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Saturday, July 19, 2008

S.I.: Sheehan: Eight trades that make sense

Your beard is weird! For the couple of days...Keith Hernandez has been absolutely torching Adam Dunn. WTF is up with that?

Adam Dunn, Reds

The subject of more trade rumors than that Colombia bill, Dunn remains a Red just a few short months from free agency. His perceived value isn’t great—J.P. Ricciardi’s opinions are shared by a number of people within the game—but few players bring the bat that Dunn does, and his defense has improved to the point where he’s not giving back half the runs he creates. He hasn’t been as productive as Bradley or Bay, but he’s been more consistent at a high level, and is therefore a better bet to sustain his performance.

The Diamondbacks have a number of reasons to pursue Dunn. He’s a free agent at the season, so they won’t have a commitment that blocks Eric Byrnes’ contract.

With Chris Young and Justin Upton they have a good outfield defense, enabling them to mix in Dunn. (Given that Conor Jackson has been playing left, Dunn may well be an upgrade.) They have the kind of midlevel depth in prospects that could be used to acquire a rental.

Oh, yeah, and their offense has been awful, and they desperately need Dunn’s bat. His low-contact approach doesn’t make him the best fit, as they could use a .315/.360/.470 guy who hits doubles, but his .388 OBP from the left side would be a godsend for a team reaching base at a .323 clip. Inserting Dunn into this lineup would add 20 runs to the team total, re-establish the D’backs as the team to beat in the NL West and help assure that the division winner finishes above .500.

Repoz Posted: July 19, 2008 at 08:02 AM | 22 comment(s)
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1. PJ Martinez Posted: July 19, 2008 at 10:09 AM (#2864735)

Beltre to the Twins does seem like a no-brainer. Does that tight-fisted billionaire still own the team?

2. Raskolnikov Posted: July 19, 2008 at 10:37 AM (#2864741)

If the Braves can get Bay without giving up Heyward or Schafer, I'd go and shoot Huntington myself.

3. Boots Day Posted: July 19, 2008 at 10:42 AM (#2864744)

I don't think Holliday is going to be traded, but Brian Fuentes almost certainly will be. I'm having a hard time getting a handle on his value: He's the best relief pitcher on the market, but at this point, you'd be trading for about 35 innings, because he's a free agent at the end of the season.

The Rockies supposedly asked for Ian Kennedy for him, which they won't get, unless maybe Hank Steinbrenner gets involved.

4. Z.V. Sanders Posted: July 19, 2008 at 12:06 PM (#2864774)

Why would Fuentes not be on the list, but Bedard is? Supposedly Bedard will be out until August, after the deadline has passed. So much for restocking the M's farm system.

5. The George Sherrill Selection Posted: July 19, 2008 at 12:08 PM (#2864775)

The Mariners don't really have anyone ready to step into third and come close to the production (both offense and defense) of Beltre. I can't see why they'd trade him. They're not that hard up for cash, and Bavasi isn't there to trade him for a bag of magic beans anymore.

6. s.zielinski Posted: July 19, 2008 at 01:50 PM (#2864844)

#2: The Pirates do not have to trade Bay. So, they have the leverage in these negotiations.

The Pirates can provide one-stop shopping to both the Rays and the Dodgers, two teams loaded with prospects and looking to make deals. Surely, Huntington could not mess up these opportunities.

7. Esoteric can feel Strasburg slowly slipping away Posted: July 19, 2008 at 02:00 PM (#2864848)

If Jon Daniels is going to trade Milton Bradley (and I think he should) then the Rays make an even better natural trading partner for the Rangers than the Tigers. They're desperate for solid offensive production, they have a hole that could be plugged in DH/RF, and they most certainly have the prospects (esp. pitching prospects) to trade to Texas. Surprised that Sheehan didn't mention them. Jason Bay might be a more natural fit for the Rays, but given the price that the Pirates are apparently demanding for Xavier Nady (arm & leg + mortal soul) I suspect their demands for Bay are even higher. Which is to say, David Price. And there's no way the Rays are dealing away Price. The way he's mowing down batters in the minors, he'll be in the rotation by mid-August.

