My pullquote would have continued to the "might not be realistic to expect such power from Posey or Angel Villalona" line. While Posey is not expected to hit for power with a wood bat, Villalona's *only* calling card is his superlative power potential. In five or eight years, he's either out of baseball if he never develops better contact skills, or he's hitting with the same kind of .300 ISOs big power bats feature.

But then, I'd never have posted Jenkins. Jenkins is worse that just an idiot: he knows just enough to sound reasonable, but his fundamental stupidity will out in every column.

But WILL the NL West include Manny Ramirez next season? I know his first couple of weeks in a Dodgers uniform endeared him to the LA faithful, but that doesn't automatically mean he'll be back. The Dodgers have initiated enough bloated contracts with declining players over the last couple of seasons that you'd figure they would be getting a bit more cautious during the off-season.

I meant to emphasize the last line of that quote, specifically "no power-hitting free agent (especially a left-handed hitter) is going to want to play in AT&T;Park."

I know that Jenkins pretends to hate Bonds, but that's patently ridiculous.

But then, I'd never have posted Jenkins. Jenkins is worse that just an idiot: he knows just enough to sound reasonable, but his fundamental stupidity will out in every column.

Isn't that half the fun?

The problem with Jenkins is as you say, he APPEARS reasonable, so much so that otherwise intelligent yet casual fans will swallow what he has to say hook, line and sinker.

But WILL the NL West include Manny Ramirez next season?

I think this losing streak by LA means "no."

Ramirez signs a three-year deal in Cleveland IMO.

I know of a left-handed power hitter who would be willing to play in AT&T;Park.

And Sabean is just the person to captain the Titanic of the Giants past the iceberg of their future.

Dunn is a free agent as well, isn't he?

Not that the departure of he and Ramirez from the division would mean the Giants don't need to get some power into that lineup. They're like the Herzog Cardinals without the speed.

I would be very surprised if Sabean had any interest in Dunn on account of his below-average defense and strikeouts. Sabean likes guys who hustle and put the ball in play, and HR's are clearly not a priority. There's a decent chance that the Giants won't have a single hitter who finishes with more than 15 homers, which has to be some sort of record for the steroid era. Even the 2003 Dodgers had a couple guys with 15+ homers.

I can hit left-handed. I'll do it.

And Sabean is just the person to captain the Titanic of the Giants past the iceberg of their future.

When you've already hit the iceberg, does it really matter who's steering anymore?

There's a decent chance that the Giants won't have a single hitter who finishes with more than 15 homers, which has to be some sort of record for the steroid era. Even the 2003 Dodgers had a couple guys with 15+ homers.

The Jays are a Vernon Wells injury away from having this happen. There's a reason that they've got an ERA+ of 118, and are just barely above .500. The Giants aren't the only team with an inept offense.

The problem is that Velez, Ochoa and Burriss all kinda suck, and Frandsen is a fringy starter at best. Noonan isn't having a good season and he's in low-A anyway. Of course despite what Jenkins says, Schierholtz has pretty good power.

It's hard to see the Giants being good even in 2010. Let's say Lewis improves, Schierholtz comes up and handles major league pitching fine, Posey is ready by 2010, Sandoval is good at third, Rowand retains his value. Ishikawa and Frandsen don't make it. In the pitching, Cain and Sanchez take steps forward and Lincecum continues to dominate, Zito keeps bumbling along, Correia has to go back to the bullpen. This is a very optimistic take on 2010. And yet the team will still have nothing at first, second and short, need another league-average starter and have very little in the bullpen.

There's always 2011...

The Jays are a Vernon Wells injury away from having this happen.

Never mind. Wells just hit #15.

Alou, if the overall scenario you outline--optimistic though it is--does play out, I don't see a reason why the Giants couldn't plug the holes in their lineup with free-agents and have an 85-90 win team in 2010. The way the West is going, that could even be the division winner.

Of course, whether plugging holes with free-agents is a good idea for the Giants, who would find themselves two years after that scenario back right where they are now, is another matter.

exactly why would a left-handed slugger want to play there.
that wall is high and deep.

the kinda dumb statement was creative ways exist to solve the problem.

Well yea, numnuz, creating a shorter and shallower one is what is called...Austin Power's nemesis hand gestures inserted..would, in fact be.... a creation.

A left handed slugger would want to play there because the Giants paid him. Speaking of lefties, Sabathia wants to play there; he's from Vallejo and seemingly grew up a Giants fan. Which is a shame, I like him but there's no way the Giants are offering the stupid money he's going to get from someone. I mean, if he decided to take an enormous hometown discount, yeah, go for it (no complaints here about building a 600 run pitching staff), but it ain't gonna happen.

