Wright and Reyes are 24, the aren't "impact guys"?

Hurry, somebody say something about PCL inflating something, and Levski can respond with something snarky, because this topic isn't discussed nearly enough around here.

Nothing wrong with PCL inflated statistics.

The D'backs were able to surrender so much talent not only because they still have farmhands such as pitchers Max Scherzer and Jarrod Parker, and outfielder Gerardo Parker

It's actually Gerardo Parra.

Especially since Micah Owings, 25, might really be the No. 3 starter after refining his changeup via offseason work with Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter, whose son Chad was his pitching coach at Tulane. Webb, Haren and Owings have combined to go 10-0 with a 1.95 ERA.

Micah's pitching so far has been a really pleasant surprise. I personally didn't expect his changeup to improve so much so soon, but he seems to have made major progress with it.

The biggest challenge for Josh Byrnes is really going to be locking up the young current talent at team friendly rates for the next few years, while trying to retain both Webb and Haren in the valley past the 2010 season. The Chris Young extension is the first step; he'll have a whole lot of similar deals to do soon.

I wonder if the PCL can inflate dong size as well as statistics.

The biggest challenge for Josh Byrnes is really going to be locking up the young current talent at team friendly rates for the next few years, while trying to retain both Webb and Haren in the valley past the 2010 season. The Chris Young extension is the first step; he'll have a whole lot of similar deals to do soon.

A nightmare of a problem for any GM!

A nightmare of a problem for any GM!

Heh
It's tougher to do it when you have a whole bunch of players due for contracts and a limited payroll

Phoenix isn't a small market team, are they? I understand they aren't NYC; Boston; Chicago; or LA, but we cannot let the rest of MLB be farm teams for those 7 teams, can we?

It was more fun when KC; Milwaukee; Cincinnati; Pittsburgh; and Tampa Bay were farm teams for the other 25; at least 25 teams had a chance, and not 7.

One picture is better than a thousand words

[edit] one thing that gets lost amidst the offense and pitching: the dbacks are fielding like crazy. despite the fiasco in san fran (rj's start), the dbacks DER is at .749, tops in the majors. and eyeballing the numbers at the hardball times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/teams/nlwest/), the dbacks plus/minus is at +21 (+6 for pitching, +15 for fielding), which is also tops in the majors.

The Phoenix metro area is pretty big in terms of population, but not that great in terms of purchasing (or spending) power. A lot of the money there is dependent on cyclical business (especially construction, real estate, tourism), and that money needs to support four different major sports teams--Suns, Dbacks, Coyotes, Cardinals.

The Dbacks are going to average about $75m in payroll through 2010, and my guess is that a couple of playoff appearances by the team, if they happen, along with the resulting increase in season ticket sales and ad revenue, would definitely help and may push the payroll closer to $100m--but that's not a given. Also, their deferred payments will be off the books soon.

One aspect that I like about the Dbacks is that they seem to have enough championship caliber talent on board already. Some teams have a good core, and people make arguments like, "Once the Rays get some good middle relief and their starters develop, they'll be great!" or, a couple of years ago, "the A's have a great young core locked up long term, now they just need to get one free agent bopper!"

I don't get that feeling with AZ. I think the guys they have are already good enough to repeatedly compete for a title without surprising breakouts or acquisitions. Young, Drew, and Hudson are great up-the-middle guys, Upton is a middle of the lineup stud, Webb and Haren are legit at the top of the rotation in any postseason series, the back end of their rotation has enough upside to carry them through the season, and the bullpen has many live arms, even if Lyon is being lit up recently.

Posted in the DMB projections threads:

"My projection system differs only in the NL West. I ran about 500 simulations in my head and it came out like this:

ARI 104.4-57.5 (I know it doesn't add up perfectly to 162--rounding error)
COL 81.6-80.4
SD 80.9-81.1
SF 79.1-82.9 (surprising until you consider Lincecum averaged a 22-5 record in my sims)

Don't know what projection systems THT, DMB, Szym and others are using, but they are way off. Check them numbers, will ya."

About Lincecum:

so, basically you see him as better than 1968 Bob Gibson? 1978 Ron Guidry? 1985 Dwight Gooden? 1999-2000 Pedro? 22-5 with, what? 3 runs per game support?

