#2 and #4 are arguments in favor of baseball in China. #1 and #3 are counter arguments. Not surprisingly, I'm with Bud on this one.

The only Chinese Bud needs to hear is "ch-ching!"

Ain't globalization under the guise of goodwill grand!

"I think there's a world market for about five computers." -- Thomas Watson, 1943.

"Nobody will ever need more than 640K RAM." -- Bill Gates, 1981

"Where the #### did all these Indians come from?" -- Gen. Custer, 1876.

"Groups with guitars are on their way out." -Dick Rowe, Decca A&R man, turning down the Beatles

"Where the #### did all these Indians come from?" -- Gen. Custer, 1876.

Pretty sure he didn't actually say that.....

"There's a good vibe all up in here - I won't need my bulletproof helmet tonight." - Abe Lincoln, 1865

I checked the Chinese Xinhua news agency again today. Nothing about MLB there, not even a peep. See for yourself: Xinhua Tiyu

Number 1 is a quote for Bud as well, considering that American soccer has gone from in the last 20 years from nowhere to a top 20 team, the professional league has gone from not existing to 17,000 a game - and both of these are impressive considering a huge slice of the soccer loving population doesn't care about either (i.e. expats and Mexicans) and more kids play soccer than any other sport.

Even if you derisively said only 10% of Americans will ever care about soccer, that's 30 million people. If 10% of China cared about baseball, it's 100 million people, or about the number of people that claim to being a baseball fan in America.

So Bud's got a good point.

Soccer is the sport of the future. Maybe not in the US market, though it likely will continue to grow at a decent rate. But on the global scale, it's going to absolutely dominate.

And I do think that means that as it gets easier and easier for people to get access to European leagues, they'll become more interested in the domestic product, too.

I would be shocked if the MLS ever got anywhere close to as big as the main 3 leagues, but it's not crazy to think that it could build a following that surpasses the rest. There are now a lot of people in this country who grew up playing soccer.

"I drank what?" -- Socrates, 399 B.C.

"I'm going to have the world's biggest porn collection" -- The late great J. J. Smuggo Mohl (got married one year after quote...)

Soccer is the sport of the future. Maybe not in the US market, though it likely will continue to grow at a decent rate. But on the global scale, it's going to absolutely dominate.

I look forward to a future full of faked injuries, lit flares thrown at players, massive riots, street fights between rival fan groups, and stabbings in the stands.

"Nobody will ever need more than 640K RAM." -- Bill Gates, 1981

Define "need".

You can email and word process and play solitaire to your heart's content on 640 k ram and I'd guess that covers 85% of computer time. Not sure how well web surfing and IMing work with 640 k ram but I'd guess you don't really need substantially more than that. Granted, video games are right out but do we really "need" those?

There are some folks -- mainly working on things like trying to find better ways to blow up the world, track how we're destroying the environment, seeing galaxies billions of miles away, finding the next incomprehensible financial product to destroy our economy or genetically modifying sheep so they grow chicken breasts -- who "need" a couple gigs of ram, but not many.

"They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist--" Last words of Union Army general John Sedgwick, Battle of Spotsylvania Court House, 1864

"My belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators." -- Dick Cheney, March 16, 2003

I look forward to a future full of faked injuries, lit flares thrown at players, massive riots, street fights between rival fan groups, and stabbings in the stands.

You don't really know anything about soccer do you?

You don't really know anything about soccer do you?

It was basically just a silly comment anyway and not meant to actually mean much, but are you denying that those things happen? International soccer has a pretty ugly history of horrible fan violence.

You could just as easily say "I look forward to a future full of steroid abuses, labor disputes that prevent the World Series, segregation of players based on race, and teams run by George Steinbrenner."

Fan violence certainly has been a problem, especially in the 80s, and it remains one today to some extent. But the idea of the soccer hooligan has been tremendously overstated. The overwhelming majority of matches happen without conflict or trouble.

It's also important to remember that there are literally hundreds of matches taking place around the world at any given time - most of them attended by local fans who strongly support their teams. This is on a scale that absolutely dwarfs baseball or any US sport. You hear about the bad things but the fact that 99.9% of these happen without incident is not reported.

The other factor is that the amazing atmosphere of football matches is the flip side of the violent history. Passions run high, supporters sing songs, cheer wildly for 90 consecutive minutes, etc. That stuff is seriously impressive.

I look forward to a future full of faked injuries, lit flares thrown at players, massive riots, street fights between rival fan groups, and stabbings in the stands.

You don't really know anything about soccer do you?

