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Sweet. Just get it done.
If the Dodgers offer Kemp, not to mention Kemp + a package, that would be tough to beat. Kemp + Coors field will equal Matt Holliday in about a year or 2.
I wonder if Jason Bay would be a better pickup, he might come cheaper. In the same park they are probably equal as hitters. Anaheim is not a great hitter's park and switching to the AL is not easy as you are facing tougher competition - you pretty much need to run a little MLE on National league guys.
As a guess I'd put Bay/Holliday at 380/500 in a neutral NL park and maybe 360/480 in the AL. It would be a help, but let's not look at Holliday's Rockie numbers and expect him to replace Vladimir's 2004-2007 production.
I assume the Angels would have to pay something like 80% of his contract. They might get him to waive the no trade clause by telling him he can choose to play everyday in Colorado, or suffer the Juan Rivera treatment in Anaheim.
He should suffer the Juan Rivera treatment in Anaheim anyway.
Well, they could try to lie to him, but Spilborghs would play LF if Holliday were traded. The last thing the Rockies need to do is bring in another OF to block Spilborghs and Seth Smith. No way they take Junior Sarge.
I suppose if the Angels eat enough of the contract, Sarge Jr. is moveable to another team. As a stopgap rental he wouldn't be the worst and he'd help Colorado's outfield defense.
Matt Holliday's career home-road splits:
Home: 363/427/656
Road: 277/340/450
Better than Dante Bichette's were, I suppose.
Yeah, Kendrick, Kotchman, Santana, K-Rod, Weaver and Arredondo all sure do suck!
The only major de-blooming happened to MacPherson (who got hurt, and is currently bashing the beejebus out of the ball at AAA), and Jeff Mathis, who has played good baseball this year. Meanwhile there's been good production from non-prospects like Joe Saunders and Mike Napoli and (last year, anyway) Reggie Willits.
Probably late 2009 or early 2010.
-- MWE
I'm glad Santana finally pulled everything together this year, because he sure looked like a mess last year. Howie Kendrick has a career .762 OPS (this year .746), a career 21/129 BB/K ratio (too bad he isn't a pitcher), and is already almost 25. Even Casey Kotchman, after a nice little season this year, has taken a step backward - a 106 OPS+ is pretty unspectacular for a first baseman, and we're still waiting for his power to show up in this, his 5th season in the bigs. Finally, Jered Weaver has been somewhat disappointing considering the amount of money he signed for and the hype he received coming out of college -- not to say he can't put it back together, because 2006 and 2007 were both good, but a lot was expected from him.
The top hitting prospects were Brandon Wood, Kotchman, MacPherson, Mathis, K. Morales and Kendrick. Besides Kotchman and Kendrick, all of these highly regarded prospects have been major disappointments. And I think most of us could agree that Kotchman, based on his minor league numbers, has not quite lived up to the hype.
In short, avoid trading for Angels prospects in keeper leagues.
Edit: Make that avoid trading for Angels' hitting prospects in keeper leagues.
Only his second season as a regular. He's also an incredible defensive player. Casey is valuable even if he just hits 12-15 homers per year. I'd like to see him be a bit more patient, but at least, unlike the rest of the Angel hitters, he's not swinging and missing on 3 balls in the dirt every other atbat.
Aybar? Pleasantly surprised. He's Neifiriffic as a hitter but once you adjust his MLE's for the leagues he was playing in that should not be unexpected. I was worried that he'd be an error prone inconsistent defender, but so far he's been outstanding. Last I checked he and Izturis were combined around +13 runs for just the first half. Joe Saunders and Jon Garland, especially, should be thankful.
Wood is disappointing. He hasn't progressed, his adjusted MLE is .215-.230 with 20 homer power the 4th year running. That's good for a 20 year old, not so much for a 23 year old.
Of course I'd love that -- I'm an A's fan.
I'll gladly take a player who will be worth 3-4 wins over Garret Anderson. (The guy who beat your lefty specialist last night).
Rockies' road numbers aren't indicative of the way those players perform when they go to another team. Get this through your thick skulls.
With Holliday on the block and a free agent in 2010, someone may have to post this at the beginning of every thread related to him for the next year and a half.
I don't doubt this is true, but aren't his numbers somewhat inflated by playing at Coors? What could we expect his park neutral numbers to be?
That's partially correct, but not completely. There are six guys that I could find that put up great raw numbers for the Rockies and then went to another team: Galarraga, Castilla, Bichette, Burks, Walker, and Hammonds (sorry if I missed one or two). Of the six, Galarraga and Burks continued to put up great raw numbers, Bichette and Walker were near the ends of their careers but didn't really collapse, and Hammonds and Castilla were major disappointments.
