I think length of the contract might be the biggest sticking point.
After this year, the Braves clear out Hampton ( 16 mil ), Smoltz ( 12 mil ) and Glav ( 8 mil ). And they are already paying Tex 12 mil.
So technically, they have enough room to re-sign Tex and add another premium starting pitcher.
The question is, do they want to get stuck with a 10 yr contract? Early indications are negative.

I think Tex, while a fine player, is going to be massively overpaid. If I'm the Braves, I don't want to be sinking a huge chunk of my payroll into a long-term deal for a first baseman.

He'll be a Yankee. And... that's all there is to it.

Russlan and I are going to diverge on Texeira. I know he wants the Mets to go after him hard.

I think he's going to get elite offers from several teams, but I don't want the Mets to be one of them. He's not an elite player, and this is playing out a bit like the Zito sweepstakes, IMHO.

He's not an elite player

while his demands maybe high, he is an elite player.
Durable, good defence, plus power and patience. He is going to be dependable as any player over the next 5 yrs.

If the Yankees do sign Tex, they should let Abreu go to recoup the draft pick.

I think Tex, while a fine player, is going to be massively overpaid. If I'm the Braves, I don't want to be sinking a huge chunk of my payroll into a long-term deal for a first baseman.

He is going to be overpaid, but would you overpay for stability? While the Braves have nice complimentary pieces in Mac and KJ and Yunel, none of them are really a consistent big bopper. Chipper, despite his ponce de leon activities of late, is going to last another 2-3 yrs max. And the Braves have no first base prospect close to the majors ( unless you consider Canizares a prospect ). If Tex gives any sort of discount, the Braves should jump on this.
And as I mentioned earlier, they won't be handcuffing themselves with a 18-20 mil a year a deal either.

Teixeira is an elite player, but see the Hafner article earlier. Some team will give him lots of money, which he will justify for a while, and too many years.

Durable, good defence, plus power and patience. He is going to be dependable as any player over the next 5 yrs.

Sure. But maybe this is an argument over "elite" and over what the expectations are for his next contract. By elite, I mean I think he's going to get in the neighborhood of 150 million in the offseason, probably around 7-8 years. In my opinion, that's not a great deal. True, he's never going to be a weakness for you - but for a fraction of the cost, I think the Mets can get a better proportion of production. I also think that in the next 2-3 years, the Mets should be able to find a long term solution for 1B who is not Tex.

Sure. But maybe this is an argument over "elite" and over what the expectations are for his next contract.

How often do elite players make it to the market, especially before they turn 30? Most of the time you have to trade for them and that isn't cheap. The Mets can afford Teixeira and should be willing to spend 125-140 million for him.

I also think that in the next 2-3 years, the Mets should be able to find a long term solution for 1B who is not Tex

I think this argument doesn't hold water for a big spending team like the Mets. Sure if we are talking a low budget team, it may make sense. But would the Mets not go after Tex and a sure fire 280/380/500+ line with good defence for less dependable quantities like Carp or whoever. I don't think so.
Tex, as Arod, not only puts up good numbers, but he puts up good numbers consistently, and that has great value IMO.

The Mets can afford Teixeira and should be willing to spend 125-140 million for him.

...
But would the Mets not go after Tex and a sure fire 280/380/500+ line with good defence for less dependable quantities like Carp or whoever. I don't think so.
Tex, as Arod, not only puts up good numbers, but he puts up good numbers consistently, and that has great value IMO.

But the Mets don't have an unlimited budget to work with. If you tie up 15-20 million a year in Tex, that's money that could go towards a) the 3 looming rotation holes, b) a 2Bman, c) a 2008 OFer and d) eventually, extending Reyes and Wright.


Is O-Hudson going to be a FA? I'd rather pay for him and find a reasonable fill-in at 1B, then see whoever amongst Murphy/Evans/Carp/Duda can blossom.

Rich was mentioning that the Yanks may let Abreu go.

Also, you never know when a trade option may arise.

If we can get Tex for 100M or less, I would support the measure. Otherwise, I prefer that the Mets pass.

Is O-Hudson going to be a FA? I'd rather pay for him and find a reasonable fill-in at 1B, then see whoever amongst Murphy/Evans/Carp/Duda can blossom.

Heh. I thought Luis Castillo was your long time 2B man! And I think not going after Tex would be a bad move for the Mets. They have holes in teh rotation and no way they find 3 quality starters on the market. better to strengthen hitting and defence.

If Tex gives any sort of discount, the Braves should jump on this.

