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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, December 07, 2006
This Year’s Picks or “How the Mets Let Their First Good Catching Prospect Since John Stearns Slip Away for $50K”
9:03 a.m.: Bombshell time! After Goleski and Joakim Soria go 1-2, the Cubs and Tim Wilken drop the biggest name in the Rule 5 in years, selecting Josh Hamilton off the Devil Rays’ roster. Hamilton, of course, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft but has battled injuries and drug problems since 2001, his only full season in the minors.
Van Lingle Mungo Jerry
Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:35 AM | 124 comment(s)
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Do they have to pay themselves and then pay themselves again if they don't keep him? This is a negotiation I think Littlefield can win!
I don't see a lot good here after Goleski. What about the minor league portion?
1) He's actually from the Braves' organization, from what I can tell.
2) Word is that he was picked so that he could be sold to another team, just like Tampa and Oakland on Goleski.
The above is from the link.
Why the hell wouldn't the Pirates be interested in taking a rule 5 flyer? Too much work? They'd rather give than receive?
Whenever the Pirates do something that doesn't make sense, just remember that Dave Littlefield doesn't know what the hell he's doing, and that'll explain it.
This is actually the third time that they've sold their Rule 5 pick under him, following Matt Roney and Luis Ugueto.
Kudos to the Nationals on the Flores pick. I'm betting he sticks as their backup this year.
I'm guessing the Phils are going to use one of these Rule 5 guys as a 3rd-string catcher, keeping Chris Coste on the roster as a super-utility guy and the primary backup catcher. Beats paying Rod Barajas an arm and a leg to do the same job. The pitcher they selected, Jim Ed Warden, looks interesting - lots of strikeouts, lots of wild pitches. I'm assuming he throws a nasty splitter. Anyone know anything about him?
Sean White was originally a Pirates draft product, was he not?
No, 8th round pick by the Braves in '03.
How utility IFs like Ramon Martinez, Neifi Perez, and the like always seem to get guaranteed (and in many cases, multi-year) contracts -- while guys like Phelps, Munson -- and I'd throw others like Jason Grabowksi and Matt LeCroy (who should be a 3rd/emergency catcher, not a primary backup) always seem to be struggling to get even a legit shot at the big league roster is completely beyond me.
Every year - there are 2-3-4-5 games where a team is fearful of either PH or PR for a catcher because there's no one else to catch on the active roster. I think it's worth an extra win a year if you can afford to PR for a catcher in a tie/1 run game in the 9th/extra innings... You could all but ensure that the Bakos, Blanco, and Fasanos of the world never have another meaningful at-bat again.
You certainly don't want more than 10-15 innings behind the plate a year out of many of these guys (Munson maybe aside, who seemed to handle a returns to the ToI pretty well) -- but that's a valuable bit of flexibility to me.
If nothing else -- I don't think there's a team in baseball that couldn't use a bat like Phelps off the bench and as a backup 1B.
Hell - in the lefty-centric NL Central (though -- maybe not as lefty centric as last year) and given their issues with LHP, the Cubs could most definitely gotten good mileage from Phelps. If they're just going to sell Josh Hamilton rather than carry him as a 4th/5th OF -- I'd have rather seen them scoop up Phelps.
Bonus karma point for answering the same question in 2 different threads ;-)
I'm not sure why, but somehow I always through White was another from the seemingly endless stream of Pirates LHP draftee flameouts, ala Bobby Bradley, etc...
I don't know if it's a good idea to have three catchers on the roster with a total of roughly .8 years of major-league experience (Donachie would be a 23-year-old rookie; Budde a 28-year-old rookie). The Inquirer suggested yesterday that the Phils were going to hire Ben Davis as a veteran backup.
Nice gamble, Omar. Because God knows we need Victor #### Zambrano clogging up our 40 man roster.
I swear other front offices must feel like they're playing one of those video game where the Warehouse is being run on screwy artificial intelligence. You know...where the game announces a team has made a move or a trade and your initial reaction is "WTF? This game has terrible AI." Or how in Madden a computer team drafts 3 kickers. Or when the AI is programmed to reject trades because of some bizarre player rating system and you're thinking, "It's impossible to trade with this team. I don't want their stupid players anyways. No wonder why this team sucks." I'm convincing myself this is what goes on in the minds of opposing GM's when they think of the O's. I mean seriously..why the hell waste time and effort signing a guy at the outset of minor league free agency if you're going to risk losing him in a month?
Why sign Paul Bako to a major league contract and leave Phelps and JR House exposed? Why trade for Freddie Bynum when you've got plenty of crappy utility players.
Or Julio Zuleta. But they'd probably have him on a 3/$9M contract or something, so never mind.