Which all suggests that there's a pretty good chance that Holliday would continue to put up great raw numbers somewhere else, and a pretty good chance that he'd be a big disappointment. I don't know how much I'd like the odds if I was forced to give up something really good for him.
Vinny Castilla had all of his good years in Colorado, but his 1999 in Coors was terrible suggesting he may have just lots it before he left the Rockies.
Holliday is a much better hitter than either of them too. Walker and Galarraga are players much closer to his hitting level.
Most players hit better at home than on the road in the first place. And beyond that, one third of the Rockies' road games take place in either Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, and whatever the Giants' stadium is called these days.
Holliday's OPS is 300 points higher in Colorado.
His BABIP is 70 points higher.
If the Rockies' road #s don't indicate what they'll do when they leave the Friendly Alpines, what #s should people look at?
They should look at his numbers adjusted for Coors Field park factors, preferably 3 year factors. Which suggest he is something like a .300/.370/.540 hitter, give or take.
That's a good start, about what the BB-Ref "normalization" gets you... obviously the guy can hit some, but his home/road splits are extremely, um, extreme.
Has anybody here seen/done a study on this "hangover" effect? The theory kind of makes sense, and it'd certainly be a part of the "ballpark" effect (i.e. visiting pitchers, unused to the thin air, tiring more easily & serving up fatter pitches). Do visiting batters go through mini-slumps when they leave Colorado?
But how do we know this is true? Some people have larger splits than others at Coors. Is there good reason to suspect that we should treat them all the same, or are we just guessing?
MGL has. I can't remember if he published it anywhere, but I have seen him mention that he uses it when doing his projections. It may be less important in recent years, since the humidor has reduced the whole Coors effect.
And I think the DBacks should get him. Our left field OPS this year is around .600, and given the park factor in chase is not far from coors, he should feel comfortable. If he produces just a .850 OPS he singlehandedly makes the offense league average, and with that pitching staff should be enough for a competent playoff team. If he OPS's a reasonable .950 with half his games in chase, even better
He's been slumping since coming off the DL, but otherwise Kendrick is right where I think he should be at his level of age and experience.
Kotchman is absolutely fine. If he ends this season at 106, that won't be so hot, but the season ain't over.
Wood has stagnated a bit.
Weaver is just fine.
McPherson has had injury problems.
So I'm not sure when these guys should have been traded. We could have traded Kotch and Aybar for Mike Sweeney, not sure what good that would be doing us right now. We could have traded Kotch for Teixeira, but up until the beginning of June they had the same production, Teixeira costs a ton more, and that extra money went toward Torii Hunter, who has been okay, certainly better than having Matthews out in center every day. So I'm not so convinced that the Angels would have gotten value for these guys.
Isn't that true with all ballparks? Some players will benefit more than the average projection, some less, depending on their skill sets and where they tend to hit the ball.
This is the only one I'd quibble with - yes, he's stagnated, but at a point where he looks to me like he'll never be a major league contributor. Considering he was once a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball in some circles, I'd say he could have fetched quite a bit, and now I'd be surprised if he ever has more than a "Vinny Castilla outside of Coors" career.
I think he's pretty underrated at this point, actually. He's durable, consistent, good defensively, his walk rate is going up for the third straight year, and he's 10 for 11 stealing bases. He's about as good a bet as there is among leftfielders at this point.
And I think the DBacks should get him.
I'd be very surprised if the Rockies traded their biggest star to their biggest rivals.
Is this true? Teixeira looks to be better in every way and one of the best 1B in the majors.
That's exactly it: Holliday had four full minor-league seasons where he hit about 10% above league, didn't blow anybody away. Then he came to the mountains, and his home/road splits went immediately into these crazy extremes. Holliday just seems born for Colorado; it's at least a good reason to suspect that he's not quite as good as even Joe C's projections.
And if you bother to look at his year to year splits AFTER he came to the mountains, you will see that he has progressively improved, compared to the early years, even if all you look at are his road splits. On the road stats:
2004: 240 .287 .367 .654
2005: 256 .313 .416 .729
2006: 280 .333 .485 .819
2007: 301 .374 .485 .860
2008: 309 .401 .472 .873
He might not be as good as Joe C's projections, he's also better than 277/340/450. I'm an A's fan too, and I don't want the Angels to get Holliday. I'd much rather have them continue to stick it out with GMJ and Garrett Anderson.
That "road" 2007-08 suggests a non-Rockie line of about 300/385/480, which sounds reasonable & is also darn good. He has some other pluses, too, as Nawrocki noted.
But he's probably not going to get much better, and with a normal aging pattern at a normal park, who knows how much his numbers will drop off?
That said, I'd rather see GMJ and Anderson out there for the Angels, too.
