My god he is rubbish.

Can he do it?

Zito did manage one strikeout today: Volquez.

i hope he turns it around. i'm not going to root against him just because he is insanely wealthy

He could have been dumped to the DL with some sort of phantom arm injury - velocitylackitude or something - but with Correia now out with a strained oblique, I don't know if that will happen.

It's painful to watch. He has nothing.

It's painful to watch. He has nothing.

It'd be interesting to see if he'd be able to at least get by a bit better back in the AL just on account of experience and knowing the hitters from all his years there. If you are forced to try to get by on squat for stuff, I'd think it'd help to have a career's worth of knowledge of the hitters (and a career's worth of confidence) instead of one season to go on (and a season that was pretty so-so, at that).

For all the bad things that have happened to Mike Hampton over the years, somebody signing a FA pitcher to an even more debacular contract may be the only good news he's had in a long, long time. He should send Sabean a bottle of something good.

How the heck did Paul Bako get a triple? Did a sniper take out Randy Winn while he was going for a fly ball?

How the heck did Paul Bako get a triple? Did a sniper take out Randy Winn while he was going for a fly ball?

I didn't see it (I was at the White Sox-Orioles game, actually), but usually it's one of two things: 1) ball goes over CFer's head, rolls all the way to triangle-shaped "Triples Alley" at 420 foot marker, or 2) goes over RFer's head, hits brick wall, bounces away from fielders.

Did a sniper take out Randy Winn while he was going for a fly ball?

Flown in from the Tuzla airport special, just for the occasion!

There's absolutely no truth at all to the rumor that Brian Sabean has offered to take Zito on a surfing trip down to San Diego.

Man, I was looking back in the archives to try to find some dumb quotes from columnists as to how good Zito was. Even mainstream columnists thought this was an awful deal. And I forgot that no team offered anywhere near the deal San Fran did. Texas supposedly offered $99 million, while the Mets topped out at $84 million.

You made your bed Sabean, lie in it.

It wasn't supposed to be this bad. It's one thing if Sabean wildly overpaid for a league-average pitcher, and at least last year Zito was that. It's another thing altogether if Zito can't even fill out the back end of the rotation. And there's really no sign that he's going to get better.

Your 2008 San Francisco Giants are now on pace to score 523 runs!

Your 2008 San Francisco Giants are now on pace to score 523 runs!

Which might -- might -- just barely outscore their opponents.

In Barry Zito's starts.

Ba-dum-bump.

Really, the amazing thing is that the Giants have won 11 games thus far. Of course, Linchez is primarily responsible for that.

that 523 number would be the least runs scored in a full season since 1972. which is pretty impessive.

The Padres are tied with the Giants - 84 runs each.

He could have been dumped to the DL with some sort of phantom arm injury - velocitylackitude or something ...

There should be an unabled list for guys who are just unable to do anything worthwhile for weeks at a time.

I actually feel bad for the Giants. The Zito contract is looking sooo bad right now. I guess they're a rich team so they can take it a bit easier, but he could be a horrible pitcher, and they just can't cut 100 million dollars. I guess they have to hope he can be a league average starter, cause those are worth something. But his peripherals aren't really giving much hope.

I agree. Once they have another 5th starter back, they should stash him on the DL for as long as possible.

Also, what other ways are there out of this contract if it becomes apparent its a huge waste of money, lets say by the end of this season. Can they buy him out and ask him to retire or something? Bash his arm while he's asleep? etc

that 523 number would be the least runs scored in a full season since 1972.

Of course, 1972 was a shortened season. So even though three NL teams fell short of 523 that year, only one team, the Padres, actually scored at a slower pace than that. They scored just 488 runs in 153 games, which would translate into 517 runs in 162. Blech.

Of course, 1972 was a shortened season. So even though three NL teams fell short of 523 that year, only one team, the Padres, actually scored at a slower pace than that. They scored just 488 runs in 153 games, which would translate into 517 runs in 162. Blech.

And the 1971 Padres were worse - 486 runs in 161 games.

man, i totally forgot that 1972 was shortened.

You could have gotten away with it, Scott. I assumed you started from 1972 because it was shortened, and then worked forward. Nice admission! ;-)

There should be an unabled list for guys who are just unable to do anything worthwhile for weeks at a time.

The "inability to perform" list? That's an excuse that could get more and more common in the future.

Zito is a true American hero. He doesn't deserve this crap.

Does anyone else think he's hoping the Giants release him so he can tour with Radiohead?

Does anyone else think he's hoping Is anyone else hoping the Giants release him so he can tour with Radiohead?

Yes.

Zito is 0-5, Bronson Arroyo is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA, Ben Broussard seems to be falling apart at the plate, and we all know about Scott Spiezio's problems. Maybe in a couple years all of them will be unemployed and they can tour together.

