Things I fervently hope happen: Joba wins 300 games, multiple Cy Youngs, is more or less the Tom Seaver of this and the following decade, and doesn't get 100% of the HoF vote because "he woulda been betta in the pen!"

by morphing back into a confident, dart-throwing reliever in the postseason...

Huh? He was a reasonably effective middle reliever in the postseason. Sure he had a fist-pump or two, but it's not like he was pumping out 98 mph fastballs and burying guys with 91 mph sliders. Pedro Freaking Feliz took him deep in a game that could have changed the series if Brad Lidge hadn't bailed Joba out.

Because aren’t the 2010 Yanks much better if both Joba and Hughes are in the bullpen? Think about it.

I have. They're not. Next question.

The real problem isn't that one or the other of these guys is going to wind up in the bullpen, it's that he's going to wind up being a one-inning reliever. So when the Yankees eventually need a sixth starter, it will have to be someone further down the depth chart, because Chamberlain/Hughes isn't stretched out.

As long as they have health with their main veteran starters—Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Javier Vazquez—the importance of a No. 5 man dims

I don't understand this line of thinking at all. Do you really want 20% of your starts being made by someone who is likely to be near replacement level? At least the "he'd be better in the 'pen" crowd has some evidence to support that, he has been fantastic in that role. But a great bullpen does not do a lot of good if you're losing 7-2 in the 5th inning.

As long as they have health with their main veteran starters—Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Javier Vazquez—the importance of a No. 5 man dims

The real problem with this line of thinking is that betting on the health and effectiveness of four pitchers simultaneously is stupid.

One thing the Yankees have going for them is very solid rotation depth. Even if one of Hughes or Chamberlain gets shuttled to the bullpen, Gaudin and Mitre are solid, above-replacement backups.

The importance of a #5 starter would dim if you went with a five-day rotation rather than a five-man rotation, but I seriously doubt that the Yankees will do that. Given Pettitte's age and the desire to keep everyone fresh for the stretch run and post-season, I seriously doubt that I'd do it myself.

Words were not needed. Joba Chamberlain's body language screamed confidence and the scoreboard flashed 97 mph. Here at the end of his most taxing season, Chamberlain was a strutting fire-breather again. In the postseason. As a reliever.

The difference from the starter who too often was tentative and too frequently throwing fastballs at 89-91 mph was stark. As one Yankees official noted recently, "It was hard to miss."

Pitchers throw harder when only asked to face one or two batters? I'm shocked.

Gaudin and Mitre are solid, above-replacement backups.

I'm not entirely convinced of this. Gaudin's walk rate and inability to handle LHB make him a disaster waiting to happen in that ballpark, and Mitre's career ERA+ is 78. His 2007 season is one that I think anyone would take from a fifth starter, but I don't think we can assume that he'll get back to that level.

As one Yankees official noted recently, "It was hard to miss."

Pitchers throw harder when only asked to face one or two batters? I'm shocked.

Hey, Yankees officials are paid a lot of money for that kind of insight and analysis.

As long as they have health with their main veteran starters -- Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Javier Vazquez -- the importance of a No. 5 man dims.

The No. 5 competition could be among Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre. The winner probably could pitch to a 5.00 ERA and still win in double digits because of the strength of the Yankees' offense, but also because the No. 5 starter would be backed by a bullpen that had both Chamberlain and Hughes.

"Fifth starter" is not a position. A good starter is better than a bad one. Duh.

Perhaps the Yankees could try leaving Chamberlain in the rotation and then leaving him the eff alone, instead of having him throw 36 pitches every 9 days as a starter.

Joba Chamberlain's body language screamed confidence and the scoreboard flashed 97 mph.

Pitchers throw harder when only asked to face one or two batters? I'm shocked.

And yet, the scoreboard didn't flash 97 very often, even with Joba's post-season dart-throwing reliever confidence. What was his body language screaming when Feliz' line drive landed in the left field stands about six tenths of a second after Chamberlain let go of the ball? Small samples count both ways, don't they?

