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Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Shaw: Careful what you wish for with replacing Borowski

Why…even the reprehensible mixolydian mode swings of Frank Funk would be an upgrade!

It’s not that the “Joe Must Go” chants weren’t unexpected after Joe Borowski blew the save in Anaheim Monday night in what could only be described as spectacular fashion. Two walks and a grand slam home run to turn a 4-2 lead into a 6-4 loss? A fireworks show after that would’ve been overkill.

You want Borowski replaced immediately? Fine. But by whom?

Rafael Betancourt would be the first option. How’s his April going? Exactly. His outings have been bombs bursting in air, too.

Masa Kobayashi? You gotta give the guy some time to settle in and feel comfortable with his transition to America. Right now, his familiarity is limited to his frequent visits to the wonder that is Wal-Mart.

Nothing in a baseball season is worth evaluating seven games into a season. That includes C.C. Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Travis Hafner, the left field platoon. And, hard as it is to accept, even JoeBo.

If this continues the Indians will replace him. But only when they can feel good about Plan B.

Repoz Posted: April 08, 2008 at 04:08 PM | 20 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
Related News: General, Cleveland

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1. Dan The Mediocre Posted: April 08, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#2734871)

Nothing in a baseball season is worth evaluating seven games into a season. That includes C.C. Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Travis Hafner, the left field platoon. And, hard as it is to accept, even JoeBo.

Can't we use the 2007 season to evaluate Borowski?

2. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: April 08, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2734874)

Nothing in a baseball season is worth evaluating seven games into a season.

That's right, but he also sucked last year. And the Indians had all off-season to come up with a replacement. Instead, they exercised their $4 million option on Borowski (instead of paying him the 250K buyout).

3. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: April 08, 2008 at 04:26 PM (#2734888)

I love the logic here. He says this:

Nothing in a baseball season is worth evaluating seven games into a season.

Three sentences after saying this:

Rafael Betancourt would be the first option. How’s his April going? Exactly. His outings have been bombs bursting in air, too.

Running out of time to meet our deadline and had to scrap having any coherent point to our reactionary blog post, did we?

4. Jimmy P Posted: April 08, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#2734948)

Masa Kobayashi? You gotta give the guy some time to settle in and feel comfortable with his transition to America.

Because Saito needed time, as did Takatsu, as did Sasaki.

5. jmurph Posted: April 08, 2008 at 05:08 PM (#2734983)

Because Saito needed time, as did Takatsu, as did Sasaki.

Okajima, etc. Seriously. It actually seems like the opposite is true- throw the short relievers into the mix immediately, so you can rack up some great innings before the hitters figure them out.

6. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: April 08, 2008 at 05:13 PM (#2734991)

throw the short relievers into the mix immediately, so you can rack up some great innings before the hitters figure them out.

Exactly like Takastu. It took the league about a year to figure him out, but until then, he was great.

7. Steve Posted: April 08, 2008 at 05:15 PM (#2734993)

8. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: April 08, 2008 at 05:19 PM (#2735001)

It occurs to me that the use of Borowski is correct.

The "correct" use of Borowski is the waiver wire. He's awful.

9. Danny Posted: April 08, 2008 at 05:35 PM (#2735039)

It occurs to me that the use of Borowski is correct. Many stats guys say that the best reliever should not be the "closer" just to preserve leads but should come in earlier when the game is really on the line. I think that is how this bullpen was used last year and how it is being planned to use it this year. Borowski is nothing special but it takes nothing special to be a closer. Or, at least, to rack up saves.

"Stats guys" generally want to see the best relievers pitch more in high-leverage situations in the 7th and 8th innings, while pitching fewer low-leverage 9th innings (3 run lead). But 1 and 2 run leads in the 9th inning are still high leverage situations, and closers usually have the highest LI on their teams. For example, here are the pLIs of the Indians bullpen in 2007:

Borowski: 2.33
Betancourt: 1.58
Perez: 1.06
Fultz: 1.03

Borowski's pLI was the second highest in baseball. The top 20 or so were all closers. It might be better to look at gmLI, now that I think about it, but the results are largely the same.

10. scareduck Posted: April 08, 2008 at 05:39 PM (#2735052)

Speaking as an Angels fan, Do not want!