Jeff Moorad thanks Mr. Sabean for taking his place in the wikipedia entry as author of biggest pitching contract ever eaten by MLB team.

Zito is 0-5, Bronson Arroyo is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA, Ben Broussard seems to be falling apart at the plate, and we all know about Scott Spiezio's problems. Maybe in a couple years all of them will be unemployed and they can tour together.

It doesn't sound like Brian Bruney's going to be pitching any more this year. I bet Brandon Medders won't be far behind, either. They can be a supergroup - the next Cream, perhaps.

If he doesn't start winning games, he could be jeopardizing that $18 million club option year in 2014.

I mean, so far he's lost 5 straight starts. So if he goes 0-193 during the remainder of the time he's under contract, they probably would want to buy out that extra year. On the other hand, if he only loses 12 games a year, like he did from 2003 through 2007, he might be worth the $18 million in 2014.

Jeff Moorad thanks Mr. Sabean for taking his place in the wikipedia entry as author of biggest pitching contract ever eaten by MLB team.

And I just hope and pray that a certain Venezuelan keeps his elbow and shoulder very healthy for the next several years, so Mr. Sabean can retain that distinction.

Don't worry Sam, I'm sure Endy Chavez will be an integral part of the Mets for another decade at least.

Oh, a Venezuelan PITCHER? Hmm...yes, keep praying.

Bako's triple was indeed into triples alley, that 421-feet-from-home nook in deep right-center. Winn tried to run it down, but was well short on his lunging attempt. Bako didn't even run all that hard to first, then turned it on between first and second when he realized he had a triple coming.

by the way, using the numbers at Cot's Contracts, and pro-rating what Zito has made so far this season, I calculate that the Giants still owe him a minimum of $112 million going forward from today.

I calculate that the Giants still owe him a minimum of $112 million going forward from today.
Good thing Bonds' chase of Aaron is drawing the fans!
(whisper whisper)
What? Really?
The Giants are ######.

Does anyone else think he's hoping the Giants release him so he can tour with Radiohead?

Nah, he wants to tour with Jack Johnson.

Nah, he wants to tour with Jack Johnson.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up touring with Dr. James Andrews.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up touring with Dr. James Andrews.

No, the frustrating thing is that by all accounts Zito is fully healthy... he's just lost both velocity and movement on the fastball and command of his curve. Right now all he can do is throw straight 82mph fastballs, off of which opposing hitters have no trouble hitting line drives.

I feel bad for Zito. Sure he has all this money, but you know the dude is a competitor, and to lose it this bad. Man. I wonder if it wouldn't be worth it for the giants to toss some serious money at Rick Peterson when he becomes available, and see what happens when you pair the two up again.

Fight on Barry. Fight on!

Can he do it?

You have to be a very good pitcher to lose 29 games in a season. Barry Zito is not a very good pitcher.

I'd rather have Rags than Rick Peterson.

Honestly, I don't think that there's much any pitching coach can do for Zito right now except maybe try to teach him a new pitch. When he was younger, he had far greater elasticity that gave him superior movement. Now in his 30s (or will be in a few weeks), he no longer can generate the type of movement that once made him dominant.

I don't know... maybe see if he can figure out the knuckleball. He has a consistent, fluid motion with fairly good endurance. Plus it would be cool to see a lefty master the knuckleball--I can't remember there being a good knuckleball lefty since Wilbur Wood.

But Zito's days of being able to beat major league hitters with a 82mph four-seamer and a 12-6 curve with bite are over.

But Zito's days of being able to beat major league hitters with a 82mph four-seamer

There were never any days that Zito beat major league hitters with a 82 mph four seamer

As recently as 2005 his avg fastball was 87 MPH, and he has lost about 1 mph per year since then.

You have to be a very good pitcher to lose 29 games in a season. Barry Zito is not a very good pitcher.

Maybe he's just as good on 2 days rest as he is on 4 days rest. If so, they could get their money's worth out of him as an innings-eater, by having him start 65 games a year.

Are you basing that on a real radar gun or the one that they post in a stadium?

No way that his fastball averaged 87mph in 2005. He seldom topped 85mph the year he was with the Rivercats.

I'm not sure if Zito pitched with the Rivercats in 2005, but if you believe pfx data, this was the velocity on his fastball since 2005 (scroll to bottom of page):

2005: 87.3
2006: 85.8
2007: 84.5
2008: 83.7

"I'd rather have Rags than Rick Peterson."

That makes sense: you'd take a bad pitching coach with a track-record of sucking over a good pitching coach with a track record of success.

That makes sense: you'd take a bad pitching coach with a track-record of sucking over a good pitching coach with a track record of success.

That's the San Francisco way.

According to The Neyer James guide to pitchers, published in 04, his fastball was "high 80's"

The Scouting Notebook for both 04 & 05, (Published by sporting news with Stats Inc) also says high 80's, topping out at 89.

