The statements by James and the author are not mutually exclusive - Ichiro is a very unique ballplayer, and seems very motivated to stay at a high level of personal performance. But he is 36 years old, and a significant part of his game is based on speed, which tends to deteriorate over time. I think Ichiro will stay at the same general level for another 2-3 years, and then hang on to get to 3,000 hits...but, James seems to be saying, you can't be terribly surprised if he declines faster than that.

But the Sultan of Swat is unlike any player James has ever measured.

Ichiro is NOT the "Sultan of Swat". That one's taken.

Edit: It also pisses me off when people call Ivan Rodriguez, "Pudge".

But the Sultan of Swat is unlike any player James has ever measured.

So we're just using whatever nicknames we want now? Is Ichiro also the Big Unit, the Big Hurt, and the Say Hey Kid?

EDIT: Gah, too late.

I agree snapper. Ichiro is deserving of some cool baseball nickname, but he can't have that one.

Ichiro will always be The Georgia Peach to me.

No, he's the Daimyo of Dribblers!

The Shogun of Slap

I think of him as the Say Hey Kid.

Anyway. Ichiro is not the first player to keep himself in exceptional shape, and though he does frequently defy projection systems, he will not be the last player whose legs eventually betray him.

Yes.

Or no.

Why can't he just be "Ichiro"? It's an unusual name; it can serve as a nickname too, no?

Ichiro is NOT the "Sultan of Swat". That one's taken.

The Ninja of Gnatball?

The Samurai of Slap?

Say Hai Kid.

So who's the poobah of popups?

Lefty?

Suzuki Samurai is already taken, but that would work if he rolled over every time he tried to take a wide turn around a base.

Ichi-Rodan. He can still fly.

I-Suz.

At this point I think you predict a significant Ichiro decline at your on peril. It seems that his game does not translate well on the various computer projection models so using those models is a mistake.

I like to think if he does lose a step in the near future, he'll also stop hitting as many ground balls. It might be wishful thinking, but I do think Ichiro's rather remarkable bat-control skills will allow him to adapt easier than most players.

I-Suz.

Jokes like this should be off-limits, if only to minimize the possibility of it actually catching on.

I always called him Scratchiro, though I don't know if that qualifies as a nickname so much as an insult. The only man who could ever go 2 for 4 with three singles.

I like to think if he does lose a step in the near future, he'll also stop hitting as many ground balls. It might be wishful thinking, but I do think Ichiro's rather remarkable bat-control skills will allow him to adapt easier than most players.

I honest to God hope he turns into a 40 HR a year hitter, and comments, "I always could have hit homeruns any time I wanted."

Shogun of Slap is pretty damn good. Case closed.

Ichiro is deserving of some cool baseball nickname, but he can't have that one.

Perhaps he can become the Ancient Mariner.

It seems that his game does not translate well on the various computer projection models so using those models is a mistake.

Most of the designers of these projection models have admitted this. Basically, there just aren't enough similar players to generate a decent base. Dan has noted with ZIPS that the best comparable the system can find is (I think) Sam Rice, who has been out of baseball for 70 years, which is a good indicator of uniqueness.

I believe that BP has also consistently advised people to take the over on Ichiro for any number that PECOTA spits out for him.

I honest to God hope he turns into a 40 HR a year hitter, and comments, "I always could have hit homeruns any time I wanted."

What would be even better is if he hits .230 with 40 homers, and then, at a press conference after the season, yells out, "Is this what you wanted? Huh? Is this what you wanted?!" And then runs from the room, weeping.

I honest to God hope he turns into a 40 HR a year hitter, and comments, "I always could have hit homeruns any time I wanted."

Just like Cobb, if he could do it and not hit .220, he'd be doing it already. No professional athlete and competitor is going to sacrifice performance for aesthetics.

Ichiro laughs at age.
Oh, and Shogun of Slap is good.

Oh, and Shogun of Slap is good.

Concur.

No professional athlete and competitor is going to sacrifice performance for aesthetics.

You're not all that familiar with the NBA, are you?

I think BJ has also noted that fast players tend to age well.

You're not all that familiar with the NBA, are you?

You still consider that a professional sport? Haven't watched a game in 15 years.

No professional athlete and competitor is going to sacrifice performance for aesthetics.

You're not all that familiar with the NBA, are you?

Or Brazilian soccer.

I like to think if he does lose a step in the near future, he'll also stop hitting as many ground balls. It might be wishful thinking, but I do think Ichiro's rather remarkable bat-control skills will allow him to adapt easier than most players.

Unless these skills are the ones to deteriorate - if his bat speed slows or his hand-eye coordination gets worse. Heck, I would wager that he loses those abilities before he loses a step.

He has an enormous number of intangibles that can’t be put on a data sheet.

that's when i decided not to RTFA.

Oh, and Shogun of Slap is good.

Much better than the Sultan of Slap I was about to post. Now nobody will know.