The faked injuries are true. I get so sick of guys falling over on grass 4 inches thick and acting as if their bunjee cord just snapped and dropped them in a pile of glass and discarded computer components. Other than that, I find soccer very watchable. I even watched a half of the u-23 team in Olympic qualifying. The American soccer team sure seems more skilled than they were 15 years ago.

Hey, I'm not denying any of the good things involved with soccer. I don't personally find the game interesting but I'm sure all that stuff is true. Flynn was just overreacting to mere snark.

Number 1 is a quote for Bud as well, considering that American soccer has gone from in the last 20 years from nowhere to a top 20 team, the professional league has gone from not existing to 17,000 a game - and both of these are impressive considering a huge slice of the soccer loving population doesn't care about either (i.e. expats and Mexicans) and more kids play soccer than any other sport.

Is this from your "Things people were wrong about in 1978" file?

“What does YKK stand for anyway?”--Monica Lewinsky (1998)

“What’s the worst that can happen?”--American physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer (1944)

“Very funny. Now seriously Lord, what is this circumcision of which you speak?”--The Patriarch Abraham (1919 B.C.)

“Uh, tell the passengers that we’re making a little stop to pick up some ice.”--Cap’n Edward John Smith (1912)

“Ewwww ... that doesn’t mean it’s O.K. to throw it.”--Charles Darwin (1860) to 10 year old son Leonard when he first realized that his boy had a future in politics

"*GACK*"--Louis Payne (July 7, 1865)

Best Regards

John

Is this from your "Things people were wrong about in 1978" file?

The NASL was built on a foundation of sand. It's not surprising in the least that it failed to become sustainable, and the differences between then and now only demonstrates why the current growth of interest in the sport is likely to continue on the upward path. The folks in charge certainly don't get everything right, but they've learned a lot of lessons.

The MLS is not trying to go too far, too fast. The emphasis is on creating a strong infrastructure for American talent, with the occasional big name (Beckham - rumors of Zidane, Ronaldo, etc.) brought in to raise the profile, rather than the other way around. It's already among the better-attended leagues in the world, albeit with a much larger population base to draw from.

As an aside, I really don't get the dislike for soccer around here. When conversations veer into bowling or pool or cricket or whatever, there's never a group of people who come in solely for the purpose of making snide comments about the sport. You don't like it? Cool. Nobody is trying to force you to. Just move onto the next discussion. Why is it necessary to rifle out a few of the most tired cliches?

As an aside, I really don't get the dislike for soccer around here. When conversations veer into bowling or pool or cricket or whatever, there's never a group of people who come in solely for the purpose of making snide comments about the sport.

Bowling, pool, and cricket are cool.

Part of the distaste for soccer here might be the continued braying of soccer fans about its worldwide popularity. Yes, we understand, it's a sport you can teach to any quasi-conscious biped in about 30 seconds, but that isn't necessarily to its credit.

I look forward to a future full of faked injuries, lit flares thrown at players, massive riots, street fights between rival fan groups, and stabbings in the stands.

You don't really know anything about soccer do you?

Indeed. He left out deciding world championships with penalty kicks.





(That was snark, soccer is a good game that has problems like all others).

Why is it necessary to rifle out a few of the most tired cliches?

Because baseball is boring. No action. Just a bunch of fat guys standing around and scratching their groins.

You can email and word process and play solitaire to your heart's content on 640 k ram and I'd guess that covers 85% of computer time. Not sure how well web surfing and IMing work with 640 k ram but I'd guess you don't really need substantially more than that. Granted, video games are right out but do we really "need" those?

Well, the issue here is how you define "need", how you define "web surfing" and so on. Try looking at how much memory your modern web browser uses, whether in Windows, or one of the 'Nixes: Linux, FreeBSD, Solaris, OpenBSD etc. You will be surprised.

Do we "need" a modern browser? Do we "need" a modern email client? Pine works fine. Do we "need" a modern word processor? Vi / emacs works fine. And so on.

What you might not "need", someone else might.

There are some folks -- mainly working on things like trying to find better ways to blow up the world, track how we're destroying the environment, seeing galaxies billions of miles away, finding the next incomprehensible financial product to destroy our economy or genetically modifying sheep so they grow chicken breasts -- who "need" a couple gigs of ram, but not many.

Or making movies, or making ads, or writing the code for your modern browsers / word processors / email clients / web servers / video games, etc.

"I don't need a quasi-conscious biped."-- Paul McCartney, June 11, 2002

Or making movies, or making ads, or writing the code for your modern browsers / word processors / email clients / web servers / video games, etc.

Or pr0n!

Baseball will not even be remotely popular in China for another decade, and that will only come with MLB pushing it forward -- it won't happen organically. There is little space for diamonds, the rules of the game are completely foreign to the masses... it's going to take time.

