$20 mil for Burnett? Seriously?

The Yankees absolutely love Burnett, who finished the 2008 campaign with an 18-10 record in 35 games, while accruing 221 1/3 innings of work and a league leading 231 strikeouts.

Wow! This, this I like. CC Sabathia is so much better than AJ Burnett that you'd want to cry. And the Yankees are going after Burnett. Unless it's both, this is a really big mistake. Or the report could be wrong.

But let's not think about that, that's no fun. Here's a couple comparisons of their last four seasons (endpoints picked specifically to make Burnett look good). By VORP, then by IP/ERA+

76.2, 65.2, 46.5, 32.8 - Sabathia (WAvg 62.6)
35.1, 37.5, 25.3, 30.5 - Burnett (WAvg 33.4)

197 IP, 104 ERA+ vs. 209 IP, 115 ERA+
193 IP, 140 ERA+ vs. 136 IP, 115 ERA+
241 IP, 143 ERA+ vs. 166 IP, 119 ERA+
253 IP, 162 ERA+ vs. 221 IP, 106 ERA+

Burnett gave up 17 UER in 2004, compared to Sabathia's three, to account for the apparent contradiction between VORP and IP/ERA+ there.

Sure, Sabathia will cost more, but you're the freaking Yankees.

This is another one of the 'can't miss' Yankee moves, like Jeff Weaver, Javier Vasquez, and, of course, the Pavano/Wright signings.

At least it is more efficient; with Burnett they can waste 20 million on one guy rather than spreading it between two guys. It's also easier on the medical personnel to watch one guy rehab.

I would love to see the Sox break the bank for Sabathia, but that would be way out of character for Theo. So I'm reduced to hoping that the Yankees pass on him, too.

MC,

What's gotten into you? You're like a manic posting machine! As I understand it, MC, they're going for both of them.

I was thinking about Burnett's (and others') situation, in that, I might be very tempted to take $50 mil guaruanteed instead of waiting to see what the collapsing world economy does to baseball salaries.

Wow! This, this I like. CC Sabathia is so much better than AJ Burnett that you'd want to cry. And the Yankees are going after Burnett. Unless it's both, this is a really big mistake. Or the report could be wrong.

It's a mistake even if they sign CC. If y ou're willing to spend that much on Burnett, you may as well go after Tex, since at that point -- with CC -- he'd fill a much bigger need and is a much more valuable player.

Alas, I have seen no indication the Yankees are interested in him, which means their offense is probably going to suck and they'll miss the playoffs again. Yay.

As I understand it, MC, they're going for both of them.

And Teixeira??

Wow. Well, that would be the right choice. I don't think paying big money for Burnett is a good idea (dude has never broke 122 ERA+ in a season), but if he's the #3 free agent behind CC and Tex, it's not like they can really go wrong.

5 GS, 3 - 1, 38.1 IP, 1.64 ERA 43 K's, 6 BB's.

What are those? Those are AJ Burnett's numbers against the Yankees in 2008.

Get it now?

The stories I've read say CC + 1 of Lowe/Burnett/???

Most baseball people believe he could get as much as $19 - $21 million per season if he goes free agent.

Holy freaking ####! Prior to this moment, has anyone heard anything about Burnett being in line for anything approaching this? Everything I've read has been guestimating at somewhere around $15M per season.

I would love to see the Sox break the bank for Sabathia, but that would be way out of character for Theo. So I'm reduced to hoping that the Yankees pass on him, too.

The Sox will get Sabathia. Mark that down.

The Sox will get Sabathia. Mark that down.

What do you see the deal being?

There have been a couple rumors in Milwaukee of deals that could be thrown CC's way. The latest I have heard is 5/$140M. No sense of how much of that is guaranteed or in incentives. The great thing for CC in that deal is that he will only be 32 in the last year of that deal, he could still get another 3-4 year deal after that.

The Sox will get Sabathia. Mark that down.

Dig it.

Man, I hope that's some inside info you got that. Sabathia is made of win.

Especially since I will never trust Beckett.

The Sox will get Sabathia. Mark that down.

Is this as sure of a thing as Clemens to the Red Sox?

Why would the Yankees not just outbid everyone for Teixeira and Sabathia? What're they saving their money for in future off-seasons? Heck, why not Burnett or Lowe too?

The Red Sox won't sign Sabathia. Mark that down. I'd love for it to happen, but it's not gonna.

Why would the Yankees not just outbid everyone for Teixeira and Sabathia? What're they saving their money for in future off-seasons? Heck, why not Burnett or Lowe too?

