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Thursday, August 21, 2008

Silver: PECOTA’s top 50 players

Welcome to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft. We will attempt to answer this question: If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? That is, which players would you take—and in what order would you take them—if your goal was to win as many championships as possible over the medium-to-long-term?

Dustin Pedroia: Better than Carlos Beltran.

Also, good lord, Matt Wieters is killin’ it.

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 21, 2008 at 04:18 PM | 187 comment(s)
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1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:14 PM (#2912105)

Only the first half of the list? Or am I missing something?

2. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:17 PM (#2912109)

I don't think Billingsley should be ranked below Chamberlain. Man, the Dodgers are loaded. Billingsley, Kershaw, Kemp, Loney, and Martin. They also have guys like Broxton and Kuo who are still pretty young that any team would love to have.

3. Eric J Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:19 PM (#2912111)

Check back tomorrow for the top 25.

4. Kyle S at work Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:27 PM (#2912115)

This is just 26-50. 1-25 is coming tomorrow. Let's predict the top 10! Here's my go:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright
4. Grady Sizemore
5. Chase Utley
6. Tim Lincecum
7. Evan Longoria
8. Ryan Braun
9. Brandon Webb
10. Cole Hamels

5. Kyle S at work Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#2912117)

I wonder where he'll put Jay Bruce. He has to crack the top 25 (even with his somewhat disappointing MLB performance), right?

6. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:29 PM (#2912120)

I'd be surprised if Utley is that high. He's not having quite as good a year as last and he's going to be 30 next season.

7. Kyle S at work Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:34 PM (#2912125)

Russlan, I'm still imagining him as the MVP candidate he was when I traded for him this year, not the league-average second baseman he's been since. Indulge me...

8. Unleash the Moses Taylor Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:43 PM (#2912128)

Doc Nabbit, what's the ERA+ breakdown of #1-#5 starters again? Because this, about Zambrano, doesn't seem right:

Statistically speaking, he's still a No. 2 starter masquerading as a No. 1,

9. Vegas Watch Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2912131)

Moses, I read it as a reference to the fact that Zambrano's career FIP is half a run higher than his career ERA. Could be wrong though.

10. Silencio Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2912132)

Volquez 42 and Billingsley 41 seems off. Chad has had better peripherals this year, has a much better track record and is a year younger. I think I see a much bigger difference between these pitchers than Nate does.

Also to 4 shouldnt Santana still be in the top ten if not still the top pitcher. Hes still fairly young and I would probably rather have him over any other pitcher for the next 6 years. I love Lincecum as much as the next guy, but he still walks too many guys and isn't efficient enough to be the most valuable pitcher if you ask me.

11. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:53 PM (#2912134)

I should have kept the faith. And let's give the Red Sox credit for sticking with the gameplan. In a lot of organizations, like the Cubs or the Dodgers, Pedroia would have been banished to Triple-A, gotten frustrated, and wound up working at a car dealership.

Not a chance. From everything I know Pedro is way too driven, and maybe psycho, to give up thinking he is anything but a total badass when it comes to baseball.

12. JPWF13 Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2912135)

Statistically speaking, he's still a No. 2 starter masquerading as a No. 1,

2006-08
146 SPs have 200+ IP, by ERA+ Zambrano is 16th on the list - given that there are 30 teams, at least 14 have #1s who are worse than Zambrano.

2006-08 he's 9th in IP, 11th in Ks

This year, among pitchers with 125+ ip, he's 21st in ERA+

What is the definition of a number 1 starter?

13. Chase Utley, America's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2912139)

What is the definition of a number 1 starter?

This

14. Reed's Johnson Posted: August 21, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2912140)

Here's a guy who just really understands how to pitch, mixing in fastball, spitter and slider in perfect ratios.

cheater...

15. Neil Kinnock...Lord Palmerston! (Orinoco) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2912141)

I wouldn't put any pitcher in the top ten.

16. DCA Posted: August 21, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2912142)

The best sentence of the piece: As an aside, the word 'Teixeira' now appears in the Microsoft Word spell-check dictionary because of a complaint I made in the originial version of this column.

17. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: August 21, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2912146)

Not a chance. From everything I know Pedro is way too driven, and maybe psycho, to give up thinking he is anything but a total badass when it comes to baseball.