21 HRs for Flores at age 21 in the FSL is pretty impressive. It's just one year, but that's a solid pickup by Bowden if he gives him a shot.
Such inconsistency makes it unlikely a club would gamble on [Goleski] to stick at the big-league level and he's too old (age 25 by opening day 2007) to select and then try and work out a deal to stash him away in the farm system.
His 2005 season does look strange, though.
Or Julio Zuleta. But they'd probably have him on a 3/$9M contract or something, so never mind.
...and IIRC, Zuleta actually did some catching early in his minor league career before shifting to 3B then 1B.
Well...that clears up the 2007 Yankee Yearbook cover problem!
21 years old. Pitched 11 2/3 innings in Fort Wayne in 2006. Pitched 37 innings in 39 games in Mexico in 2006. Struck out 41 in 48.2 innings.
And he'll take the pitching jobs that Americans don't want.
Soria is an interesting pitcher, but I don't think anyone can blame the Pads for not protecting him.
Why sign Paul Bako to a major league contract
This merits being asked more than once.
the Cubs could most definitely gotten good mileage from Phelps
Weak glove. He can stand there near first, but you want him as a PH/DH if at all possible. However, like you, I like having guys like this around as an emergency catchers.
Warden: not much. His stats were pretty sick this year, but I think that was in part because of a low BABIP.
Speaking of sick stats - check out how Oakland pick Jay Marshall did versus lefties in the Carolina League: .096/.113/.115 - 62 GB, 3 FB. Jeebus. Righties hit him hard, though - he's a sidearmer (and somewhat new to his armslot, IIRC).
I don't have any sense of the Mets plans at catcher. The best in the organization under 30 now is probably Drew Butera.
I still don't know why Victor Diaz wasn't converted long ago... maybe the guy they got for him is so overwhelming, they don't need another COTF...
"I have a fetish for C prospects."
Someday, when Baseball America starts running personals, this will become a cliche.
Who-akeem?
Hua-keem?
Well, remember last July they signed Tony Pena's son, Francisco, out of the Dominican Republic, for $750,000. He was highly touted, and is certainly now the best catching prospect in their system. He's also 17 and has to be considered a good 4-5 years away, if he ever makes it.
And he'll take the pitching jobs that Americans don't want.
Is that another cheap shot at the Orioles or Pirates?
That's nasty, but I don't see any way for the A's to carry him with their logjam in the bullpen.
Right. I guess my thinking here is, Paul Lo Duca is 34, 35, and Ramon Castro is the only plan B. Remember who our backup catchers were going to be last October if Castro didn't come back?
Flores didn't play until 2004, but was signed 3/02
This is the 5th rule 5 since he was drafted- is it possible that someone in the Mets org didn't realize that he had to be protected?
And the Giants five. How does that happen?
Hendry really has a knack for pissing me off lately.
Exactly!!! Only made worse that it's been nullified by losing him in the draft!
The Mets could have hired me for 100 bucks and a couple of tickets to games vs. the Pirates to re-check their 40 man protection list and organization list before submitting it to the Rule 5 draft. I would have told them that Flores needed to be protected.
First Beato, now Flores. I'm shaking my head.
Nats: 8
Cubs: 5
Giants: 5
Twins: 4
D-Rays: 3
Orioles: 3
Off with Omar's head.
I wonder who the best Rule 5 pick by organization would be.
I think the Royals is Andy Sisco.
Not a Rule 5 situation, but somewhat roughly parallel in a not so equivalent way, I guess. ;-)
Sam, he wasn't Rule V second time around? Could've sworn he was when Mets lost him after '83...
Tom Seaver lost to the Rule 5 draft at the age of 38 in 1983? Um, no.
That was the short-lived, never-lamented (don't even know the rule or if it had a rule) free agent compensation pool draft. Teams that had lost FAs got compensation by drafting unprotected players off the active rosters of other teams -- not minor league prospects (though some of those may have been eligible, too; I don't recall). It was somewhat similar, in that it was a draft and the Mets left Seaver unprotected. But Rule 5? Nope.
Catchers: I forgot Kelly Stinnett (a Met!) and the last catcher to stick, Alberto Castillo, though he'd spent the prior few years in and out of the bigs anyway, so that's kind of away from the intent of the question.
Got it. Checked the Baseball-Ref page after posting it- and not only are you right, but you sponsor the page!
I'd guess upwards of 90%.
Henry Owens.
Sure. He'd be unlikely to be picked, though, since a team that wanted him could've just claimed him when he was put on waivers.
I'd guess upwards of 90%.
