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Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Sherman: TEIXEIRA PERFECT FIT FOR BOMBERS (RR)
2. Teixeira has a mixed reputation. He has much in common with A-Rod. He is diligent about staying in shape year-round, is durable and works hard on all facets of his game. But his detractors - and there are more than a few - say that, like A-Rod, Teixeira is an accumulator who feasts on bad pitching, does his best work when his team is way ahead or behind, and is a corporation unto himself who does not mesh seamlessly with the clubhouse culture. Essentially the overall numbers are better than the total package.
“The statistics will be there, but this is not a player who will make anyone else on the team better,” said a former teammate of Teixeira’s. “The numbers indicate an elite player, but if you watch him every day you will realize he is a very good player, not elite.”
Thanks to Dave Sells Everything.
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Well, he seemed to do OK against the Red Sox pitching. I think the Angels will try to keep him.
Looked pretty elite to me. Only one rbi and no extrabase hits, but he hit .467 with a .550 OBP for the series. Angels need more like him, not less.
And this all came in a series where neither team was ever way ahead or way behind. Nice glove too, he momentarily saved the Angel season on the Kotsay lineout.
I wasn't happy losing Kotchman in the trade, but Tex has made a believer out of me. If the Angels hold on to Tex, one of these years they are going to get back to the World Series.
And every one of his hits were singles. I can imagine the eruption from Mt. Steinbrenner after a postseason like that from him.
How lazy a journalist do you have to be to write these statements, but not look up the actual numbers? Basically, Mark Teixeira eats by himself in the lunchroom; therefore, he's a bad baseball player. Maybe it's ex-Brave-itis. Just say, "I don't like Mark Teixeira" if you don't like him.
Thanks to B-Ref PI, one can see that the pitchers Teixeira has hit best over 20+ PAs include Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte, Mark Mulder, Jon Garland, Felix Hernandez, Tim Hudson, John Lackey, Roy Oswalt ... presumably an actual analysis of good pitcher / bad pitcher splits might show that Teixeira was unduly prone to hit good pitchers poorly. But just on the face of it, I gotta call nonsense.
In terms of doing his best work when his team is way ahead or behind, it is true that Teixeira's OPS in >4-run games either way is .952 and it's only .912 when the game is within 4 runs. That's the inverse of David Ortiz (.889 vs. .954). Still, if you've got a player out there who puts up a .912 OPS in close games, I think your team can survive the horrid differential, particularly if he helps you to some blowout wins along the way too. Teixeira is 19th among active players in OPS. His close-game self would be 21st.
Shouldn't be too hard to find statistical evidence to back up this claim about Teix or A-Rod, but I am too lazy to do so. Anyone?
Is he worth the lost picks (yes I know the Yanks have 2 guaranteed early picks), given that this team needs to get younger in a hurry? Maybe.
The Yankees should also get a few picks for the FA's they let go.
And the fact that he's a better hitter and the fact that he's a much better fielder. Two wins at least.
Is he worth the lost picks (yes I know the Yanks have 2 guaranteed early picks), given that this team needs to get younger in a hurry?
Easily. This team doesn't need to get younger in a hurry, they need to get better, not younger. They have no help coming at the corners until Montero shows up. Tex will be all of 29 next year, making him the second youngest (third if the start the Melky/Gardner monster in CF) position player on the Yanks so getting him does make them younger. He switch hits, plays good D, is under 30, fills a position they desperately need to fill and is available to the highest bidder. Seems like a perfect fit for the Yankees.
Next revelation: Pitchers do their best work in pitchers' duels.
Trade P Hughes for Prince Fielder
then
Sign CC to a 6/$160
or
Sign Tex for 7/$150
keep Hughes
Which is better Yanks fans? You can't answer "Both" CC and Tex.
Prince Fielder is not worth Phil Hughes.
keep Hughes
This one, without thinking.
And what SJ said.
Reading the comments, one would think Phil Hughes had a better season than Jon Lester...
You're right Levski, it's always best to sell low on a young player. Look at how well it worked for the D-Backs when they pulled the trigger on Carlos Quentin.
Why not? The Yankees certainly have the money and the need for both.
Anyway, playing by your rules, I would much rather sign Tex. I like CC more, but I have almost zero interest in Fielder. If the Yankees didn't already have Matsui and a bunch of old guys that will need some PA at DH, I'd feel differently. But I'm not going to pretend that Fielder is a 1B, because what he does out there cannot be called playing defense.
