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Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Shysterball: Gagne’s Activation: Innocuous Roster Move, or Sabermetric Test Case?

I believe it was noted page-turder/hurler Cal Koontz that said..."No matter how innocuous something is, somebody can always take it the wrong way.”

Daniels too has the opportunity use the Gagne-Otsuka situation as a platform to exploit sabermetric thinking. Specifically, the Billy Beane-patented “pump and dump” strategy in which Beane instructed his field manager to designate his less-than-best reliever as the “closer,” allowed them to collect a healthy save total, and then traded him away for a greater return than the were probably worth by virtue of the unwarranted value teams place on the save stat. Billy Taylor and Billy Koch are the two examples that spring to mind, each of whom Beane managed to dump to other teams for better players (though Beane was arguably a victim of the pump and dump, albeit a seemingly willing one, in acquiring Koch from the Blue Jays in the first place).

Unlike Washington’s adoption of the Jamesian relief-ace strategy, we need only read the rumor wire to see if Daniels is trying to turn Gagne and his $6 salary into trade bait for a desperate contender by allowing him to rack up a handful of easy, one-inning saves. Though the season is still young and Texas could theoretically contend, it’s certainly what I’d do if I were in his position.

Whatever happens, this is the first time in years I’ve cared about what’s happening in Texas.

Repoz Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:56 AM | 32 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralTexas

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   1. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:22 AM (#2359354)
Couple of dumb typos fixed. Sorry about that. I mean, if Gagne was really only being paid $6, I would certainly advise that Daniels keep him.
   2. AROM  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:32 AM (#2359365)
Koch was in Oakland for one season, and it was not a case of letting someone other than your best reliever rack up saves. Who was better on the 2002 team? Only Bradford had a better ERA among their relievers, and his right/left splits make him a less than ideal pitcher to close with.

Koch was more of a case of using him just about everyday and dumping him right before his arm fell off.

I've got Otsuka in fantasy. Its a weekly move league, so the announcement came too soon for me to bench Akinori for the week, but I'm not worried, he'll probably be closing again before the week is over.
   3. Shooty Did Not Kill McGurk  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:40 AM (#2359373)
Koch was all right in 2002. More importantly, he scored Keith Foulke for the A's. Billy Taylor was the classic Beane pump and dump and that was just the one time a long freaking time ago. Octavio Dotel and Arthur Rhodes may have been candidates for an arbitrage, but they didn't cooperate with their suckiness. Like most things associated with Beane in the media, there's a lot of hype and not a lot of substance. I wish Beane were the Svengali he's made out to be, though.
   4. AROM  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:43 AM (#2359375)
I would credit Jim Bowden with the patent on the closer "pump and dump". He did it with Jeff Brantley and Jeff Shaw. With Shaw it was kind of slimy, Shaw took less than market value to resign because he liked Cincinnati. A few months later he was dealt to LA for Paul Konerko.

It was a great move value-wise from the Reds, but they seemed dishonest in their dealings with Shaw. The Reds further upgraded to Mike Cameron, made a surprise almost wild card run, then used Cameron to bring in a Hall of Famer in Griffey.

I guess the Reds got what they deserved in the end. Karma's a bee-atch.

Anyway, certainly not the first time somebody credits Billy Beane with inventing something that was already done before, and better, by someone else.
   5. Squash  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:45 AM (#2359378)
It seems like Beane did it a bunch of times but the only real example of this was Taylor. Koch was already established, Isringhausen and Foulke left as free agents. The real "innovation" was recognizing that more guys could close than those ordained (Taylor was nobody, Isringhausen was a starter and a bust, Foulke had had success but didn't have closer stuff and had lost his role).
   6. AROM  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:50 AM (#2359379)
Beane using the pump and dump: Taylor

Getting suckered on the pump and dump: Dotel

Both: Koch

Seems Bowden has lost his touch. If there ever was an opportunity it would have been cashing in on Chad Cordero this offseason.
   7. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:52 AM (#2359382)
That would explain what they're doing in Detroit.
   8. jamcadbury  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:52 AM (#2359383)
As a Texas fan, I feel it's important to point out that Gagne won't be saving too many games with the way the rest of the team is playing right now.
   9. Stealfirstbase (Liberalthinkfactory.org member)  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:53 AM (#2359385)
Wow, Jeff Shaw to Ken Griffey, Jr., by way of Paul Konerko and Mike Cameron. Pretty savvy. That's fanboy material right there.
   10. Squash  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:55 AM (#2359387)
Oops, I guess I'm late to the party. But as AROM pointed out, there's not a ton of evidence that anyone but their best reliever ever ended up closing for the A's (with the possible exception of 2000, when the experiment was just beginning and Jeff Tam had his One Shining Year, though he was good again in 2001).
   11. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:59 AM (#2359392)
Didn't Oakland get a draft pick for Foulke?
   12. Will Young  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:02 AM (#2359394)
The real "innovation" was recognizing that more guys could close than those ordained (Taylor was nobody, Isringhausen was a starter and a bust, Foulke had had success but didn't have closer stuff and had lost his role).

