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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Sickels: Failed Prospect: Chad Hermansen

My 1997 Bowman #87 - Chad Hermansen RC is now down to $0.20. I’m hanging tough!

So, what happened here?

I have seen a lot of Hermansen over the years, and his problem is easy enough to diagnose. He can’t hit breaking balls. It was his weakness back in 2000 and it is his weakness now. He still has bat speed and power, but he’s very pitchable and hasn’t been able to get past a swing-from-the-heels approach for any length of time.

When he was young, the theory was that given his age that he would be able to resolve this problem eventually, but it never quite happened, granted his major league playing time was erratic and spread out, and the injuries did not help. But even if someone had given him 500 more at-bats to adjust to the majors, I doubt he would have been able to keep his batting average any higher than .240 at best, with a mediocre OBP and very high strikeout rate.

Lesson Learned:
Age-relative-to-league is important but not an absolute thing.
Some guys peak early and don’t develop their skills even if they are young for their leagues early in their career.

Repoz Posted: February 26, 2008 at 03:07 PM | 18 comment(s)
Related News: General, History, Pittsburgh

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1. vortex of dissipation Posted: February 26, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#2700508)

I have seen a lot of Hermansen over the years, and his problem is easy enough to diagnose. He can’t hit breaking balls.

So the only curves he can hit are hanging, Chad?

2. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: February 26, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#2700509)

So, what happened here?

He came up through the Pirates system. Case closed.

3. Shooty Is A One Man Legion Posted: February 26, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2700514)

So the only curves he can hit are hanging, Chad?

I think I speak for all Chads when I say, God I am sick of those jokes!

4. John M. Perkins Posted: February 26, 2008 at 04:26 PM (#2700515)

I saw Hermansen many times in his career. I always thought his fielding and plus arm was good enough for a long career. But because he was a power hitter, his fielding wasn't good enough. IOW, his hitting was so disappointing, that his glove and arm were overlooked.

5. Halofan Posted: February 26, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2700523)

Smells like Brandon Wood...

6. WTM Posted: February 26, 2008 at 04:47 PM (#2700542)

Maybe the saddest part of the Hermansen tale is that when many Pirate fans hear the word "prospect," they reflexively equate it with Hermansen. I think his failure played a big role in the hostility a lot of Pirate fans have to the idea of rebuilding, and fear of a negative reaction to any hint of rebuilding played a big role in the team's "strategies," to use the term loosely, under Kevin McClatchy.

7. rfloh Posted: February 26, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#2700547)

#6

Why do they not equate "prospect" with ARam? They both came up at the same time.

8. flournoy Posted: February 26, 2008 at 05:07 PM (#2700563)

Probably because Aramis Ramirez is the outlier, whereas Hermansen's career trajectory is much more the norm for Pirates' players. Of course, Ramirez was mishandled and dumped for pennies on the dollar (kind of like Jose Guillen), so maybe he's not all that unusual for a Pirate.

9. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 26, 2008 at 05:10 PM (#2700566)

"I stuck up for you Jobu. You no help me now...I say (forget) you Jobu. I do it myself."

10. Voros Posted: February 26, 2008 at 05:21 PM (#2700576)

Maybe the saddest part of the Hermansen tale is that when many Pirate fans hear the word "prospect," they reflexively equate it with Hermansen.

They might be better off equating it with Aramis Ramirez. Not that his fate was a whole lot better with the Pirates.

The guy who reminds me of Hermansen right now is Andy Marte. Same sort of thing. Marte, like Hermansen, never really did that well, just well for his age. Making him a good prospect, but only a prospect. I'd much rather guys just hit like Alex Gordon or Travis Hafner or Ryan Howard did. You don't have to worry about their age much since they don't have to get much better to be good MLB hitters. 1.000+ OPS totals know no age. :)

11. Dingbat Charlie Posted: February 26, 2008 at 05:36 PM (#2700585)

I'd much rather guys just hit like Alex Gordon or Travis Hafner or Ryan Howard did.

The Bucs have a similar guy now: Pearce

12. WTM Posted: February 26, 2008 at 05:37 PM (#2700587)

Probably because Aramis Ramirez is the outlier, whereas Hermansen's career trajectory is much more the norm for Pirates' players.

Yeah, something like that. The farm system back in 1997 was rated at or near the top by BA and heavily hyped in Pittsburgh, but things didn't exactly turn out well. Then we had years of Dave Littlefield assuring the fans that the farm system was in great shape and so things were certain to get better. Of course, that was a bunch of BS, but most fans probably don't follow the minors that closely. I see a lot of comments online about how rebuilding doesn't work, from people who don't distinguish between bad strategy and bad execution. (Of course, in Littlefield's case, there was no legitimate attempt to build through the farm system at all, just a lot of false claims that the team was doing that.) Hermansen seems to serve as a symbol for all this.

13. WTM Posted: February 26, 2008 at 05:38 PM (#2700589)

The Bucs have a similar guy now: Pearce

Unfortunately, it looks like Indianapolis is going to have Pearce.

14. Dingbat Charlie Posted: February 26, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2700590)

Unfortunately, it looks like Indianapolis is going to have Pearce.

I've been campaigning for the O's to trade some of their newly acquired pitching for Pearce, but as usual nobody listens to the Dingbat.

15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 26, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2700650)

I already posted this on Sickels's site in the comments, but McClendon completely overhauled Hermansen's swing before the start of the 2000 season. If you draw a line between the pre-overhaul part of his career and the post-overhaul part, it's like two completely different players.

I think he just lost his swing, and wasn't able to re-find it.

16. battlekow Posted: February 26, 2008 at 07:18 PM (#2700669)

I've been campaigning for the O's to trade some of their newly acquired pitching for Pearce, but as usual nobody listens to the Dingbat.

Maybe you should change your handle to Insightful Charlie.

17. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: February 26, 2008 at 11:45 PM (#2700792)

I think with a handle like "Dingbat" he's much more likely to be hired by Peter Angelos.

18. CFiJ Posted: February 27, 2008 at 06:48 AM (#2700868)

"I stuck up for you Jobu. You no help me now...I say (forget) you Jobu. I do it myself."

Epiphany. I just realized that this is exactly the line in the edited-for-TV version. I wonder if the writer/editor who used "forget" for "####" wasn't making a very oblique "Major League" reference.

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Sickels: Failed Prospect: Chad Hermansen

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