Sickels: Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects

Shame, the Forrest Weatherford III era that never was to be.

1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B: Good glove, should provide some power, not sure if he’ll hit enough to be a genuine star or just a solid player.
2) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade B-: Good plate discipline, should hit for average, but lack of home run power may make him a fourth outfielder. However, you have to like the rapid adjustment he made, and the power may still come.
3) Bud Norris, RHP, Grade B-: Throws hard, but doesn’t change speeds well and seems better-suited to bullpen work than starting.
4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B-: Very projectable young arm but will need time to develop.
5) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade B-: Another very projectable young arm and a local kid. For some reason I’m optimistic about him and Lyles.
6) Felipe Paulino, RHP, Grade C+: If healthy, could rank B- and ahead of Lyles and Seaton. Great stuff, but role and condition of arm are uncertain.
7) Drew Sutton, 2B, Grade C+: I see him as a useful role player due to broad secondary skills.
8) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C+: Hasn’t hit outside the Texas League. I’ve seen both Sutton and Johnson play. Johnson has better tools but Sutton is far more polished and skillful.
9) Sam Gervacio, RHP, Grade C+: Decent stuff and weird delivery, should be good middle reliever.
10) Chia-Jen-Lo, RHP, Grade C+: Hard to grade. Scouting reports indicate a polished guy who could be a decent fourth/fifth starter or a good long reliever, but doesn’t have upside beyond that.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

This is an extremely thin system right now, but the 2008 draft looks somewhat promising and they seem to be taking the need to rebuild more seriously. I think Castro is pretty solid, but I think there were other guys available in the draft who would make bigger impacts. It says a lot about the system that the number two hitter was a pitcher a year ago. Sutton looks like a good role player to me, but I’m not totally convinced about Chris Johnson yet. Johnson has better tools, but Sutton looks more likely to actually live up to his potential. 2008 outfield draftees Steele, Shuck, and Austin are all interesting, but for very different reasons.

Pitching-wise, there are no definite impact guys right now. Norris has a lively arm but I have doubts about him as a starter. Lyles and Seaton could both be excellent, but they carry the risks typical for projectable young pitchers and won’t advance quickly. After that you have a bunch of fifth starter/reliever types.