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But if he'll come to NY at a price the Mets like, the Yankees will almost ceratinly sign him. Unless you think the Mets go for a huge over bid?
Because the AL worked out for him so well last time. Anyway, the yanks look like they're resigning Damon for that job.
He had one bad month. I don't think an All-star player's ego is so fragile that he thinks he can't hit in the AL.
Damon is most likely being resigned to take Matsui's job (plus some OF when they rest Swisher/new LF).
In any case, the Mets need to use their $20 or 30M to get 4-5 average/above average players, not one super-star.
I'd target Nick Johnson or Russell Branyan, Mike Cameron, Olivo or Benji Molina, Harden/Bedard/Pedro/Sheets.
Of course not. He'll probably stay in StL.
It's just that Holliday to the Mets doesn't make a lot of sense given all their needs and contraints.
Do they not need a 1B, C, RF, a RP, and 2 SPs? Do they have more than $30M or maybe $40M at the outside to spend? Because those seem like real constraints to me.
If your answer is Santos at C, Murphy at 1B, Francoeur in RF, Holliday in LF, and a rotation of Santana/FA/Perez/Pelfrey/Niese, give up hope now, that team doesn't catch Florida, much less Atlanta or Phillie.
I think you're dreaming.
The best I can figure (quickly) is they have about $31.5M coming off the books (Wagner, Delagdo, Schneider, Redding, Tatis). They have $6.75M in contractual increases to Santana, Wright, and Reyes, and are looking at raises to Maine, Feliciano and Francoeur, of a least $5M.
That's $20M to play with. Do you really think the Wilpon's are raising payroll $20-30M after Madoff and the difficulties at Sterling (their commercial real estate company that is the original source of their wealth)?
Just b/c it's true doesn't make it a good idea ;-)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT2R6BFbZ5C_Ww
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT2R6BFbZ5C_Ww
That's only showing 9 players' contracts for 2010.
It shows nothing for Maine/Feliciano/Pelfrey/Pagan/Reed/Green/Francoeur who made about $12M last year, and will make more. It also shows nothing for the other 9 players on the 25 man, who'll make at least $4M if they're all at the minimum, which they won't be.
If you assume $18M total for the arb guys, and $8M to fill out the roster, you get almost exactly the $20M I calculated.
If the Mets are as aggressive as they look like they might be and project the image of a team that will do whatever it takes to land him, the Yankees might back off. I don't think the Yankees want to look like they tried to land Holliday but were outmuscled by the Mets. I don't think it's exactly like the Beltran situation a few years ago, but it's in that same vein, with all the whispers after the fact about how the Yankees never really wanted him even at a reduced price.
That is the wrong way to go, IMHO. It is short-term thinking instead of building the team they need to build. Playing the free agency game by signing mediocre, fungible players has almost never been a route to success; it is, instead, a route to making the MLBPA happy because it ends up creating the rising tide that lifts all the boats for the averageish players.
Yes, the Mets have a lot of holes to fill. That doesn't mean they should be foolishly trying to fill them all with the available $$$. It means they should be recognizing that it isn't a one-year project, and act accordingly. Fill the ones they can, gradually, with the right players as they become available through whatever channels present themselves. If you can get the guys you need at two of the positions this year via free agency, in a year when your draft pick is protected, then do it. Fill the other holes with reclamation projects or holdovers, even if you know they are sub-standard and intend to attack those problems later.
If they do it Snapper's way, they will be signing 4-5 players for mid-sized deals, and they'll be around for 2-3 years even though it's likely a good number of them won't really be all that helpful or useful in getting the team where it needs to go. I'm not that high on what 2010 has to offer that I want to burn the available budget for that purpose.
You can believe what you would like, but the Mets won't be going after the Hollidays, Hallidays, Lackeys and Bays of the world (or will only be doing so to satiate the press/fanbase but won't have any real intention of signing same unless one falls to them at a below market rate-- what are the odds of that?)
Oh ok, never mind.
All wishcasting aside, what's the story on Beltran? I thought I heard some whining about him last year- any chance he gets moved for a decent return?
EDIT- Sam's 26 makes me even more hopeful. If the Mets are looking past next year (which I'm sure they'd never admit publicly) moving Beltran might make some sense.
I'll just assume its general snarkiness.
Well Sam, my plan is to go for short deals; I don't think any of the guys I mention are getting more than 1-2 years.
In any case, the Mets likely have only a 2 year window with this core. Beltran and Reyes are only signed through 2011.
I think they have to persue a high risk strategy with FAs in the short term, while investing in the farm for longer term solutions (of course they're going to have to start spending some money on bonuses for the 2nd part to work).
I don't think they can take your patient approach with an expensive core, and no MLB ready prospects.
My guess is that this is correct.