Zito has never had success throwing 82 mph fastballs in his past. He was 5 MPH faster than that during his successful years.

Maybe he's just as good on 2 days rest as he is on 4 days rest.

it would be hard to be worse

you'd take a bad pitching coach with a track-record of sucking

Simply not an accurate assessment.

The Giants are actually a very goo 9-1 when Lincecum or Sanchez starts. The Giants are a pathetic 2-14 when Zito, Cain or Correia starts....

I wonder if Zito has too much pride to accept* a demotion to the PCL? He obviously cannot get the job done in the majors, now. He will make the same money if he pitches for Fresno. Perhaps he can learn to throw the knuckleball; or if it is all a matter of confidence, maybe Zito can get some wins in AAA and get his head right.

*It's my understanding that any player with 5 or more years of major league service time can refuse a demotion. However, it is also my understanding that if the player agrees, any major leaguer can be sent down for as long as it takes to work things out.

thanks for that Leviski. I have fangraphs on my toolbar, and I didn't even know that was there.

actually, rent, shoewizard himself told me about the pfx data on fangraphs recently. so thank him

nothing to see here :)

actually, rent, shoewizard himself told me about the pfx data on fangraphs recently. so thank him

thanks shoewizard

"Simply not an accurate assessment."

Rick Peterson was great with the Oakland A's. I know that.* When the Mets hired Art Howe, they wanted Peterson, too, and paid him big money to come along. Then, when the Mets fired Howe, they kept Peterson. That's his case for success....

What in the world is Righetti's case for success? You mean the great work he did with Joe Nathan? Not enough.... okay, the great work he did with Jeremy Accardo? Or David Aardsma? Or Jerome Williams? Tim Lincecum, so far, has survived Rags, but has Righetti done much for Matt Cain or Brad Hennessy or Kevin Correia or (of course) Barry Zito? I'm not seeing it. I don't see how Rags keeps his job.

* That's not simply based on the great success his pitchers had. Or on the Big 3. It's also based on what pitchers who came in from other organizations said about Peterson.

I wonder if Zito has too much pride to accept* a demotion to the PCL? He obviously cannot get the job done in the majors, now. He will make the same money if he pitches for Fresno. Perhaps he can learn to throw the knuckleball; or if it is all a matter of confidence, maybe Zito can get some wins in AAA and get his head right.

What's the point? I mean, is there seriously any difference between sending Zito down the AAA and just letting him play in the majors? Is it because run support might exist down in AAA?

by the way, using the numbers at Cot's Contracts, and pro-rating what Zito has made so far this season, I calculate that the Giants still owe him a minimum of $112 million going forward from today.

At what point do the Giants consider taking out a contract on Zito's life?

And I just hope and pray that a certain Venezuelan keeps his elbow and shoulder very healthy for the next several years, so Mr. Sabean can retain that distinction.

Ah, I wouldn't worry yet; Zambrano looks terrific in the early going.

Does anyone else think he's hoping the Giants release him so he can tour with Radiohead?

Nah, he wants to tour with Jack Johnson.

Well, the way he's been getting cuffed around of late, he'd be right at home. Oh, I see. Not THAT Jack Johnson.

Perhaps a Mann Act conviction would be less painful than the humiliation he's dealing with these days...

The question for me is whether any GM's will learn a lesson from this, and not give contracts of this length and amount to this quality of a pitcher. Of course, the answer is "No"; there is always some shiny new toy out there that some GM wants, and some way to distinguish this year's bad contract waiting to happen, from all of the others that have been signed in the past.

Re: #57

If you noticed what I quoted, it was clear that I objected to your characterization of Rags, not Peterson.

Early in his tenure, Righetti has gotten some decent seasons out of pitchers who had absolutely nothing (Estes, Reuter, Ortiz, etc.) That he couldn't get anything out of a Jerome Williams or Kurt Ainsworth doesn't really tell us anything. Nathan improved under Righetti, as did Accardo--it's not the pitching coach's fault that Sabean traded away promising young arms.

I'm not sure what the beef is about Hennessey and Correia... both have gotten off to rocky starts this April, but prior to this season have shown steady progress under Righetti. Hennessey has adapted to being a full-time reliever quite well last year (he was a starting pitcher throughout his minor league career). Likewise, Correia has developed into an above-average reliever and is only starting because Lowry got hurt.

Finally, it's beyond premature to criticize Righetti over Matt Cain. In 2006 and 2007 he pitched ~200 innings at the major league level as a 21 and 22 year-old, and is still healthy. That in itself is an achievement (to say nothing of above-average ERA+, including 122 last year). Plus he persevered through a total lack of offensive, defensive, and bullpen support. He's had a disappointing April, but that's just one bad month.

