Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Is this batch Goodenough? Time will tell.
1) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+: Looks like the best combination of projection and performance in the organization.
2) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade B+: Trying to decide between a Grade B+ and a straight B for this one. I’m willing to cut him some slack for one more season. He could do much better out of Wilmington.
3) Aaron Crow, RHP, Grade B: Want to see some actual pro data before going higher with the grade, but I like him a lot and he shouldn’t need a lot of development time.
4) Tim Melville, RHP, Grade B: Needs to sharpen up his command a bit, but projects as a number two starter if everything comes together and he stays healthy.
5) Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade B: I like him a lot, too, although I don’t think he has quite as much projection as Melville. Crow, Melville, and Duffy could rank 3-4-5 in any order.
6) Wil Myers, C, Grade B: Love the bat, not sure about the defense. Need more pro data before going higher with the grade.
7) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade B-: A difficult grade. Will the lasik surgery fix whatever was bothering him in ‘09? If so, could vault back to the top of the list.
8) Carlos Rosa, RHP, Grade B-: His numbers at Omaha are better than they look, and he has the arm strength to be a solid reliever.
9) David Lough, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Good tools, started to put things together this year, but turns 24 in January and I wish he walked more.
10) Jordan Parraz, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Good tools, really exploded this year, but injury problems and age (now 25) limit his grade.
...Things are much different on the hitting side. Moustakas and Hosmer were big disappointments this year. Both of them are still young, and both of them had some possibly-extenuating circumstances. But the fact remains that both of them are corner players who didn’t hit as well as expected and have a lot to prove in 2010. I cut Moustakas some slack on the grade because he did hit well in 2008, but graded Hosmer a bit more roughly because he hasn’t done much at all in pro ball yet.
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Certainly he's not the son of former Royal's closer Jeff is he?
I like Montgomery quite a bit. I like Melville. Both have quite a bit of upside.
After that...well. Rosa should be a decent reliever. Bianchi could become a decent shortstop, or perpetually hurt. Or a one year wonder. Giovatella apparently can't field well enough to stick at 2B, and can't hit well enough to play anywhere else. Sample throws hard but can't find the strike zone. Lough and Parraz both had great years but are too old to project as much more than role players. Crow, Myers and Dwyer were all fine picks, but have barely played any pro ball to make much of a judgment on. Sample can't hit the broadside of a barn. Many of the 11-20 pitchers from last year's list - Daniel Gutierrez, Kelvin Herrera, Blake Wood, Julio Pimentel. Dan Cortes were hurt, ineffective or jailed this year.
And then Moose and Hosmer have been pretty big disappointments thus far.
Its still early and I guess some of these guys could turn it around and surprise, but Dayton wanted us to "trust the process" and judge him on his minor league development. Well, thus far, he's failing at that nearly as badly as he's failing at assembling a MLB roster. And why should I get excited about Montgomery when he's just going to trade him to Seattle for Carlos Silva?
Moustakas was in Wilmington this year. Think Sickels meant he could do much better out of Northwest Arkansas?
The encouraging thing about Hosmer's season is that the walk rates were acceptable and the strikeout rates not too bad. The discouraging thing is that the power stroke isn't coming along - he's just not driving the ball at all, hitting the ball on the ground an awful lot. He hit very poorly at home at both levels, and LHP are killing him. He absolutely needs to take a step forward this year, and while I think he will this organization's track record doesn't give you a lot of faith.
-- MWE
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