Nate Silver's guestimate on where A-rod goes

THE GORE/GINGRICH/BLOOMBERG MEMORIAL MAKES-SENSE-WHEN- YOU-STARE-AT-IT-FOR-TOO-LONG DIVISION

5. Mets – Rodriguez would have to be convinced to play second base for a year – he could conceivably move to first once Carlos Delgado’s contract expires in a year’s time – but $32m/year plus New York endorsement money plus a chance to stick it to the Yankees could do the trick. I dismissed this scenario at first but find it more plausible at second glance.

4. Phillies – Possible mystery team? Their third base situation in 2007 was one of the biggest disasters in baseball, they have more money than they pretend to have, they’re right on the playoff bubble, and there’s some aesthetic appeal to fielding a world-class infield of Rodriguez, Rollins, Utley and Howard. Perhaps the best fit in baseball on paper.

The prevailing sentiment here seems to be that A-Rod should get "what the market will bear" and that Boras is just doing his (usual very good) job, one I would generally agree with -- except for Boras' insistence on stepping on the World Series and, as usual, being a universe-class jerk about the whole fiasco. There is something to Gammons' expressed sentiment that "He's never played in a World Series. Maybe there's a reason."

This article has lots to criticize and discuss, but he lost me with this:

The whole idea, though, goes against the philosophy of owner Arte Moreno. He's not wild about paying someone twice as much as the heroic Vladimir Guerrero. Moreno doesn't want to upset Commissioner Bud Selig, furious over the prospect of Boras once again destroying the game's salary structure (and, as a result, raising ticket prices for the paying customers).

Bud feels my pain!!

How awesome would it be if the Rockies opened up the purse strings and got him? Can you imagine his numbers in that park? And with him and whatever they get for Atkins they would immediately be the favorites in the NL.

please sign with the giants
please sign with the giants
please sign with the giants
please sign with the giants
please sign with the giants
please sign with the giants
please sign with the giants
please sign with the giants

Jenkins would instantly turn Pedro Feliz into a misunderstood hero if he ended up being replaced by Arod.

Jenkins is a terrible writer on a terrible bureau on a profoundly terrible newspaper. I would't mind the Inanimate Carbon Rod signing with the Giants; I think it'd make my girlfriend (a rabid Giants fan) happier than watching Pedro Feliz in person sixty times a year.

The whole idea, though, goes against the philosophy of owner Arte Moreno. He's not wild about paying someone twice as much as the heroic Vladimir Guerrero.

Uh-huh. Arte Moreno absolutely hates paying great Hispanic players lots of money to help his huge-market team win on an enormous payroll in Southern California. I'm sure he just can't tolerate the idea of solving a problematic third base situation with the best player in baseball, a player who automatically puts his team in the discussion for best team in the league and raises its national profile. Yeah. Right.

Nobody spots a phony more quickly, or with more venom, than manager Ozzie Guillen.

Yes, outspoken and offensive = able to spot ########! That makes so much sense. Gosh, I wish I'd looked at it that way before.

Basically, this is an article about how the Giants seem more likely to sign Rodriguez than anybody else (snerk), and how that would be the end of the world (double snerk). This guy was born an idiot, and he hasn't gotten any smarter since then.

I have no beef against A-Rod and find all the venom in the press rather disingenuous, but there's no doubt that announcing his opt-out during the World Series game was one of the all-time great P.R. debacles in baseball. I've never seen a superstar, MVP-type player in any sport become so loathed for what was essentially a social blunder.

There is something to Gammons' expressed sentiment that "He's never played in a World Series. Maybe there's a reason."

Yeah, there's something--nitwittery. A-Rod and noted clubhouse malcontent Ernie Banks: two of a kind.

I've never seen a superstar, MVP-type player in any sport become so loathed for what was essentially a social blunder.

Terrell Owens comes to mind...

Bud Selig, furious over the prospect of Boras once again... raising ticket prices for the paying customers.