Not to go BeanoCook, but I guarantee Tex nearly doubles that (say 7-8 years @ $20M). I think every team besides the Marlins would sign Tex at your price.
I agree, but 5 * 16 million is probably not even half of what Teixiera ends up signing for. He's going to sign for an amount that makes every think the team overpaid, and by next offseason it will seem like no big deal.
Remember when all the rumors had Soriano going for 75-90 million, it was deemed too much for a player of his caliber, and he gets 136 million?
He would be a perfect fit for almost any team.
And this is somehow Tex's fault?
The plan that makes the most sense is for the Yankees to sign Tex and make a play for Derek Lowe. Penciling in 30 HR's and 100 RBI's and a .400 OBP into your lineup, and replacing Giambi's defense with Teixeira's would seem to make the team better. Call it a hunch. This allows you to also keep Matsui at DH, and put Damon in LF and find a better option defensively for CF - possibly by trade.
Trading Hughes for Fielder, a horrible defender who hacks at everything would be absurd. Whether Hughes amounts to anything or not - and I think he will - it's a bad idea for anyone to trade for Fielder.
Also, I will be flat out stunned if the Yankees don't deal Damon this winter. This is exactly the kind of thing they signed Cashman to do.
Do Red Sox fans still expect this? It made sense before, but with Bay they have all four corners covered, and they have Lars Anderson coming up, who admittedly looks like a stud.
I think writers are underestimating the Red Sox in the CC sweepstakes, but I just don't see them getting involved on Tex anymore.
Re: CC. I'd give him anything he demands. The Tigers should make sure they get him.
wha?
I wouldn't trade any of the young players for him. And I wouldn't do this if I was the Yanks, the Mariners, anyone.
I'd be surprised if Teixeira gets any less than 7 years/$155M.
Player B...276 .372 .507
Why not keep Hughes and resign Jason Giambi (player A)? And he did that against AL pitching.
This is not the best example. Well, it does prove your point that it's tough to predict how much guys will make as FAs, but how many teams would take Soriano's contract off of the Cubs hands? My guess is zero.
Fielder has been good once out of three years and he hardly addresses the Yanks' needs. He's in lousy shape and he can't play defense. He's a DH on a team that has at least one and maybe three. He is not at all the kind of player the Yanks need to bet on for their future and he's certainly not the kind of guy you trade a player who is major league ready and has the potential to be an impact player in the Majors, especially when you're in the position the Yanks are in now. To the Yankees, Hughes is still worth as much as he was last year or the year before. So he's worth more to them than he is to other teams, which is fine, I think standing pat is a good gamble to take. But he's still worth more to the Yankees than Fielder, even if Fielder is worth more in a vacuum
And let's not get started on "he's only 22" again. Melky Cabrera is young too...
Ok, I won't mention his age if you acknowledge that Hughes' ceiling and potential absolutely blow away what Melky's ceiling and potential were.
Unless it's the Yankees making that deal (because they can afford it to an extent that even other rich team's can't), that will immediately become the worst contract in baseball.
I almost want to call that picture NSFW, except in actuality it's relatively innocent.
Unlike Melky, Hughes was actually considered a top prospect. Hughes is a lot more like Quentin than he is, say Alberto Callaspo.
And to be clear, I don't think he's as valuable as he was last season (and definitely not as valuable as he was in 2006). I'm fine with trading him, but I'd like to get someone back that addresses an actual need, rather than someone who looks as likely to have open heart surgery in a couple years as win an MVP.
People keep saying this, but MLB attendance was down a percent over last year and we really haven't hit the worst of whatever economic downturn has to unfold yet.
EDIT: Alright, so Player B is Fielder. I would take Hughes + Giambi over Fielder + CC, but it's awfully, awfully close.
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Well yeah, but Player B is Prince Fielder, who is also a butcher defensively, and I think is nearly as much an injury risk as Giambi.
Texiera actually went .308/.410/.552
Player B isn't Tex, it's Fielder.
Touchee. I'll spot you Zito.
Well, why is that the question? Why not Hughes and CC and Giambi?
Why invent either/or's which do not matter?
The grammar may not be correct, but the 1996 Arizona Fall League statistics bear this to be true. Sadly.