BUT, you have to factor in two things, which are:
1. Wilpon still has the same hard on for "meaningful games"
2. Omar might be trying to save his job.
The Mets went through something fairly similar in 2001: the team was coming off a disappointing year, had made a few trade deadline moves that indicated a rebuilding or at least "re-tooling" philosophy, and it was clear to all that the good team of 99/00 that Phillips had created was old enough that it wasn't going win again. The word was that the Mets would not be adding much salary. And then Phillips landed the coup that was the Robbie Alomar trade, and suddenly the whole organization was ready for one last shot at the title, which precipitated all of the other crazy moves that were made.
Omar might have something splashy planned, and while Wilpon's impulse might be to be skeptical or cautious, history shows that he can easily be persuaded to get nutty on the player acquisition side.
And what, pray tell, makes you believe F-Mart is ready to take over? Would that be his well-documented durability? Or perhaps his scintillating performance after being called up to the big club during the '09 <strike>season</strike> debacle?
I love me some F-Mart, don't get me wrong. But he ain't ready. He's young, he's talented, he's part of the future. But 2010 isn't his time. If I thought he would benefit from taking his lumps and learning on the job, I'd say fine -- let him take over in LF and we'll all suffer in the short term but reap the rewards later. But I think it's clear that he can still learn a lot from another season (or part thereof) in Buffalo.
Last point: if you trade Beltran now, you're selling low, with him coming off the injury. I wouldn't say absolutely not, depending on what the Mets were offered. But under the circumstances, I can't believe it would be a deal that would be worth doing.
The use of "gritty" and "scrappy" are usually dead giveaways.
1B Russ Branyan or Nick Johnson 2/10M
C M. Oliva or B. Moilina 1/3
LF M. Cameron 1/7
SP R. Harden or E. Bedard 1/10 or 2/18
SP Penny/Pineiro/Garland type 1/6
I'd non-tender Francoeur, and let Pagan play RF, giving me a very good defensive OF, and hope that helps the SP.
But they have a lot of injured players coming off the books, so they need to replace those guys.
It's more that we rightfully discount anonymous "sources" from actual credentialed columnists, so "on good authority" from random internet posters - giving us anonymity squared - gets a proportional amount of grains of salt.
Agree on the latter. On the former, I think the Mets will be very good if Wright/Beltran/Reyes/Santana/K-Rod return to career norms, and there's reason for optimism that they will. I think if they don't, it doesn't really matter who they add from the FA market, be it Holliday, Lackey, Bay, or lesser parts.
So it isn't that they can't be good next year. It's that it is almost completely out of their hands.
Even if all the big 5 come back completely to normal production, I don't think you can compete with Phillie and Atlanta running out Francoeur/Pagan/Murphy/Santos as half of your lineup, and Maine/Pelfrey/Perez/Niese as your 2-5 SPs.
That's just too many holes. They need at least 2 bats and 1-2 SPs.
He should do this professionally.
But what's the chance of that?
And I'm not even sure if that's true, by the way. They still have the late 90s Mariners problem: great stars, mediocre team. The team is an absolute joke at a number of positions and the entire pitching staff is a question mark. All five of those guys could kill it next year and the Mets might win 88 games.
I don't think it's accurate to project all of those hitters to stink. Let's look at the team as currently constructed and we'll take the better of their 08 or 09 OPS+ to form a ceiling for what might be expected.
OPS+
Beltran - 143
Wright - 141
Murphy - 129
Pagan - 119
Reyes - 118
Castillo - 98
Francoeur - 92
Santos - 82
That's pretty close to a wash with what the Phillies did offensively in 2009, when their top 8 players each got at least 500 ABs. Now, how likely is it that the Mets get these numbers, or something relatively close? We started with the assumption that Beltran, Wright and Reyes would be back 100 percent. But what about the other five?
Murphy and Pagan are obviously the big question marks. Murphy's OPS came from 2008 in 131 ABs when he posted an .871 OPS. On the surface it seems preposterous to suggest that he can come anywhere remotely close to that next year. But in his final 69 games (252 ABs) he had an .825 OPS.
Pagan's OPS came last year, the first time in his career he received more than 170 ABs.
Prior to his injury-plagued 2008, Castillo's OPS+ numbers were: 94, 91, 108, 93. I don't think it's any stretch to expect a repeat of 2009 numbers.
Francoeur's OPS was his full-season 2009 mark -- the lousy time with the Braves and the exceeding expectations part with the Mets. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect an OPS+ in the neighborhood of 90 from him.
Santos probably would struggle to match 2009 over a full season. Hopefully Josh Thole gets a chance.
So, how close can Murphy and Pagan come to those numbers over a full season? Because what you project from those two should dictate your off-season priorities. I think they can both produce in the vicinity of an 800 OPS, which means you can live with them.
