Personally, I think it's way, way, way too early for Cincy to write off their season and blow it all up. The Central is still very winnable...

Also, the line about the hippopotamus is great.

No no no no no no no to Vizquel. I fully believe that his offense would be worse than Lugo's.

A trade for the Giants’ Omar Vizquel might be something for the Sox to consider: Vizquel would offer steady and at times spectacular defense, and offense that would be no worse than Lugo’s

This has to be Robothal just throwing it out there. There's no way the Red Sox would even consider this when they have Lowrie and Cora.

Personally, I think it's way, way, way too early for Cincy to write off their season and blow it all up. The Central is still very winnable...

really? Anything is possible, but as the Chinese say, "It's later than you think". And their Pythag/3rd order wins while better than their actual record, is still under .500

13 free agents huh? Should be a heck of a draft in 2009. If the Reds blow it up now and trade Griffey and Dunn for young, near major league ready prospects, and then get a bunch of extra draft picks by letting a bunch of FA's go, they could turn it around pretty quickly, considering the young talent they already have on hand to build around.

Personally, I think it's way, way, way too early for Cincy to write off their season and blow it all up. The Central is still very winnable...

I don't. I don't think they have the pitching to jump back in. Milwaukee's getting nothing from their infield, their pitchers are scuffling and hurt, and they're still .500. The Reds should explore the market.

The situation is delicate — Young is a team player, but likely will want to remain at short. The Rangers were afraid to move Alfonso Soriano from second base to the outfield in 2005. Young, whose five-year, $80 million contract extension begins next season, will need to be handled firmly, but with respect.

Oof. That extension, the Adam Eaton trade, the A-Rod trade, and the Soriano trade make a strong case for Jon Daniels as runner up to Sabean in the Bad GM Sweepstakes in my eyes.

I think Daniels was at the wheel for the A-Rod trade - maybe he wasn't. In any event, it's by far the best of this series of moves, so it probably doesn't matter to my larger point.

You know, Daniels robbed Theo in the Gagne trade.

You know, Daniels robbed Theo in the Gagne trade.

That's not saying much. It doesn't matter what he got, just foisting Gagne off was a robbery.

Well, Gagne did help the Sox get them rings. Give him credit for bringing winning attitude to Boston.

The Gagne trade was a good concept, but obviously failed badly in execution.

Speaking of failing in execution, the defense of Cap'n Intangibles defense in this piece almost suggests that even Robothal knows his defense is awful and the media/coaches cover it against all evidence.

You know, Daniels robbed Theo in the Gagne trade.

Really? He was traded so close to the deadline it probably only saved Texas a million or two, and they got Kason Gabbard, so it's not like highway robbery.

I think Daniels was at the wheel for the A-Rod trade - maybe he wasn't. In any event, it's by far the best of this series of moves, so it probably doesn't matter to my larger point.

Nope, Hart was GM. Daniels did trade Soriano for Sledge, Wilkerson, and Armando Galaragga, so he does have a pretty terrible trade on his record. But, he can't be blamed for the A-Rod mess.

Nope, Hart was GM. Daniels did trade Soriano for Sledge, Wilkerson, and Armando Galaragga, so he does have a pretty terrible trade on his record. But, he can't be blamed for the A-Rod mess.

Yeah, but the horrible trade was Young/Eaton. The Soriano deal didn't work out, but it was hardly horrible -- Galarraga is doing all right this year and 6 years of him might be more valuable than one year of Sori at close to market value (that he's now with the Tigers is a different roster move), Sledge and Wilkerson were decent gambles, and Soriano was pretty bad during his time with the Rangers.

The Gagne trade isn't over, as part of that will be a Boston draft pick in June.

I doubt a 41 year-old SS is going to be significantly better defensively than a 32 y-o one.

Really? He was traded so close to the deadline it probably only saved Texas a million or two, and they got Kason Gabbard, so it's not like highway robbery.

They also got David Murphy.

The Cubs are the most obvious fit for center fielder Jim Edmonds

More than the shuffleboard court?