That road 2007-2008 ignores the other issues with only using road numbers:
i) You're depriving him of the home park benefit. Many hitters hit better at home, outside of park effects.
ii) While you're stripping him of the boost from playing in Coors, you're not stripping everyone else. All the other NL West hitters would almost certainly have worse, probably much worse, numbers if you took out their Coors numbers too. In comparison, Holliday's line now looks better.
Also, yes, with a normal ageing pattern at a normal park, his numbers would drop, based on the normal ageing pattern. There's still little reason to use road numbers from 3-4 years ago.
True. But having him face Guerrero and Hunter was pretty stupid.
I'm tired of all your excuses Mr. Josh Byrnes... If that's true that also means the Dodgers are unlikely to swing a deal as well.
Holiday Career OPS
Petco Park: .658 in 150 ABs.
Dodger Stadium: .662 in 124 ABs.
AT&T;Park: .764 in 158 ABs.
He has 1300 road ABs in his MLB career, those three parks account for 430 or almost exactly one third of them. Again these numbers are depressed by his age 24 & 25 years where his road OPS was around .690, but they show how a few tougher hitters parks in your division can help skew your road numbers, esp. when you play in a hitters park. I think in a neutral NL park he'd be a pretty good bet to OPS around .900.
Sure. I have no problem with the idea that he might have benefited more from playing in Coors, than if he played in LA or SF. But by using only road numbers, you are completely taking away the home park advantage from him. If you want to do this for Holliday, you should do this for every hitter in MLB, to produce a "fair" baseline to compare Holliday's road numbers against.
H: .363/.427/.656
A: .277/.340/.450
Atkins
H: .337/.396/.531
A: .268/.335/.428
Hawpe:
H: .279/.374/.502
A: .278/.371/.474
Helton:
H: .363/.461/.653
A: .294/.394/.494
Why is Holliday's H/A splits so extreme? Even by Colo standards? Is he just a homer? Will always due well at home? Or does teh altitude just apepal to him?
Anyway, #51 kind of makes the same point I've been trying to make, again: given that Holliday has extremely extreme home-road splits -- even compared to other Rockies, even post-"humidor" -- it seems like you'd want to factor that in to any evaluation of Holliday's real qualities as a hitter. He's probably better than 280/340/450, but it's awfully hard to say how much better. If he went to the Padres, that line wouldn't surprise me at all.
Wasn't he drafted in the 1st round?
I've found actual home/road splits to be just about worthless to projecting players, even Coors players.
If Rob Deer could play shortstop, sure.
A 23-year-old at AAA? That's disappointing?
I'll worry about it if he's still at AAA as a 25-year-old. But I do agree he's been very disappointing so far in AAA. About the only thing he has going for him is his youth.
Look at some of last winter's big trades: Cabrera, Santana, Haren. How have those worked out?
A's have a better record than the Diamondbacks
Marlins better than the Tigers
Twins better than the Mets
Are these flukes or good reality checks?
Angels trading for Tex would have been a disaster, not only are you giving up Kotch and spending money that would go to Hunter, the Angels were offering a pitcher in that deal, Santana or Saunders.
Is this true? Teixeira looks to be better in every way and one of the best 1B in the majors.
It wasn't a straight-up deal, and it was rumored. Yeah, Teix is teixerrific. But he costs a pretty penny, and there was no guarantee of re-signing him after last year.
Why would any team on earth trade for Gary Matthews when they could pry Tony Gwynn Jr away from Milwaukee for much less?
Gary Matthews Jr has at least hit at a major league level at times. Gwynn Jr has yet to show that he can hit at replacement level. Matthews' career OPS+ is what TG jr hits in his wet dreams.
Wow. I've never met a Gary Matthews Jr fan before. I don't think you appreciate how god awful Gary Matthews Jr was until age 27 and is this year. Gwynn is 25. There is no difference. Both blow at hitting.
Ah, you edited. But wake me up, when Tony Gwynn Jr actually hits at a major league level. He's not so young that a career high 67 OPS+ over three different years is something to make you think that he is a realistic major league hitter. It could happen - but the vast majority of players who suck as badly as he has so far end up with very short careers as part timers.
Tony Gwynn Jr. has wet dreams about baseball statistics?
He should be on this site.
Brandon Wood is not going to play SS in the major leagues.
1) How do you know that?; 2) he already has; 3) was Rob Deer much of a third baseman?
It's not just that though - it's the lousy ratios, apparent lack of ability to consistently make contact and identify pitches. He's not Rob Deer unless he suddenly doubles his walk rate, and Deer needed the walks to be a valuable hitter.
He is young enough to improve, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Even in Coors it isn't as if it is easy to hit 363/427/656, you've got to have quite a bit of talent to do that.
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