Rememver... In the 1960s, Chairman Mao Zedong banned baseball in China. As the leader of the communist country, the sport was viewed by him as bourgeois. For baseball to take root, it will be a monumental task.

Here's what has to happen to get baseball as anything more than a curiosity... a national television deal. After that, a player has to make it in MLB -- and a star player, at that.

Selig's right... baseball will be big in China. But, not in his lifetime.

I look forward to a future full of faked injuries, lit flares thrown at players, massive riots, street fights between rival fan groups, and stabbings in the stands.

Just a typical weekend at Comiskey The Cell.

I look forward to a future full of faked injuries, lit flares thrown at players, massive riots, street fights between rival fan groups, and stabbings in the stands.

And here I thought by declining to mention the Honduras-El Salvador "Soccer War" of 1969 you were endeavoring to tread lightly...

As an aside, I really don't get the dislike for soccer around here. When conversations veer into bowling or pool or cricket or whatever, there's never a group of people who come in solely for the purpose of making snide comments about the sport.

I've heard a lot of jokes about bowling, but few about pool or cricket. As far as the variety of skills required, and the chain of events you need to account for, pool is far, far more interesting than bowling.

Do we "need" a modern email client? Pine works fine.

Truer words have never been uttered.

"Nobody will ever need more than 640K RAM." -- Bill Gates, 1981

He never said this

"I didn't really say everything I said." -- Yogi Berra

the fact that 99.9% of these happen without incident is not reported.

I thought it was the critics who claimed 99.9% of soccer games happened without incident.

Do we "need" a modern email client? Pine works fine.

So does quill and foolscap, for that matter

"Madam, I'm Adam."

Do we "need" a modern word processor? Vi / emacs works fine.

I can't speak for emacs, but I was enjoying the break.

Baseball won't happen organically in China, but how soon it happens will depend exactly on how quickly a player breaks through and becomes a star in the U.S. As of this moment there's no Yao Ming of baseball, but it's a big country and there's nothing to say there isn't some 6 ft. 6 kid in rural China who could throw a 94 mph fastball if someone handed him a baseball. That kid could be playing in the minors in America by this time next year and starting for a major league team in two or three years. If that happens -boom- suddenly 300 million Chinese people are tuning into every one of his starts and baseball is immensely popular in China. Even if he's playing it Pittsburg.
If there's no version of Yao Ming in baseball it'll take longer. But baseball is a sport of the future in China and other parts of the world. It just arrived at the party later than basketball, and has been handicapped by fairly recent U.S. hegemony. Soccer is not the sport of the future. The World Cup is popular, and national soccer leagues are popular in the countries from which they originate, but only the British Premier League has far reaching popularity worldwide. It has already peaked.
Basketball is already popular worldwide, but I'd argue its also nearly reached its peak. Baseball is a better game in general and has more potential cross-culturally. It can be slow and methodical like soccer and it can be fast-paced and exciting like basketball.
The NFL? Lets not get silly.

Soccer is not the sport of the future. The World Cup is popular, and national soccer leagues are popular in the countries from which they originate, but only the British Premier League has far reaching popularity worldwide. It has already peaked.

First of all, it's the English Premier League or the Barclay's Premier League, if you absolutely must. Second, its popularity is skyrocketing every day. The market growth for the league in Asia alone is staggering. I suppose it's possible that we are literally at this very moment at the peak, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that to be the case. Third, I'm sure all the Barca fans around the world will be interested to find out that La Liga actually has no international popularity.

None of this means that I can be sure futbol will continue to hold its dominant worldwide position. There is every chance that China does indeed pay it little heed in coming years, and such a huge market obviously can drive global trends. But it's hard to see an argument why any other sport is any more likely to take the role of global sports hegemon.

I personally happen to love baseball, of course but I don't see any intrinsic reason why it would have a unique appeal for people elsewhere in the world.

One simple but overlooked fact is that baseball (and American football, too, of course) is relatively complicated, requires a fair number of people to be played, and involves quite a bit of standing around. While these factors are part of why I love it - it's a lot to expect for some kid with few resources to fall in love with. Soccer has the tremendous advantage of being quite simple, requiring no infrastructure apart from the ball itself, and relatively easy to play with a small number of people.

Beyond all of that, it's intensely local. This is less true in China of course, but most of the world over you can actually watch people playing it somewhere nearby. You care a lot about the big European leagues, but there are also local competitions that retain significance. Plus, there is the World Cup where you get to let your national pride shine, as well as semi-annual regional Cups. That stuff matters.