BPro gives them an 8% chance, and that doesn't reflect the fact that the Cubs and Brewers just sustained serious damage (of the self-inflicted variety, in the Cubs' case), or that Bruce is raking and ready for a callup.

If they're still underwater in a month, maybe they start thinking about it then.

They also got David Murphy.

Didn't they also get Engel Beltre?

Nope, Hart was GM. Daniels did trade Soriano for Sledge, Wilkerson, and Armando Galaragga, so he does have a pretty terrible trade on his record. But, he can't be blamed for the A-Rod mess.

He, Galarraga is currently the #1 starter on a team expected to contend.

I believe these are the Reds' 14 potential free agents:

Scott Hatteberg, Jerry Hairston, Paul Bako, David Ross, Javier Valentin, Ken Griffey, Corey Patterson, Adam Dunn, Todd Coffey, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Kent Mercker, Matt Belisle, and Josh Fogg.

How many of them are in the top 20% or 40% of their peer group and thus eligible for compensation? How many of them would you want to offer arbitration to?

Would you want to offer arbitration to Scott Hatteberg when the least you could offer him is $1,572,500? Corey Patterson or Jeremy Affeldt at $2,400,000?

offense that would be no worse than Lugo’s ...

Ouch.

Would you want to offer arbitration to Scott Hatteberg when the least you could offer him is $1,572,500? Corey Patterson or Jeremy Affeldt at $2,400,000?

The maximum salary cut isn't applicable when a major league free agent accepts arbitration. From the CBA (where it lays out rights of compensation to former team of a major league free agent):

If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed
player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration
proceeding under Article VI; provided, however, that the
rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI
shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange
figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration
figures under Article VI.

The thing is, as #4 points out, for the Reds it wouldn't be rebuilding so much as reloading. If they are willing to blow it up now, trade vets for young players and focus on draft picks, they'd be a wrecking crew in that division by 2010.

If they are willing to blow it up now, trade vets for young players and focus on draft picks, they'd be a wrecking crew in that division by 2010.

How do you figure that? The Brewers have at least as much young talent as Cincinnati and Chicago has established players and a lot of money. I don't think being a wrecking crew in any division is as simple as a "focus on draft picks".

Twins catcher Joe Mauer has no home runs in 119 at-bats. “He’s playing like Wade Boggs, he’s that style hitter,” one scout says. “I don’t think Gardy (Ron Gardenhire) will say something. But privately, I think he wants him to start hitting the ball out of the park.”

Yea it really sucks when you have a catcher who only has a 139 OPS+, esp. when he's such a noted home run hitter.

Twins catcher Joe Mauer has no home runs in 119 at-bats. “He’s playing like Wade Boggs, he’s that style hitter,” one scout says. “I don’t think Gardy (Ron Gardenhire) will say something. But privately, I think he wants him to start hitting the ball out of the park.”

Yea it really sucks when you have a catcher who only has a 139 OPS+, esp. when he's such a noted home run hitter.

I'm right there with you. For some reason criticizing Mauer's offense is the local pastime in the local sporting press. Probably because of his size, and because he's neither a free-swinging speedster, nor free-swinging home run hitter, as would befit Garenhire's offensive paradigm. Mauer's the only one in the lineup with any plate discipline, and he's a prodigy. There's not a single thing I'd change about his entire game.

There's not a single thing I'd change about his entire game.

geez... you're living up to your handle with this kind of reverence.

And he's boning Chelsea Cooley. His game knows no end.

--Derek Jeter, who missed five games with a strained left quadriceps in early April, again ranks near the bottom of AL shortstops in range factor and zone rating. Jeter, however, says that he improved his explosiveness and first-step quickness by altering his offseason training regimen, and bench coach Rob Thomson says he notices a difference. “I say to (third base coach) Bobby Meacham every day, it’s unbelievable how much better he’s moving than last year,” Thomson says. ...

Also, I'm shocked this hasn't been discussed further here yet.

“I say to (third base coach) Bobby Meacham every day, it’s unbelievable how much better he’s moving than last year,” Thomson says.

So, given that any discussion that he was anything less than spectacular before was quickly denounced, what is their rating of his defense now? Godlike? Ozzie Smithesque?