Incidentally, I don't really want the Yankees to bring Giambi back. I think there's a really good chance this was his last hoorah season.
If they think Lowell is done, they will go after Teixeira. If they think he'll be back 100% after surgery, they won't.
That's pretty much all there is to it for me.
What else is the man supposed to do, cripes.
SHERMAN: Essentially the overall numbers are better than the total package
If anything that is 100% the opposite. To me, the reason Teixera is elite is that he gives you the big 1b bat (150 OPS+ the last two years at ages 26, 27.. career OPS+ of 135) but then goes beyond that by giving you the defensive and baserunning contributions you rarely find in 1b-men.
Seriously. Phil Hughes by himself will not get the Yankees Feilder, Morneau, or really any other young stud they might have their eye on. Start by adding Austin Jackson and season the rest of the deal appropriately. (Of course the Yankees won't do this, and I'm not suggesting they would, but other people should consider that Hughes doesn't have the same value he used to, and won't bring as much back in trade.)
Yes, his children should be taken away.
Right. His poor year here savaged his value on the market - another team would be really stupid to deal a good player for him straight-up.
But his value to the Yankees is nearly as high as it was. They shouldn't sell low.
All this goes to that Hughes is unlikely to be dealt this year. Well, duh.
And I think Prince Fielder is not a "young stud."
To be clear here, Lester is a much better property than Hughes in virtually every way. You'd have to be an idiot to prefer Hughes to him.
So I'm an idiot. Hughes may never have the year that Lester had in 2008. If the Red Sox lost their minds and tried to trade Lester for Hughes straight up, I'd want my Yankees to take it. But I like our guy; I'm glad we still have him. And I'd like to see him have great success and be an all-time great pitcher.
Done.
Phil Hughes by himself will not get the Yankees Feilder, Morneau, or really any other young stud they might have their eye on.
The Yanks would be silly to trade Hughes for anything right now. His perceived value is low and his ceiling is still there. I know other people have said this, but some of them said it before you posted it, so I thought I'd repeat just to be safe.
Fielder is a guy who put up a 128 OPS+ with lousy defense and baserunning at first base last year as a 24 year old. That is not a young stud. Justin Morneau was pretty good last year. Of course, he was also 27, so he is not a young stud either. First basemen with limited talented who aren't one of the best hitters in the league and/or don't bring great defense, they have severe limits on their value. Morneau and Fielder are nice players who will occasionally be All-Stars. In a down year for the position, they might even be a top 5 first baseman. But I don't think young stud applies to either of them. Thanks to their service time and gaudy RBI numbers, they're not even likely to be much of a bargain in terms of salary soon.
Start by adding Austin Jackson and season the rest of the deal appropriately.
I wouldn't trade Jackson for either of those guys either.
In the sense that Fielder weighs more than a thoroughbred stallion, he could be compared to a "young stud".
Really?
Yanks 2009 FA class:
Ivan Rodriguez (37)
Jason Giambi (38) - $22MM club option for '09 with a $5MM buyout
Bobby Abreu (35)
Mike Mussina (40)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Sidney Ponson (32)
Will they risk offering Arb to IRod, Abreu, and Giambi? I think Abreu and Giambi would jump on it. Maybe Irod, too.
Mussina seems safe to come back for a 3 yr deal or retire or reject arb for a 3yr deal elsewhere, so there's a compensation pick there.
Pettitte and Ponson? No idea.
Basically, It doesn't look like any sort of sure thing for the Yanks to grab any compensation picks, though I could be wrong.
Abreu gets offered arb, for sure. He will decline it and get a 2 or 3 year deal somewhere.
I guarantee that Abreu will not accept arbitration. He'll get a 2-3 year deal somewhere.
I don't know if they'd risk arbitration with Giambi, but since he'll be a type B another team may sign him before the deadline anyway (my money's on the A's).
Damaso Marte is also a type A, and I would rather go through arbitration than pick up his $6M option. And considering how overvalued he is, I bet some team would end up signing him.
Of the three, I think the most likely to reject Arb would be Abreu, as he's still got a broad base of talent, and is the youngest of the bunch.
Pettitte will play for the Yankees or retire. There's no pick to be had there.
There's no way that anyone would risk grabbing Ponson before the Yankees make an arb decision, so there's no pick to be had here either.
