maybe those other GMs weren't on the chopping block like sabean is.

Two words: Mark Prior.

Maybe they're like Steve Treder, and think that since pitchers are likely to break down by age 30 anyway, they may as well use his pre-30 seasons. Those are the only years they have him for sure, too.

The A's went ahead and burned out their big three before free-agency; I fear that's going to be a trend that will counteract the pitch count trends.

My opinion on the matter is that injuries to pitchers as such probably can't be prevented with any reliability, but the seriousness of those injuries can be controlled somewhat. Torn rotator cuffs and labrums might come much more directly from overwork than strains and pulls, injuries to backs and legs, etc.

Two words: Mark Prior.

Not: Dusty Baker?

That's a shame. I saw him throw in Fresno this year and he's got good stuff. He'll be toast by 27.

Maybe they're like Steve Treder, and think that since pitchers are likely to break down by age 30 anyway, they may as well use his pre-30 seasons.

There was a quote from another team's front office guy in a recent Robo column that said the same thing - the Giants were being smart, that since Lincecum's a walking injury risk, they might as well get what they can out of him while they can...

Where's the article about Matt Cain?

Cain has been worked like a dog.
Cain has an actual injury history.
Cain's K rate is down.
Cain's walk rate is up.
Cain is younger.

Verducci got the right team, but the wrong pitcher.

Isn't there anything the pitcher can do to prevent his arm being toast before he can make the real $ in free agency?

Isn't there anything the pitcher can do to prevent his arm being toast before he can make the real $ in free agency?

Other than grooving a couple or regularly developing "twinges" around the one hundredth pitch, probably not.

Isn't there anything the pitcher can do to prevent his arm being toast before he can make the real $ in free agency?

As soon as you hit 100 pitches, grab your elbow and grimace in agony until the trainer takes you out of the game. The next day, tell the press that it was just cramps due to dehydration. Repeat every start until you've got your six years in.

Argh.

Isn't there anything the pitcher can do to prevent his arm being toast before he can make the real $ in free agency?

I'd recommend the post-draft $10 M signing bonus or ML contract as an excellent option.

Poor Lincecum only got $2M I read.

(Pretty sure I haven't hit the $1 M mark yet, I better get cracking!)

Isn't there anything the pitcher can do to prevent his arm being toast before he can make the real $ in free agency?

Well, it's a kind of dilemma, isn't it? In order to get that eight-figure multiyear contract, you have to establish that you are a stud starting pitcher. While establishing that, you risk injury before the money arrives. The better you establish that, the worse risk you are for the team that throws all that money at you. Fortunately teams seem more and more willing to lavish money on veteran starters who have never proven much of anything (Adam Eaton, e.g.)

211 IP? 110+ pitches several times? This is now defined as "abuse"? That's normal usage.

Look, if they Giants were giving him Gooden's workload, ok, that's taking too much out of a young pitcher. But I don't see how bad it can be to have a young pitcher pitch a perfectly normal full season. Will those 20 IP really be the difference between a torn and integral shoulder? I'm very skeptical that you're looking at that much marginal loss.

Matt, it's a big number for a 22-year-old.

And 190 isn't? 190 innings is a huge amount for a 22-year-old. So is 170.

My question is why those last 20 make the difference between "abuse" and "not abuse." The actual statistical studies done on workload showed changes at the 120+ pitch mark, when hit multiple times. And, of course, this fluctuates wildly between individual pitchers.

I think, in general, the move to keep young pitchers from throwing more than 120 pitches or more than 240 innings is good. I'm skeptical that there's much value in the margins between 100-110 and 190-210.

That's a shame. I saw him throw in Fresno this year and he's got good stuff. He'll be toast by 27.

Overreact much? My god, breakout the pitch forks and torches.

I'm not as worried about the pitch counts as I am about the projected 50+ inning increase over last year. Maybe it's just me.

Um, I didn't plant a flag in favor of 190 innings. Not sure where you're coming from.

170 is more defensible in that it's much closer to the number of innings he threw last year. Just as in running, you build gradually up to a target mileage to prevent injury, maybe the theory in baseball is to do the same.

I think a low pitch count target has several benefits. First, it prevents a pitcher from accumulating a ton of IP by virtue of the fact that he'll often get a relatively early hook. Second, it removes temptation from the manager to leave a pitcher in past his count. For instance, a 100 pitch count limit realistically means no more than around 110 pitches (going into a hitter with 97 thrown, long AB, pitcher gets pulled at 110, e.g.). A 110 or 120 pitch limit will lead to higher utilization both for that reason and the "well, he's throwing so well, let's just leave him out there" rationalization. Third, pitchers aren't as effective after throwing lots of pitches, so it actually will help most teams to replace tired starters with fresh bullpen guys (the D-Rays are an obvious exception to this... sheesh, their bullpen is awful).

Anyway, I'm not advocating for any specific policy with regards to Lincecum or to anyone else. I just see why it makes sense, and why if I was an owner or GM I would think hard about doing something to protect my pitchers.

I just see why it makes sense, and why if I was an owner or GM I would think hard about doing something to protect my pitchers.

Well, at some point you have to balance the player's interest against those of the team in both the short-term and the long-term. The Giants have a relatively old team, with some urgency to win now; I can see trying to push this year to get what they can, and worry about tomorrow later.

-- MWE