And he's boning Chelsea Cooley. His game knows no end.

Chicks dig the long ball, but they are also quite fond of the 11-pitch AB that ends in a seeing-eye single through the left side.

Thank you Dan Szymborski for straightening me out on the minimum a team can offer their own free agents.

My two points still stand though: 1) If arbitration is offered and refused, most of these guys are not going to bring back compensatory draft picks, and 2) If arbitration is offered and accepted, how many of them do you want around at what you're likely to have to pay?

I believe these are the Reds' 14 potential free agents:

Scott Hatteberg, Jerry Hairston, Paul Bako, David Ross, Javier Valentin, Ken Griffey, Corey Patterson, Adam Dunn, Todd Coffey, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Kent Mercker, Matt Belisle, and Josh Fogg.

I don't think Belisle is a potential free agent. This is only his fifth calendar year in the majors and Cot's has him with about 3 years service time.

Also, I'm shocked this hasn't been discussed further here yet.

Well, on one hand, it's true, he looks better than he did last year, when his knee was shot. On the other hand, his stats still suck. He is middle of the pack in RZR, so I'm inclined to believe that my eyes aren't lying, that he's playing better defense than last year, but since he's 34 there is no bounce back left in his legs to get back to the 04-06 level.

"How many of them are in the top 20% or 40% of their peer group and thus eligible for compensation? How many of them would you want to offer arbitration to? "

Adam Dunn is the only likely answer to both of those questions.

JJ1986: I'm sorry. You're right. Belisle was arb eligible last year and signed for near the bid/ask midpoint before his hearing.

DL from MN: For hitters, yeah, Dunn, and Griffey may be a B Type, but both may be gone before then. Elias' pitcher rankings make less sense to me and I can't eyeball a list and make any kind of accurate predictions about where the 40th percentile line will be. Coffey, maybe, but he'll be relatively inexpensive either way and worth keeping. As for the rest of them, they'll probably be able to get better values off the scrap heap over the winter if they don't have internal options. [Edit: Coffey's arb eligible, not FA, too.]

"How many of them are in the top 20% or 40% of their peer group and thus eligible for compensation? How many of them would you want to offer arbitration to? "

Adam Dunn is the only likely answer to both of those questions.

Griffey was a Type A at the end of last year. If he rebounds he should still be at least a B. Weathers had 33 saves last year and I believe was also an A, though with Cordero now the closer he'll probably fall to the B classification.

I don't think they have the pitching to jump back in. Milwaukee's getting nothing from their infield, their pitchers are scuffling and hurt, and they're still .500. The Reds should explore the market.

Harang is a solid 1 and there's some real upside with the young starters, as Volquez is demonstrating. Arroyo will rebound, and if Belisle continues to falter Homer Bailey is ready to take his spot. If the big bats heat up, they can still catch the field in the Central.

Also, I'm shocked this hasn't been discussed further here yet.

Jeter's defensive stats being poor while "looking good" hasn't changed in a dozen years. Nothing to discuss.

The Cubs' imminent signing of Jim Edmonds will help prevent them from running away with it.

A further apology/explanation: I think Rosenthal's count of Reds' potential free agents included arb eligible players who could be refused free agency and become free agents. Obviously, there's no compensation involved in those cases. There's no other way I can make the math work out.

A further apology/explanation: I think Rosenthal's count of Reds' potential free agents included arb eligible players who could be refused free agency and become free agents. Obviously, there's no compensation involved in those cases. There's no other way I can make the math work out.

Are there 12? He could be counting Mike Stanton and Juan Castro, who were both released, but would have been free agents at the end of the season.

Neifi Perez will probably be a free agent after playing for the Reds this year.

(who else can they get to replace Keppinger?!?)

Neifi Perez will probably be a free agent after playing for the Reds this year.

(who else can they get to replace Keppinger?!?)

Paul Janish!!

Jeter's defensive stats being poor while "looking good" hasn't changed in a dozen years. Nothing to discuss.

Jeter hasn't looked good for a long time. To my eyeballs, he's covering more ground this year than last though.