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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

S.I.: Verducci: How do you beat the Yankees? Smoltz has a radical idea

The Smoltz Effect: ~CRACK~ whizzzzzzzzzz ~CRACK~ whizzzzzzzzzz ~CRACK~ whizzzzzzzzzz…

1. As the postseason began, Cardinals pitcher John Smoltz gave me a stunning piece of advice about how to stop the Yankees this October. Remember, it was the powerful New York lineup that knocked Smoltz clear out of the American League and very nearly all the way into retirement with a resounding thumping back in August.

“I’ll tell you what I would do against them,” Smoltz said, “and I know nobody would ever do this. I would treat it like a spring training game with my pitchers. I would keep bringing in a fresh arm to pitch to them, rather than asking my starting pitcher to go deep into the game trying to get them out two, three, four times. They just wear out a pitcher.

“I know nobody would ever do it, because what message would people think you were giving your starting pitcher? But their lineup is so deep I would change pitchers every two or three innings, just like you do in spring training.”

I have to admit that Smoltz’s Spring Training Plan has some merit, if only to prove a point: The Yankees wear out pitchers like no other team in baseball, chiefly because they don’t chase pitches out of the strike zone and they hammer the ones in it. But if there is any team with a profile that resembles that of New York, it is its World Series opponent, the Phillies.

Repoz Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:56 PM | 30 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsNY YankeesPhiladelphia

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   1. Walks Clog Up the Bases  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:08 PM (#3367585)
I'm sure the Yankees would welcome the Phillies' pen with open arms.
   2. The Essex Snead  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:14 PM (#3367592)
But if there is any team with a profile that resembles that of New York, it is its World Series opponent, the Phillies.

Oh don't go and give Girardi more excuses to over-manage the pitching staff.
   3. bunyon  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:15 PM (#3367595)
You know what I would do? No pitcher faces more than one batter.



Of course, it's important to be the home-team.
   4. Jeff K.  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:16 PM (#3367596)
Yeah, that's pretty colossally ####### stupid right there. Not in theory, as long as that theory includes "having a pitching staff full of 10 guys who can each pitch multiple innings on zero or one day's rest, all of whom are of roughly equal value, and no more than two of whom have a profile more valuable as a starter than reliever", but in practice. In practice, this would be 34 innings the exact equivalent of "Why, Grady, why?"
   5. danielj  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:17 PM (#3367600)
Spoken like a 43-year old who has trouble pitching deep into ballgames.
   6. Nasty Nate  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:22 PM (#3367610)
how to waste Cliff Lee in one easy step
   7. SoSH U at work  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:23 PM (#3367611)
I'd go the other way and try to wring as many quality innings out of Cliff Lee's left arm as possible. Hell, I'd be tempted to see what Lee's got in his right arm.
   8. spycake  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:34 PM (#3367622)
It's not as if the Yankees have dominated opposing starters this postseason. Blackburn and Pavano both went through the order 2+ times without much damage, and Lackey and Saunders each had a strong start against them.

Heck, the Yankees offense, while timely and effective, has not been dominant this postseason. Game 1 against Minnesota and Game 4 against the Angels have been the only two times where they have really dominated -- the other 7 games, they've been kept in check pretty well.

Scratching out 3 runs off Sabathia, or knocking out Burnett or Pettitte before the 6th inning, is probably the best strategy to beat this Yankees team.
   9. bunyon  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:34 PM (#3367623)
Might ask him if he can pitch with his feet, too, SoSH.
   10. bunyon  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:36 PM (#3367625)
If you have a good (not great) pen, I can see pulling the guy after two trips through the rotation. The Yanks are deep and do really work the pitcher. Err on the side off pulling too soon, rather than too late.


Really, I think in teh WS, I'd have a guy up pretty much every inning. Not going balls out to get loose but staying kind of close. After the 5th, I'd have a guy an inning ready to come in on very short notice.
   11. The Essex Snead  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:39 PM (#3367628)
Might ask him if he can pitch with his feet, too, SoSH.

"Oh, he got TOEjammed there, Chip."
   12. "Andruw for HoF" sure died down  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:50 PM (#3367650)
The risk is that you run into a guy that just doesn't have it, and the Yankees score 5 in that inning. If a guy is pitching well and not tiring, there's no reason to pull him.
   13. spycake  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:52 PM (#3367652)
Really, I think in teh WS, I'd have a guy up pretty much every inning. Not going balls out to get loose but staying kind of close. After the 5th, I'd have a guy an inning ready to come in on very short notice.


From the ALCS, it seems like the stall tactic of throwing to first still works adequately too.