Also, the M's are unlikely to trade Beltre unless the return is truly worth it. He's a fan favorite, and he brings good offense and superlative defense. I wouldn't rule out a trade, but the Twins just don't seem to have enough to offer for him to justify it. It's actually quite possible that the Mariners will attempt to extend him.

All in all, however, this isn't a bad article. Sheehan's thoughts re Dunn, Holliday, and Roberts are all well-taken.

8. ValueArb Posted: July 19, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#2864858)

Wait, we aren't trying to block Eric Byrne's contract? Why not? Bay makes more sense than Dunn because he's the better player, and because he pushes Byrnes to the bench. Byrnes will make a nice 4th outfielder, not in dollars per WARP, but in actually skill value. And it might provoke him into waiving his NTC so we can undo the franchises greatest mistake.

And Justin Upton's defense is horrid. Putting him and Dunn at the corners is a recipe for a Three Stooges movie. Don't get me wrong, if he was free I'd love to have Dunn and play him in front of EByrnes for the next three years. Justin will improve. Dunn would be very valuable this year. Again EByrnes may request a trade.

But from a financial/value perspective Dunn just doesn't make sense. He's not going to give us that much more in LF than Byrnes, we'd have a $25M left field combination. And if we get him for the stretch run we further gut our minor league system for short term gain, which is what go the team into it's current mess.

9. DFA Posted: July 19, 2008 at 02:15 PM (#2864860)

Roberts was strongly rumored to become a Cub for most of the off-season. The Orioles refused to move him, and seem unlikely to do so now, as they have him under contract through next year. That's shortsighted..

Shortsighted indeed. It's not easy to pull off ten consecutive losing seasons...being shortsighted sure helps...

10. akrasian Posted: July 19, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2864865)

The Pirates can provide one-stop shopping to both the Rays and the Dodgers, two teams loaded with prospects and looking to make deals. Surely, Huntington could not mess up these opportunities.

I'm not sure how good a match the Pirates and Dodgers are. Bay would be an upgrade over Ethier - but probably not enough for what the Pirates would demand, given what they're asking for Nady. And while it likely won't last, is a small sample size, etc - Nomar's been acceptable at shortstop, and is hitting well. Between that and the chance that Furcal will be back it doesn't make a ton of sense to give up a lot for Wilson. And keep in mind that Nomar helping the team to win would be good for Colletti's job security.

11. robinred Posted: July 19, 2008 at 02:53 PM (#2864880)

I agree with Eso on #6, WRT the Rays/Bradley.

Also, I have been a little surprised that I have seen little speculation about Brian Giles. Giles is hitting .333 on the road with a .413 OBP, and his contract is up with a 2009 club option at 9M. Don't know how a trade affects the option.

I don't know how he would feel about going somewhere else, since he is an SD native, and he lacks the power you want in a corner. But he could help several teams as a #2 hitter--the Mets, the Angels, the Rays, the Diamondbacks, maybe the White Sox.

Maddux has said he will not leave the west coast, and he has 6.27 road ERA, so he may retire, although my gut tells me he pitches next year or tries to.

12. CFBF: Now With the Dan Werr Seal of Approval Posted: July 19, 2008 at 03:02 PM (#2864884)

The Braves are in a very tough spot, likely to lose Mark Teixeira and watching a career year from Chipper Jones,

I was going to nit-pick this, but I just checked the stats, and yep, Chipper's noticeably better this year than he was in that extraordinary 1999 season. Cool.

13. Craig in MN Posted: July 19, 2008 at 03:05 PM (#2864885)

Also, the M's are unlikely to trade Beltre unless the return is truly worth it. He's a fan favorite, and he brings good offense and superlative defense. I wouldn't rule out a trade, but the Twins just don't seem to have enough to offer for him to justify it. It's actually quite possible that the Mariners will attempt to extend him.

Exactly. Casey Blake to the Twins for some bullpen candidates makes much more sense. Or Dallas McPherson from the Marlins for Livan Hernandez.

14. Justin Zeth Posted: July 19, 2008 at 03:23 PM (#2864891)

Ned can have Bay, Nady and Super Jack Wilson for the low, low price of Kemp, Ethier, Kershaw, LaRoche and Hu...