On the subject of age, Bill has obviously forgotten a several points he made years ago.

James pointed out (in a comment about Tony Gwynn) that players who don't try to hit the ball hard appear to be less vulnernable to loss of bat speed than most players.

In a comment about Steve Sax he pointed out that fast players tend to age better than average. The logic is that there is a minimum speed for any given position and it's an absolute career killer if you can't meet this. Fast players are less likely to have their career outright killed through loss of speed (though the loss of speed might well take their performance down to career killing level)

In a comment about Paul Molitor he said that there's no particular reason to project age related decline in any given season when the player is in good shape. Yeah, in the long run time catches up with everybody, just no reason to think it'll be this year.

From my own study of aging 36 is the first time significant age related flags arise. Players who played regularly at both 35 and 36 were very nearly 3 times as likely to decline as to improve. Further, just over 30% of players who played regularly at 35 did not play regularly at 36.

Edited: nah, better not.

I would have said Sensei of Slap is better.

Or Brazilian soccer.

Brazil doesn't just have to win. It must do so with flair.

Brazil doesn't just have to win. It must do so with flair.

If you had women that good-looking in your country, you'd do the same.

Further, just over 30% of players who played regularly at 35 did not play regularly at 36.

Well, having recently turned 36, I guess I'm in danger of losing my starting role next year.

Lebanon does alright in that regard, Lassus.


As an aside, there are more Lebanese in Brazil than there are in Lebanon.

I think every country has beautiful women.

During the last World Cup, I was really struck by the looks of the women supporting one team...Iran.

Well, having recently turned 36, I guess I'm in danger of losing my starting role next year.

I'm 37, but I've moved from first to second base in softball, no problems. (An even older guy now plays first base.)

I think every country has beautiful women.

Without a doubt.

I think every country has beautiful women.

Sure, but some countries have disproportionately fewer.

Sure, but some countries have disproportionately fewer.

Yeah, like Maine. I'm from there and I've never seen such a collection of fat, ugly people.

Sure, but some countries have disproportionately fewer.

We have the opposite problem here in Puerto Rico. Me likey going to the beach.

I'm 37, but I've moved from first to second base in softball, no problems. (An even older guy now plays first base.)

Yup. One of the great things about softball is that you can play it into your 90's... so you've got a good while before you run out of older potential teammates.

Lebanon does alright in that regard, Lassus.

I wouldn't disagree with that, but I thought you were Canadian. I'm actually planning, maybe, a trip to Jordan in February.

And of course every country has beautiful women, but like everything and everywhere, there are subjectivities, bell-curves, and definite varying degrees.

Is Ichiro old enough yet to play for the Mets outfield?

People have been declaring Ichiro dead since spring training 2001.

I wouldn't disagree with that, but I thought you were Canadian. I'm actually planning, maybe, a trip to Jordan in February.

Parents were born in Lebanon, I was born in Canada.

there are more lebanese anywhere than lebanon.

Perhaps he can become the Ancient Mariner.

Nope, Gaylord Perry had that one in his late-career sting with Seattle.

Nope, Gaylord Perry had that one in his late-career sting with Seattle.

And before him, Pete Browning (whose fielding was so bad that "he stoppeth one in three").

Ichiro is deserving of some cool baseball nickname, but he can't have that one

Go you Ichi!

Mikado Mantle (better than Matsui's - The Yankee Cripple)

The Heisei Kid

At this point I think you predict a significant Ichiro decline at your on peril. It seems that his game does not translate well on the various computer projection models so using those models is a mistake.

agreed, Ichiro! is a special case, and people that don't recognize it also missed Babe Ruth as a special case and probably a host of other hofers as special cases. Ichiro! is as unique of a player the MLB has ever known. and agree, Ichiro! is a good enough nickname. (I still love telling the story of my brother watching the first WBC and saying "I think this Ichiro player could play in the majors" as one of my reasons to love baseball---obviously my brother is not a baseball fan, but to not love Ichiro! is to not love baseball.

This reminded me of this exchange from the movie "Cobb" (and similar accounts told elsewhere):

Louis Prima: With all the great players playing ball right now, how well do you think you would do against today's pitchers?

Ty Cobb: Well, I figure against today's pitchers I'd only probably hit about .290

Louis Prima: .290? Well that's amazing, because you batted over .400 a... a whole bunch of times. Now tell us all, we'd all like to know, why do you think you'd only hit .290?

Ty Cobb: Well, I'm 72 f------ years old you ignorant son of a b----.

Bill James' projection for Ichiro in 2010:

.319, .365, .407, .772
wOBA .345

Those are productive numbers. It's not like he is projecting that Ichiro will fall off a cliff.

there are more lebanese anywhere than lebanon.

I think that's partly because Christians of Middle Eastern ancestry anywhere in the Americas tend to refer to themselves as Lebanese, even if their families may have come from what is now Syria.