: July 01, 2008 at 06:01 PM | 34 comment(s)
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   1. Tim Lincecum-stain (SuperBaes) Posted: July 01, 2008 at 06:21 PM (#2839286)
The Dodgers still are unsure of their identity. Their offense is horrid, but shortstop Rafael Furcal, infielder Nomar Garciaparra and center fielder Andruw Jones are close to returning from injuries. At that point, perhaps the Dodgers will pursue a starting pitcher such as Indians left-hander C.C. Sabathia. Or, perhaps the addition of a hitter still will take priority.

Sure, Furcal is a hitter, but is Torre really counting down the days until Garciaparra and Jones return? And is any hitter going to impact this horrendous lineup enough to make a difference?
   2. kevin Posted: July 01, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2839291)
“When Clemens was dominant, when Randy Johnson was dominant, they would blow people away. But guys would still take swings up there like they thought they were going to get ‘em.


Yeah, Krukie and Walker took their swings like they were going to hit The Unit. Sure.
   3. Jimmy P Posted: July 01, 2008 at 06:35 PM (#2839301)
Sure, Furcal is a hitter, but is Torre really counting down the days until Garciaparra and Jones return? And is any hitter going to impact this horrendous lineup enough to make a difference?

Having Furcal back and not batting Pierre first will do wonders.

there is little difference between Ramirez's behavior and Shawn Chacon's — except that Chacon is a journeyman while Ramirez is a future Hall of Famer.


That's the real rub, isn't it? Guys like Chacon are pretty easy to find, guys like Manny aren't. My guess is they'll tolerate Manny as long as he's one of the 10 best hitters in baseball, and that's not changing this season, and it may not be changing next. It's easy to talk the big talk from the reporters seat, but when you have hundreds of millions tied up and are challenging for World Series titles, these decisions get a lot harder.

the White Sox are improved defensively with Nick Swisher taking over for the injured Paul Konerko at first and Brian Anderson and DeWayne Wise alternating in center


This is obviously a man who has not watched DeWayne Wise in center this year. Anderson is an upgrade, Wise sucks.
   4. OCD SS Posted: July 01, 2008 at 06:42 PM (#2839311)
My guess is they'll tolerate Manny as long as he's one of the 10 best hitters in baseball, and that's not changing this season, and it may not be changing next.


Right now Manny is not in the top 10 in OPS in the AL, let alone all of baseball. When that is coupled with his injury concerns and abysmal defense I don't see how he can be counted on as one of the best players in the game.

If the Sox could find a team that would give up something valuable for the privilege of signing Manny to a long(ish) term deal they should jump on it.
   5. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 01, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2839316)
Mets might be wise to wash hands of Moises
   6. rlc Posted: July 01, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2839318)
Damn, Tom beat me to it. I'm pissed.
   7. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 01, 2008 at 07:19 PM (#2839331)
Someone had to be number one.
   8. Dr Love Posted: July 01, 2008 at 07:25 PM (#2839343)
Damn, Tom beat me to it. I'm pissed.


It's okay. Your innate sense of humor is still noted.
   9. Lord Enzo Hernandez Posted: July 01, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2839358)
Damn, Tom beat me to it. I'm pissed.


So are Moises' hands.
   10. John DiFool2 Posted: July 01, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2839365)
I was in a discussion on another forum about Manny's bat speed, and apparently (if the data in question was comprehensive, but I wasn't sure if it was), based on pitch fX data, Manny hasn't homered off a 93+ fastball all year. Note that when he does homer he's going to right more often than not.

Question for the Sox is of course who can replace him? Get Burrell somehow? Let the farmhand Moss take over? [He who has mostly sat on the bench since Papi's injury while Tito plays Coco instead] The current crop of elite LFers is almost as thin as the elite SSes, so they probably wouldn't lose much with Moss out there, compared to the competition.
   11. Chip Posted: July 01, 2008 at 08:04 PM (#2839392)
Note that when he does homer he's going to right more often than not.


Looking at his hitting charts, this isn't true. He's gone to left as often as he's gone to right. He's yet to hit a homer to right at Fenway this year.

The cliche about Manny is that when he's going good, he's taking the ball to right with power. He really hasn't had one of those rightfield power streaks this year, though, save for a handful of games in their last series in Baltimore.
   12. pkb33 Posted: July 01, 2008 at 08:13 PM (#2839405)
I'll take Pedro circa 1999-2001 (pre injury). You can have Harden.
   13. Swedish Chef Posted: July 01, 2008 at 08:19 PM (#2839427)
Beane is definitely in used-car salesman mode here.
   14. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: July 01, 2008 at 08:44 PM (#2839509)
#### Manny Ramirez. That dude was 64 years old!