What was his body language screaming when Feliz' line drive landed in the left field stands about six tenths of a second after Chamberlain let go of the ball? Small samples count both ways, don't they?

No, they only count if they prove the point you want to make silly. For example, Jack Morris was a great post-season pitcher because he threw a 10 inning shutout in the World Series. What about the 1992 World Series? Doesn't count.

Joba is an unhittable reliever, thus Feliz' home run doesn't count.

Both Joba and Hughes can be optioned, and Cashman has said that's a possibility. I don't want either to spend the whole year in the bullpen (afraid they'd stay there permanently), and I think Joba could still benefit from some time starting in AAA.

Yankees have done a good job the last couple years finding cheap bullpen options to bridge to Mo, and I hope they remember that before sticking either in the pen.

I used to be fully behind Joba as a starter, but since the shoulder injury he simply sucks. Before the injury he threw 97-99 in the pen and 94-97 as a starter. That spells ultra dominant reliever or ace-caliber starter.

Now he throws 89-92 in the rotation and 94-97 in the bullpen. That means garbage as a starter or above average as a reliever.

Better an above average reliever than a crappy starter.

of course, if a year removed from his injury he is closer to his old self, give him a chance to start. But the post injury Joba is just a crappy starter.

Give Joba til July in the rotation - if he starts well through then, leave him alone.

Have Hughes start the season in the pen through June, then transition him to the rotation (either with an option to triple A, or a couple of extended relief appearences) for the inevitable pettitte/burnett injury or if chamberlain is struggling by then.

Lets Joba pitch and keeps Hughes inning jump to a reasonable level, and if everything goes well, sets up the yankees with a potential 2011 rotation of Sabathia, Vazquez, Burnett, Chamberlain, Hughes - all fully capable of 200 innings without a massive jump for any, and all readied in 2010 for the role and workload.

Worst case scenario is that chamberlain can't hack it and you tranistion him to the bullpen once and for all - but how the hell do you know if he can't do it before letting him throw a significant chunk of innings without the kinds of restrictions he's had since day 1 in the bigs.

The problem with the Joba nonsense is that stupid idiot sports writers associate this year's precipitous velocity drop with his "becoming a starter." No, ####### idiots, in 2008 as a starter he was throwing mean gas and exploding sliders late into ballgames (check the Red Sox shutout from that summer). The reason he throws 92 now is BECAUSE HE'S HURT!!

Sure, he can dial it up to mid 90s from the pen...but he used to throw 99 as a reliever.

sportswriters are stupid. I doubt most of them even remember that Joba got hurt.

Man, I just watched the video of Joba's 1-0 win at Fenway Park and I got so pumped for baseball season. I could go for a Yankees/Red Sox game right now!

Man, I just watched the video of Joba's 1-0 win at Fenway Park and I got so pumped for baseball season. I could go for a Yankees/Red Sox game right now!

That was such a great ballgame. Much as I disliked the result it had the feeling of a "coming out party" for Joba. With Beckett pitching well that game really was a classic.

No freakin' way that pitch to Lowell was a strike though.

The reason he throws 92 now is BECAUSE HE'S HURT!!

I really don't think it's so cut-and-dry. A pitcher's velocity can vary quite a bit for a variety of reasons - injury, lost mechanics, general fatigue, etc. There was a thread about this a while back, and someone pointed out how Justin Verlander's velocity was down for most of 2008 and jumped back up in 2009 with no specific injury reported. I still think Joba has enough potential to be a better-than-average starter, and I don't think putting up an 90 ERA+ in his first full season as a starter at age 23 is enough of a reason to pull the plug.

aleskel,
No doubt, all that is true. But I think someone from fangraphs made a velocity chart for Joba and the correlation between the drop and the injury is pretty uncanny. What worries me that it was the shoulder, not the elbow. Either the strength will return or it won't...surgery would be a death knell.

I still think Joba has enough potential to be a better-than-average starter, and I don't think putting up an 90 ERA+ in his first full season as a starter at age 23 is enough of a reason to pull the plug.