You seem to be putting a lot of weight on four weeks of baseball, which is silly considering that this is Righetti's 9th season as Giants pitching coach. Let's see how the season unfolds before declaring him a disaster on account of Hennessey (13.7 IP), Correia (26 IP), and Matt Cain (27.3 IP). Do you not understand the concept of sample size?

The question for me is whether any GM's will learn a lesson from this, and not give contracts of this length and amount to this quality of a pitcher.

The contract is longer than the median tenure for GMs, a GM may simply roll the dice, if it works great, if not? Well the back end is someone else's problem.

Well, then any owner that approves something like that, with shareholder (or family) money is an idiot (but I suppose there are plenty of those to go around).

I don't think any rational person can look at the Giants and say that Righetti is the problem. Are there better pitching coaches? Surely. But look at the piles of poo that he's been given to work with, and it becomes clear that the problem lies elsewhere.

The contract is longer than the median tenure for GMs, a GM may simply roll the dice, if it works great, if not? Well the back end is someone else's problem.

Asymmetric payoffs are a problem with management in all industries.

Now back to baseball:

I can understand a guy losing a little off the fastball, but what in the name of Frank Tanana happened to Zito's curveball? It's completely gone. Not only is it no longer the 12-to-6 killer it used to be, but it isn't even major league caliber anymore. He throws that borderline embarrassing old-school turnover to righties that he tries to paint the outside corner with but can't command and the rest of his repertoire is either batting practice or a series of balls.

Not sure how serious the suggestions were, but it's going to be tough for him to become Tom Candiotti, what with the wrap-around, cuff motion. There's an awful long way from that to the shot-put style you need to throw a solid knuckler.

Based on what I saw in spring training, he still has a curveball that can dive down almost as much as when he first came up--he just can't control it. In the interest of trying to keep his walks down, he's throwing a very flat (and hittable) curve.

Also, the problem with his fastball isn't so much the loss of velocity, but the loss of movement. I disagree vigorously that he ever consistently threw his fastball in the high 80s in his first few years in the majors--more like low-to-mid 80s. But regardless, it was a below-average (velocity-wise) fastball. Yet what made it an effective weapon against major league hitters was subtle motion that he was able to put on the tail-end of it. If he was throwing harder in his final years in Oakland, then maybe he tried to compensate for the loss of movement with a few mph.

In any event, when he was in Sacramento in 2000, one of the things that set him apart from other young pitchers (other than the curve) is that he seldom threw as hard as he probably could. In clutch situations, he would often slow down his fastball (not a changeup), whereas most young pitchers are apt to overthrow when the intensity increases. From a very young age he seemed to understand how to mix speeds. That he is unable to do this as well at 30 as he did in his early 20s suggests that it's something physical and its unlikely that he'll ever regain the repertoire that originally made him successful.

IIRC; when Zito was with the A's he used to surf the beaches of San Diego in the offseason. If his contract with the Giants forbids such activity, Sabean should offer to renegotiate that part of it.

I disagree vigorously that he ever consistently threw his fastball in the high 80s in his first few years in the majors

Why?

That's simply not my recollection of him. I've seen Zito pitch at least half a dozen times a year since he was in AAA Sacramento--first with the A's and now with the Giants. I can count on one hand the number of times that I've seen him break 90mph. His fastball has always been in the low-to-mid 80's, and he was effective with it because of movement.

If he could control his curveball and regained movement on his fastball, then he could be successful at the velocity that he's throwing at.

if you are going by stadium guns...those aren't always accurate.

That he is unable to do this as well at 30 as he did in his early 20s suggests that it's something physical and its unlikely that he'll ever regain the repertoire that originally made him successful.

Well, if it's physical, it could be fixed by surgery. If I'm SF, I'm certainly HOPING he needs surgery of some sort.

Maybe the Giants could convert Zito to shortstop; he could probably outhit their current ones.

"Low-to-mid 80s" is Moyer and Glavine territory. If Zito had frequently been pumping in fastballs at 83 mph when he was one of the best pitchers in the majors, it would have been widely remarked upon. He may not have been able to hit 90 mph, but I think he was at 87+ consistently.

He's playing badly so that the Giants will drop him and he can return across the bay for a minimum salary for the remainder of his contract!

It'd be interesting to see if he'd be able to at least get by a bit better back in the AL just on account of experience and knowing the hitters from all his years there. If you are forced to try to get by on squat for stuff, I'd think it'd help to have a career's worth of

I'm thinking the other way around, Sam. Zito obviously doesn't have the stuff he used to and the hitters in the AL who have seen his stuff will eat him alive once they realize he doesn't have an out-pitch anymore and will just sit on him until he delivers a fat one.

What do you mean "until"?

Maybe we can trade him to the Cubs. They still need a left-handed batting-practice pitcher, right?