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1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright
4. Grady Sizemore
5. Chase Utley
6. Tim Lincecum
7. Evan Longoria
8. Ryan Braun
9. Brandon Webb
10. Cole Hamels
Also to 4 shouldnt Santana still be in the top ten if not still the top pitcher. Hes still fairly young and I would probably rather have him over any other pitcher for the next 6 years. I love Lincecum as much as the next guy, but he still walks too many guys and isn't efficient enough to be the most valuable pitcher if you ask me.
Not a chance. From everything I know Pedro is way too driven, and maybe psycho, to give up thinking he is anything but a total badass when it comes to baseball.
2006-08
146 SPs have 200+ IP, by ERA+ Zambrano is 16th on the list - given that there are 30 teams, at least 14 have #1s who are worse than Zambrano.
2006-08 he's 9th in IP, 11th in Ks
This year, among pitchers with 125+ ip, he's 21st in ERA+
What is the definition of a number 1 starter?
This
cheater...
There's only one Pedro even if he's not PEDRO anymore.
I think you are severely overestimating Pedro Guerrero's popularity.
No, I think he was referring to Pedro Cerrano.
i'm shocked by how far Beltran fell.
I'm betting that Reyes is somewhere near the top 10. 125 OPS+, good defense, and young at a key position is pretty big. He's not D-Wright, but he's not chopped liver.
#1 slot: ERA+ around 120, and about 210 IP
#2 slot: ERA+ around 106, and about/just under 200 IP
#3 slot: ERA+ around 96, and about 190 IP
#4 slot: ERA+ around 89, and about/just over 180 IP
#5 slot: ERA+ around 80, and abtou 170 IP
Want some fun? Try to figure how much value Zambrano's bat adds to his overall value. It isn't that difficult - someone figured it for Marquis when he came to the Cubs. Figure what the RC/27 outs a normal NL pitcher puts up (easy to figure w/ b-ref's splits), see how many RC a normal pitcher would've generated in the amount of outs Zambrano has created, compare with the RC he's actually created, and apply to his RA/ER totals to retabulate his ERA & ERA+.
My own hunch is that he's worth an extra 10 runs over a normal pitchers with his bat, especially after today's dinger.
Its impossible to get a feel for a half-completed list but the name that stands out as too low is Billingsley. A 23 year-old whose pitched 400 innings with a 135 ERA+ and a K per inning is a pretty nice piece to build a team around.
!?
Not that Rodriguez is a slouch in that department. I don't see any reason to think he won't still be at least productive at 38, 39, 40.
Albert Pujols
Evan Longoria
Brian McCann
Justin Upton
Ryan Braun
Josh Hamilton
Brandon Webb
Jose Reyes
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Hanley Ramirez
Scott Kazmir
Chase Utley
Cole Hamels
Grady Sizemore
Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Justin Morneau
Joe Mauer
Ryan Howard
Alex Rodriguez
Felix Hernandez
C.C. Sabathia
They are in the order I thought of them, not ranked. It doesn't leave any room for Matt Garza, James Shields, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Jay Bruce, among others. Tough crowd!
EDIT: Looking at some stats, I think I'd dump Ryan Howard off that list and give his spot to one of those four guys I just mentioned.
No way can HanRam not be AT LEAST top 10.. even with his defensive issues. You don't see guys with all around skills like that very often. And he is still 24 and super-toolsy, it is very possible his defense could improve.
I like Longoria alot but I can't see him in the top 3-5, much less #1 overall
Totally agreed. Because he's on my fantasy team, I've followed him closely, and I'm deeply impressed. The only under 25 pitcher who I would definitely take over him is Lincecum, with Joba getting some consideration.
I'm not sure why he's not talked about more often, especially given his playing for the Dodgers.
He's not quite as valuable as a 30 year old shortstop with a career 98 OPS+, unfortunately.
Try again
Hm?
D'oh.
My bad.
He's not Fielder with the stick or age-wise, but he should age better and is a very good defensive 1B, Pujols-lite.
Kershaw almost certainly makes it in, but I'd not put him above Billingsley at this stage.