Of course, this is completely wrong. It might be used as the justification to raise prices, but they have nothing to do with one another.

I've never seen a superstar, MVP-type player in any sport become so loathed for what was essentially a social blunder.

Michael Vick?

Michael Vick?

It was worse than a crime--it was a blunder? 8-)

Maybe Sammy Sosa for leaving a game early and getting caught with a corked bat. Or Shirley Babashoff for telling the truth about the chemically enhanced East German womens swim team with deep voices.

I've never seen a superstar, MVP-type player in any sport become so loathed for what was essentially a social blunder.

Nah, people only need a reason to rip ARod. If it wasn't this, it would be something else.

I guess the question is what is important to ARod--winning, money, legacy. Though, I suppose the winning and legacy are almost the same thing, though legacy would also include home runs. I suppose he'll get his money. He might even fall into a good situation for winning. But I think even if he gets to a WS, his legacy is problematic. I mean, we're talking *greatest player ever* or some variation thereof. Better than Ripken, better than Schmidt, better than Barry. Bouncing around from position to position and from team to team really dilutes the brand identity. If he is anything less than the greatest player ever, then what exactly is he the greatest of? Greatest 3B? Greatest SS? Greatest left side of IF? Greatest HR hitter? What? What IS ARod after all is said and done?

I'm sure he just can't tolerate the idea of solving a problematic third base situation with the best player in baseball, a player who automatically puts his team in the discussion for best team in the league and raises its national profile. Yeah. Right.

Third base was problematic? Take a look at Chone Figgin's stats again, the guy really did hit .330 last year.

Sure, A-Rod would be a huge improvement over anybody, but if the Angels don't sign him they'll be fine at third base. Yes, I know the .330 was a fluke, and so was the .260 the year before that. He's a true .290 hitter who can score 100 runs a year and a damn good player.

If he is anything less than the greatest player ever, then what exactly is he the greatest of? Greatest 3B? Greatest SS? Greatest left side of IF? Greatest HR hitter? What? What IS ARod after all is said and done?

I think we'll get an idea of what he wants depending on whether he signs somewhere to play SS or 3B. If he signs with the Cubs to play SS, he'll set all of the SS batting records and his time at 3B will basically be ignored. Well, not ignored, but if he plays SS for 6 more years before moving to 1B people will say, "He could have been playing SS, but Jeter wouldn't move, so give him credit as if he played SS". In that case he'll go down as the greatest SS ever.

If he signs somewhere to play 3B, then the move to NY will be looked at as the start of his transition to a 3B. I'm guessing in that case that he'll end with more games at 3B than SS, so he'll be the greatest 3B ever.

Why do people assume that he can not play SS anymore? Just because he's bulked up, or from observations about his current reaction time and mobility?

Many of Jenkins' points were quite valid (especially those regarding the Cubs & Angels). It is odd that he didn't mention the Ms though.

A few other teams to consider:

BLUE JAYS: The CDN$ has gone up through the roof. Think of it this way. Last year, a $100 million payroll in US$ was about $120 mil CDN at the start of the '07 season. Now $120 million CDN is worth over $125 million USD. The Blue Jays get most of their revenue in CDN (Ticket sales, ads, tv etc, except for their share of the Fox/ESPN/TBS/XM contracts that are in USD). So, what has happened is that their expenses (salaries) just went way down and their revenues just went way up. What happened to the currency eseentially just handed the Blue Jays the money they need to sign A-Rod. Will they? If all A-Rod/Boras cares about is money, it is certainly a possibility.

PHILLIES: Adding A-Rod would surely give them the best infield of all-time, but their problem is lack of pitching, not hitting

MARINERS: If they can come up with the money, it is certainly a possibility. They'd have to find a new home for Beltre, and the Yankees need a 3B (but for that trade to work, Seattle would need to either eat more salary, which would make A-Rod prohibitively expensive, or get another "underacheiver" in return.