Like I said, somehow my projection system likes him quite a bit. Oh by the way, Upton and Young were 1-2 in the MVP voting too.

chadbradfordwannabe for president!

Young, Drew, and Hudson are great up-the-middle guys

Drew's defense in the early going has been shaky, but I wonder if that's due to his quad injury. He seems to be running with some difficulty too. Young, however, has been a beast in centerfield.

Hudson will become a free agent, and my guess is he signs elsewhere. My impression is that there's a significant gap in terms of years and dollars between Hudson/his agent and Josh Byrnes/Dbacks. Plus, the PD folks are really excited about EBonifacio and the team may just go with him in 2009

I agree with Sherman almost entirely. Almost. Indeed, I said the same thing (without the comparative D'back focus) when, while still praising the Santana trade at the time, I said the Mets had pretty much left themselves without any means other than free agency of acquiring talent for the years after 2008. They have very little talent in the farm system to bring up and utilize, and they have very little tradeable talent. They have little in the farm system left to trade, and almost nothing at the major league roster that could realistically be traded because (a) they need it NOW (Maine) or (b) it ain't that valuable (Endy Chavez???)). And trading it later . . . well, you trade John Maine to fill a hole later and you just open up another hole. The point is the talent base going forward is really, really thin.

But there are two points worth making. First, Shereman's point is much stronger going forward than it is for 2008, and indeed I think that was by far the biggest part of his point. A lot of the Diamondbacks' young talent base is still developing, getting better (which is part of the scary part for the future), and some of it isn't even in Phoenix yet. I honestly don't think they are the team to beat for this season. But we shall see.

Second, as to the future, the Diamondbacks have the advantage in talent on hand, but the Mets do have the advantage in checkbook diplomacy. Believe me, I hate that this is the route the Omar Mets have taken, and now to a large degree are locked into, at least until they start drafting better and holding on to players they develop. And even if they do that, it won't bear fruit until 2011 at the earliest. For the time being, keeping up with Arizona (and perhaps Milwaukee) is going to mean buying talent as it becomes available. The Wilpons have certainly shown a willingness to do that -- so that dollar advantage could well keep the Mets right in the ballgame. You can't look at the current roster + farm system as a valid indication of the Mets who are likely to take the field in 2009-2012.

EBonifacio

Is he like the Hispanic Pedroia?

but the Mets do have the advantage in checkbook diplomacy.

Definitely a valid point, Sam. My rebuttal:

First, baseball teams are swimming in cash right now, and even team with lower payrolls than the Mets can, and are, significant players on the free agent market--not to mention the teams with comparable or bigger payrolls than the Mets. So just relying on the free agent market would mean overpaying for basically every single player you sign.

Second, teams are much smarter now about locking up their young players long term, and buying out as many of their free agency years as possible. That trend will continue, and will accelerate in fact. So there's a good chance that most players that hit free agency will not be star players, but rather pretty mediocre guys who then will get significant deals from teams desperate for talent--but who will not provide nearly as much in return.

No matter how much payroll the Mets have, pre-free agency players will remain the most valuable commodity in baseball.

Is he like the Hispanic Pedroia?

Hopefully he's better than the Hispanic Julio Lugo.

[edit] Scouts say that Bonifacio is really fast, faster than Justin Upton, if you can believe that, and he also knows how to use his speed to steal bases. His understanding of the strike zone is improving, and he's very good defensively at 2B. If he can provide decent on base percentage out of the leadoff spot and above average glove work at 2b, the Dbacks should be pretty happy

Hopefully he's better than the Hispanic Julio Lugo

I hope he's better than the Korean Julio Lugo

Edit: hey, he sounds like the infield version of Carlos Gomez!

(you can tell all I'm trying to do is douse gasoline everywhere in this thread)

Edit: hey, he sounds like the infield version of Carlos Gomez!

Not a bad comp, probably. Except that Bonifacio is a switch hitter; he's also shorter than Gomez and thus doesn't have Gomez's projectability/potential to develop more power.

(you can tell all I'm trying to do is douse gasoline everywhere in this thread)

Doing a fine job.

No matter how much payroll the Mets have, pre-free agency players will remain the most valuable commodity in baseball.