My top 5 guess: Pujols, Wright, Grady, A-Rod, Hanley. Hanley's defense takes him down a peg. It's kinda sad to think that V-Mart was (I believe) one of the top 2 catchers on the list last year and now he doesn't even make the honorable mention.
They've been part of a predictably bad White Sox team that will win only 78 games. That will be enough to top Minnesota (which will win only 73 games), but not enough to catch those two juggernauts, Cleveland (92 wins) and Detroit (90 wins).
Or so PECOTA told me before the season started.
EDIT: this is the same reason I'd be shocked if Josh Hamilton made the top 25.
i bet you a million dollars he does.
Hamilton will be top 25. Implied by the comment on Volquez I think. They did say they'll weigh scouting along with stats, and Hamilton as a former can't-miss guy passes in that regard. IIRC, BPro has said there's no model with which to predict Hamilton's development. My guess is 18-25, just b/c he's an OF with a lowish walk rate.
I think Quentin makes it. He is huge this year and has only last year's struggles on his resume; he excelled in the minors and even the MLB before that.
As much as I enjoy watching Prince hit his defense has regressed, his baserunning is nonexistent and if he's not slugging over .550 his actual value really isn't what folks think.
Good call. Stick-wise--at least this year--he's probably better than Prince since his numbers are depressed by PETCO quite a bit. He's a very underrated player.
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
David Wright
Grady Sizemore
Chase Utley
Tim Lincecum
Evan Longoria
Ryan Braun
Brandon Webb
Cole Hamels
Alex Rodriguez
Josh Hamilton
Jose Reyes
Miguel Cabrera
Brian McCann
Jake Peavy
Joe Mauer
CC Sabathia
Jay Bruce
Johan Santana
Scott Kazmir
Carlos Quentin (?)
Ian Kinsler (?)
Justin Upton (?)
David Ortiz (?)
Pretty confident about the first 22, less so about the last four. I think Quentin makes it. Not sure about the other three.
I'm pretty sure a 32 year old DH who spent half the season being injured isn't going to make the list, even if he's been tearing the cover of the ball over the last month. IIRC, Silver even mentioned that he got burned by Ortiz this year in the article.
Awww, it reminds me of that Tigers fan who complained about Chris Shelton not making this list a couple years ago.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7975
Will Hardy be traded this offseason to make way for Escobar? If so, what will the Brewers want back? Pitching prospects?
(EDIT: Actually, Ryan Braun is rating pretty well in LF, average to above average.)
EDIT: Forgot Kershaw again. Boot that last four-man tossup and include Kershaw instead.
I don't know about Dice-K. I think there are two starters on his staff I'd rather build around over him: Beckett and Lester.
My vote would go to Lincecum. He's just an insane talent.
As long as you don't count Brandon Webb as a pitcher.
This isn't homerism. JP and JJ are almost the same player and JJ is a year younger. How can you have one and not the other?
As for Escobar, Justin has it correct. Weeks is gone. The team leadership was hoping that the Durham trade would jab Rickie to give a good push toward the finish while improving his trade value. Hasn't really happened though Rickie has played a BIT better in August. At the plate anyway. In the second half alone he has blown a half dozen double plays.
Weeks is frustrating because over the course of his career he scores 114 runs per 600 at bats. He has a career OBP of .351. His career stolen base percentage is 85.2.
Yet his defense is still bad, worse yet he chokes in the field late in the game and he just routinely makes dumb decisions on the basepaths and in the field.
He's a poor man's infield version of Lonnie Smith.
Brian McCann
Joe Mauer
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Chase Utley
Robinson Cano
David Wright
Evan Longoria
Ryan Braun
Alex Rodriguez
Jose Reyes
Hanley Ramirez
Troy Tulowitzki
Grady Sizemore
Jay Bruce
Josh Hamilton
Justin Upton
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb
Tim Lincecum
Cole Hamels
Jon Lester
Jake Peavy
CC Sabathia
Scott Kazmir
I don't think they like Howard very much. I can't see Morneau on without Howard. Both Tulowitzki and Cano are having terrible years, but they seem like they types who would profile well.
