My suspicion is that every time Cameron comes up in a big spot from the sixth inning on, he will be fed righty relievers that will overwhelm him. I can see Boston’s Justin Masterson as Cameron’s personal nightmare.

So...it will have taken MLB managers 15 years to come up with this strategy against Mike Cameron? Huh. Go figure.

So...it will have taken MLB managers 15 years to come up with this strategy against Mike Cameron? Huh. Go figure.

Someone with (1) more time and (2) better access to the data will be able to confirm or refute, but I'd guess than Cameron's "late and close" splits and his "power pitcher" split are reflective of exactly that - managers having figured out that when the game situation dictates, you insert a RH, SO pitcher. L&C;, his SO rate increases from 23% in all other situations to 28%, and his OPS+ from >100 to 76. I'd assume this is a combination of him going against better relievers who are disproportionately RH, SO pitchers and he does disproportionately worse against them. I haven't done the analysis, but I assume that one could compare these numbers across all starters; Cameron's look to be worse than average. My guess is that Sherman is probably correct.

Of course, Cameron is still better than Melky or Gardner, so I'm not sure that it matters.

If relievers have lower ERAs than starters, wouldn't you expect every hitter to do a bit worse against the relievers?

In any case, I think Sherman is making a number of mistakes in his reasoning here:

(1) I'm not convinced that Cameron would in effect "replace" Abreu. He'd be replacing Melky and/or Gardner, where the Yanks have (and will keep on having) a hole.

(2) I'm not convinced that trading for Cameron would finish the Yanks roster reshuffling, all the moreso because I strongly suspect that the Yanks will end up taking on some big ticket player for C-level prospects (what with the economy and all).

That may not happen in the off-season, but I strongly suspect it will happen during the season (think the Abreu trade redux).

(3) The defensive upgrade that this would represent for the Yankees outfield should not be discounted, and seeing as how one of the biggest problems the Yankees had was keeping runs off the board (I believe that by some measurements, Abreu was the worst outfielder in all baseball), Damon-Cameron-Nady (with Gardner as spot OF) is a big upgrade over anything the Yanks trotted out there in 2008.

(4) Cameron is a one year rental, who is basically costing nothing, basically Melky and....

(5) Igawa. There's some reports out there that the Brewers would be willing to take Igawa.

Seeing as how Igawa cleared waivers and NOBODY claimed him, any Igawa money the Yanks can pass along to a 3rd team is fine by me.....

If relievers have lower ERAs than starters, wouldn't you expect every hitter to do a bit worse against the reliever

Yes, but I think his numbers - again, without actually having done the analysis, but only eyeballing the figures - look fall enough off to think that this isn't the normal split.

Plus, I'm not sure that this is true across the board. I'd expect relievers to do better against worse hitters than better. In other words, a reliever would see a 10% better than average increase in performance than a starter against players wit OPS+ 80-100 and 5% against players with OPS+ 100-120 (figures completely made up). I don't know if people have done that type of study (if so I'd love to see it; the benefit and curse of so much analysis on the net is that I can't keep up with it all), but I assume the reliever performance advantage is not distributed evenly across all players.

But, again, I'm speaking OOMA, so a real analysis would be more appropriate.

If relievers have lower ERAs than starters, wouldn't you expect every hitter to do a bit worse against the relievers?

True, but not at the level of Cameron's split. Though I can't say for sure if it's predicitive.

I have a hunch that if the Yankees get Cameron, their fans will be ecstatic to get him, but like him less as the season goes on, until they can't wait to get rid of him. Moving from the NL central to AL east, combined with age doesn't look like a good situation for him. And I suspect that Cameron is the type of player that when he loses it, his demise will be a quick one.

(3) The defensive upgrade that this would represent for the Yankees outfield should not be discounted, and seeing as how one of the biggest problems the Yankees had was keeping runs off the board (I believe that by some measurements, Abreu was the worst outfielder in all baseball), Damon-Cameron-Nady (with Gardner as spot OF) is a big upgrade over anything the Yanks trotted out there in 2008.

Assuming Abreu's defensive woes last year weren't just a fluke, he really doesn't project to be any better than Nady in 2009. A Damon-Cameron-Nady OF would be the best defensive OF in the Bronx since Bernie Williams was alive and Paul O'Neil was in RF.

I agree with all the criticisms and risks associated with Cameron, but he doesn't need to be great. He only needs to be better than Melky/Gardner, and only for one year.

(1) I'm not convinced that Cameron would in effect "replace" Abreu. He'd be replacing Melky and/or Gardner, where the Yanks have (and will keep on having) a hole.

He's not.

Strictly from the standpoint of 2008 results to 2009 plan:

Cameron would replace Melky's glove and bat (both an improvement)
Nady would replace Abreu's glove (an improvement)
Damon would replace Nady's glove (a decline, but not as big as the defensive improvement in right, I'd say)
Matsui would replace Abreu's bat (a push, if Matsui hits like he always has)
Posada would replace Molina's bat (a huge improvement, even expecting a steep decline in production) and Molina's glove and arm (a huge decline)
Swisher would replace Giambi's bat (a decline, but maybe not a huge one) and glove (an improvement, but not as big as you'd think -- Giambi could field, he just couldn't throw).
Cano can be expected to improve, and may return to his old form, a HUGE improvement.

Overall, I think that last year's offensive production is about as bad as they'll do in 2009, and they should do a bit better. They won't be anywhere near the juggernaut they used to be, though.