There's only one Pedro even if he's not PEDRO anymore.

18. Chase Utley, America's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 07:09 PM (#2912151)

There's only one Pedro even if he's not PEDRO anymore.

I think you are severely overestimating Pedro Guerrero's popularity.

19. andrewberg of udub law Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:09 PM (#2912201)

I think you are severely overestimating Pedro Guerrero's popularity.

No, I think he was referring to Pedro Cerrano.

20. HotelSierraFoxtrot Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2912203)

He cites Russell Martin's durability as contributing a big part of his value, but if anything I'd be concerned with his workload. The list of catchers who can consistently catch 145+ games without consequence is not long. Then they went and traded away the guy who might have let him move to third.

21. andrewberg of udub law Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:15 PM (#2912207)

Yeah, but the got a number one starter for him.

22. The Clarence Thomas of BTF (scott) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:22 PM (#2912221)

pedro is looking pretty good tonight, actually.

i'm shocked by how far Beltran fell.

I'm betting that Reyes is somewhere near the top 10. 125 OPS+, good defense, and young at a key position is pretty big. He's not D-Wright, but he's not chopped liver.

23. Dag Nabbit Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:26 PM (#2912224)

Doc Nabbit, what's the ERA+ breakdown of #1-#5 starters again? Because this, about Zambrano, doesn't seem right:

#1 slot: ERA+ around 120, and about 210 IP
#2 slot: ERA+ around 106, and about/just under 200 IP
#3 slot: ERA+ around 96, and about 190 IP
#4 slot: ERA+ around 89, and about/just over 180 IP
#5 slot: ERA+ around 80, and abtou 170 IP

Want some fun? Try to figure how much value Zambrano's bat adds to his overall value. It isn't that difficult - someone figured it for Marquis when he came to the Cubs. Figure what the RC/27 outs a normal NL pitcher puts up (easy to figure w/ b-ref's splits), see how many RC a normal pitcher would've generated in the amount of outs Zambrano has created, compare with the RC he's actually created, and apply to his RA/ER totals to retabulate his ERA & ERA+.

My own hunch is that he's worth an extra 10 runs over a normal pitchers with his bat, especially after today's dinger.

24. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:31 PM (#2912230)

Does Russell Martin hit well enough to play third? He gives you great numbers from the catcher position but if you move him to third he's pretty average.

Its impossible to get a feel for a half-completed list but the name that stands out as too low is Billingsley. A 23 year-old whose pitched 400 innings with a 135 ERA+ and a K per inning is a pretty nice piece to build a team around.

25. davoarid Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:39 PM (#2912242)

Jimmy Rollins is number 33. That is ridonkulously high. I don't know if I'd put him in the top 100.

26. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2008 at 08:55 PM (#2912257)

I don't know if I'd put [Rollins] in the top 100.

!?

27. bookbook Posted: August 21, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#2912296)

You know, I suspect A-Rod still makes the top ten. I know he's old, but he's set to age well. How much future value did Bonds have at his age.

28. Justin Zeth Posted: August 21, 2008 at 09:30 PM (#2912301)

#1 has to be Longoria, right?

29. Justin Zeth Posted: August 21, 2008 at 09:43 PM (#2912311)

Bonds at the same age had much better speed and defense than Rodriguez; he would be expected to age better than Rodriguez.

Not that Rodriguez is a slouch in that department. I don't see any reason to think he won't still be at least productive at 38, 39, 40.

30. flournoy Posted: August 21, 2008 at 10:53 PM (#2912397)

Given that list as numbers 26-50, I have numbers 1-25 containing the following players, off the top of my head:

Albert Pujols
Evan Longoria
Brian McCann
Justin Upton
Ryan Braun
Josh Hamilton
Brandon Webb
Jose Reyes
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Hanley Ramirez
Scott Kazmir
Chase Utley
Cole Hamels
Grady Sizemore
Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Justin Morneau
Joe Mauer
Ryan Howard
Alex Rodriguez
Felix Hernandez
C.C. Sabathia

They are in the order I thought of them, not ranked. It doesn't leave any room for Matt Garza, James Shields, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Jay Bruce, among others. Tough crowd!