I think the team's top priority should be pitching, specifically John Lackey. Santana and Lackey to front the rotation and hopefully the others pitch well enough to be competitive in their games.
However, I am more than okay with cutting Francoeur and going after Holliday or Carl Crawford.
Uhh
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
Beltran - 143
Wright - 141
Murphy - 129
Pagan - 119
Reyes - 118
Castillo - 98
Francoeur - 92
Santos - 82
Those numbers for Murphy and Pagan are based on SSS fluke and completely out of context with the rest of their careers. No one would project them anywhere near that.
I can't for the life of me imagine what comment you are referring to.
This is a useful summation of possibilities, a reminder for the shellshocked there's serious upside, and makes it clear how extremely unfortunate it is that if the OF is upgraded the most obvious hole, Francoeur, is going to start at the expense of Angel Pagan. If the Mets want to compete in 2010 your list suggests that replacing the weakest two positions in addition to adding an excellent hitter at 1b or LF, depending on your evaluation of Murphy and Pagain going forward, is the way to go.
Doing the same with the pitching staff:
Pitcher - ERA+
Santana - 166
Pelfrey - 113
Maine - 101
Perez - 100
Figeueroa - 100
To take advantage of the two years left with the current core I'd first add the best LFer or RFer I could find. This combines optimizing both the short and long term approaches. Holliday, for instance, is the single addition that gives the Mets both the best shot at competing in 2010 and at assembling an excellent core that will persist past 2011. The biggest market teams, barring extraordinarily bad luck, should always have a core of true stars to build around. Next, I would add two pitchers with upsides north of 120 ERA+, or one gamble such as that and as solid a 3 or 4 as I could find. I'm willing to take flyers since Lackey at something like 5/85 doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
All in all, I'd aim for 92 wins and risk 75 rather than lock myself in with a lot of mid-level signings likely to generate 85 to 88 wins.
I don't expect the Wilpons to see things my way but going cheap by 10-20m in a key year on acquisitions in a billion dollar business is very poor business indeed.
I'd much rather just have Bradley.
1) Reyes
2) Hudson/Polanco/DeRosa
3) Wright
4) Beltran
5) Vlad/Dye
6) Overbay (I'd hit him second, but obviously the second baseman has to go there)
7) Francoeur
8) New Catcher Please, TYIA
If you have to settle for Vlad or Dye in the outfield, that's a pretty huge defensive downgrade, though. My understanding is that Vlad's a DH now, and if you believe defensive statistics, Dye should be too.
Sorry, wrong. The Yankees have no budget and will not 'back off' anyone they are interested in. You might, possibly, outbid them or something but there is no 'backing off' the team with functionally unlimited resources.
What's the advantage for the Jays? Turning a one-year, $7M commitment for a 1B into a 2 year, $20M commitment for a DH?
I'd posit tormenting you as one possibility. Then, you make it your life's mission to finally buckle down, make seven or eight hundred million dollars, buy the Jays, and use your considerable fortune to return them to prominence.
With the way the last season has gone, I'm beginning to suspect that tormenting me is their only goal.
I'm working on it. It might be a couple years before my elaborate scheme finally comes to fruition.
With all due respect, are you frigging crazy???
This is the Mets. Need I remind what happens when the Mets play with fire? They get burned.
Oh, screw that. The Mets get burned even when they don't play with fire.
This isn't playing with fire. It's playing with a nuclear power plant (with a cracked containment building, I might add) and a franchise that is located on the MLB equivalent of the San Andreas Fault.
If you care at all about Milton Bradley, you don't want to bring him to this mess. If you care about the Mets, you don't want to bring Milton Bradley into our cauldron.
I mean, geez. 2009 didn't bring enough despair to suit you?
EDIT:
I'm working on it. It might be a couple years before my elaborate scheme finally comes to fruition.
Ryan, meet Bernie Madoff. Bernie, I'd like to introduce you to Ryan. You two really need to talk.
I can kick in a few hundred, if that helps at all. But I expect to be named... I dunno, Vice President of Player Personnel or something. Whatever gives me the authority to ban the fake umpires from Skydome premises and to make shirtless rants to our AA team.
As for Overbay for Bradley. Well, next year it's just 3 million dollars extra. It's possible they think it's a good buy low opportunity. Get Bradley away from Chicago, DH him, keep him relatively happy and sane, and he might go back to being the... actually, I can't finish that sentence, as I expected his track record to be better when I pulled it up on bbref. But then you move someone (Lind/Snider) to first, upgrade your outfield defense when you replace them with someone else, and at the very least, you've guaranteed your team five covers of the Toronto Sun when Bradley inevitably melts down. They just won't be able to resist the puns. At the very least, I'd now guess that AA wants Overbay out of Toronto, for whatever reason.
Vlad in the OF is ridiculous.