Given that Boras is his agent, that's a pretty big if. But in that case I'd definitely look a lot harder at it. I still think he's a Met or an Oriole or a Yankee, but I wouldn't jump off a bridge if Atlanta signed him for 6-8 years.

And I think not going after Tex would be a bad move for the Mets. They have holes in teh rotation and no way they find 3 quality starters on the market. better to strengthen hitting and defence.

I'd be happy with 2 solid starters and letting the 5th slot be between Pelfrey/Vargas/Stokes etc. Part of the issue is seeing how Pedro and Ollie fare for the rest of the year. But there appears to be reasonable depth for the FA starting pitching market. If the Mets want to break into Yanks/Bosox levels of spending, that's where I'd prefer they allocate the budget.

The issue at 2B vs 1B is the issue of supply. I don't think that Hudson will demand the same level of commitment as Tex and it's much easier to find a 1Bman who can give you .320/480.

My ideal scenario would be Baltimore signing Texeira for 9 years, 160 million. Then making Brian Roberts available on the cheap given budget constraints.

If the Yankees do sign Tex, they should let Abreu go to recoup the draft pick.

They should let Abreu go regardless.

I'm not sure a first baseman can be an elite player. The marginal value of the best first baseman over an average one is less than that of the best player of any other position over an average one, and first base isn't a premium defensive position. And star first basemen often have their value in old-player skills. I'd be less inclined to give a monster contract to a first baseman than any other type of player.

#18, this is not fantasy.

Saying Tex is not elite is just incorrect. Because most 1st basemen (not named Overbay) tend to be better hitters, doesn't mean a player like Tex is not elite because the margin is smaller between him and the replacement 1st baseman.

As I stated before. I swear BTF is obsessed with win per dollar. To win a real championship, you need mass productivity. Output per dollar is nice, and it may prove you are smart, but you won't get far unless you have enough talent and total productivity.

Red Sox. There's some thought they could agree to trade Manny Ramirez, move the versatile Kevin Youkilis to leftfield and import Teixeira. Boston execs do like the idea of getting younger. However, Ramirez is such a hero now in Boston that it might be tough to move him out of town. 20-1.

WTF?? Everyone knows it hinders on the Sox picking up his option. Trade talk is over moron

"Mariners GM Bill Bavasi has an excellent working relationship with Boras."

what a terrible thing to say about someone.

How often do elite players make it to the market, especially before they turn 30? Most of the time you have to trade for them and that isn't cheap. The Mets can afford Teixeira and should be willing to spend 125-140 million for him.

Of all the positions, don't the Mets have more solid prospects at 1b than any other? I'd rather see if one of the young guys can stick, and spend the big bucks where we're weaker, namely starting pitching.

edit: AND for the reasons Vaux mentions in 18.

The issue at 2B vs 1B is the issue of supply. I don't think that Hudson will demand the same level of commitment as Tex and it's much easier to find a 1Bman who can give you .320/480.

Mark Ellis should also be available, unless the A's extend him.

Vaux, saying a 1b can't be elite is silly. You don' t think Pujols is elite? That being said, I don't think Tex is elite and he will be overpaid.

So 2 years ago the elite FA was Barry Zito, and that maybe didn't turn out okay for the Giants (on pace for an 0-33 season, right now). Last winter, the elite free agent was Andruw Jones, right now on pace for a 5 HR, 20 RBI season, so maybe that didn't turn out so well for the Dodgers. And so now the GM'a are lining up with full wallets and hard-ons for the next big thing? What is the attraction about repeating mistakes?

was Jones really the elite FA? and even if he was, his contract is 2/34. that's expensive per year, but very short.

The best free agent last year was Torii Hunter. The free agent market clearly valued him ahead of Jones. So far, no complaints.

If AJ wasn't the elite FA, I am not sure who was. Yes, the contract is short, but right now that looks like a 2 year bleeding sore; paying 17 million for a pinch-hitter seems a waste of resources, even for a team as wealthy as the Dodgers. And of course we are going to get the "But Teix. is different" (and maybe he is), but at what point do FA over-hyped, over-priced signings begin to be questioned by the owners?

Zito wasn't the top free agent after 2006 either, Soriano was. One good year, one bad start so far. Do Cub fans wish this contract never happened? Not sure, but I'd rather have the money back and Matt Murton in left.

paying 17 million for a pinch-hitter seems a waste of resources, even for a team as wealthy as the Dodgers

Pinch-hitter for Pierre?