EDIT: Looking at some stats, I think I'd dump Ryan Howard off that list and give his spot to one of those four guys I just mentioned.

31. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2008 at 11:11 PM (#2912399)

30,
No way can HanRam not be AT LEAST top 10.. even with his defensive issues. You don't see guys with all around skills like that very often. And he is still 24 and super-toolsy, it is very possible his defense could improve.

I like Longoria alot but I can't see him in the top 3-5, much less #1 overall

32. Chase Utley, America's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#2912401)

Its impossible to get a feel for a half-completed list but the name that stands out as too low is Billingsley. A 23 year-old whose pitched 400 innings with a 135 ERA+ and a K per inning is a pretty nice piece to build a team around.

Totally agreed. Because he's on my fantasy team, I've followed him closely, and I'm deeply impressed. The only under 25 pitcher who I would definitely take over him is Lincecum, with Joba getting some consideration.

I'm not sure why he's not talked about more often, especially given his playing for the Dodgers.

33. davoarid Posted: August 21, 2008 at 11:29 PM (#2912408)

Its impossible to get a feel for a half-completed list but the name that stands out as too low is Billingsley. A 23 year-old whose pitched 400 innings with a 135 ERA+ and a K per inning is a pretty nice piece to build a team around.

He's not quite as valuable as a 30 year old shortstop with a career 98 OPS+, unfortunately.

34. flournoy Posted: August 21, 2008 at 11:31 PM (#2912411)

#31:

Try again

35. MM1f Posted: August 22, 2008 at 12:00 AM (#2912418)

34,
Hm?

36. Kyle S Posted: August 22, 2008 at 12:08 AM (#2912419)

I think A-Rod deserves to be top 10 on my list, btw. Perhaps Reyes too -- he's close, but I think just misses.

37. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 22, 2008 at 12:09 AM (#2912420)

MM1f, your post in #31 seems to quibble with flourney's rankings, but in #30 he says they are an UNranked top 25.

38. MM1f Posted: August 22, 2008 at 12:30 AM (#2912426)

Oh.
D'oh.
My bad.

39. Rob Moore Posted: August 22, 2008 at 01:32 AM (#2912455)

flournoy's list above includes Cain, who Silver already listed in the honorable mention list. I'm also doubtful about Morneau being up there - he wouldn't be ahead of Fielder, would he? I'm thinking Kershaw has to be up there - holding his own at 20 with huge upside. I can't imagine that he would list Price in the HM and not mention Kershaw anywhere.

40. Daunte Vicknabb- 2004 NFL MVP Posted: August 22, 2008 at 02:15 AM (#2912461)

Guy with outside shot: Adrian Gonzalez?

He's not Fielder with the stick or age-wise, but he should age better and is a very good defensive 1B, Pujols-lite.

Kershaw almost certainly makes it in, but I'd not put him above Billingsley at this stage.

My top 5 guess: Pujols, Wright, Grady, A-Rod, Hanley. Hanley's defense takes him down a peg. It's kinda sad to think that V-Mart was (I believe) one of the top 2 catchers on the list last year and now he doesn't even make the honorable mention.

41. Eraser-X is dominating this site! Posted: August 22, 2008 at 03:30 AM (#2912473)

No Danks or Quentin?

42. In the Disney betting pool, Roy Oswalt Posted: August 22, 2008 at 07:27 AM (#2912487)

There's 1 more minor leaguer coming, right? Wasn't that mentioned in the Wieters bit?

43. bfan Posted: August 22, 2008 at 08:09 AM (#2912496)

It said Weiters was the only minor leaguer. Who was the last this much of a can't miss guy in the minors? Teixera? I understand every year has to have someone ranked as the #1 prospect, but this guy just rated Weiters ahead of young superstars in MLB with established levels of performance.

44. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: August 22, 2008 at 08:15 AM (#2912499)

No Danks or Quentin?

They've been part of a predictably bad White Sox team that will win only 78 games. That will be enough to top Minnesota (which will win only 73 games), but not enough to catch those two juggernauts, Cleveland (92 wins) and Detroit (90 wins).

Or so PECOTA told me before the season started.

45. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 22, 2008 at 08:18 AM (#2912500)

This is a PECOTA list. Players who came out of relative mediocrity to put up superstar numbers over 3/4 of a season aren't going to make a list compiled by bringing together 3+ years of data. Danks and Quentin may well be better than some guys on this list, but PECOTA is not a tool that's going to be able to tell you that.

EDIT: this is the same reason I'd be shocked if Josh Hamilton made the top 25.

46. chris p Posted: August 22, 2008 at 08:38 AM (#2912505)

EDIT: this is the same reason I'd be shocked if Josh Hamilton made the top 25.

i bet you a million dollars he does.

47. BTF's left-wing cheering section (formerly_dp) Posted: August 22, 2008 at 08:42 AM (#2912507)

this is the same reason I'd be shocked if Josh Hamilton made the top 25.

Hamilton will be top 25. Implied by the comment on Volquez I think. They did say they'll weigh scouting along with stats, and Hamilton as a former can't-miss guy passes in that regard. IIRC, BPro has said there's no model with which to predict Hamilton's development. My guess is 18-25, just b/c he's an OF with a lowish walk rate.

48. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 22, 2008 at 09:18 AM (#2912532)

Oh, missed that. And I posted the article. word up

49. JJ1986 Posted: August 22, 2008 at 09:27 AM (#2912537)

Not only is Carlos Zambrano clearly a #1 starter, but the value he adds with the bat makes him a top 5 pitcher in baseball. To put him behind Volquez and Harden is silly.

50. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 22, 2008 at 09:39 AM (#2912543)

Hamilton has put up good numbers when he wore a uniform. His problem was not getting on the field. His projections are probably good, particularly since so much weight will be given to last year and this year since he doesn't have much other history.

I think Quentin makes it. He is huge this year and has only last year's struggles on his resume; he excelled in the minors and even the MLB before that.

51. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 22, 2008 at 09:57 AM (#2912560)

JJ Hardy is 25 years old, plays solid defense, has some pop, draws some walks and over the last two seasons has stayed in the lineup and is arguably the number 3 SS in in the NL after Hanley and Jose.

As much as I enjoy watching Prince hit his defense has regressed, his baserunning is nonexistent and if he's not slugging over .550 his actual value really isn't what folks think.

52. Zuvella! Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:10 AM (#2912575)

Guy with outside shot: Adrian Gonzalez?

He's not Fielder with the stick or age-wise, but he should age better and is a very good defensive 1B, Pujols-lite.

Good call. Stick-wise--at least this year--he's probably better than Prince since his numbers are depressed by PETCO quite a bit. He's a very underrated player.

53. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:14 AM (#2912578)

That's something I often wonder: How many millions of dollars of earnings over a player's career are essentially determined by the player's luck with what team drafts him (or acquires him while he's still in the minors) and what park they play in? If Adrian Gonzalez had been acquired by the Brewers and Prince Fielder by the Padres, what would their outlooks in the general press (and among less bright baseball front offices) be like, and what kind of free agent contracts would they get? It seems likely Gonzalez would be regarded as a superstar and Fielder something only slightly more than Jack Cust, under those circumstances. And if Gonzlaez had stayed with the Rangers... well...

54. Kyle S at work Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:15 AM (#2912579)

So who have we got for the top 25?

Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
David Wright
Grady Sizemore
Chase Utley
Tim Lincecum
Evan Longoria
Ryan Braun
Brandon Webb
Cole Hamels
Alex Rodriguez
Josh Hamilton
Jose Reyes
Miguel Cabrera
Brian McCann
Jake Peavy
Joe Mauer
CC Sabathia
Jay Bruce
Johan Santana
Scott Kazmir
Carlos Quentin (?)
Ian Kinsler (?)
Justin Upton (?)
David Ortiz (?)

Pretty confident about the first 22, less so about the last four. I think Quentin makes it. Not sure about the other three.

55. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:18 AM (#2912583)

No way in hell Ortiz is on the list. He could be done.

56. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:19 AM (#2912585)

David Ortiz (?)

I'm pretty sure a 32 year old DH who spent half the season being injured isn't going to make the list, even if he's been tearing the cover of the ball over the last month. IIRC, Silver even mentioned that he got burned by Ortiz this year in the article.

