1) Wilmer Flores, SS-3B, Grade B+: I might take some flack for this, but in this case I think his upside is higher than F-Mart. If I could have just one of them, I’d pick Flores.
2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors.
3) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B: I’ve liked him since high school. He’s not an ace but should be a fine inning-eater.
4) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade B: Higher ceiling than Niese, but not as refined and command still needs work.
5) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B: Assuming he’s healthy, I think he’s going to be a strong across-the-board player with a high OBP.
6) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+: Could be a star if it all comes together, but still rather raw. Considering B- but for me that’s aggressive for a rookie ball guy.
7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade C+ Pitching version of Marte: lots of talent, but skills are in the developmental stages and may not pan out.
8) Bobby Parnell, RHP, Grade C+: Stats don’t match scouting reports, but he has a good sinker and could be an effective setup man.
9) Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade C+: Another bullpen option who gets ground balls.
10) Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+: Held his own after being rushed, which you have to respect, but he may just be a good platoon bat, not a regular.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
The Mets continue to make a big push in Latin America, and they seem to have a knack for finding some interesting pitchers in the later rounds of the draft. They like to rush guys quickly, particularly pushing the Latin American kids hard, F-Mart being the best example. Whether this helps or hinders development remains to be seen. They could use more depth in position players. They have the financial resources to be a lot more aggressive in the draft than they have been, so there’s really no excuse for this NOT to be a good farm system. I think it ranks about the middle of the pack right now. They have made significant progress and there is quite a bit of upside here, but more needs to be done.
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Will all the doubters please stand tall now, because they may be hard to find in a couple of years.
Will all the doubters please stand tall now, because they may be hard to find in a couple of years.
Not that I'm a doubter, but 150 Dominican Winter League at bats say virtually nothing about his furture prospects.
Escobar hit .310/.389/.584 in the Sallie League at 19... His "reputation" was based upon PRODUCTION... then he got hurt, and hurt and hurt again, and again... (Nick Johnson is durable compared to Escobar)
it's pretty clear that Escobar IS an MLB caliber hitter, it's also clear that he's so brittle that he's never going to accumulate 200+ PAs in a season ever again...
I really see very little similarity between FMART and Escobar- FMART was rushed, maybe he would have hit in the Sallie League at 19 what Escobar did-- but FMart was in AA- FMARt does have a worrying tendency to nagging injuries- but hopefully it will not morph into an Escobar like tendency towards catastrophic injuries
I'm really surprised that Josh Thole or Francisco Pena didn't crack the top-20. There must be huge questions about Thole's defense because his .300/.382/.427 batting line is impressive for a 21-year old catcher in the FSL. If his defense is just adequate, he's a solid prospect. Pena's defense is supposed to be strong and he held his own (.688 OPS) in the SAL. Obviously, that's nothing special but he was only 18 years old.
Sickels seems relatively high on Moviel and Gee which I am happy about because they are personable favorites of mine.
If there are other guys you think should be included, let me know. Also, what is the deal with Nate Vineyard? I keep hearing he has quit baseball, but I haven’t found any details about this. I don’t want to dump him until I find out exactly what’s going on.
I hadn't heard about this. Vineyard was one of the Mets higher picks in the 2007 draft.
I've always wondered this too and it's one of those things that's really, really, really, really hard to study without big gaping holes in whatever it is you may find. Correlation/causation is just death when looking at minor leaguers progress.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised what the final answer would be on something like this, but I'd be very surprised if anybody came anywhere close to finding it.
I've read about this phenomenon with soccer - probably you have too - or did you just come up with it on your own?
The kids that are old for their year are overrepresented among the pros. But the theoretical explanation has nothing to do with struggling-vs-dominating. Within any one year's group the more mature kids are more likely to receive playing time and advanced training.
LINK
I have no idea what to think about FMart. When he signed and busted out with his 900 OPS in A ball, I thought that he was a potential uber-prospect, maybe even on the level of Andruw Jones or Ken Griffey Jr. Obviously, he isn't even sniffing that anymore.
I am not smart enough to interpret his batting results. His numbers are just OK, but he is very young. I am not able to mentally calculate what that means. But I am not in Griffey world anymore ... now I am thinking about Garret Anderson or Paul O'Neill.
A similar phenomenon was observed in academic success as well. I seem to recall literature from economics of education that suggest that, all other things being equal, students who tend to be the second oldest quartile of their class had superior rates on a range of secondary achievements: college placement, graduating with their class, etc. The youngest quartile seemed to be the most disadvantaged, followed by the oldest.
But there's some dispute whether or not that performance difference is strictly a matter of age in the classroom or another widespread environmental effect. For example, some believe that infant exposure to pesticides retard cognitive development--which would seem to coincide with the data as well.
Miguel Cabrera posted a .747 OPS in High-A as a 19 year old before busting out as a 20 year old in AA. Obviously, not everyone is Miguel Cabrera but there's plenty of time for Fernando to develop into a truly elite talent.
No, I definitely read about it or talked about it with someone b/c I was thinking about that soccer study (and the different interpretation) when I wrote that. Was that Stephen Levitt who looked at that? The result kind of surprises me or at least works against my theory.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main