CLEVELAND: It doesn't make sense in that (a) they have a low payroll that will get more expensive as their stars hit arbitration (b) they don't sign mega-deals and (c) they have a load of stars that had disappointing playoff stats, why would they need the "king of playoff slumps"?

DODGERS: A-Rod seems to be getting along better with Torre, and the Dodgers need to do more than just bring in Torre to turn things around. I think that "batting 8th" vs. the Tigers in '06 is overblown. Torre often juggles his lineup when players are slumping. As any Yankees fan, and they can recount times when Giambi, Posada, Matsui, Abreu etc were near the bottom of the lineup during a slump.

ANGELS: Of all the teams here, I think they "need" A-Rod the most, and have the resources. The question is whether Moreno & Co want to spend this amount of money to improve their lineup.

-Dan

Take a look at Chone Figgin's stats again, the guy really did hit .330 last year.

And he really won't ever again.

Nah, people only need a reason to rip ARod. If it wasn't this, it would be something else.

If A-Rod instead waited 10 days to announce he was opting out, people would be bashing him for delaying the announcement.

MARINERS: If they can come up with the money, it is certainly a possibility. They'd have to find a new home for Beltre, and the Yankees need a 3B (but for that trade to work, Seattle would need to either eat more salary, which would make A-Rod prohibitively expensive, or get another "underacheiver" in return.

I think they have the money. I don't think they would have to eat any of Beltre's contract as he's not really overpaid and the Yankees can afford his contract. What could the Yanks give the M's in return, though? I think that would be the sticking point. Of course, they could always trade Beltre to another team.

If our division rivals want to sign A-Rod, I hope the Angels help them out by taking the horrible Beltre contract off their hands.

I think our chances would be just as good with Beltre at third and Adam Dunn at DH as getting A-Rod, and would cost less.

Leader in the clubhouse is this scenario:

A-Rod gets piece of ownership and RSN revenue streams; in exchange, franchise gets new stadium. Boras sets precedent with the "IPN" idea.

Florida Marlins.

You heard it here first (or sort of).

What happened to the currency eseentially just handed the Blue Jays the money they need to sign A-Rod. Will they? If all A-Rod/Boras cares about is money, it is certainly a possibility.

Possible, but it seems too much like the Texas situation - a team stretching to compete with the top tier teams. Don't think A-Rod will want to bet the exchange rate remains favorable to our Northern Neighbors over his lengthy contract, and I have my doubts about him wanting to remain in the AL East if he's actually looking for a new environment.

Seriously,

is there a team in the majors who couldn't find a spot for A-Rod? Short of A-Rod demanding to play catcher on the same team as Johnny Bench, every team in the majors can easily justfiy juggling their defensve alignment to accomodate the best player in the game.

Possible, but it seems too much like the Texas situation - a team stretching to compete with the top tier teams. Don't think A-Rod will want to bet the exchange rate remains favorable to our Northern Neighbors over his lengthy contract, and I have my doubts about him wanting to remain in the AL East if he's actually looking for a new environment.

Are contracts with Canadian teams denominated in Canadian dollars? I didn't think so, I thought the currency risk (unless negotiated otherwise) fell with the team, not the player.

Re: Toronto
I certainly see your point about A-Rod wanting to get out of the AL East. However, JP Riccardi is in an odd position of complaining for years that he didn't have enough money. Then when he finally got more money to spend, he had the problem of finding takers. It would have looked awful for him have gone to his boss and said, "Well I didn't really need the extra money", so he spent a ton on V Wells. Now, Riccardi should have even more $$ to spend, and there aren't a ton of great players available. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the Blue Jays made a bid.

The amount of venom being directed at ARod over this is truly amazing. You'd think the guy had just pushed a schoolbus full of puppies into an icy lake.

Are contracts with Canadian teams denominated in Canadian dollars? I didn't think so, I thought the currency risk (unless negotiated otherwise) fell with the team, not the player.