Wright over Albert?
This makes sense to me. As good as Webb is, he's basically an NL version of Roy Halliday (which is not at all meant to be an insult). Essentially, he's the sort of guy who could spend a decade challenging for the title of best pitcher in the league every season without ever putting together the sort of transcendent season associated with the true inner circle hall of famer - Maddox, Clemens, Pedro, Randy and so on.
That being said, his style of pitching is likely to leave him as a Hall of Famer (or damn close) by the time he's done. The same is a possibility for Halladay.
One is 3 years younger, plays 3B, and doesn't have a partially torn ligament in his elbow (as well as the extended list of injuries which Pujols has mostly managed to play through). It's a decision I can agree with, and I'm definitely not a Mets (or Wright) fan.
They have got to stop using FRAA.
Wright over Albert?
FRAA has Wright as a superlative defensive 3rd baseman.
There's not really much to talk about. Beckett is about 50 spots to high. He belongs in the HM category.
For all of these years, I had Ryan confused with someone who likes baseball.
:>
Or your opinion of him is too low, and he is about right.
Hey! I like baseball. I just don't like what the Mets play.
There are lots of players with one good year on the list.
Webb has the higher career ERA+ than every one of Santana, Sabathia, Peavy and Lincecum. His career ERA+ is higher than Sabathia's best season. I can understand putting Santana and Lincecum ahead of Webb, but I think it's ridiculous to rank Sabathia and Peavy ahead of Webb. You are greatly underestimating how dominant Webb can be when you say that he'll never put together that "transcendent" season. Sabathia and Peavy have already put together their transcendent seasons and they'd just be another drop in the bucket of Webb's career.
Actually, here's a list:
TOO HIGH (at least 5 spots)
Evan Longoria
Joe Mauer
CC Sabathia
Curtis Granderson
Josh Beckett
Justin Upton
TOO LOW (at least 5 spots)
Albert Pujols (should be -2nd)
Brandon Webb
Ryan Braun
Tim Lincecum
But it's a good list. And I'm sure in a year I'll look back at my modifications and chortle at how stupid I was.
And Corey Hart is 25 and is the best rf in the NL.
Just asking. If someone can enlighten me I would be grateful.
I will say, Wright has improved at D.
He isn't that good.
I never discussed the relative ranking of Peavy and Sabathia, only Webb and Lincecum. If you want my opinion, I would have also put him ahead of Peavy, and about even with Sabathia (who is 2 years younger, and has thrown 400 more MLB innings than Webb, which also matters when projecting ahead).
With respect to Webb, what would you say are the odds that his performance level suddenly shifts, and he throws together a full season (or string of seasons) with ERA+ of 200 or greater, or a string of 300+ K seasons? Because that's what I was talking about when I referenced the inner circle of Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Johnson.
Trust me when I say I'm not underrating Webb. Unless, of course, you think the statement "he's the sort of guy who could spend a decade challenging for the title of best pitcher in the league every season" is somehow an insult. Webb is a great pitcher, and will likely end his career under serious consideration for the Hall of Fame, and that's pretty high praise in itself.
Curtis Granderson
What? Why? Guys who slug > .500 with GG defence in Centre are pretty hard to find. His skill set is a good bet to age well.
Sabathia, Reyes, Mauer too high, Webb and Cabrera too low. I know Verlander is having a poor year, but I think he should be in the bottom 25 somewhere. I mean, what has Felix Hernandez really done since that one September?
I agree that it's a good list overall.
Because conventional wisdom was that last year was his peak season, and that his lefty/righty splits would prevent him from staying at an elite level going forward.
This is Hardy's "break out" year and he's still 56th among position players in VORP. He's an excellent complementary player, but he's not one of the top 50 players in the league to build your team around.
The same thing could be said about Corey Hart who this season is 81st among position players in VORP. If Corey Hart is the best player on your team, you're in a lot of trouble.
Post a 127 ERA+ as a 22 year old.
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