Preaching to the choir, Levski. You are preaching to the choir. While I don't think the Mets' situation is dire, by any means, it is not where it ought to be compared to the teams with the outstanding and broad young talent bases. I mean, there are also a lot of teams that would be more than happy to have the Mets proven young talent (Wright, Reyes, Maine, Perez). It's in the unproven (i.e., farm system) young talent that they are lacking. So the Mets are somewhere north of the basement in this regard, but way south of the penthouse.

1: Yes, of course they're impact guys, but they're not prospects, which is what the article was saying.

The Dbacks are going to average about $75m in payroll through 2010

Actually, I don't think this is quite right, although it's close. Kendrick gave Josh Byrnes a 240 Million 3 year salary "bucket" to use for 2008-9-10, so that averages 80 million.

my guess is that a couple of playoff appearances by the team, if they happen, along with the resulting increase in season ticket sales and ad revenue, would definitely help and may push the payroll closer to $100m--but that's not a given. Also, their deferred payments will be off the books soon.

Yeah, I think if they succeed in making deep playoff runs, or make it to the world series, the size of that "bucket" would have to increase. The way things are shaping up, I am pretty sure the payroll will be over 100 million by 2011. Not that 100 is such a big deal anymore. There are 10 teams over 100 right now, and 3 more within spitting distance. By 2011 it will probably be about 20 teams. I don't think the D backs are ever going to crack the top 15 in payroll within the next 5-10 years.

As far as Phoenix Market size:

This is a mid market franchise.....

According to the Forbes report, The DBacks had the 20th highest revenue in the majors last year, as well as the 20th highest franchise value. However I think that with another year of paydown on that debt, (54% Debt to value ratio) and continued increased revenues, that franchise value will jump a good 5 spots by next years report.

The D backs avg Attendance through 8 games this year is over 32K, whereas through 8 games last year it was just 26K. They don't have the marquee interleague matchup with either Boston or NY at home this year, which is always good for sellouts, but obviously they are going to be in a pennant race all year, and people here are FINALLY starting to catch on a bit as to just how great this young team can become. So I am sure they are going to outdraw last years team by at least 200-300K, and maybe half a million.

Finally, with regards to locking up the "core" players.....it's not likely to happen with Drew. We all know why. And Upton is in no hurry. He already made 6 million signing bonus and is not "hungry" for money at this point in his career. It will take at the minimum an Albert Pujols type deal, with the appropriate salary inflation adjustments on top of that, to get him to sign early and give up any free agency years. Whether or not the D backs are willing to go that far remains to be seen. I think they should though. Jackson and Reynolds should be pretty easy to lock up, Chris Snyder too. But Drew and Upton are much tougher nuts to crack. Anyway, they have Drew through the end of 2012, and Upton through the end of 2013, so I'm not too worried about it right now.

As for Orlando Hudson.......buh bye

So the Mets are somewhere north of the basement in this regard, but way south of the penthouse.

Still, even one season can make a lot of difference for a farm system.

No matter how much payroll the Mets have, pre-free agency players will remain the most valuable commodity in baseball.

No one is arguing that. The question is whether the Mets' combination of pre-free agency players (Wright, Reyes, Church, Maine, Perez, Heilman, Sanchez, Smith) plus their FA signings (Beltran, Santana, Wagner, Pedro, Delgado etc) is better than the D-Backs combination. This year? Who knows. It would be a hell of a playoff series, that's for sure. In the next few years, I think Arizona has the advantage but it all depends on how well Minaya replaces those players who are leaving, and how quickly the Mets' set of prospects (Pelfrey, Fernando, Kunz) adapt to the major leagues. If Minaya uses El Duque's money ($6MM) to re-sign Perez, replaces Delgado with Texeira, and the Franchise becomes the Franchise, then I'm not too sure.

#13 --

Second, as to the future, the Diamondbacks have the advantage in talent on hand, but the Mets do have the advantage in checkbook diplomacy. Believe me, I hate that this is the route the Omar Mets have taken, and now to a large degree are locked into, at least until they start drafting better and holding on to players they develop.