Yes, but if/when the Canadian Dollar falls against the original dollar, then the Blue Jays would be in a tight financial situation. I don't think that ARod would want that, if he wants to be on a competitive team.

Besides, I doubt that ARod's wife wants to go to Toronto, given the pictures earlier this season.

One thing we can be sure of though, is that A-Rod & Boras will let this thing drag out until the end of the year (if not longer). If we think we're sick of hearing about A-Rod's $$, it has only just begun.

Yes, but if/when the Canadian Dollar falls against the original dollar, then the Blue Jays would be in a tight financial situation. I don't think that ARod would want that, if he wants to be on a competitive team.

The obvious other side of the coin is when the C$ is strong vs. the US$, the Jays make out like bandits. And right now that is the very situation they find themselves in: a C$ buys about US$1.05.

A-Rod gets piece of ownership

I thought that was verboten.

Just when you thought Bpro had gotten over the weird fantasy of moving Chipper Jones from 3B to the outfield, they strike again!
ugh, that what he needs. OPS leader for 2 years running at 3B, but struggling with bad legs, hands and obliques. Move him to the Outfield! Brilliant!

The amount of venom being directed at ARod over this is truly amazing. You'd think the guy had just pushed a schoolbus full of puppies into an icy lake.

It is amazing, isn't it.

It seems as though the last rational, proportional understanding of anything having to do with ARod occurred somewhere around 1999.

Commissioner Bud Selig, furious over the prospect of Boras once again destroying the game's salary structure

#### YOU BUD SELIG

someone kick this anti-player stooge out of office, now.

The obvious other side of the coin is when the C$ is strong vs. the US$, the Jays make out like bandits. And right now that is the very situation they find themselves in: a C$ buys about US$1.05.

Yes, but that likely won't last 8-10 years, so they have to plan accordingly.

The smart thing is to spend more in times like this - but not so much more that when the C$ drops they are in a world of hurt. And the flipside is that they should be prepared to handle times when the C$ is weak relative to the Dollar by saving some of their extra profits now, so that they don't have to make panic moves later on.

White Sox: Nobody spots a phony more quickly, or with more venom, than manager Ozzie Guillen.

Wait, Ozzie's going to poison A-Rod?

Wait, Ozzie's going to poison A-Rod?

Never get involved in a land war in Asia!

ARod to the Phillies would be interesting...but unless he led the Phils to multiple World Series titles, he'd only be regarded as the second-greatest third baseman in franchise history. And the Philly press can be tough, though they're relatively rational compared to New York and Boston. But I don't know if the market is sufficiently appealing for him compared to Los Angeles or Chicago.

Curse this damn Cub ownership situation!

They're far and away the best fit, at least strictly in terms of glaring positional need upgrades (as someone noted above... exactly what makes people think A-Rod has gone from a plus SS to someone that can't play the position anymore?).

They could also afford to pay him -- even with the A-Ram, Z, Soriano, and Lee contracts.... I'd personally be looking for someone to take Sorryano off my hands, even if I had to eat a sizeable chunk, but that's me.

DAMN! DAMN! DAMN! DAMN! DAMN!

Why couldn't this have happened last offseason, when the choice would have been an easy A-Rod over Sorryano decision?

The smart thing is to spend more in times like this - but not so much more that when the C$ drops they are in a world of hurt. And the flipside is that they should be prepared to handle times when the C$ is weak relative to the Dollar by saving some of their extra profits now, so that they don't have to make panic moves later on.

Could they do something with an annuity? Get a fixed-rate loan for 150M in C$, paying $29M C$ per year for 10 years, convert that to 160M in US$, buy an annuity with the US$ for 30M US$ per year for 10 years. OK the numbers are made up since I have no idea about anything financial, but does this kind of thing exist? I'm sure it's either way more complicated or way easier, but if it does exist, then the Blue Jays should be doing this for all of their long-term contracts.