Also: See J.P., you talk players UP to the press, UP! Did J.P. really work for the A's at one time? That seems like a lifetime ago.
   15. BeanoCook Posted: July 01, 2008 at 09:23 PM (#2839637)
Pretty sloppy headline/story matchup here. This was not the story I clicked on. And no, I did not read the full article. That's not the point. Repoz, get some sleep man.
   16. Jose Can Jussi Jokinen (Justin T) Posted: July 01, 2008 at 09:30 PM (#2839668)
Nearly all of Robo's articles are like that.
   17. zonk Posted: July 01, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2839739)
Do the Cubs have enough to acquire anything worthwhile at the deadline?

With Edmonds apparently going Gaetti (and for 2/3 a season rather than just 1/4!) - I don't really feel the need for an OFer. I suppose Roberts would be useful, but he doesn't really fill a need.

Everyone always wants pitching, and since Lou's already apparently worn Marmol out - another solid bullpen arm couldn't hurt.

I dream about landing Sabathia, signing him, and pairing him with Zambrano for the next 5-6 years -- but I don't think the Cubs have enough to land him nor do I think they can afford him with Soriano, Zambrano, A-Ram, Lee, et al signed for another 3-4 years...

Even a one-year rental would be worth it....
   18. villageidiom Posted: July 01, 2008 at 10:30 PM (#2839847)
If the Sox could find a team that would give up something valuable for the privilege of signing Manny to a long(ish) term deal they should jump on it.
Manny's a 10-and-5 player, so they'd need to find a team that Manny would want to go to.

I'll take Pedro circa 1999-2001 (pre injury). You can have Harden.
Pedro circa 1999-2001 isn't walking through that door.

Right now Manny is not in the top 10 in OPS in the AL, let alone all of baseball. When that is coupled with his injury concerns and abysmal defense I don't see how he can be counted on as one of the best players in the game.
If Manny is hitting his decline phase at the very end of the guaranteed portion of his contract, bravo to Dan Duquette.
   19. Srul Itza Posted: July 01, 2008 at 10:51 PM (#2839902)
Pedro circa 1999-2001 isn't walking through that door.

vi -- nobody was talking about a trade here. That was in resposne to the pull quote above, which was, who is the most dominant pitcher Beane had ever seen. He nominated Gooden and Harden, because batters supposedly looked like they knew they had no chance. I think Pedro easily was in that class.
   20. OCD SS Posted: July 01, 2008 at 10:56 PM (#2839913)
Manny's a 10-and-5 player, so they'd need to find a team that Manny would want to go to.


I'm aware of that; if the Sox get lucky they'll be able to "pull a Sheffeild" with him.

I think once he hired Boras as his agent he signaled that he was looking for more than just having his options exercised. If the Sox can find a place he'd like to go that would be willing to guarantee both options or negotiate a 3 year deal he's probably not going to stand in the way.
   21. Srul Itza Posted: July 01, 2008 at 10:59 PM (#2839916)
Manny may no longer be among the upper elite but an 890 OPS/132 OPS+ is not so readily replaceable as all that. He is 12th in the League in OPS, and probably around 15th or so in OPS+.

I don't see it being worht $20MM, but if you are the Red Sox, can you replace that production, in the free agent market or from the farm, for less?
   22. robinred Posted: July 01, 2008 at 11:04 PM (#2839925)
I don't see it being worht $20MM, but if you are the Red Sox, can you replace that production, in the free agent market or from the farm, for less?


I kind of doubt it, but I think Ramirez will be playing for the Cleveland Indians in 2009-11.
   23. Srul Itza Posted: July 01, 2008 at 11:09 PM (#2839931)
Why do you see Ramirez with the Indians? Anything in particular, or wishful thinking?
   24. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: July 01, 2008 at 11:13 PM (#2839934)
If the Sox decline their option, will they offer him arbitration? He might take it.
   25. robinred Posted: July 01, 2008 at 11:16 PM (#2839937)
Why do you see Ramirez with the Indians? Anything in particular, or wishful thinking?


Not a Tribe fan, (although I do kind of root for them, due to the 60-year drought) them) but I think they will be looking to make a big move, he fits their on-field needs perfectly, and it would be a nice story. I also don't see Epstein and Co wanting to be on the hook either for the option or wanting to give him an extension for his age 37-39 years. I think something will get worked out, one way or the other, such that Ramirez signs a three-year deal in Cleveland.
   26. Darren Posted: July 01, 2008 at 11:31 PM (#2839948)
Manny's option is looking less and less likely to be picked up. OCD nails it. He has been a good, but not elite hitter the past two seasons. If he finishes up at .380/.550 is, that's just not enough to make up for his defense. They should cut bait and offer arbitration, take the picks, and sign Dunn/Burrell/etc., or trade for Bay.
   27. Eddie Gaedel Posted: July 02, 2008 at 02:45 AM (#2840065)
24/Russlan,

I have doubts that Manny accepts arby. He certainly won't get a raise, and is unlikely to match the $20M that he's getting this year. If he accepts arbitration, he's got to expect to take a pay cut... potentially a (maximum) 20% cut all the way down to $16M on a one-year deal.