This, it seems to me, is a pretty reasonable assessment of the Mets' situation from what I've read of it, though I come from an NL West perspective on that, so my knowledge there is somewhat superficial. It does seem to me that Minaya has been treading thin ice with the way the team has allegedly restocked its farm system cupboard, and is about to fall into the pond for it. Steve Phillips it is not, but it might be called a Phillips Lite strategy. 2007 may have been the best chance the Mets have had in a while and will have, too.

Of course, it's only April.

You can't look at the current roster + farm system as a valid indication of the Mets who are likely to take the field in 2009-2012.

True that, but the real problem if you're going to take a "checkbook diplomacy" approach to team building (which the Mets certainly can do) is that it just creams your depth. The Yankees' example of both Posada and Jose Molina going down in the same week points that out rather starkly, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a thusly constructed Mets team eventually having the same sort of problems.

They have very little talent in the farm system to bring up and utilize, and they have very little tradeable talent. They have little in the farm system left to trade, and almost nothing at the major league roster that could realistically be traded because (a) they need it NOW (Maine) or (b) it ain't that valuable (Endy Chavez???)). And trading it later . . . well, you trade John Maine to fill a hole later and you just open up another hole. The point is the talent base going forward is really, really thin.


I would have agreed with you about this point back in the offseason, but now I think the "cupboard is bare" argument is invalid. The current roster is pretty solid as is - I can't foresee any major needs arising for the trading deadline.

Meanwhile, the farm has already started rejuvenating itself. Fernando obviously is legit. And now I think we have to include Tejada, Duda, and Niese as well. That makes 4 high-upside prospects. Carp is the process of reviving his prospect status and Evans in the process of leaping into it. For some reason, all the projection systems like Dylan Owen.

That makes 7 prospects who should have trade value by this offseason. Then there's Murphy, Pena, Wilmer Flores, and our top 3 picks in this year's draft. That's almost as strong as it has been in recent years.

The bottom line is that Byrnes is probably the best GM in the game, but Omar is pretty darn sharp himself. He's done what we said he needed to do after the Santana trade - 1. fill in the holes with a solid supporting cast. 2. revive the farm system.

As a Nats fan, I view the D'backs as a blueprint for the future of the Washington franchise, especially since Rizzo has been in charge of their strong drafts of late. Unfortunately, Bowden is no Byrnes -- and a lot of us in D.C. would like to see Bowden sacked now in favor of Rizzo. He couldn't do any worse evaluating major-league pitching than Jim has, especially since RFK can no longer disguise this staff's weaknesses.

One thing about Rizzo......as great as he's been at drafting guys, sometimes he gets too "married" to "his" guys, and would probably have a hard time cutting bait at the appropriate moment on some of them. But given all the high draft picks Rizzo is likely to have to work with, I think it will only take him a few years to help turn that franchise around. Nats will probably be very tough customers from about 2010-11 onwards.

2007 may have been the best chance the Mets have had in a while and will have, too.

The Mets are a better team in 2008 than they were in 2007. Johan Santana alone makes that a no-brainer, IMHO; there is no way a Santana-Perez-Maine isn't better than a Glavine-Perez-Maine rotation. And that assumes you get nothing out of Pedro in 2008 just as you got virtually nothing out of Pedro in 2007, making that a wash. After that, I think they are somewhere between marginally-to-somewhat better in other ways (Green no longer in RF; the bullpen better for the absence of Mota). Overall, this is a better team than it was a year ago.

And I think it is more likely to get worse than better after this. Beltran is likely to start to decline at his age. Not certain; but likely. Delgado is on his way out the door, and I remain less than persuaded of the future stardom of Mr. Carp. Maybe Teixeira comes along, maybe he doesn't. Castillo is the very model of a player whose legs are going, going . . . and soon to be gone. Ollie WILL hit the market, and he may or may not be back. The Mets will be fortunate to tread water in 2009; I see very little prospect of being better. After that, a lot will depend on Fernando, of course.

Of course, that leaves being a game away from the WS in 2006 completely out of the discussion.

Fernando obviously is legit. And now I think we have to include Tejada, Duda, and Niese as well.

Realistically, all four of these players have work to do. FMart and Duda have to do a better job making consistent contact. Tejada has to develop some ability to drive the ball - and I don't think the FSL is the best place for him to be doing that right now. Niese has to learn to maintain his composure when things are not going well (he's fallen apart twice this year after errors have been made behind him; his ERA is deceptive), and he has to go deeper into games.