And Justin Upton's defense is horrid.

This is honestly the first I've heard this, that it's horried. The prevailing opinion seemed to be that his defense was decent-to-good. Sparked by this comment, I went to check the numbers, and he grades out at +2 in plus/minus, which ranks 12th among right fielders... not great, but acceptable. I still don't see any reason to think Upton's defense in right field is a detriment.

Oddly, Conor Jackson comes out better in left field (+1) than at first base (-6), but I assume that's just a small sample size issue (only 148 innings in LF). Dunn's awful in LF, of course, but so far this year the stats say he's having a good defensive year by his own standards (-2, 22nd among LFs). I doubt he's an upgrade over Jackson, but it's unlikely he could be much worse.

15. rlc Posted: July 19, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2864892)

The analysis on Roberts seems to contradict the title of the article.

Roberts was strongly rumored to become a Cub for most of the off-season. The Orioles refused to move him.
[...]
The White Sox have a terrible farm system, which would make it hard for them to pry Roberts away from a reluctant Orioles team. Still, he may be the one player on the market who makes enough of a difference to them to pursue.

MacPhail didn't get a good enough offer from the Cubs. What's the better offer from the White Sox that "makes sense?" Sheehan explains this in his next paragraph, which is unfortunately rendered in transparent pixels.

I think it would "make sense" for the Cardinals to trade Pujols to the Orioles, because the O's really need a first baseman who can hit. Can I write for Sports Illustrated now?

16. Dan Posted: July 19, 2008 at 03:43 PM (#2864894)

Oddly, Conor Jackson comes out better in left field (+1) than at first base (-6), but I assume that's just a small sample size issue (only 148 innings in LF). Dunn's awful in LF, of course, but so far this year the stats say he's having a good defensive year by his own standards (-2, 22nd among LFs). I doubt he's an upgrade over Jackson, but it's unlikely he could be much worse.

Honestly in the Dbacks games I've seen, Jackson looks decent in LF. He's not Carl Crawford or Holliday out there, but he looks pretty average, although his inexperience shows at times. To my eyes, he doesn't look like a butcher of the stripe of Manny or Carlos Lee. However, at first base he looks genuinely bad.

17. bfan Posted: July 19, 2008 at 03:55 PM (#2864899)

Anyone who watched last year's bidding war for Teixera (was it Angels, Dodgers, Braves?), which got the Rangers 5 pretty good prospects/players (2 in MLB already, and they may not be the best 2), would learn to keep asking high, and watch teams keep heaving offers over the transom, so I do not blame the Pirates for asking a whole, whole lot. Someone will believe they are one hitter away, panic to close out the competing offers, and fluch their minor league system to get Bay or Nady.

18. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: July 19, 2008 at 04:10 PM (#2864910)

I think it's very unlikely that the Sox give too much for Roberts or Giles. Don't get me wrong--they are a major improvement, but who would you sit? Giles would either have to displace Thome or someone inappropriate would have to play CF and Roberts would displace Ramirez, which would be an upgrade, but also block one of their top commodities going forward.

19. robinred Posted: July 19, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2864952)

I think it's very unlikely that the Sox give too much for Roberts or Giles.

WRT Giles, I agree. Roberts is a better player than Giles. I wasn't saying teams in it should give up a lot for Giles--but that he seems like a guy who could help who wouldn't cost all that much. I think his name will pop up some over the next two weeks. A .390 OBP from a LHB is pretty much always useful.

20. depletion Posted: July 19, 2008 at 10:21 PM (#2865259)

Regarding the Jason Bay segment: the Mets are not hoping for a return from Moises Alou. The GM acknowledged in print earlier this week that he is effectively out for the season.
Kind of surprised Joe missed this.

21. Lassus Posted: July 19, 2008 at 10:27 PM (#2865265)

I can't really imagine who we would trade for Bay at this point. Who's left that we want to spare?

Ollie? ;-)

22. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: July 19, 2008 at 10:32 PM (#2865269)

And it might provoke him into waiving his NTC so we can undo the franchises greatest mistake.
No, dammit! He's a fan favorite!
Sincerely,
Jeff Moorad

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S.I.: Sheehan: Eight trades that make sense

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