You mean guys like Eddie Guardado and Joe Nathan?
   13. AROM  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:08 AM (#2359398)
You mean guys like Eddie Guardado and Joe Nathan?

Pretty much every closer in MLB history, except guys like Gregg Olson and Huston Street, who were born in the 8th inning and immediately took the ball to shut down the 9th before they could walk or talk.
   14. Squash  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:13 AM (#2359402)
You mean guys like Eddie Guardado and Joe Nathan?

That's why innovation is in parentheses. You might note, however, that Guardado became a Closer in 2002. When Beane was trading for Isringhausen in 1999 and declaring him to be the closer, there were more than a few eyebrows raised.
   15. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:15 AM (#2359403)
You mean guys like Eddie Guardado and Joe Nathan?

Two excellent examples.

It seems that for every reliever that has sustained success over years and years of work (Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera) there are twenty that have a few years of success, and then flame out. Trading away closers at the peak of their value seems like it is a great idea more often than not. You get a guy like Danny Kolb, you trade him away as soon as possible.

I'm sort of hoping the Sox trade away Bobby Jenks, either this summer or in the off-season.
   16. Squash  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:20 AM (#2359405)
It seems that for every reliever that has sustained success over years and years of work (Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera) there are twenty that have a few years of success, and then flame out.

It's true, and an oddity about the game. Is this more so in recent years (seems like there's a bunch of guys like this now) or has it always been this way?
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:22 AM (#2359407)
Jeff Russell, I remember, back in the 80s.

Dennis Eckersley, for that matter. That's just how closers are made. The question is whether you're good at finding them / making them or not.
   18. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:27 AM (#2359414)
When Beane was trading for Isringhausen in 1999 and declaring him to be the closer, there were more than a few eyebrows raised.

Well, yeah, because Isringhausen was still considered a starting prospect at that time, albeit a fading one. He didn't have the normal path to being an MLB closer (ie., success as a middle reliever first).
   19. AROM  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:34 AM (#2359422)
He didn't have the normal path to being an MLB closer (ie., success as a middle reliever first).

Its not that uncommon:

Papelbon
Gagne
Dempster
Brett Myers
Smoltz
Gossage
Righetti
   20. Bob Dernier Cri  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:54 AM (#2359437)
I dunno, the "pump-&-dump" concept seems to work (if at all) with some journeyman that nobody's much heard of. People have heard of Eric Gagne. He is of some trade value just because he still exists, and there's a glimmer of hope that he might return to Cy Young form. But he is of limited value because his injuries are high-profile.
   21. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:56 AM (#2359442)
Papelbon
Gagne
Dempster
Brett Myers
Smoltz
Gossage
Righetti


Gossage was actually a middle reliever first. The White Sox then used him as a fireman one year (1975) before they tried him as a starter, in 1976.

While Papelbon was a starter in the minors, after three MLB starts, he was basically used in middle relief at the end of the 2005 season before being anointed closer in 2006.

Myers, Righetti, Dempster, and Gagne all had a good deal of success as starters (I suppose that stating that closers normally come through the bullpen is off-base) before being converted to relief for one reason or another.

Isringhausen was different in that he looked like he was done as a prospect when the A's acquired him and made him closer. He hadn't really had any success in the majors in three years, and suddenly he was a closer.

So I guess my original statement wasn't really right - I just needed to clarify what I was thinking.
   22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 12:41 PM (#2359467)
"I wish Beane were the Svengali he's made out to be, though."

One interesting thing I've noticed this year is that Beane's quietly been buying some of Cleveland's minor league pitchers: Dan Denham just recently, and Travis Foley the week before that. Both were fairly high picks in the '01 draft, and both are somewhat disappointing at this point in their respective careers, with Foley having been moved to the pen and Denham struggling to break the AAA barrier.

It could just be a case of him covering for organizational holes, but I thought it was interesting that both transactions were with the same franchise, and both were unqestionably cash deals (instead of the ubiquitous "player to be named later/future considerations".
   23. plim  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 01:48 PM (#2359522)
While Papelbon was a starter in the minors, after three MLB starts, he was basically used in middle relief at the end of the 2005 season before being anointed closer in 2006.


also, at mississippi state, he was a reliever/closer.

it should also be noted that Mariano Rivera was a starter in the minors and made 10 starts in 1995 before becoming jon wetteland's setup man in 96.