Jones was near the top of the class last winter, but I think everyone agreed it was a pretty weak class. The main targets were a bunch of 30+ CF's (Cameron, Hunter, Rowand). Andruw was the 2nd youngest of those, and only 2 seasons removed from a 50 homer season.

I swear BTF is obsessed with win per dollar. To win a real championship, you need mass productivity.

I think that's right because I don't think the true relationship between wins and dollars is linear. That's how people tend to conceptualize it, but I think that conceptualization tends to lead to the conclusion that everyone should be the dirt-cheap Florida Marlins or Pittsburgh Pirates and I don't think that's really the right answer.

If the Mets want to break into Yanks/Bosox levels of spending, that's where I'd prefer they allocate the budget.

The Mets already have a higher payroll than the Red Sox. So do the Tigers.

Source.

The Mets should go after Tex because he is one of the elite first basemen, and has been pointed out, you don't find guys like that on the market every often.

I think someone above made the comparison to Hafner above; the two really aren't comparable. Hafner is a big, unathletic guy who can't even play first base; Tex is a very good first basemen who just turned 28. (Geez, I can't believe he is only 28; he's 2 and a half years older than David Wright). He's shown to be durable; I would love to add him to Beltran, Reyes, Wright, and Church.

The Mets have Castillo signed through 2011; as much as some of us might want to look for a replacement for him, that isn't gonna happen any time soon. The Mets increased their payroll from $115 million last year to $137 million this year, and moving into a new stadium next year, I think $150 million is a reasonable estimate to have for the payroll next year. Delgado is making $16 million this year, he has a buyout of $4 million, so thats 12 to work with right there. Pedro is making $11 million, he could be gone next year. Alou is making $7.5 million, El Duque is making $6.5 million, Perez is making $6.5 million, Sosa is making $2 million. Thats about $45 million to work with, and if you assume they add to the payroll, you could be looking at close to $60 million to go to war with.

Now of course they have arbitration raises and the like. Wright is going from $5 million to $7.5 million. (Not that I am concerned about losing him, but we have him locked up for the next 6 years, including this one, at $67 million). Reyes goes up $1.75 million, Castro and Endy combined less than half a million. You're gonna have to come to terms with Church and the like, but even assuming Tex signs for 20 million a year, you should be looking at another $25 million easy to fill in the pitching staff, and maybe the LF spot as well, though they might hand that over to Fernando or something.

I understand that AJ was 2 seasons removed from a 50 homer season; shoot, when Barry Zito was signed, he was 1 season removed from a 16 win season. That worked out well, didn't it? That is kind of the point. If you rationalize a high dollar FA signing by picking the best possible stat out of the last few seasons, you can rationalize just about any expenditure. But you are ignoring at least 3 factors that mitigate against a repeat of that glossy number that a GM can pull out of the air as justification, and why wouldn't baseball GMs be as smart and saavy as say, 75% of the people who post on this board?

why wouldn't baseball GMs be as smart and saavy as say, 75% of the people who post on this board?

Because GMs actually have to build a team, not just get value for money. And even when that GM's team wins the WS, unless his name is Epstein, the slagging doesn't end there.

Among the slugging 1B who can actually play 1B, Tex has been better than:

Morneau/Konerko

about even with Derrek Lee,

Not as good as Helton/Berkman

and not on the same planet as Pujols.

If I needed a 1B I would consider 15-18 million on a 5 year deal, but no way am I going to set a new standard with an offer to him. Which means I probably don't sign him.

And even when that GM's team wins the WS, unless his name is Epstein, the slagging doesn't end there.

Even he gets slagged. He had three big FA signings going into last year - Dice-K, Drew, and Lugo. Two of them turned out badly, and even Dice-K was only a very highly-paid league average starter (he's shown enough that, given the added value of Japanese marketing, so I still think it's turning out well) in 2007.

I do understand that winning is the point for GM's, but I just hope in a just world the Giant's owner brings to the Giants GM the "WTF" articles about the Zito signing which were written immediately after that happened, together with Zito's stats, so far, and maybe just maybe asks a question or 2, as in "Dude, what were you thinking when you recommended that we do that?"

I'm really glad he went to Atlanta last year. Angels were reportedly offering Kotchman + Santana or Saunders, and Texas wanted more. That would look like a disaster right now as Tex's salary might have meant no Torii Hunter signing. Put Tex's bad start on the Angels, take away 3 other key players, and the Angels would be lucky to still be a .500 team right now.

Very good call, on what was given up and what was offered. Hopefully none of the 5 kids Atlanta gave up for a year and a half of Teix. will be superstars.