This. Very, very few starters are dominant, fully formed pitchers in their first full season starting. Or even their first few seasons. Also, it's not like he's a failure if he doesn't become a consistent Cy Young candidate as a starter. I think people have unrealistic expectations of the guy... at the very least, give him a chance to fail as a starter in 2010.

No doubt, all that is true. But I think someone from fangraphs made a velocity chart for Joba and the correlation between the drop and the injury is pretty uncanny. What worries me that it was the shoulder, not the elbow. Either the strength will return or it won't...surgery would be a death knell.

Joba threw harder in EVERY start (pre-injury) in '08 than he did in ANY start in '09. His average velocity fluctuated quite a bit in starts in '09, which does point to the possibility that more than mere arm/shoulder strength is at play (since he was actually pitching quite well before he reached his previous high in innings pitched) but he wasn't the same guy, even when he was effective. Now, whether being another year out from the injury is going to make a difference? I hope so, because '08 Joba was something to see, but who knows.

I don't think putting up an 90 ERA+ in his first full season as a starter at age 23 is enough of a reason to pull the plug.

But we know he was Something Special in the pen!! We've seen it we've seen it we've seen it!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Do you really want 20% of your starts being made by someone who is likely to be near replacement level?

Isn't that the situation for just about every teanm including post season teams? Your typical 5th starter is terrible. In fact, your typical 5th starter is a bunch of guys who are all terrible. There just isn't that much starting pitching to be had.

No freakin' way that pitch to Lowell was a strike though.

Ha! I remember that call. And I remember telling my Sox fan friends the next day that if you don't think Rivera gets that call, you haven't watched Rivera enough.

someone pointed out how Justin Verlander's velocity was down for most of 2008 and jumped back up in 2009 with no specific injury reported.

Don't believe everything you don't read.

A pitcher or hitter not reporting some minor problem is all too often the cause of a "slump", and the facts often don't come out for years, if ever.

Do you really want 20% of your starts being made by someone who is likely to be near replacement level?

Isn't that the situation for just about every teanm including post season teams? Your typical 5th starter is terrible. In fact, your typical 5th starter is a bunch of guys who are all terrible. There just isn't that much starting pitching to be had.

Just because most teams don't have good fifth starters doesn't mean that you choose that situation if you can avoid it. In the Yankees' case, there is "that much starting pitching to be had." Because they have it. All they have to do is decide to use it.

A bad starter is a weakness. Replacing a bad starter with a good one improves the team. That seems elementary.

A bad starter is a weakness. Replacing a bad starter with a good one improves the team. That seems elementary.

A bad reliever is also a weakness. Replacing a bad reliever with a good one also improves a team.

In the case of the Yankees, they have to consider whether the step up from "generic fifth starter" to Joba or Hughes is greater than the step up from "generic middle reliever" to Joba or Hughes. They also have to consider the effect that having three (potentially) shut-down relievers in their bullpen will have on their front-four starters, in terms of their effectiveness across a season (someone like Pettitte or Burnett is likely to be a lot more effective if they can regularly keep him to only 6 IP, rather than expect him to stretch into the 7th or 8th). It's also possible that the increased leveraging provided by having Hughes and Joba in the bullpen may balance out the loss of extra innings that would be provided by having them in the rotation.

Personally, I'd rather the Yankees just stuff either Joba or Hughes into the starting rotation, but I can see reasons why they might decide it's a better use of their resources to keep them in the pen. I just really hope they don't stuff Joba back into the 4 inning starter role.

because '08 Joba was something to see, but who knows.

'08 Joba had the best stuff I've seen from a Yankee starter since . . .I don't even know. And more importantly, the results were matching the stuff, which isn't always the case with young pitchers. Someone mentioned upthread (actually, the previous post from the one I'm quoting) that starting pitchers don't always pull an Athena (i.e. spring into being fully formed), but '08 Joba was damn close to that. I have no idea why the media is so intent on throwing away one of the best talents to start for the Yankees solely because he looked great in 24 relief innings in 2007.

A bad starter is a weakness. Replacing a bad starter with a good one improves the team. That seems elementary.