Dye is the kind of signing the Mets should make if they have no real interest in contending but want to bring in a "name". He's been a weak hitter for the position two of the last three years and he'll be 36.
Are you crazy? I can't be seen talking to that guy! That'll get the CRA on my ass, and I really don't need those guys looking into my PERFECTLY LEGAL BUSINESS ARRANGEMENTS. You hear that CRA? PERFECTLY LEGAL!
Dude, if I ever buy the team, everyone in the organization is going to have the authority to make shirtless rants to the AA team. In fact, it'll be a mandatory part of your employment contract.
The problem is that it's not just $3M extra next year. It's $3M extra next year, followed by $12M extra in 2011 (assuming that the 2012 year hasn't returned to being a club option based on DL time). All for the privilege of playing an injury prone lunatic at DH.
Well, but aside from that what's so bad about it? Look at it this way: it's positively brilliant compared to the Cubs signing him for three years, and expecting the injury prone lunatic to be able to play the OF. I know that when I'm contemplating what the Mets might do next, I always try to ask myself, "Is it smarter than the Cubs?" That's good enough for me.
#47 sums up my feelings on the 2010 Mets pretty well, with the added note that I don't think John Maine is ever going to throw 200 IP in a year.
Why not? He was awful in 2009, and he's apt to be awful again in 2010. Don't be fooled by the 98 OPS+, which seems kind of OK for a middle infielder, and kind of reboundy from the 77 of the year before (not to mention staying healthy for more than 200 additional PAs). His defense was so bad he was one of the worst second basemen in the league. I fully expect him to be that again, and would be thrilled if the Mets could flip him for Overbay.
My Milton is not an injury prone lunatic. He may be a DH, an idiot, injury prone, a lunatic, but he is not a porn star!
For some reason (Halladay) I thought that the Jays had a decent amount of money cominng off the books for 2011. A trip to Cot's reminded me of Vernon Wells' upcoming 10.5 million dollar raise. I swear, I don't drink, but the Halladay/Rios/Wells fiascos might have me reaching for the absynthe.
C M. Oliva or B. Moilina 1/3
LF M. Cameron 1/7
SP R. Harden or E. Bedard 1/10 or 2/18
SP Penny/Pineiro/Garland type 1/6
and not one of those players would even consider signing those contracts. Lohse got 4 year 41 mil last off season, no way Pineiro expects around 6mil or a one year contract. Bengi Molina for 3mil? it may make sense to you, but a gold glove caliber catcher automatically makes more than that, factor in his power (20 hr, 80 rbi, regardless of his true offensive value, and you are looking at a guy who is going to get around 7+ mil)
and Harden or Bedard signing those contracts is just plain out there. Even with a down economy, these guys will expect and will get better money than you have here.
With all the other weirdness around him, it wouldn't surprise me to find out that he's also a porn star.
It's best if you don't think about that Vernon contract. It does nothing but angry up the blood.
I don't know whether to blame JP or Godfrey for it, but both deserve a savage beating.
1. Holliday is a must. He makes sense short and long term.
2. First base needs to be upgraded. I love the idea of Overbay as a stopgap. He hit .282/.396/.509 against righties, but only .190/.256/.278 against lefties in 2009 so pairing him with Tatis makes all kinds of sense. Chris Carter, and Murphy can be the insurance down in AAA with Davies waiting in the wings.
3. If Castillo is traded, then sign Orlando Hudson to a one or two year deal. If the above trade doesn't happen, look for a cheap 1b (Nick Johnson, LaRoche, Delgado, Glaus, etc) and obviously hope Luis keeps hitting.
4. Francouer will be the starter on Opening Day, but hopefully Fernando stays healthy and puts some pressure down at AAA.
5. If 1b, LF and 2b are upgraded, I'm good with taking a flier at catcher with someone cheap with the understanding that Thole should get a chance at some point during the season.
6. For good or bad, we are stuck with Pelfrey and Perez, and between Maine and Niese, we should have a fifth starter, but we absolutely need an innings eater behind Santana. I'd love to take a chance on Bedard/Harden, but given the complete uncertainty of the other spots in the rotation plus the Mets' lack of competence when dealing with injuries, I'd stay away from those two.
1. Reyes ss
2. Hudson 2b
3. Holliday lf
4. Beltran cf
5. Wright 3b
6. Overbay 1b
7. Francouer rf
8. Santos/Thole c
1. Santana
2. ???
3. Pelfrey
4. Perez
5. Maine/Niese
Mike Pelfrey just died a little inside.
What is this sentence supposed to say?
EDIT: Maybe an age cutoff?
2. ???
3. Pelfrey
4. Perez
5. Maine/Niese
I'd roll the dice with either Harden or Bedard. (Of course, the goal should be Halladay.)
But Pineiro would be an excellent pickup as well. We'd have to find a glove 2Bman though.
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