The smart thing is to spend more in times like this - but not so much more that when the C$ drops they are in a world of hurt.

I imagine that the business people in Toronto are savvy enough to manage currency exchange risk with swaps or other such tools.

EDIT: something like what Greg said.

Yes, but that likely won't last 8-10 years, so they have to plan accordingly.

It might not; it might get even more in Canada's favor. Nobody knows.

"I've never seen a superstar, MVP-type player in any sport become so loathed for what was essentially a social blunder."

What about when Alomar spat on the ump?

"You'd think the guy had just pushed a schoolbus full of puppies into an icy lake."

Screw Disney World. Puppy school is the REAL happiest place on earth.

Is this true:

Since Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS - the night Boston began its epic comeback from three games down against the Yankees - Rodriguez has come to the plate with 38 runners on base, over the span of 59 at-bats. He left every single one on base, going 0-for-27, right through the Yanks' Division Series loss to Cleveland this month.

Small sample size and all, but that is an impressive record of futility.

What about when Alomar spat on the ump?

I don't think inelegantly timing an announcement to the media is quite comparable to expectorating into someone's face.

And really: who actually got their undies in a bunch because the announcement came out during the World Series, anyway? Personally, I couldn't possibly care less.

And the Philly press can be tough, though they're relatively rational compared to New York and Boston.

I disagree, the media in New York and Boston can be irrationally tough, and many individual members are irrational, but the Philly sports/baseball media is just systematically irrational to an astounding degree. The only player who'd be more hated in Philly if he were to play there would be JD Drew.

And really: who actually got their undies in a bunch because the announcement came out during the World Series, anyway? Personally, I couldn't possibly care less.

I was annoyed because I was trying to watch the game and they spent a bunch of time talking about A-Rod. I place the blame for that 99% on Fox, though.

Small sample size and all, but that is an impressive record of futility.

Small sample size only matters if you assume a post-season AB for A-Rod is no different psychologically or otherwise than a regular season AB.

That obviously isn't the case (other than to his fanboys). For A-Rod, there truly is only one October.

I was annoyed because I was trying to watch the game and they spent a bunch of time talking about A-Rod. I place the blame for that 99% on Fox, though.

It's funny, this dovetails with the complaint many of us had regarding modern playoff broadcasts which is that the announcers no longer simply report the game (not that they have the talent to do that well anyway), but use the game as a mere jumping off point for the never ending opinion cycle.

If Boras had done his silly A-Rod notifying in the final innings of the 7th game in 1986, I doubt Vin Scully would even have mentioned it on the air.

Small sample size only matters if you assume a post-season AB for A-Rod is no different psychologically or otherwise than a regular season AB.

Wrong. Sample size always matters, for A-Rod and for everyone else, for the post-season and in every other game. It always matters. The principle of statistical signficance doesn't only apply when we want it to.

Michael Vick?

David, if you think torturing dogs for your personal amusement and profit, and then beating them to death, is merely a "social blunder" . . . geez!

Wrong. Sample size always matters, for A-Rod and for everyone else, for the post-season and in every other game. It always matters. The principle of statistical signficance doesn't only apply when we want it to.

It doesn't apply at all when you're comparing two different things for which the statistical method is not necessary.

A-Rod self-evidently choked the bat as a Yankee in the post-season. If you're only going to accept this if proven with the statistical confidence level you desire, you're missing out on a lot of interesting stuff about the game. There's more to the personalities who inhabit it than can be measures by slide rules and t-tables.

every team in the majors can easily justify juggling their defensve alignment to accomodate the best player in the game.

I thought we were talking about A-Rod, not Pujols.

The principle of statistical signficance doesn't only apply when we want it to.

