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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, December 21, 2008Sickels: New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2009As drunk-haired Shemp used to say..."The Niese is nice!”
Repoz
Posted: December 21, 2008 at 09:05 AM | 17 comment(s)
Related News: General, Minor Leagues, Prospect Reports, Scouting, NY Mets |
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Will all the doubters please stand tall now, because they may be hard to find in a couple of years.
Will all the doubters please stand tall now, because they may be hard to find in a couple of years.
Not that I'm a doubter, but 150 Dominican Winter League at bats say virtually nothing about his furture prospects.
Escobar hit .310/.389/.584 in the Sallie League at 19... His "reputation" was based upon PRODUCTION... then he got hurt, and hurt and hurt again, and again... (Nick Johnson is durable compared to Escobar)
it's pretty clear that Escobar IS an MLB caliber hitter, it's also clear that he's so brittle that he's never going to accumulate 200+ PAs in a season ever again...
I really see very little similarity between FMART and Escobar- FMART was rushed, maybe he would have hit in the Sallie League at 19 what Escobar did-- but FMart was in AA- FMARt does have a worrying tendency to nagging injuries- but hopefully it will not morph into an Escobar like tendency towards catastrophic injuries
I'm really surprised that Josh Thole or Francisco Pena didn't crack the top-20. There must be huge questions about Thole's defense because his .300/.382/.427 batting line is impressive for a 21-year old catcher in the FSL. If his defense is just adequate, he's a solid prospect. Pena's defense is supposed to be strong and he held his own (.688 OPS) in the SAL. Obviously, that's nothing special but he was only 18 years old.
Sickels seems relatively high on Moviel and Gee which I am happy about because they are personable favorites of mine.
If there are other guys you think should be included, let me know. Also, what is the deal with Nate Vineyard? I keep hearing he has quit baseball, but I haven’t found any details about this. I don’t want to dump him until I find out exactly what’s going on.
I hadn't heard about this. Vineyard was one of the Mets higher picks in the 2007 draft.
I've always wondered this too and it's one of those things that's really, really, really, really hard to study without big gaping holes in whatever it is you may find. Correlation/causation is just death when looking at minor leaguers progress.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised what the final answer would be on something like this, but I'd be very surprised if anybody came anywhere close to finding it.
I've read about this phenomenon with soccer - probably you have too - or did you just come up with it on your own?
The kids that are old for their year are overrepresented among the pros. But the theoretical explanation has nothing to do with struggling-vs-dominating. Within any one year's group the more mature kids are more likely to receive playing time and advanced training.
LINK
I have no idea what to think about FMart. When he signed and busted out with his 900 OPS in A ball, I thought that he was a potential uber-prospect, maybe even on the level of Andruw Jones or Ken Griffey Jr. Obviously, he isn't even sniffing that anymore.
I am not smart enough to interpret his batting results. His numbers are just OK, but he is very young. I am not able to mentally calculate what that means. But I am not in Griffey world anymore ... now I am thinking about Garret Anderson or Paul O'Neill.
A similar phenomenon was observed in academic success as well. I seem to recall literature from economics of education that suggest that, all other things being equal, students who tend to be the second oldest quartile of their class had superior rates on a range of secondary achievements: college placement, graduating with their class, etc. The youngest quartile seemed to be the most disadvantaged, followed by the oldest.
But there's some dispute whether or not that performance difference is strictly a matter of age in the classroom or another widespread environmental effect. For example, some believe that infant exposure to pesticides retard cognitive development--which would seem to coincide with the data as well.
Miguel Cabrera posted a .747 OPS in High-A as a 19 year old before busting out as a 20 year old in AA. Obviously, not everyone is Miguel Cabrera but there's plenty of time for Fernando to develop into a truly elite talent.
No, I definitely read about it or talked about it with someone b/c I was thinking about that soccer study (and the different interpretation) when I wrote that. Was that Stephen Levitt who looked at that? The result kind of surprises me or at least works against my theory.
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