Now, he has to (or more correctly, Boras must) determine if 1/$16M is smarter than ... I dunno, 3/$40M? 4/$50M? Does he enjoy Boston that much (as well as being on a consistent championship contender)? Taking a one-year deal for your age-37 season is dangerous.

But the Sox absolutely have to offer him arb. If the worst-case scenario is a 900-OPS (130 OPS+) player on a one-year deal for $16-18M, and best-case scenario is that he plays out of his head to position himself for a multi-year deal in 2009 or declines arby to give the team 2x top picks.

BTW, Cot's doesn't list a buyout of that option year.

Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Offer him arby.
   28. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: July 02, 2008 at 03:27 AM (#2840073)
I think Manny gets more than 16 million in arbitration but I don't have a good grasp on these things. If that's the most he gets, you certainly offer him arbitration.
   29. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: July 02, 2008 at 03:29 AM (#2840074)
I don't see it being worht $20MM, but if you are the Red Sox, can you replace that production, in the free agent market or from the farm, for less?

Ramirez is probably a 125 OPS+ hitter for 2009.

Burrell can provide that level of production for 2009. The problem is that he's likely to command a 4 or 5 year deal, but he'll be 32 next year. It's likely that he won't sustain a 125 OPS+ level of production into his late 30's.

Dunn will only be 29 next year and also figures to be a ~125 OPS+ hitter. The problem there is that he's left-handed and it would be nice to have a right-handed bat to complement Ortiz and Drew (signed thru 2010 and 2014, respectively).

Burrell and Dunn are the only two impact outfield bats that figure to be available in the 2008-09 FA class. Teixeira is the biggest name available (they could move Youklis to LF) and he'll only be 29 and he's a swicht-hitter. He's only likely to cost a bundle and want 6+ years.

In 2009-10, the following will be available:

- Jason Bay (31 in 2010)
- Vlad Guerrero (34 in 2010)
- Magglio Ordonez (36 in 2010)

Remember, the Sox have a $20M option on Ramirez for 2010 as well as 2009 (assuming they exercise the latter).

If they don't think that they've got a shot at Teixeira, I wonder if their best option might not be to keep Ramirez thru 2010.

Assuming that Burrell and Dunn get similar deals to Carlos Lee ($100M/6yr) and Teixeira a bit more, the question becomes:

- Ramirez at $40M/2yr for age 37-38 seasons
- Burrell at $100M/6yr for age 32-37 seasons
- Dunn at $100M/6yr for age 29-34 seasons
- Teixeira at $120M/6yr for 29-34 seasons

The big advantage for sticking with Ramirez is that if he completely falls off the cliff or gets hurt in 2009, the Sox can cut bait and sign another FA the following season.
   30. Hubie Brooks Posted: July 02, 2008 at 08:55 AM (#2840111)
Manny @ Citi 2009. Make it happen Omar .
   31. Joe Bivens, Ditch Digger Posted: July 02, 2008 at 09:13 AM (#2840124)
Me likey Dunn. Or Burrell. Manny looked awful last night. He's looked awful for several periods of time this year. Very streaky. But, Dunn and Burrell are probably in the same boat in that regard, yes? No?
   32. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 02, 2008 at 09:14 AM (#2840126)
- Ramirez at $40M/2yr for age 37-38 seasons
- Burrell at $100M/6yr for age 32-37 seasons
- Dunn at $100M/6yr for age 29-34 seasons
- Teixeira at $120M/6yr for 29-34 seasons
The other issue is that the Red Sox can have (a) if they want it, but their ability to acquire (b)-(d) is limited by other teams' desires. If the Yankees decide that Teixeira is worth 7/160, that's not going to be a useful bidding war to enter into. And, given the shape of Burrell's and Dunn's careers and skills, I'd probably rather have Manny and play the market again later. I can see the case for Dunn over Manny, but I don't think it's a significant enough difference for me to see the case for an X% chance of signing Dunn over a 100% chance of re-upping Manny.

My guess is that the Red Sox will wait on Manny until they know what's up with Teixeira (and trade possibilities, maybe Bay), and then make a move in November / December based on what they find. I think the most likely outcome is that they pick up the 2009 option.
   33. AROM Posted: July 02, 2008 at 09:21 AM (#2840132)
Yankees will definitely be interested in Tex, since Giambi is up after the year. If Red Sox are interested in him too, then boy did he pick a good time to hit the free agent market.

For the Angels I hope they can get one of Dunn, Burrell, or Ramirez to sign and DH. Hopefully one of their teams will be scared of arbitration, Angels need a first round pick next year.
   34. JJ1986 Posted: July 02, 2008 at 09:22 AM (#2840133)
In 2009-10, the following will be available:

- Jason Bay (31 in 2010)
- Vlad Guerrero (34 in 2010)
- Magglio Ordonez (36 in 2010)


Matt Holliday too, and he'd be 30 in 2010.
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