Yeah, Steve, but even you have to admit that an 0-27 streak with RISP during post-season play is pretty impressive. It don't matter if it is totally meaningless in the grand scheme of things -- it is still impressive

Yeah, Steve, but even you have to admit that an 0-27 streak with RISP during post-season play is pretty impressive. It don't matter if it is totally meaningless in the grand scheme of things -- it is still impressive
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I'm not sure that that kind of streak IS statistically insignificant at reasonable levels of rigor, though I have no idea what A-Rod hits w/RISP in the regular season and I have a fuzzy recollection about sample sizes less than 30 being generally suspect.

The amount of venom being directed at ARod over this is truly amazing. You'd think the guy had just pushed a schoolbus full of puppies into an icy lake.

He shat upon the Red Sox winning the World Series, which is a far worse crime in my book.

He shat upon the Red Sox winning the World Series, which is a far worse crime in my book.


True, with the caveat that the system aided and abetted him. Which is what Schilling, in his inimitable way and post 49 in its eminently imitable way are complaining about.

He shat upon the Red Sox winning the World Series, which is a far worse crime in my book.

So does that invalidate it? Because if so - then my estimation of Scott Boras just went up a notch.

There is something to Gammons' expressed sentiment that "He's never played in a World Series. Maybe there's a reason."

Except for his worthless HR late in the elimination game against Cleveland, A-Hole posting a .140/.275/.163 0-RBI line in his last 3 playoff series is a pretty good place to start looking for reasons.

If the Red Sox had A-Rod (instead of Lowell), and A-Rod continued his streak of no RBIs, the Red Sox and Rockies would have been tied at 2 games each through Sunday. I wonder how much of A-Rod's slumps will end up in Boras' A-Rod bible?

A-Rod self-evidently choked the bat as a Yankee in the post-season

What was self-evident about it? Did you look in his eyes and see the terror? What did he do that made his performance "self-evidently choke" while what all the other guys did just happens sometimes? Did he cry on his way back to the dugout? Was he hyperventilating? Was his tongue sweating? What was it? Tell me, I'd really like to know.

Wait, Ozzie's going to poison A-Rod?

The amount of venom that will be directed at A-Rod will be amazing.

David, if you think torturing dogs for your personal amusement and profit, and then beating them to death, is merely a "social blunder" . . . geez!

It was an indubitable faux pas. A true gentleman always raises his pinky finger whilst beating a dog to death.

A-Rod self-evidently choked the bat as a Yankee in the post-season
What was self-evident about it? Did you look in his eyes and see the terror? What did he do that made his performance "self-evidently choke" while what all the other guys did just happens sometimes? Did he cry on his way back to the dugout? Was he hyperventilating? Was his tongue sweating?

Compare A-Rod's demeanor to Jeter's. As Jeter was compiling his .176/.176/.176 batting line vs. Cleveland, he always trudged back to the dugout doing the "sad" version of Steve Martin's wild-and-crazy-guy walk. That is leadership.

What was self-evident about it? Did you look in his eyes and see the terror? What did he do that made his performance "self-evidently choke" while what all the other guys did just happens sometimes? Did he cry on his way back to the dugout? Was he hyperventilating? Was his tongue sweating? What was it? Tell me, I'd really like to know.


Body language mostly, coupled with what we know about his ultra-needy, diva-like, rehearsed personality from following the game. There isn't a spontaneous bone in the guy's body and those are the kind of guys who overthink things and tighten up when their thoughts go a certain way, especialy when that certain way regards potential criticism.

He couldn't hack it in NY in the post-season and choked royally. You can rationalize it all you want, but the bottom line is the bottom line.

Body language mostly, coupled with what we know about his ultra-needy, diva-like, rehearsed personality from following the game. There isn't a spontaneous bone in the guy's body and those are the kind of guys who overthink things and tighten up when their thoughts go a certain way, especialy when that certain way regards potential criticism.

Uh-huh.

The fans in Seattle will never accept A-Fraud back into the Mariner fold. He's burned his bridges here. Pay-Rod going to Philly is an interesting idea with Pat Gillick there, formerly of the Mariners.