I'd say it matters to such an extent that it caps the sport's popularity. I live in Korea, and while the EPL (sorry for the BPL prior) is popular because there are a couple Koreans playing in it, if they weren't there people wouldn't watch. They'd go on rooting for the national team, which is more what they care about. Incidentally, no one cares about the Korean pro soccer league. Wereas the KBO has maintained (with some bumps) its popularity since the early 80s. This is to say nothing of baseball in Japan, where it is practically a religion. There's no reason to think it won't be huge in China. I also don't buy the lack of equipment idea some people float.

The fact that it's complicated is one of the biggest reasons people in Asia love baseball. American football doesn't have that same mono on mono appeal. Indidentally, futbol doesn't either. American Football is also larger than life wereas baseball (and futbol) is very grounded and real. I think this has something to do with its popularity in Latin countries, but I suppose that's another topic entirely, even though I think part of that appeal would fit for Chinese people as well.

So does quill and foolscap, for that matter

You ever actually used Pine? It is lightweight, can be run off a variety of computers, anywhere, and easy and intuitive to use to anyone who does not stubbornly insist on flashy graphics.

In my opinion...

I agree with Aaron S that worldwide audiences tuning into the Premier League is not the future. But neither is worldwide audiences tuning into MLB (or NBA for that matter). If baseball does become "big" in China then Chinese interest in MLB will be a transitional phase to interest in domestic Chinese baseball. Without lots of domestic baseball Chinese interest in MLB will be no more than a fad.

I also disagree with the notion that simply because a Chinese player does well in MLB that will necessarily lead to widespread Chinese interest in baseball. It would help, of course.

I'd say it matters to such an extent that it caps the sport's popularity. I live in Korea, and while the EPL (sorry for the BPL prior) is popular because there are a couple Koreans playing in it, if they weren't there people wouldn't watch. They'd go on rooting for the national team, which is more what they care about. Incidentally, no one cares about the Korean pro soccer league. Wereas the KBO has maintained (with some bumps) its popularity since the early 80s. This is to say nothing of baseball in Japan, where it is practically a religion. There's no reason to think it won't be huge in China. I also don't buy the lack of equipment idea some people float.

What is true of Korea and Japan is not true of other Asian countries.

It's not true of China, and it's not true of SE Asian countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore.

In the SE Asian countries, soccer is ridiculously popular. Let's ignore the English league for the moment. The World Cup is not just "popular". During WC season, people will watch live games at anytime of the night, at 12am, at 3am, at 5am, at home, in pubs, or in open air cafes. And, they are NOT following their national / local teams. They are following and cheering on players from countries that they would have no idea existed, if not for soccer.

And, it's not just the WC. The same thing happens during the European Championship. It happens during the European Champions League, on a lesser scale.

As for the English league, the popularity, at least in the SE Asian countries, has nothing to do with local players of any sort. Teams like Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United, Arse, have no players, from those countries. They are the most popular. Man United and Liverpool have been popular in countries, like Singapore and Malaysia, former British colonies, that share the language and the soccer culture, ie organising group trips to away games, the terrace singing, for a long time.

And the popularity transcends any particular demographic group. In the mid 90s, Jamie Redknapp, Liverpool player, probably had more (female) Asian fans than English fans.

In the 90s, in Singapore and Malaysia, even the local leagues were ridiculously popular. Big games would result in sold out audiences of ~70K-80K. Very mediocre players, both local, and foreign imports, could make very good livings playing in the local leagues. What killed fan interest was the discovery of widespread involvement in match fixing by the players, both local and foreign.

Also, please explain the popularity of Michael Owen among Asian girls, including Japanese girls, where baseball is a religion.

One simple but overlooked fact is that baseball (and American football, too, of course) is relatively complicated, requires a fair number of people to be played, and involves quite a bit of standing around. While these factors are part of why I love it - it's a lot to expect for some kid with few resources to fall in love with.

Yet a large contingent of today's MLB ballplayers came from that very background, in such places as the Dominican Republic.

The fewer people you have, the less standing around there is. And they needn't know the balk rule before playing. Kids have a remarkable ability to set compensating rules: if the ball gets stuck under the parked car, it's a double; anything hit to the right side is an out; ghost runners; and so on. The essence of baseball is very simple, and can be adapted to nearly any environment.

I'm not saying it'll catch on quickly in China. I have no idea. But the barriers you mention are lower than you think. Heck, even the trend in currency is making equipment more affordable every day.

I would be shocked if the MLS ever got anywhere close to as big as the main 3 leagues, but it's not crazy to think that it could build a following that surpasses the rest. There are now a lot of people in this country who grew up playing soccer.

