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Ichiro is NOT the "Sultan of Swat". That one's taken.
Edit: It also pisses me off when people call Ivan Rodriguez, "Pudge".
So we're just using whatever nicknames we want now? Is Ichiro also the Big Unit, the Big Hurt, and the Say Hey Kid?
EDIT: Gah, too late.
Anyway. Ichiro is not the first player to keep himself in exceptional shape, and though he does frequently defy projection systems, he will not be the last player whose legs eventually betray him.
Or no.
The Ninja of Gnatball?
The Samurai of Slap?
At this point I think you predict a significant Ichiro decline at your on peril. It seems that his game does not translate well on the various computer projection models so using those models is a mistake.
Jokes like this should be off-limits, if only to minimize the possibility of it actually catching on.
I honest to God hope he turns into a 40 HR a year hitter, and comments, "I always could have hit homeruns any time I wanted."
Perhaps he can become the Ancient Mariner.
Most of the designers of these projection models have admitted this. Basically, there just aren't enough similar players to generate a decent base. Dan has noted with ZIPS that the best comparable the system can find is (I think) Sam Rice, who has been out of baseball for 70 years, which is a good indicator of uniqueness.
I believe that BP has also consistently advised people to take the over on Ichiro for any number that PECOTA spits out for him.
What would be even better is if he hits .230 with 40 homers, and then, at a press conference after the season, yells out, "Is this what you wanted? Huh? Is this what you wanted?!" And then runs from the room, weeping.
Just like Cobb, if he could do it and not hit .220, he'd be doing it already. No professional athlete and competitor is going to sacrifice performance for aesthetics.
Oh, and Shogun of Slap is good.
Concur.
You're not all that familiar with the NBA, are you?
You still consider that a professional sport? Haven't watched a game in 15 years.
You're not all that familiar with the NBA, are you?
Or Brazilian soccer.
Unless these skills are the ones to deteriorate - if his bat speed slows or his hand-eye coordination gets worse. Heck, I would wager that he loses those abilities before he loses a step.
that's when i decided not to RTFA.
Much better than the Sultan of Slap I was about to post. Now nobody will know.
On the subject of age, Bill has obviously forgotten a several points he made years ago.
James pointed out (in a comment about Tony Gwynn) that players who don't try to hit the ball hard appear to be less vulnernable to loss of bat speed than most players.
In a comment about Steve Sax he pointed out that fast players tend to age better than average. The logic is that there is a minimum speed for any given position and it's an absolute career killer if you can't meet this. Fast players are less likely to have their career outright killed through loss of speed (though the loss of speed might well take their performance down to career killing level)
In a comment about Paul Molitor he said that there's no particular reason to project age related decline in any given season when the player is in good shape. Yeah, in the long run time catches up with everybody, just no reason to think it'll be this year.
From my own study of aging 36 is the first time significant age related flags arise. Players who played regularly at both 35 and 36 were very nearly 3 times as likely to decline as to improve. Further, just over 30% of players who played regularly at 35 did not play regularly at 36.
Brazil doesn't just have to win. It must do so with flair.
If you had women that good-looking in your country, you'd do the same.
Well, having recently turned 36, I guess I'm in danger of losing my starting role next year.
As an aside, there are more Lebanese in Brazil than there are in Lebanon.
During the last World Cup, I was really struck by the looks of the women supporting one team...Iran.
Without a doubt.
Sure, but some countries have disproportionately fewer.
Yeah, like Maine. I'm from there and I've never seen such a collection of fat, ugly people.
We have the opposite problem here in Puerto Rico. Me likey going to the beach.
Yup. One of the great things about softball is that you can play it into your 90's... so you've got a good while before you run out of older potential teammates.
I wouldn't disagree with that, but I thought you were Canadian. I'm actually planning, maybe, a trip to Jordan in February.
And of course every country has beautiful women, but like everything and everywhere, there are subjectivities, bell-curves, and definite varying degrees.
Parents were born in Lebanon, I was born in Canada.
Nope, Gaylord Perry had that one in his late-career sting with Seattle.
And before him, Pete Browning (whose fielding was so bad that "he stoppeth one in three").
Go you Ichi!
Mikado Mantle (better than Matsui's - The Yankee Cripple)
The Heisei Kid
At this point I think you predict a significant Ichiro decline at your on peril. It seems that his game does not translate well on the various computer projection models so using those models is a mistake.
agreed, Ichiro! is a special case, and people that don't recognize it also missed Babe Ruth as a special case and probably a host of other hofers as special cases. Ichiro! is as unique of a player the MLB has ever known. and agree, Ichiro! is a good enough nickname. (I still love telling the story of my brother watching the first WBC and saying "I think this Ichiro player could play in the majors" as one of my reasons to love baseball---obviously my brother is not a baseball fan, but to not love Ichiro! is to not love baseball.
.319, .365, .407, .772
wOBA .345
Those are productive numbers. It's not like he is projecting that Ichiro will fall off a cliff.
I think that's partly because Christians of Middle Eastern ancestry anywhere in the Americas tend to refer to themselves as Lebanese, even if their families may have come from what is now Syria.
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