You think? I don't. The Nationals are obviously writing off 2007 in terms of competing. What do they have to lose in just holding on to Flores as the bullpen catcher, giving him a handful of starts or innings? And they can certainly tell the Mets, "Hey, we'd like to send him down to AA, but you of course can force us to keep him in the majors. We're more than prepared to do that. Tell you what. We'll give you Jimmy Schlubworth, non-prospect, in exchange for you not exercising your right to buy Flores back if we send him down. If you say no, we'll just keep him with us all year as our 25th man. So, we'll lose 103 instead of 101. No skin off our nose."
Flores is gone, I think.
Canada's is Adam Stern.
That's actually one of the better justifications I've heard for a Rule 5 pick.
Justin Huber.
Todd Hundley.
Mackey Sasser.
"I’m telling you George, all my baseball people kept telling me Josh Phelps, Josh Phelps, Josh Phelps, Josh Phelps…."
Todd Hundley.
Mackey Sasser.
...
Brook Fordyce. Barry Lyons. John Gibbons.
You forgot Ed Hearn. Okay, so change the snarky lead to "The Guy With A Good Chance To Be Their Best Home-Grown Catcher Since John Stearns" since other than Todd Hundley, none of the others proved to be worth much in the majors.
As for Mets Rule 5 success stories, does Eric "I Gave Up Meat" Valent count?
I would certainly normatively agree with you - I think many more teams should do this, but for whatever reason, they don't. Not a lot of rule 5 picks stick, and even fewer of them are position guys. I think the Nationals should certainly give Flores the backup spot, but I also think some team like the Pirates or the Devil Rays should have given Colter Bean a real shot by now, or someone should have taken Pedro Strop and stuck him in the bullpen. It seems like bad teams should regularly be using the Rule 5 draft to fill up the back ends of their rosters with these guys, in a throw it against the wall, and see if anything sticks, type game.
It just doesn't seem to happen that often. That's why I wouldn't bet on Flores being gone - reasonably interesting young players like him are available with regularity - the Dan Ugglas who get roster spots are the exceptions.
Most aren't real prospects either. It's not usual for a real prospect, someone as young as Flores (signed originally before he was 18), to go in the draft.
I haven't looked at the protect list - but I bet I could come up with at least 5 names (not including Zambrano) who I would have dropped to protect Flores.
Seriously, this is such a significant gaffe.
The Phils have traded away the Rule 5 catcher they picked up from KC, Donachie, to the Orioles for the Rule 5 pick they made, Alfredo Simon. Simon hasn't pitched well since he was traded away from the Phils to the Giants a few years back and actually was just signed by the Rangers a few weeks back. The Rangers had shut him down in winter league ball in the Dominican either because he was hurt or because he was throwing 98MPH and were trying to hide him.
It probably will amount to nothing, but for today it's the most foreign intrigue you can have without radiation poisoning.
He's had a tough go of it (yes self-inflicted, but I'd like to see him succeed.
***
I think Flores is gone - judging by BA Handbooks, he's one of the top rated prospects to be made available in recent memory, regardless of age or position. As a gamble, I get it - catchers don't get picked and stick often and he might need those option years later - but this may have backfired.
***
The minor league phase pool was really drained by the CBA change - there are clubs that only left a dozen or so unprotected and they weren't the best talent. Plus, most of those guys were way too old for Rookie league ball.
I can understand the gamble. Most teams aren't going to let a guy in A-ball be the backup catcher because he has to "handle the staff". I'm pretty sure Omar knew there was a good chance that he'd get picked up. Maybe he's playing a game a chicken with whomever picks him up.
Van Lingle has it exactly right: Flores won't be the Nats' back-up catcher. He'll be their third catcher. It's about a wasted roster spot, not being willing to have a bad second-string catcher. For a team like the Nats, a wasted roster spot in 2007 is a small price to pay for a catching prospect like Flores. They've got their eyes on the long-term. Omar should have realized there might (probably would) be a team out there in just that position.
Blame expanding bullpens. With 12-man pens, you've got 13 position spots. In the AL (where these guys can DH some), you've only got 4 bench spots. One of those has to go to your #2 C, one has to go to a backup MI (and most teams will insist that be a guy who can play SS), and one has to go to a backup OF (and most teams will insist that be a guy who can play CF). That leaves one spot and most teams rightly prefer that go to a guy who can play the corner OF and 1B positions (and preferably 3B). This is especially true if your starting DH is an Ortiz, Thomas, Hafner type who is useless in the field. With the possible exception of Grabowski, none of these guys are good fits.
In the NL, you do get 5 position player bench spots, but no DH and, again with the possible exception of Graboswki, there's no place to play these guys.
Back in the day of 10-man pitching staffs, this kind of player would have gotten MLB jobs. Now those roster spots go to LOOGYs and 60-IP relievers.
Everyone on the DL has to be activated in the off-season.
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