For some reason, all the projection systems like Dylan Owen.

69/12 K/BB in 72 1/3 innings will get some people's attention :) Owen throws strikes and keeps the ball down, which are certainly good things, but he's not really a power pitcher, and he'll have to make the AA transition at some point.

-- MWE

First, baseball teams are swimming in cash right now, and even team with lower payrolls than the Mets can, and are, significant players on the free agent market--not to mention the teams with comparable or bigger payrolls than the Mets. So just relying on the free agent market would mean overpaying for basically every single player you sign.

Second, teams are much smarter now about locking up their young players long term, and buying out as many of their free agency years as possible. That trend will continue, and will accelerate in fact. So there's a good chance that most players that hit free agency will not be star players, but rather pretty mediocre guys who then will get significant deals from teams desperate for talent--but who will not provide nearly as much in return.

I don't believe these two points can remain true going forward for any length of time. The pendulem will swing. Young players will at somepoint demand some high premiums to be bought out of there FA years that teams will start passing again.

There is a tremendous value to teams that 1) can due this before the pendulem swings and 2) can not get caught on a bad talent evaluation.

Beltran is likely to start to decline at his age. Not certain; but likely. Delgado is on his way out the door, and I remain less than persuaded of the future stardom of Mr. Carp. Maybe Teixeira comes along, maybe he doesn't. Castillo is the very model of a player whose legs are going, going . . . and soon to be gone. Ollie WILL hit the market, and he may or may not be back. The Mets will be fortunate to tread water in 2009; I see very little prospect of being better. After that, a lot will depend on Fernando, of course.


But that's counteredbalanced on the other side by the continued improvement of Reyes/Wright. The starting pitching is more solid than it has ever been. Johan trumps anyone we've had since ... can't remember. Maine going forward is better than anyone we've had. I hope we resign Ollie, that's a big question mark. Pelfrey maybe, just maybe, is developing into a solid young starter. The bullpen seems pretty solid for now.

Delgado hasn't done much for us since 2006, so we're not replacing Delgado prime, we're replacing Delgado decline. And we have three prospects to try to fill the hole - Duda/Carp/Evans. I'm intrigued by Duda. If not, it's not hard to find a 1Bman to replace what Delgado gave us in 2007-2008.

So the strengths of the team will shift - from a offense heavy Reyes/Wright/Beltran/Delgado/Pedro team to a Wright/Santana/Reyes/Maine/Beltran team, but I think that this should be a 90+win team for years to come.

Rasky, you really kind of made my point for me. I was saying that I see very little likelihood the 2009 Mets will be any better -- and you pretty much agreed, just arguing that all my indicia of potential decline are "counterbalanced" either by possible gains or replacements. (Other than losing Ollie Perez, which seems like a potential disaster in the making if it happens . . . .). But even if that's true, it simply leaves no basis for thinking the 2009 Mets would be any better, and the mountain is very likely to be tougher to climb because the competition will be stronger.

I still think if I had to bet, I'd say the 2009 Mets would be worse than this year's team. But just-as-good still makes them competitively worse. This year is their best shot.

Sure, Sam. But the leap from 90+ win team to 100+ win team is so heavily dependent on luck that it's almost impossible to design or forecast. For the most part, you can't foresee a David Wright or Justin Upton suddenly breaking out. A Johan Santana becomes available once every few years, and then you have to the perfect timing to beat everyone else to him.

It's possible that there's another superstar opportunity that will emerge to allow the Mets to jump into that super elite category. But it's almost impossible to see it when it's happening.

Question about Mike Carp and Nick Evans:

They both look like pretty good hitting prospects to me on paper. Evans has mostly been playing first base and Carp has been DH'ing. Evans is 6 months older, and took a half year longer than Carp to get to AA, even though he was drafted in the 5th round and Carp in the 9th. Carp is the lefty, and Evans is the righty.

So........at this stage, why exactly is Carp ahead of Evans on the depth chart, and who do you guys think projects out better long term? Thanks.

Nobody can answer this? Hmmmmm.