11. deb Posted: April 08, 2008 at 07:19 PM (#2735427)

I am not sure Borowski at this point is any worse than Frankie Rodriguez. I just like the final score of last nite's game. But the efforts were the same, suckieness all around

12. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 08, 2008 at 07:23 PM (#2735446)

It occurs to me that the use of Borowski is correct. Many stats guys say that the best reliever should not be the "closer" just to preserve leads but should come in earlier when the game is really on the line. I think that is how this bullpen was used last year and how it is being planned to use it this year. Borowski is nothing special but it takes nothing special to be a closer. Or, at least, to rack up saves.

This thinking may be incorrect as Danny points out in #9, but I have convinced myself the same thing about how the Cubs are using Kerry Wood as closer. Marmol is better, and Wood closing allows the Cubs to use Marmol as the situation suits them. Howry may also be better, and the Marmol/Howry tandem in the 7th/8th is nice.

At least, this is what I've talked myself into.

13. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: April 08, 2008 at 07:28 PM (#2735462)

I've noticed Trevor Hoffman pitching the ninth in a couple tie games. It hasn't gone well so far, but that's progress. Joe Torre wouldn't dream of sending Mariano Rivera into a tie game.

14. Crispix Attacks Posted: April 08, 2008 at 07:28 PM (#2735463)

At first I thought this article was expressing the thoughts of Jeff Shaw. After all, he was basically the Joe Borowski of 2000-2001, racking up saves for the Dodgers while pitching semi-slightly-above-averagely-but-not-very-good-for-a-reliever. Those guys have to stick together.

Coming next: Doug Glanville: Dodgers management needs to put trust in Pierre

15. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: April 08, 2008 at 08:03 PM (#2735567)

I posted this last year at the end of the season:

highest ERA with >40 saves

1 Joe Borowski 5.07 45 2007
2 Antonio Alfonseca 4.24 45 2000
3 Bobby Jenks 4.00 41 2006
4 Danny Graves 3.95 41 2004
5 Lee Smith 3.88 46 1993
6 Armando Benitez 3.77 43 2001
7 Ugueth Urbina 3.69 41 1999
8 John Wetteland 3.68 43 1999
9 Troy Percival 3.65 42 1998
10 Jeff Shaw 3.62 43 2001

most hits allowed/9 inn with >40 saves

1 Joe Borowski 10.55 45 2007
2 Antonio Alfonseca 10.54 45 2000
3 Danny Graves 10.14 41 2004
4 Jose Mesa 10.13 43 2004
5 Todd Worrell 9.64 44 1996
6 Rod Beck 9.63 51 1998
7 Todd Jones 9.42 42 2000
8 Jose Jimenez 9.33 41 2002
9 John Wetteland 9.14 43 1999
10 Derek Lowe 8.87 42 2000
11 Lee Smith 8.63 47 1991

so Joe has a couple records he can be proud of

16. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: April 08, 2008 at 08:12 PM (#2735592)

Part of the stupid bullpen management book is to use the closer in the 9th inning of a tie game at home. That is precisely, of course, because there can no longer be a save situation. . .

17. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: April 08, 2008 at 08:23 PM (#2735611)

Joe Torre wouldn't dream of sending Mariano Rivera into a tie game.

You mean, except for the 9 times he did so last year? Or the 9 times the year before that? Or....

18. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 08, 2008 at 08:31 PM (#2735626)

Joe Torre wouldn't dream of sending Mariano Rivera into a tie game.

Since becoming the Yankee closer in 1997, Rivera was inserted into 76 tie games (regular season only). Which may be part of the stupid management bullpen book cited above, but Torre did at least dream about doing so.

19. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: April 08, 2008 at 08:32 PM (#2735629)

Ah, thanks for pointing that out. Obviously I must retract my fangs on that; I'm still bent out of shape over that game the Yankees lost to Boston last year (or was it 2006?) in 12 innings when Rivera hadn't pitched for a week and Torre refused to use him...

20. Not The Real Fausto Carmona (Dan Lee) Posted: April 08, 2008 at 09:57 PM (#2735721)

You want Borowski replaced immediately? Fine. But by whom?

Betancourt. Raffy Perez pitches the eighth, Jensen Lewis and Masa Kobayashi split the seventh. Borowski and Jorge Julio pitch the junk innings. And Craig Breslow is the LOOGY.

Okay, that's solved.

On the list of Indians problems that are difficult to solve, this is considerably behind "find corner outfielders who can hit", "figure out what the hell you're going to do with Andy Marte", "keep Mike Aubrey and Adam Miller healthy", and "convince Wedge that sometimes it's a bad idea to blindly stick with struggling veterans".

The other closer option is Miller, if the kid can figure out how to stay healthy.

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Shaw: Careful what you wish for with replacing Borowski

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