I dunno. I'm one of those people who grew up playing soccer, I'm now in my mid-30s and couldn't be less interested in the sport. All of my friends are the same... when we talk sports, we talk about baseball, football, college hoops, the NBA, and hockey, in that order. Soccer isn't even on the radar, and we were/are pretty much the prime sports demographic. I'm convinced a big problem is that soccer is hard to gamble on, at least in America.

I'm convinced a big problem is that soccer is hard to gamble on, at least in America.

"What are the odds that the total goals scored will be 1?"

"What are the odds that the winning side will win by one goal?"

I'm convinced a big problem is that soccer is hard to gamble on, at least in America.

Nothing is difficult to gamble on.

“What does YKK stand for anyway?”--Monica Lewinsky (1998)

Awesome. Nicely done, John.

I dunno. I'm one of those people who grew up playing soccer, I'm now in my mid-30s and couldn't be less interested in the sport. All of my friends are the same... when we talk sports, we talk about baseball, football, college hoops, the NBA, and hockey, in that order. Soccer isn't even on the radar, and we were/are pretty much the prime sports demographic. I'm convinced a big problem is that soccer is hard to gamble on, at least in America

Chuck Klosterman has a funny essay about soccer. I don't agree with it, but it cracks me the hell up.

In the 1960s, Chairman Mao Zedong banned baseball in China. As the leader of the communist country, the sport was viewed by him as bourgeois. For baseball to take root, it will be a monumental task.

This is a great point. Don't forget: basketball was popular in China during the 1950s and 1960s. Go watch the old revolutionary film "Lei Feng" for a firsthand example.

What is true of Korea and Japan is not true of other Asian countries.

Exactly. Having lived in China, and having dealt with Chinese people on a personal basis for several years, I can tell you that sports alliegance there is not as nationalistic as in Korea or Japan. It's going to take a lot more than a few Chinese stars to get baseball popular there.

Ever tried to find a local Chinese soccer game on Chinese TV? I had a hard time when I was in Nanjing -- but I knew I could watch European soccer reruns nightly on the Jiangsu Sports station. The one match I did find involving local Chinese clubs was poorly played, and with extremely sparse attendance.

Though it's a bit easier to find CBL games on Chinese TV, I'd say the same thing applies to basketball in China.

ReggieV, #2 was very very nice indeed. I can't believe it got this far before getting its propers.

The accompanying picture of Selig makes him look like Max Headroom's evil grandfather.

You don't really know anything about soccer do you?

Whoa, there, little hooligan. Don't get all Humberto Muñoz Castro on us!

So does quill and foolscap, for that matter

Quills are teh suck.

What team sports are popular in China? That crazy volleyball where you can't hit it with your hands? Seems to me like there's a niche, and baseball can fill it as well as any other except perhaps for soccer.

"What are the odds that the total goals scored will be 1?"

Smart money takes the under.... until they line up to decide the game by the soccer equivalent of a slam dunk or home run hitting contest.

Teams like Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United, Arse, have no players, from those countries. They are the most popular.

Manchester United does...

Park Ji-Sung

Smart money takes the under.... until they line up to decide the game by the soccer equivalent of a slam dunk or home run hitting contest.

You can't expect them to play overtime periods until somebody scores. The EU has outlawed torture and capital punishment...

Manchester United does...

Park Ji-Sung

Right, the claim was that they have no "players" from those countries. Said nothing about glorified marketing techniques.

On an unrelated note, haha, soccer games are low-scoring. Hilarious stuff.

Do you also find baseball games that end 1-0 to be boring? Do you believe that nothing that happens in a baseball game has any significance if it doesn't produce a run?

I really don't get it. The ideal soccer game (for me) ends 2-1. The ideal baseball game ends 4-3. Is it really that big a difference?

Selig: “Baseball will be big in China”

Yes, but will it be Big in Japan?

Manchester United does...

By "those" countries, I meant China, and the SE Asian countries: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore.

Park is Korean, and actually a decent player. He's not just a marketing technique.

Dong Fangzhuo is the marketing technique player at United.

He's pretty rubbish and has spent most of the last 4 years (?) at Anderlecht.

And it's dead easy to watch EPL in South East Asia, I don't have Sky and use Singapore/Hong Kong/Chinese/Malaysian feeds to watch the games.

Why don't they expand into India? Simliar population to China. Already a popular and simliar sport (cricket).

Why don't they expand into India? Simliar population to China. Already a popular and simliar sport (cricket).

I think you answered your own question. I think a country with an entrenched and popular sport would be less likely to embrace something similar. Turn the question around and ask why cricket isn't more popular here.

WHy is Lecrosse kind of popular in Canada?