A bad reliever is also a weakness. Replacing a bad reliever with a good one also improves a team.

A good starter is more valuable than a good reliever. Replacing a bad starter with a good starter improves a team more than replacing a bad reliever with a good reliever.

A good starter is more valuable than a good reliever. Replacing a bad starter with a good starter improves a team more than replacing a bad reliever with a good reliever.

That depends on how big a difference you have between the specific "good" starter and "bad" starter, and the specific "good" reliever and "bad" reliever. It also depends on how much certainly you have as to the expected level of performance of the "good" pitcher in each of the two roles. It also depends on how you intend to deploy that "good" pitcher within the starting and relieving roles.

EDIT: It also depends on whether you intend to heavily restrict the number of innings/pitches you intend to allow the "good" pitcher to throw.

That depends on how big a difference you have between the specific "good" starter and "bad" starter, and the specific "good" reliever and "bad" reliever. It also depends on how much certainly you have as to the expected level of performance of the "good" pitcher in each of the two roles. It also depends on how you intend to deploy that "good" pitcher within the starting and relieving roles.

Rivera, Marte, Robertson should be a more than competent Top 3 in the bullpen. I don't see the gap between Hughes/Joba the reliever and Marte/Robertson being as big as the gap between Hughes/Joba the starter and Mitre/Gaudin.

The importance of a #5 starter would dim if you went with a five-day rotation rather than a five-man rotation, but I seriously doubt that the Yankees will do that. Given Pettitte's age and the desire to keep everyone fresh for the stretch run and post-season, I seriously doubt that I'd do it myself.

I don't think anybody's done that in about 15 years (Braves) so I think we can safely ignore that possibility. (Not that I don't think it's a perfectly good idea.)

I don't think anybody's done that in about 15 years (Braves) so I think we can safely ignore that possibility.

The Jays made some noise about giving it a try a couple years ago, but either an injury or a complaint from a specific pitcher (Ted Lilly is the name that comes to mind) scuttled it fairly quickly.

It also depends on how you intend to deploy that "good" pitcher within the starting and relieving roles.

EDIT: It also depends on whether you intend to heavily restrict the number of innings/pitches you intend to allow the "good" pitcher to throw.

I fully concede that if you use the good starter in a retarded fashion, that limits his value.

What's the downside to having Hughes shadow Joba's starts, with Joba pitching 5 and Hughes pitching 4? Those are enough innings to keep Hughes stretched for if/when he needs to be a full time starter while still keeping his total innings down. Having him in AAA staying stretched is just wasting the quality of his innings. If Joba starts dominating, you can have Hughes shadow Andy, who's going to need a rest at some point in the season.

And with CC and the Hughes/Joba combo in the rotation, that's 40% of starts where the bulpen shouldn't be too taxed.

Having a good fifth starter is completely unnecessary for the Yankees since they would still make the playoffs if I started every fifth game. Even so it is still a good idea to start the season with Joba in the lineup and me on the bench because you have no way of knowing in advance which of your starters is going to be the one who sucks. If you start the season with five good starters then you have a much better chance of ending up with the three or four good starters you need at the end of the season.

If they want to go down this route, I'd like to see them use Joba as a fireman, coming in with the bases loaded with one out in the sixth and using him until Mariano comes in.

Gaelan,
You might be overestimating the Yankees chances. There are three teams who project over 90 wins in the AL East. The Yankees are guaranteed nothing and can't punt games with replacement starters.

They can't punt games with replacement relievers, either. Which is what sending one of Chamberlain/Hughes to AAA so they can start will amount to eventually (if not immediately). The eighth inning may be a huge waste of this much talent, but there is still value added by bumping all of the 2-7 guys in the bullpen down a spot.

The problem comes in when a starter goes down with an injury after either Chamberlain or Hughes has settled into a one-inning relief role. Will they have the guts to move the stud setup guy? Will they have the patience to stretch him out? Probably not. So now you're using a crappy starter anyway, which risks not only punting games, but stressing the bullpen as well. That's why multi-inning relief makes the most sense for the guy who doesn't start. Too bad it won't happen.