Why is Carp ahead of Evans in the depth chart? Not sure. I guess Carp was on the radar earlier than Evans, having done well in the SAL at age 19 and FSL at age 20. (When he started off in the SAL, he tore the league up slugging over 700, but then the league caught up.) Evans was a non-prospect, until last year when he did well in the FSL at 21, so now he's a marginal prospect.

I haven't seen either play. Many reports gave up on Carp last year as it seemed that he couldn't deal with AA level stuff. Meanwhile, Evans has always had a pretty good BB/K ratio, which is nice for a power hitter. I guess Carp projects for more power, Evans as a better all-around hitter.

I don't think either projects to be a star, unless they can keep up this current pace. There's a nice article today by Adam Rubin in his Daily News blog about the Binghamtom trio (Dan Murphy is the 3rd Amigo). We'll know more by the midway point of the season.

I'd say the 2009 Mets would be worse than this year's team

If they sign Teixeira or Dunn and re-sign Perez or find a similiar replacement, they'll be better than they are this year.

Why is Carp ahead of Evans in the depth chart?

Carp bats lefthanded and has more power. He's also five months younger than Evans.

I've liked Evans all along - I touted him as a sleeper last year, after all - but I agree that neither he nor Carp is likely to be a star.

-- MWE

I'm not worried about the Mets at all.

First, it's exactly the wrong time to evaluate the Mets' farm system: Before the amateur draft and right after coughing up prospects that produced Johan Santana. Take four players off any team's top 10 prospect list and it'll look thin.

Second, the dearth of depth in the upper levels means more opportunities for other prospects. While Felix Hernandez/Doc Gooden-type prospects are incredibly rare, Philip Humbers really aren't. Still, Humbers have value...as organizational depth or trading chits. I'm quite confident that a year from now, someone in the Mets organization whom no one has on a hot prospect list will wind up A. making a significant contribution in the pennant race B. emerge as a MLB-average type prospect or C. stir enough interest to bring back a valuable piece in trade.

Also, the Mets' deep pockets are a great equalizer. They should be in the running for quality free agents as well as top foreign talents for years to come. Between Derek Jeter and Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees' farm system produced few top prospects (off the top of my head, I can't think of anyone better than Guzman/Milton/Ledee/Yarnall), yet managed to stay on top and keep expanding their talent base by adding the likes of Duque, Matsui, Giambi, Mussina, etc.

The bottom line is that Byrnes is probably the best GM in the game, but Omar is pretty darn sharp himself. He's done what we said he needed to do after the Santana trade - 1. fill in the holes with a solid supporting cast. 2. revive the farm system.

I don't dispute this, but what are his signature moves? Or is it just that he did a good job using the draft to build a solid young core?

Micah's pitching so far has been a really pleasant surprise.

But where's the bat? Troubling.

I don't dispute this, but what are his signature moves? Or is it just that he did a good job using the draft to build a solid young core?

Byrnes or Omar?

If they sign Teixeira or Dunn and re-sign Perez or find a similiar replacement, they'll be better than they are this year.

If the Mets have the extra resources and if it's not going to be overpriced (i.e >100 million), to get Tex or Dunn, then I'm all for it. I'm just worried that both will demand superstar money, and neither are elite. I'd prefer to allocate the money towards resigning Ollie and Pedro.

Micah's pitching so far has been a really pleasant surprise.

But where's the bat? Troubling.

Lot harder to hit when you leave it all out on the mound, eh;)

The Dbacks are going to average about $75m in payroll through 2010

Actually, I don't think this is quite right, although it's close. Kendrick gave Josh Byrnes a 240 Million 3 year salary "bucket" to use for 2008-9-10, so that averages 80 million.

Yeah, I think if they succeed in making deep playoff runs, or make it to the world series, the size of that "bucket" would have to increase. The way things are shaping up, I am pretty sure the payroll will be over 100 million by 2011. Not that 100 is such a big deal anymore. There are 10 teams over 100 right now, and 3 more within spitting distance. By 2011 it will probably be about 20 teams. I don't think the D backs are ever going to crack the top 15 in payroll within the next 5-10 years.

I think the discussion on the dbacks pen was that we'd see $110M by 2011. They are spending close to $100M now if you include deferred salaries. Plus a 5% annualized growth in revenues gets you to $110M, more with playoffs, world championships etc.