I'd love to see the Yankees outbid every team for those four. With ARod and Jeter, that would give them a payroll for six players more than all but one or two other teams' 40 man rosters. And I would still expect them to not win the series. That would leave them with a very good but not necessarily great first baseman, a second baseman who is coming off a bad season, a declining shortstop, a great third baseman, questions throughout the outfield, and a question at catcher - oh, and questions in the bullpen. And outside of Sabathia, not necessarily a great rotation.

But of course, this won't happen. The Yankees have the most money this offseason, but other teams have money to spend also - including the Mets.

the Yanks should have learned how free agency tends to work by now.
a correct strategy is imo very simple

1) Identify best guy on market
2) Sign him
3) Still have money? If yes goto 1, if no goto 4
4) Stop signing free agents

the Yanks should have learned how free agency tends to work by now.
a correct strategy is imo very simple

1) Identify best guy on market
2) Sign him
3) Still have money? If yes goto 1, if no goto 4
4) Stop signing free agents

The problem is, not even the Yankees have infinite money. I'd love for them to follow that strategy - and in fact, they did for a stretch in the early part of this millenium. And it left them shy about signing players in future years who really would have helped them.

Well, don't forget 4--my point being that you want to make the best guy on the market, regardless of perceived "need", your #1 target every year. If that's only one or two guys, all the better. My strategy gets them Beltran, for example....a perceived "need" for pitching got them crap instead.....

Man, I hope that's some inside info you got that. Sabathia is made of win.

Well, whatever he is made of, he's made of a hell of a lot of it...

I really think they should go after Lowe. The guy has never been hurt. He can throw innings. That is a definite skill.

what is the Sox payroll going into 2009? How much will they have to spend on free agents?

The idea of groundball pitchers plus Derek Jeter makes me nervous, although it doesn't seem to have impaired Wang's effectiveness. Also, Lowe is substantially old. Maybe he can keep going til age 40...or maybe he can't.

Would Lowe take a high-AAV short-term deal, like the one Pettitte signed with the Yankees for 2007-08? Ideally, you'd stick him in a home run hitters' park with good infielders...the White Sox (if they keep Crede)?

what is the Sox payroll going into 2009? How much will they have to spend on free agents?

Just eyeballing it: They are 10m under their 07 salary. They'll save about 10m having Bay over Manny. Shilling will be off the books, who I think was at 13m. Tek at 9m, if they don't resin him. Couple of contracs creeping up of course. Should balance out with some minor contracts like Cora, the remainder of the Byrd and Kotsay deals...

They probably have 40-50m annually to play with if they want to.

1) Identify best guy on market
2) Sign him
3) Still have money? If yes goto 1, if no goto 4
4) Stop signing free agents

The problem is, not even the Yankees have infinite money. I'd love for them to follow that strategy - and in fact, they did for a stretch in the early part of this millenium. And it left them shy about signing players in future years who really would have helped them.

It's not about money - in the context of MLB, a $200M+ payroll is effectively infinite - but about the time. They can't devote all their resources to signing just one player (say, CC Sabathia) because of the risk that Anaheim offers 8/180 to Teixeira and snags him before the Yankees can become players in that market. If the Yankees mean to sign two top pitchers and one top hitter, they'll be split between a variety of negotiations while other teams are focusing on just one, and they'll have to win three auctions while other teams are trying to win just one.

Now I expect the Yankees to sign one of Sabathia or Teixeira, but while I assume they'll go after both, I doubt they'll get both.

A $200M payroll most definitely is not infinite, Matt Clement of Alexandria. You've got nine starting position players, five starting pitchers, and about three relievers who can command serious cash--that's an average of under $12M a slot before considering the bench and the back of the bullpen. $12M barely buys you José Guillén these days. :) Now, obviously, the Yankees have a number of cheap pre-FA players whom they can underpay, leaving more payroll room available for veterans. But there are certainly *some* constraints on what they can offer--they can't go handing out $20-$25M/yr contracts to half the league.

The yanks should be able to go to $250 million (pulls number out of arse) with the new stadium though. They've got a lot of money to spend. MC's point is right though, that it's more about time and resources for why they will have trouble landing multiple free agents.

40-50 million if they bump up their salary 10 million from 07 levels? Youks & Lester should be getting pretty big raises.

Now, obviously, the Yankees have a number of cheap pre-FA players whom they can underpay, leaving more payroll room available for veterans. But there are certainly *some* constraints on what they can offer--they can't go handing out $20-$25M/yr contracts to half the league.

Right, but the Yankees have more than a couple open slots every offseason, and rarely are there more than a couple of $20M talents on the market in one offseason. I said "effectively" - the Yankees payroll is not going to prevent them from signing Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett this year, and that would leave them will a more than full roster.

Yes, not theoretically infinite, but only quite occasionally will the Yankees be constrained by payroll in going after the best players on the market, and so I don't think it's the main thing holding them back.