Is Teixeira moving back to third base completely out of the question?

He last played there in his rookie season, played 15 games and made 7 errors for an .811 fielding %. Doesn't seem promising.

Let's say the Braves accidently placed him on waivers and the Angels were the only team paying attention and grabbed him for free. Say Figgins is out longer than expected. In that situation I could see trying him at third and seeing if he can be acceptable there, and if not just have him and Casey split the 1B/DH duties for the rest of the year.

I would not spend free agent megabucks in the hope of him being able to fill a hole at 3B.

If the Yankees do sign Tex, they should let Abreu go to recoup the draft pick.

Someday, somebody will explain to me the logic of why a sandwich pick you get for losing a player can't in turn go to a team whose player you sign away when your first round pick is already gone. I haven't done a study and I'm probably remembering selectively, but it just seems that the Yankees and Red Sox have been hitting big on sandwich picks guy, and I think in some of those years they were losing only second or third rounders for players they signed (because another signee caused them to surrender their first rounder). I just don't see the reasoning, and it seems to be a bigger competitive disadvantage than even the huge payroll disparities.

As I stated before. I swear BTF is obsessed with win per dollar. To win a real championship, you need mass productivity.

Totally agree. This came up in an offseason thread about the possible trade of Jason Bay for Franklin Gutierrez plus. Several posters raved about the runs/wins per dollar that Gutierrez can give you for the next few years, but for me, he's a guy that's going to be a nice bargain as a complementary player, but as soon as you start thinking about getting competitive, that's a position that you'll look at as a place where you need an upgrade. Top shelf talent may look worse economically on paper, but it allows you to add in nice little bargains elsewhere. Nice little bargains everywhere probably gets you 85 wins, and then what? It's the old "no obvious position of weakness that you can address with a big move and add 5 or 6 wins overnight." (BPro is really starting to hammer on this w/r/t the Blue Jays.)

I just don't see the reasoning, and it seems to be a bigger competitive disadvantage than even the huge payroll disparities.

I hate free agent compensation picks with a passion. You are right, they add to competitive imbalance instead of mitigating it. The purpose has nothing to do with competitive imbalance but was an attempt to lower free agent values (which doesn't seem to work anyway). It really hurts the weak teams because when their 2nd round pick comes up they get the 45th or 50th best player instead of the 31st or 32nd.

I just hope in a just world the Giant's owner brings to the Giants GM the "WTF" articles about the Zito signing which were written immediately after that happened, together with Zito's stats, so far, and maybe just maybe asks a question or 2, as in "Dude, what were you thinking when you recommended that we do that?"

With a signing at Zito's level, I'm sure the owner was in 100% agreement to sign him. So he can't blame it all on the GM.

I am sure the owner was in agreement, but I would hope the owner was relying on the recommendation of his GM, who is responsible for the quality of the product on the field. The owner's job in that equation would be to see if the additional revenue opportunities provided by all of the extra wins provided by Zito (yeah, right) and the all the seats sold by the fans who wanted to watch Zito pitch (lots of those I am sure) can provide a return on the salary the GM is advising that the owner pay.

I think Angelos is going to make a big push for Teixeira.

The Orioles have zero players signed for 2010 and beyond, so they have the money to spend.

Also, it's pretty rare that a player expresses anything other than disgust when asked about the possibility of playing in Baltimore.

Give teix.'s other suitors a chance to show him the Orioles W-L record for the last 5 years, and give Teix. a chance to meet Angelos. Those 2 events should end Baltimore's chances.

Looking at BRAA for 1B, Tex was in the top 5 in 2004 (3rd), was 10th in 2005, 19th in 2006, and 11th last year. Honestly, unless you're convinced 2004 was his TTL, how is the world is he elite?

I think he's good, durable and a fine fielder. I can't see a team with him as the offensive centerpiece vying for a championship.

He'll be a Yankee. And... that's all there is to it.

Is this a Kill Bill, Vol. 2 reference?

Also, Tex isn't really an elite hitter for a first baseman, so I would be wary about any long term deal for him. Yet, I still wish he was on the Yankees. 'Tis a dilemma.

I don't know, I would probably rather have Tex than Torii Hunter. They are comparable fielders relative to their position (if anything Teixeira is a little better), and the hitting gap is comparable to the 2.5 win gap between CF and 1B (unless you think that Hunter really established a new level last year, which at 31 seems unlikely). Throw in the younger age, and I can see justifying giving Teixeira a better contract than Hunter (although Hunter was of course probably overpaid relative to other free agents.)