I think this article is a little harsh on the mets farm system. They don't really need it right now, and with smart decisions can reload it fairly quickly.

Any chance Reynolds moves to 2B in 2009 if they let Hudson walk?

Feh. I know Tejada is young, but he has absolutely no power and he has a .321 OBP in the FSL. Pitcher's league or not, it's still A ball, and a guy putting up a .321 OBP there does not project to hit in the major leagues. Just one year older, Fonzie put up a .367 OBP in the FSL in 1993; at the age of 18, he put up a .386 in two leagues combined in 1992.

Tejada is no Alfonzo.

I think it's ridiculous to discount Tejada's power potential so early. He's been hitting doubles consistently down in FSL - at the age of 18. That is decent power. I also got a chance to see him in spring training and I think he can generate power with his approach.

I said that Tejada reminded me of a young Alfonzo, which he does. Fonzie wasn't much of a power hitter in the minors either, he developed it when he arrived in the big leagues. What he did carry was a remarkable air of maturity and an intelligent approach towards hitting. I see that with Tejada as well (in my limited exposure).

And you're discounting the enormous difference between 18 and 19. An 18yo who can handle FSL pitching - which I admit Tejada has not shown yet, but has shown that he's not overmatched - is very special.

Lots of this is dreaming on my part, but I would love to see the Mets develop another great middle infielder.

Between Derek Jeter and Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees' farm system produced few top prospects (off the top of my head, I can't think of anyone better than Guzman/Milton/Ledee/Yarnall), yet managed to stay on top and keep expanding their talent base by adding the likes of Duque, Matsui, Giambi, Mussina, etc.

Cano?

The Mets have the money to sign Teixeira or Dunn although it'll be pricey with the Yankees also in the running. Those guys should be the Mets top priorities, IMHO.

I think it's ridiculous to discount Tejada's power potential so early. He's been hitting doubles consistently down in FSL - at the age of 18. That is decent power.

He's been hitting doubles consistently? Well, he has four (in 17 games, 73 ABs) . . . I guess that's a start. If you think that amounts to decent power . . . well OK. I don't see it myself, but anything can develop as he matures.


And as for discounting the difference between 18 and 19, the fact is Alfonzo was much better at 18, getting on base at a .386 clip. Tejada may be showing an "intelligent approach" -- I'll certainly take your word for it. But that approach is not yielding anything close to the kind of OBP that I would credit at the A-ball level as projecting to be a useful player down the road.

If Tejada is going to amount to anything, it needs to show up in performance before I'll believe it. It's not that I don't think it's possible. It just isn't anywhere in his performance line, so far.

He's been hitting doubles consistently? Well, he has four (in 17 games, 73 ABs) . . . I guess that's a start. If you think that amounts to decent power . . . well OK. I don't see it myself, but anything can develop as he matures.

I think Tejada projects as a young Luis Castillo, .300 hitter with a good amount of walks, little power, and good defense. He already has a clue at the plate, 19/16 bb/k ratio in the GCL as a 17 year old with a .401 OBP.

A young Luis Castillo is a very nice player. It's very early but he could become that player.

in the GCL

Let's not fall head over heels for GCL league players just yet.

He already has a clue at the plate, 19/16 bb/k ratio in the GCL as a 17 year old with a .401 OBP.

That was certainly nice -- but so far at St. Lucie, with tougher competition, that B/K ratio has gone to 4/14 and the OBP has declined to .321. First sign of the air being let out, before he even faces the AA test? Or just a small sample? Or maybe the first indication he needs to mature and adjust, and he'll be able to do that?

Who knows? But fundamentally, if he can't drive the ball enough to keep defenses honest, the odds he'll have off-the-charts plate discipline to control the zone and have a major league career are very, very small.

Let's not fall head over heels for GCL league players just yet.

He is holding his own in high A-ball, .677 OPS, as an 18 year-old. That's not bad for a middle infielder. I ain't saying he is a superb prospect or anything, just someone to keep an eye on. Callapso didn't even play in A-ball until he was 20.

He's not destined for superstardom, just someone who could be a quality regular.