I'm genuinely curious, why do people keep saying this about Abreu? Have you looked at his numbers?
What about Giambi and IRod?
As for Giambi, a rebound season, second in the team in HRs, belted more than 30, etc. I bet he gets two years somewhere.
Pudge is a total mystery to me. The Yankees offering/not offering, him accepting/not accepting, getting a multi-year deal/having to settle for a spring-training invite. None of those things would surprise. I'm really curious to see what emerges.
Oh, I fully acknowledge Tex's superiority over Giambi (with D maybe 3 wins then), which you would have noticed if your reading comprehension was up to snuff. (Going forward certainly Tex will be better-Giambi has to go.) But as hitters at least they have been pretty close, unless you wish to fall into the fallacy that Tex's career year is now his established baseline going forward. My point is that many here see him as a savior, while I see him as a spare part propping up the teetering edifice, unlikely to offset age-related losses elsewhere.
I'm 99.9999999999% certain he's not even a type B, so it doesn't matter when any team signs him. Regardless, I'd be surprised if he gets any more than a minor league deal and an invite to ST.
Last three years, most recent to furthest in the past, OPS+
Giambi: 130, 118, 148
Teixeira: 153, 150, 126
What career year are you talking about?
Fielder, a horrible defender who hacks at everything
Prince Fielder drew more walks this year than anyone on the Yankees.
Fielder has his limitations, but he's a surprisingly durable player with a higher career OPS+ than Kevin Youkilis or Derrek Lee, despite the fact that he's a full year younger than the likely NL Rookie of the Year. The concerns about his weight are real, but he's still a very valuable property.
ugh ... that per-year salary is nice, but I don't want him for 3 years if his defense remains as eye-gougingly bad as it was this year. The Yankees have already made the mistake of holding on to too many DHs at once.
It won't be the price. Given his counting stats, I can't see him getting less than 3/$30, and probably closer to 3/$36. If he was only offered 3/$21, he may as well take arbitration, ding the Yankees for about $12M there, and then take another stab at free agency next year.
I mean, for God's sake, when you put Prince Fielder into Google image search, this is the first thing that comes up.
And one year later Cabrera is a 1B coming off of his worst offensive season since his first full year. Though, in his defense, I guess he lost some weight. I'm not going to say he will or won't get better, but these are the facts.
Incredible. And hilarious.
I'd be floored if he would turn down arb in search of a 3/24 contract. He made $16 million with the Yankees this past season and had a fine year at the plate. I don't see him getting less than that $16 million in arb for next year.
If New York offers arbitration they had better be sure they are fine with another year of Abreu.
Jose Guillen got 13 mil a year for three years from the Royals. He doesn't have Abreu's track record, he's a noted clubhouse problem and it was the freakin Royals. Abreu will get at least 3/36, and probably go over 3/40.
Not that Abreu should take it.
All valid points, though regarding his defense, I'm not sure that it declined so much as Detroit just recognized that he was/is a butcher with the glove. Offensively, he's an interesting case. His ISO remained the same as 2007, his contact rate went up slightly, his BABIP dropped 50 points, and he lost 40 BB's. Definitely his worst offensive season. Are the reasons for the decline related to his weight? I'm not so sure.
With plenty of acreage.
Best Regards
John
Oddly enough both HR champions this year (Howard and Cabrera) had distinct off-seasons. A measure of how good they were to start with, of course ...
wow, I didn't even realize Cabrera won the HR crown. I thought Quentin and ARod were both ahead. Shows what happens when you stop paying attention mid-September.
Seems like there's a bit of a double standard here.
Well, they are different bodies, and they play different positions.
Both are the same weight. Only Prince is 5'10" and CC is 6'7".
CC, on the other hand, is a fatass but has been the same fatass for a while now. Now maybe Prince has maxed out, but I'm not sure of that.
Concur. The 3/21 references are absolute pipe dreams.
I want a stat that measures bounciness of manboobs during a home run trot.
Prince's old man was encased, walrus-like, by jiggling rolls of fat. Back in the 80s, Steve Balboni and Joey Meyer were both awfully fat by professional athlete standards as well. Balboni looked like he belonged in a sauce-stained guinea tee, slapping his wife around on the Lifetime channel. Meyer was just a big flabby guy who appeared to be composed primarily of cellulite.
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