"A Damon-Cameron-Nady OF would be the best defensive OF in the Bronx..."

One of these things is not like the other...

Posada would replace Molina's bat (a huge improvement, even expecting a steep decline in production) and Molina's glove and arm (a huge decline)

What do you think the odds of Posada playing 100+ games at C are? I think that may be the biggest upgrade the Yankees can make to their lineup, fwiw.

My suspicion is that every time Cameron comes up in a big spot from the sixth inning on, he will be fed righty relievers that will overwhelm him. I can see Boston’s Justin Masterson as Cameron’s personal nightmare.

Based on last year, most righthanded hitters ought to see Justin Masterson (.196 AVG, .274 OBP, .298 SLG allowed against righties) as a personal nightmare.

with such an obvious flaw in his game, maybe there's an equally obvious solution? Like getting a good LH pinch hitter for the times when the game is on the line in the 7th inning and Cameron is up? Damon can handle CF for 3 innings if need be, so the guy wouldn't need to be able to play CF, though that would obviously be a bonus. If the guy can handle CF, then you're even free to go w/ a semi-platoon, starting the Lefty to be named later in CF on days when cameron would need to face someone like Beckett...or for that matter with Nady, Swisher, and Damon's ability to handle 1B and the corner OF Spots, plus CF (nady I don't believe has played there, but might actually be the best bet among the three) all you really need is someone who can stand at 1st base for nine innings. And as long as they have one of Cameron, Gardner, or Christian (i know they non-tendered him, but I can't see him as less valuable than some of the guys they kept on the roster, especially if he can fake playing the infield again) on the bench, Defense in the late innings shouldn't be too much of an issue.

the more I think about it, the more swisher's addition become much more fun tactically...everything depends on Girardi's creativity, but it is pretty easy to envision swisher (OF, 1B, DH), Nady (OF, 1b - and if i recall he came up as a 3B, so I'd give some thought to seeing if he could be an adequate 4 corners type too) Damon (1B, OF), Christian (Super sub) giving the manager lots of different options....all of which are dependent on them not locking in a set starting nine, which i fear could be the case if they decide not to go after texeira, or an OF bat to supplement nady and allow them to use him as more of the lefty-masher that is his strength.

A quick glance at BRef and Cameron's late and close numbers and late inning splits in general confirm Sherman's suspicions. His OPS is worst from the 6th inning stats, and his close and late stats are just awful.

Sherman is right about some things, and wrong about others. Cameron is bad in the late and close situation. Cameron does well in the runner on 3rd and less than two out scenario that Sherman fears. It is true that Cameron still strikes out in something close to 25% of those ABs, but he also has a .911 OPS in that situation.

Mike lifetime: .250 .340 .448

Mike's lifetime split against Righties: .242 .335 .423

Mike's lifetime split against Power Pitchers: .174 .300 .323 (!)

Mike in the postseason: .174 .309 .272

Mike struggles against decent pitchers to a greater extent than most ballplayers.

He's a year older now too.

everything depends on Girardi's creativity, but it is pretty easy to envision swisher (OF, 1B, DH), Nady (OF, 1b - and if i recall he came up as a 3B, so I'd give some thought to seeing if he could be an adequate 4 corners type too) Damon (1B, OF), Christian (Super sub) giving the manager lots of different options....

FWIW, Christian has been non-tendered.

Mike struggles against decent pitchers to a greater extent than most ballplayers.

That's probably true ... and so what? Was Melky a clutch God? Does he dominate Roy Halladay?

Cameron gets eaten up by power pitchers. They also constitute less than 20% of his career PA -- there aren't that many power pitchers out there (however that's defined at b-r).

He plays good defense all the time and stinks for maybe 1 PA per game on average. I see no reason to think that's inherently less valuable than the guy who's good for every PA and a defensive liability all the time (Abreu) or a guy who stinks in every PA but (maybe) is a bit more valuable defensively (Melky).

We do see more of the Yanks' master plan though. Cameron's career OPS vs CC is 1500 and vs. Burnett is 1294. No doubt they promised to get Cameron off the market as part of those negotiations.

And how's this -- the man somehow has a 1255 OPS against Chad Bradford.

FWIW, Christian has been non-tendered.

Yes I know...not a move I would have advocated, and I would be trying to bring him back into the fold (or a to find a similarly inexpensive equivilant) right now if I were cashman...giambi might be off the team, but there are still an awful lot of old legs on this team. Gardner could easily fill the role of 4th OF/Pinch Runner...but that would be well suited to carry someone who could passably play both the Middle Infield and any of the OF spots...considering the injury risk/innings caps that will be in the rotation, its not a stretch to think the team will end up carrying an extra pitcher for much of the season, so a flexible bench would be that much more important.

considering the injury risk/innings caps that will be in the rotation, its not a stretch to think the team will end up carrying an extra pitcher for much of the season, so a flexible bench would be that much more important.

This makes no sense. If the Yankees are using more relievers to keep Joba's innings low, they'll utilize a Scranton shuttle to cycle in middle relievers. Two of Aceves, Kennedy and Hughes are going to be waiting in Scranton (all three if they sign another starter) to replace an injured starter, they don't need to lug another guy around to make a start if someone goes down.

i agree that they don't need to, but I also thing 11 pitchers is 1 too many...so i could easily see them carry an extra pitcher rather than just stashing a few guys in scranton.