Sam, you do realize that Chase Utley, arguably the best player in baseball, put up a .257/.324/.422 batting line in the FSL as a 22-year old. Obviously, I am not comparing Tejada to Utley, I am just saying there's plent of time for him to develop.

Lucas Duda is a "high upside prospect"?

Really? A mediocre college 1b with some raw power who had a decent NYPL stint?

Huh, color me unconvinced. I think every team in the game has a 1b as good or better in their chain. Hell, the Mets have at least 2 or 3 better than him.

That was certainly nice -- but so far at St. Lucie, with tougher competition, that B/K ratio has gone to 4/14 and the OBP has declined to .321. First sign of the air being let out, before he even faces the AA test? Or just a small sample? Or maybe the first indication he needs to mature and adjust, and he'll be able to do that?

The jump from GCL to FSL is large, and at first, I was worried too about the Mets and their aggressive approach. In the first few games, Tejada was indeed overmatched - to the tune of 0/10 BB/K.

But over the last 10 or so games, Tejada has landed on his feet. 4/4 BB/K ratio, now with doubles power, and a nice little hitting streak going.

There's not enough to decide whether he's a legit prospect yet. But I liked what I saw in spring training and the start is very promising indeed.

To imply that his ceiling is a singles hitter, like you and Russlan are saying, is in my mind, off the mark. He reminds me of a young Alfonzo, and he'll have to keep improving rapidly like Fonzie did.

Hell, the Mets have at least 2 or 3 better than him.

I like Duda more than Carp or Evans currently, but we will have to wait for more of a track record. He's supposed to have that "special" trajectory that few hitters have when bat meets ball.

Chase Utley, arguably the best player in baseball,

He wasn't even the best player in this series. I concede second best, but when you compare Utley to a living god...

Utley just hit 4 homers in 3 games, Rask. Wright was awesome but Utley was better.

Why do you like Duda more than Carp? The latter has about 325 OPS points on the latter and is doing it at the higher level. They are both the same age.

Thanks for the input on Evans and Carp guys.

I think Evans makes it to the majors first, because at least it seems he can play the position. As far as I know, they don't have a DH in the NL East, and these two guys are on the same team and one is playing first base and the other isn't. Carp is trade bait.

I think Evans makes it to the majors first, because at least it seems he can play the position. As far as I know, they don't have a DH in the NL East, and these two guys are on the same team and one is playing first base and the other isn't. Carp is trade bait.

Carp didn't look bad at first during spring training last year and if he continues to outhit Evans, he'll probably be ahead of Evans on the depth chart. That said, both of these guys are probably trade bait especially if they sign a first baseman.

Why do you like Duda more than Carp? The latter has about 325 OPS points on the latter and is doing it at the higher level. They are both the same age.

I'm going by scouting reports and anecdotes by fans who've seen Duda play. Several reports that he has great hitting tools and the proverbial "ball jumps off his bat" remark.

I don't know what to expect from Duda - I'm hoping for a 900 OPS season out of him in the FSL. Yes, I know that's asking a lot.

I'm still unconvinced about Carp - stardom-wise, not major league ability-wise. He's established himself as a 800ish OPS lefty slugger who's young for his level. If he's taken that leap, then yes, he may climb above Duda. But this torrid pace is unlikely to be maintained.

Nick Piecoro with a solid blog entry on Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer is a bit of a numbers guy. He knows about BABIP (batting average on balls in play), he monitors his first-pitch strike percentage and he keeps track of how often he is ahead in the count after three pitches...

As for the percentages, Scherzer says he is close to where he wants to be.

“You know, I ran the numbers today,” he said. “First pitch strikes, I was right around 62 percent, which I’m happy with. My goal is 65 percent. Getting ahead of them -- getting two strikes before I get two balls -- my numbers have been good. I haven’t really walked that many and that’s really helped.”

Plus, the PD folks are really excited about EBonifacio and the team may just go with him in 2009

If this is something you have heard directly from AZ PD folks, I'm stunned Levski. Is there anything in EB's professional results that suggests he'll be any better offensively than Jerry Gil? Speed alone won't cut it. See Washington, Herb.

EB's a fine athlete and is exciting to watch play. But I would wager he won't get on base enough to keep a major league job.

i like pitchers who keep up with things that help them pitch well.