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Friday, April 10, 2009

Sickels: Not a Rookie: Pablo Sandoval

“Bring your own lampshade, somewhere there’s a party”

As you know, Sandoval had a remarkable ‘08 season, hitting .359/.412/.597 in 68 games for San Jose, then .337/.364/.549 in 44 games for Double-A Connecticut, followed by a .345/.357/.490 mark in 41 games for the Giants, just edging past the rookie eligibility limit. The defense issue is still kind of strange; he’ll likely end up fantasy-qualifying at third base, first base, and catcher this year. Is the bat for real? Although I don’t think he’s going to hit .345 over a full season, yes I think his bat is legitimate. He will never be a walk machine, but he seems like a .real 280-.300 hitter to me. He’s one of those players who makes “hard contact” even on pitches most hitters shouldn’t swing at. Such hitters can win batting titles when things go well, and Sandoval does have that kind of potential. He really snuck up on both statheads and scouts last year.

PECOTA comps are all over the map and show how odd of a player Sandoval is: Arquimidez Pozo, Benito Santiago, Ruben Sierra, Leo Hernandez, Pedro Munoz, Jose Desa, Jose Guillen, Ron Jones, Ivan Rodriguez, Victor Diaz, Darryl Motley, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Baerga, and Richard Hidalgo all show up. Talk about a huge range of possible outcomes.

For 2009, projections 

PECOTA      .289/.329/.455
Shandler:   .294/.319/.482
James:      .320/.346/.500
ZIPS        .284/.313/.455
CHONE       .283/.315/.426

Repoz Posted: April 10, 2009 at 07:54 AM | 19 comment(s)
  Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Projections, ZIPS, San Francisco

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   1. PreservedFish  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 09:33 AM (#3133168)
I went to a preseason game. Sandoval pinch-hit. As he stepped into the batter's box he suddenly charged a few steps into the infield. He looked like a bull trying to intimidate a matador. Does he always do that? He smoked a double on the first pitch he saw.
   2. zenbitz  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 11:08 AM (#3133247)
FAT ICHIRO!
   3. Milford only did it for health reasons  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 11:09 AM (#3133248)
Yesterday the Brewers intentionally walked him. It was his first walk of the season and likely to be his last walk until the next time he's intentionally walked.

Rich Aurilia, the player the Brewers walked Sandoval to get to, promptly hit into a double play.

Sandoval's next at bat: he flipped a curve ball easily three inches off the outside corner into left field for a single. Then Rich Aurilia promptly hit into a double play.

As far as the projections go, Sandoval can't hit fastballs in on his hands and up. If he doesn't lay off those pitches or figure out how to hit them he'll put up the CHONE numbers or worse. Otherwise, he could put up the James numbers--the guy can hit everything but the fastball on the hands.
   4. The Essex Snead  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 11:13 AM (#3133251)
"Then Rich Aurilia promptly hit into a double play" has the potential to be the next "and Mike Crudale."
   5. 3Com Park  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 11:52 AM (#3133279)
Rich Aurilia is filling the giant hole left by the departure of Pedro Feliz.

Sandoval consistently hits the ball harder than anybody.
   6. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life.  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 11:57 AM (#3133280)
Then Rich Aurilia promptly hit into a double play.

Sandoval could be the first player to have more home runs than runs scored in a season. Every time he gets on base that will happen.
   7. AROM  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3133296)
Let's see.

The Orioles called Matt Wieters up from AAA. He will be their regular catcher for the rest of the year. Then Rich Aurilia promptly hit into a double play.

The Chicago Cubs raised ticket prices by an average of 2.50 per seat. Then Rich Aurilia promptly hit into a double play.

Before the game, Bruce Springsteen sang the national anthem. Then Rich Aurilia promptly hit into a double play.

It works.
   8. Cabbage  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3133298)
the first player to have more home runs than runs scored in a season

huh?
   9. The Mighty Quintana  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 01:11 PM (#3133337)
Definitely on the "fun to watch" list....Baerga seems like a good comp, hopefully Sandoval's career lasts longer.
   10. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life.  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 01:15 PM (#3133343)
Cabbage: it could happen if he gets injured in the middle of a home run, and then the pinch runner gets credit for the run scored.
   11. Dingbat Charlie  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 01:18 PM (#3133346)
everybody loves a cuddly slugger.
   12. zonk  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 01:23 PM (#3133353)
"Then Rich Aurilia promptly hit into a double play" has the potential to be the next "and Mike Crudale."


We'll have to see what Derek Lee has to say about that.
   13. Hack Wilson  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 01:24 PM (#3133356)
I caught part of a game this week and heard the nickname "PANDA" applied to him.
   14. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 01:27 PM (#3133360)
Cabbage: it could happen if he gets injured in the middle of a home run, and then the pinch runner gets credit for the run scored.

Or if Robin Ventura is on first when Pablo hits the jack.
   15. Justin T  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 01:31 PM (#3133370)
I caught part of a game this week and heard the nickname "PANDA" applied to him.

Yesterday they went all the way to "Kung-Fu Panda" once.
   16. Cabbage  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 02:16 PM (#3133427)
Aha. thanks.
   17. Cuban X Senators  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 02:30 PM (#3133448)
Which comes first the cuddly bear nickname or being stuck between being a catcher and a third baseman?

"Sugarbear" Floyd Rayford meet "KungFu Panda" Pablo Sandoval.
   18. Repoz  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 02:30 PM (#3133449)
The Swingin' Cuellobreaker!
   19. Blastin  Posted: April 10, 2009 at 10:46 PM (#3134105)
Would it be a dorky thing for me to say that this guy is really good in Baseball Mogul? Yes, I think it would be.

In this imaginary world A-Rod also never posts an OPS over 900 again, and Rivera is still pitching past 700 saves in 2016.

Back to Korean spring. It's 82 degrees here. Woo!
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