He didn't have the normal path to being an MLB closer (ie., success as a middle reliever first).


i would say that most closers start off as failed starters. there are very few major leaguers like huston street or craig hansen that start their college/semi-pro career as relievers.

in fact, a quick survey shows that anyone with 300+ saves had spent a majority of their minor league stints as starters, with the exception of trevor hoffman, troy percival, and tom henke (bruce sutter's minor league gs numbers are unavailable).

goes to show that for the most part, these guys have really good stuff, but can only last 1-2 innings, or have only 1-2 good pitches (as opposed to the 3-4 needed to start), e.g. you were good enough to start in the minors, but not in the majors.
   24. ghost of perros  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 01:51 PM (#2359525)
Wonder if Gagne could've become a successful starter if given more of a chance.

Too late now.

I see Papelbon following the same career path if he's not careful.

If you've got the pitches to be a starter, you should be a starter.
   25. vortex of dissipation  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 02:35 PM (#2359580)
I would credit Jim Bowden with the patent on the closer "pump and dump". He did it with Jeff Brantley and Jeff Shaw. With Shaw it was kind of slimy, Shaw took less than market value to resign because he liked Cincinnati. A few months later he was dealt to LA for Paul Konerko.

It was a great move value-wise from the Reds, but they seemed dishonest in their dealings with Shaw. The Reds further upgraded to Mike Cameron, made a surprise almost wild card run, then used Cameron to bring in a Hall of Famer in Griffey.


The thing I remember most about the Shaw trade is that it happened three days before the 1998 All-Star Game - to which Shaw had been selected. His first appearance in a game wearing a Dodgers' uniform was the All-Star Game...
   26. PH  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 02:56 PM (#2359603)
I would credit Jim Bowden with the patent on the closer "pump and dump". He did it with Jeff Brantley and Jeff Shaw. With Shaw it was kind of slimy, Shaw took less than market value to resign because he liked Cincinnati. A few months later he was dealt to LA for Paul Konerko.


The Matt Karchner-for-Jon Garland trade was also halfway through the '98 season. Same idea.
   27. Zooooooook (jonathan)  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 04:08 PM (#2359684)
I dunno, the "pump-&-dump" concept seems to work (if at all) with some journeyman that nobody's much heard of.



I agree with this here. Guys with established reputations tend to carry those reputations around. Jose Mesa had 43 saves in 2004, 3.25 ERA. Nobody was rushing to overpay the Pirates for him. You wouldn't be able to take Mike Stanton, pump 15 saves into him for half a season, and then suddenly garner a king's ransom at the deadline for him.


Likewise, I think pump-and-dump really only works as a long term project. You have to turn a guy into a "proven closer." If Huston Street goes down tomorrow and Justin Duchscherer fills in as the closer for the rest of the season, Beane probably isn't going to all of a sudden be able to sell him as a closer in the off season.
   28. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 04:34 PM (#2359697)
If Huston Street goes down tomorrow and Justin Duchscherer fills in as the closer for the rest of the season, Beane probably isn't going to all of a sudden be able to sell him as a closer in the off season.

Unless Duchscherer struggles in the role, I don't see why he wouldn't.
   29. AROM  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2359707)
Unless Duchscherer struggles in the role, I don't see why he wouldn't.

I don't think he's going to get any more trade value out of Duke just because he picks up 20 saves or so. He's a very valuable pitcher right now and plenty of teams would like to have him. Like Scot Shields. I'm sure there are plenty of teams that would have loved to have him as a closer, if only Bill Stoneman wanted to trade him.
   30. Squash  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2359737)
in fact, a quick survey shows that anyone with 300+ saves had spent a majority of their minor league stints as starters, with the exception of trevor hoffman, troy percival, and tom henke (bruce sutter's minor league gs numbers are unavailable).

Guys are groomed as relievers much more these days. I can't remember anyone prior to Percival (I guess Hoffman was around the same time, without looking it up) who was groomed strictly as a closer. Street is one of these new breed.

Like Scot Shields. I'm sure there are plenty of teams that would have loved to have him as a closer, if only Bill Stoneman wanted to trade him.

I shouldn't love him b/c he's an Angel, but Shields is great. 38th round pick. Finally got him on my fantasy team this year.
   31. AROM  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 10:34 PM (#2359939)
Guys are groomed as relievers much more these days. I can't remember anyone prior to Percival (I guess Hoffman was around the same time, without looking it up) who was groomed strictly as a closer. Street is one of these new breed.

Gregg Olson was the original. Stats

College closer, drafted in 1988, quick trip through minors, big league closer in 89.
   32. Mister High Standards  Posted: May 09, 2007 at 11:04 PM (#2359953)
Craigs blog is good because it is thought provoking. Accurate... not so much. For those with keys can we get more or AROMs blog... which is both is both thought provoking and accurate... tks.

btw: that was a poor blog entry.
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