But yeah, it's probably a good idea to have almost a "second starter" ready to enter the game and take over in the early innings, if necessary.
   14. AROM  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:18 PM (#3367668)
How about Lee going as long as he can in his starts, and mix up the rest, try to get 3 innings each out of Pedro/Hamels and then the same out of Happ/Blanton?
   15. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Marching Through Georgia  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:21 PM (#3367671)
And what happens to Smoltz's idea if it goes into extra innings and the last home team pitcher gets smoked?
   16. Joe C and the Pop Culture Portmanteau  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:22 PM (#3367672)
How about Lee going as long as he can in his starts, and mix up the rest, try to get 3 innings each out of Pedro/Hamels and then the same out of Happ/Blanton?

Sounds great in DMB. But are you really going to tell your starting pitchers to do this for the World Series?
   17. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:33 PM (#3367682)
I can't remember who posted it yesterday, but I thought it was a brilliant quote from TLR - something about how the more you change pitchers, the closer you get to finding out who doesn't have good stuff that day.
   18. spycake  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:44 PM (#3367698)
the more you change pitchers, the closer you get to finding out who doesn't have good stuff that day.


Exactly. If your starter looks good through 3 innings, leave him in there.

This is also why I would like to see more 1-inning relievers stretched out, to at least be capable of pitching 3 innings sometimes. The setup-setup-closer thing for the 7th-8th-9th is fine when it works, but it's heartbreaking when one of those links breaks down and the others are already used up or incapable of picking up the slack.
   19. Los Angeles Softballer of Anaheim  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:59 PM (#3367716)
I used to do exactly this in Baseball Mogul: a staff of 10-12 young, cheap flamethrowers who could throw 3 innings every 3-4 days. Worked like a charm on the computer, like Joe C says, but I don't think this is something you could seriously consider in real life.
   20. Jeff K.  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 02:10 PM (#3367731)
I can't remember who posted it yesterday, but I thought it was a brilliant quote from TLR - something about how the more you change pitchers, the closer you get to finding out who doesn't have good stuff that day.

Somewhere up there, my dad is smiling. He used to say this every time a pitcher throwing well was pulled.

(Actually, no, somewhere up there he's screaming "I can't ####### BELIEVE YOU, OATES! Who are you bringing in now?! VOSBERG? He ####### sucks!")
   21. SouthSideRyan  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 03:21 PM (#3367811)
but I thought it was a brilliant quote from TLR - something about how the more you change pitchers, the closer you get to finding out who doesn't have good stuff that day.


Seems like an odd person to have that quote attributed to.
   22. SoSH U at work  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 03:24 PM (#3367814)
Seems like an odd person to have that quote attributed to.


A similar quote was in an old Abstract. I didn't think it was TLR who said it then, but maybe he's adopted it for usage.
   23. Nasty Nate  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 03:30 PM (#3367823)
I used to do exactly this in Baseball Mogul: a staff of 10-12 young, cheap flamethrowers who could throw 3 innings every 3-4 days.


how would you get the computer to employ this pitcher usage?

I remember in that game that the "short" reliever always averaged the most IP per appearance of the relievers, so I had to always put my swing starter in there.
   24. NYCTigersfan  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:17 PM (#3367871)
Seems like an odd person to have that quote attributed to.

Yeah. In the early 90s (maybe '93?) when the A's pitching staff was a disaster, TLR used a 3-pitcher-for-3-innings-each rotation.

I'm curious about Smoltz's idea. Is there any evidence the Yankees' production increases the 2nd, 3rd, 4th times they see a pitcher more than other teams? If not, it seems misguided.
   25. Weekly Journalist_  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 05:03 PM (#3367905)
this thread is amusing
   26. Mr. J. Penny Smoltzuzaka  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3368069)
Not a big surprise that Smoltz would come up with something like this - it's his way of covering his ass after proving he couldn't pitch against major league teams anymore.
   27. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life.  Posted: October 27, 2009 at 11:07 PM (#3368109)
But Smoltz isn't on the Phillies.
   28. OsunaSakata  Posted: October 28, 2009 at 09:16 AM (#3368326)
Somewhere up there, my dad is smiling. He used to say this every time a pitcher throwing well was pulled.

(Actually, no, somewhere up there he's screaming "I can't ####### BELIEVE YOU, OATES! Who are you bringing in now?! VOSBERG? He ####### sucks!")


Well, now he can scream it directly at Oates.
   29. OsunaSakata  Posted: October 28, 2009 at 09:22 AM (#3368329)
They got beaten by the Nats 2 out of 3 in the Bronx. Stop this nonsense that these Yanks are an all-time all-star team.
   30. Jose Canusee  Posted: October 28, 2009 at 11:12 AM (#3368459)
With either Happ or Blanton not starting the Phils will probably have one ready for long relief. And if someone did get knocked out they are in that spot 2 days later.
This actually might make more sense in the older days with fewer pitchers and more bench non-pitchers; if you have an early rally and your pitcher is doing so-so, you could go for the baseball equivalent of a fake punt and pinch-hit for the starter in the early innings.
But it would also be the baseball equivalent of going against a football defense that stuffs the run and switching to a shotgun-it might have some tactical benefit but there is the psychological effect of saying your opponent is so good you have to radically change your approach.
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