Also, I am pretty sure the best free agent last year was ARod :)

I have to echo post 50. Teixeira is good, but I over the past three years, he has been 24th, 54th and 13th in the majors in VORP. He's young for a free agent and he used to be a big time prospect, but he has never been in the discussion of the best hitters in baseball. I don't think you can give a first baseman that kind of money for that length of contract unless they are a premium hitter.

Give teix.'s other suitors a chance to show him the Orioles W-L record for the last 5 years, and give Teix. a chance to meet Angelos. Those 2 events should end Baltimore's chances.

Teixeira grew up a diehard Orioles fan and continues to root for them when his team isn't playing them. I think he's pretty familiar with Angelos and the team's poor record.

There are plenty of scenarios where Teixeira signs elsewhere (including signing with a team that has a recent history of winining), but the Orioles will be on his shortlist.

Does the fact that Teix. seems to be wearing well; doesn't have old-player skills only; and seems to be a guy that stays out of off-the-field trouble help his cause? The baseball prospectus people sure love him.

I think the orioles will be on his short-list as a stalking horse, to keep other bidders bidding. If I had more than I ever will really need money, and had played most of my career for a non-winning organization, i wouldn't lock my next 8 years up with a team who seems to have no apparant ability to play a meaningful game past July 4. At some point, fun and winning has to factor in, doesn't it?

At some point, fun and winning has to factor in, doesn't it?

Yes, winning is a factor for some players, but probably not as much as you think.

The last three players who freely chose to sign $100MM contracts with other teams were Soriano (Cubs coming off a 66 win season), Zito (Giants coming off a 76 win season) and Lee (Astros coming off a 82 win season). There weren't any huge contracts this offseason, but Rowand, Cordero and Guillen all signed for big bucks with losing teams.

I think it's more likely that Tex will spurn the Orioles for more money than just because they've sucked for 10 years.

DKDC-I was thinking about that. I would say in Zito's case, he just stayed home (he was a california boy who played in Oakland) and, in any event, I wouldn't consider SF the sad sack franchise over a more meaningful period than last year that the orioles have been (I put the Orioles franchise right (haven't been above .500 since 1997)now in with the Royals, Reds, Rangers and Rays-they just don't compete, and the Giants had had 8 straight winning seasons and 5 straight 90+ win seasons before the 2 down years).

As to the others, maybe it depends on who is chasing them. Who were Soriano's suitors, other than the Cubs?

For a lot of people, playing close to home (presumably he still has family in Maryland) for the team you grew up loving would be just as fun as winning. Maybe those aren't the sort of competitive people who'd make a career out of professional sports, but it's possible.

Soriano (Cubs coming off a 66 win season)

Choosing the out-of-the-norm poor season for a generally winning Cubs team doesn't compare to the baseball craphole that the Orioles have become.

How crazy its gotten that the Cubs are relative winners and the O's organization stinks.

I was thinking about that Orioles run of poor play. Mark Teixera went to college in 1998. The Orioles haven't been good since he was in high school. Man that is a long run for a franchise without economic constraints.

Teixeira does still have family in Maryland, according to this article from last year.

"I grew up as a diehard Orioles fan, there's no secret about that," said Teixeira, the switch-hitting slugger and Gold Glove infielder who was Maryland's High School Player of the Year in 1997-98 for Mount St. Joseph's.

"My family still lives in Severna Park [Md.], and they'll probably live there the rest of their lives. So, it's definitely a good story. I don't think about [playing for Baltimore] too much, because I'm a Texas Ranger. In a year and a half, we'll have some fun conversations."

Morneau/Konerko

about even with Derrek Lee,

Not as good as Helton/Berkman

and not on the same planet as Pujols.

If I needed a 1B I would consider 15-18 million on a 5 year deal, but no way am I going to set a new standard with an offer to him. Which means I probably don't sign him.

That's about where I stand too, AROM. Tex is better than Helton, about even with Lee when you take age into account. Worse than Miggy. Worse than Johnson (IMO - although I can see arguing the other way).

Screw it, let's see: I'll just do NL.

Elite: Pujols, Berkman, Fielder

Excellent: Howard, Johnson, Gonzalez, Teixeira, Lee.

Good: Loney, Helton.

Decent: LaRoche, Jackson, Jacobs, Votto.

Then you have your Roberto Petagiane All-Stars.

Tex is pretty good, but I don't see how he's *elite.* That said, I would go 6/100M for him, but not a penny more. There are too many good sticks at 1B out there.