The Giants are in an odd purgatory. It's completely conceivable that the 2009 Giants could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball: Zito's probably not going to be this bad for the rest of his career, they could conceivably get something out of Lowry, there's a lot of kids, and Lincecum and Cain are if not the best 1-2 in the majors pretty close to it by this point. If that happens, they really aren't that far from being contenders in the NL West - which sucks, let's not forget. One impact hitter, maybe 2-3 average guys and maybe some of the Ishikawa/Frandsen types on the bench. Given the going rate for talent that might be expensive, but the Giants are going to lose something like 350,000 in attendance from last year, and I reckon another two bad years might see another 300,000 fewer fans (over both years). So politically I think they need to do something.

Of course I have no faith in Sabean to get this right, which sucks.

There's a decent chance that the Giants won't have a single hitter who finishes with more than 15 homers, which has to be some sort of record for the steroid era. Even the 2003 Dodgers had a couple guys with 15+ homers.

Lastings Milledge leads the Nationals with 13, and he should get there. After him, comes Willie Harris (!) with 12, and Ronnie Belliard with 11, and that's it for Nats with double-digit homers.

The problem is that everyone that they're spending over $1M on right now (aside from Rowand and Molina) are pretty much deadweight: Roberts, Winn, Zito, Vizquel, Aurilia, Lowry (unless he can return from injury--he's toast until proven otherwise, AFAIC), and Hennessey. And Molina is less necessary given the emergence of Sandoval (with Posey hopefully not far behind). Furthermore, what's really frustrating is that all of the contracts were ill-advised at the time. The good news is that all but Zito are coming off payroll after 2009 (Vizquel and Aurilia are FA's, and Hennessey is possibly a non-tender). In addition, as far as I can tell, the only arbitration-eligible players for the 2009 season are Correia Taschner and he won't command much of a payday given his ineffectiveness in 2006-7. Probably less than $1M, in the $750k range.

So after 2009, they'll clear a lot of payroll:
- Roberts ($6.5M)
- Winn ($8.25M)
- Molina ($6M)
- Lowry ($4.25M--assuming $6.25M option is declined)
- plus the $9.5M freed up after this year from Vizquel and Aurilia

All told, that's $34.5M that they will have available (a little less than half their 2008 payroll) from 2008's $76.5M budget--and $45M+ less than their ~$90M budgets of 2005-7. While after 2009 they will be paying a bit more money to Cain (under a very reasonable contract through 2011), and a few arbitration-eligibles (assuming no long-term contracts are signed): Lincecum, Sanchez, Wilson, Lewis. And when Lewis starts to get expensive, I hope that the Giants get a clue and trade him for something halfway useful. He's a very good 4th outfielder, but nowhere near a quality middle-of-the-order corner outfielder.

So even with the Zito albatross, the Giants should have the room to add a few impact free agents over the next few years. And hopefully rather than signing a half dozen mediocrities (like Roberts/Winn), Sabean will pursue genuine assets like Rowand.

My fear is that rather than going after an above-average hitter and great defender like Rowand (since Teixeira will be too much, than Orlando Hudson would be at the top of my wish list), Sabean will overpay a few guys like Joe Crede (in the mold of Roberts/Winn): possibly better than the incumbents, but good enough to substantially improve the team. Alternatively, I could see him throwing a lot of money at K-Rod, and pitching is not where this team should be focusing it's longterm multimillion dollar deals on at this time (even though the bullpen is a weakness).

So anyway, I could definitely see the Giants seriously competing as early as 2010. 2009 is a stretch unless they add a lot of offense via free agency.

Well jeez, even Dustin Pedroia has 15 HR...

Oh, wow--I hadn't thought of that, but I'll bet the Giants is where K-Rod will land! Or the Dodgers . . .or the Rangers. Those are my early picks as the three most likely victims.

And when Lewis starts to get expensive, I hope that the Giants get a clue and trade him for something halfway useful. He's a very good 4th outfielder, but nowhere near a quality middle-of-the-order corner outfielder.

By most every metric I've seen, Fred Lewis is above-average in left field. Sure he doesn't have Manny Ramirez's bat or whatever, but that's a high bar. He is a good baserunner and a good fielder. What concerns me about Lewis is that because of his late start he's already quite old, so by the time he's getting expensive he's probably already in his decline phase.

You don't want Manny, TA. His defense will make you want to stick wood chisels into your eyes.