57. Danny Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:20 AM (#2912587)

No Danks or Quentin?

They've been part of a predictably bad White Sox team that will win only 78 games. That will be enough to top Minnesota (which will win only 73 games), but not enough to catch those two juggernauts, Cleveland (92 wins) and Detroit (90 wins).

Or so PECOTA told me before the season started.

Awww, it reminds me of that Tigers fan who complained about Chris Shelton not making this list a couple years ago.

58. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#2912592)

To qualify my 'he could be done' comment, any significant injury to a guy of Ortiz' dimensions and Ortiz' age is a big worry. Big huge guys have a nasty habit of falling into the bottomless abyss without warning in their early-mid 30s.

59. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:27 AM (#2912595)

Here is a copy on the BPro site with larger capsules on the honorable mention:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7975

60. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:29 AM (#2912597)

JJ Hardy is 25 years old, plays solid defense, has some pop, draws some walks and over the last two seasons has stayed in the lineup and is arguably the number 3 SS in in the NL after Hanley and Jose.

Will Hardy be traded this offseason to make way for Escobar? If so, what will the Brewers want back? Pitching prospects?

61. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:31 AM (#2912599)

Move him to second base and move Weeks to the bench until he gets too expensive, would be my play. The Brewers could use some strong up-the-middle defense to compensate for their somewhat problematic defense at the corners.

(EDIT: Actually, Ryan Braun is rating pretty well in LF, average to above average.)

62. flournoy Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:31 AM (#2912601)

Okay, so I'll punt Howard, Cain (I didn't see any honorable mention section, but okay), and Morneau off my list. In their places, I'll add Jay Bruce, Carlos Quentin (totally forgot about him) and one of the following: Danks/Shields/Garza/Matsuzaka. I don't know enough about any of them to choose.

EDIT: Forgot Kershaw again. Boot that last four-man tossup and include Kershaw instead.

63. Zuvella! Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:35 AM (#2912606)

Okay, so I'll punt Howard, Cain (I didn't see any honorable mention section, but okay), and Morneau off my list. In their places, I'll add Jay Bruce, Carlos Quentin (totally forgot about him) and one of the following: Danks/Shields/Garza/Matsuzaka. I don't know enough about any of them to choose.

I don't know about Dice-K. I think there are two starters on his staff I'd rather build around over him: Beckett and Lester.

64. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:37 AM (#2912607)

So who's going to be his highest-ranked pitcher? I'm figuring Tim Lincecum, but I could fathom Brandon Webb.

65. Zuvella! Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:38 AM (#2912610)

So who's going to be his highest-ranked pitcher? I'm figuring Tim Lincecum, but I could fathom Brandon Webb.

My vote would go to Lincecum. He's just an insane talent.

66. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:42 AM (#2912612)

He's the best pitcher in baseball, is what he is.

67. flournoy Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:43 AM (#2912614)

Tough choice. I might lean towards Webb for his track record, but it's hard to go wrong with either.

68. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:44 AM (#2912615)

He's the best pitcher in baseball, is what he is.

As long as you don't count Brandon Webb as a pitcher.

69. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:44 AM (#2912616)

Well, Peralta is in the Honorable Mention and still no JJ so he must be showing up in the next list. Otherwise, I don't understand.

This isn't homerism. JP and JJ are almost the same player and JJ is a year younger. How can you have one and not the other?

As for Escobar, Justin has it correct. Weeks is gone. The team leadership was hoping that the Durham trade would jab Rickie to give a good push toward the finish while improving his trade value. Hasn't really happened though Rickie has played a BIT better in August. At the plate anyway. In the second half alone he has blown a half dozen double plays.

Weeks is frustrating because over the course of his career he scores 114 runs per 600 at bats. He has a career OBP of .351. His career stolen base percentage is 85.2.

Yet his defense is still bad, worse yet he chokes in the field late in the game and he just routinely makes dumb decisions on the basepaths and in the field.

He's a poor man's infield version of Lonnie Smith.

70. DKDC Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:44 AM (#2912617)

Part 2

25. Justin Upton, RF, Diamondbacks, Age 20 (HM)
24. Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners, Age 22 (15)
23. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds, Age 21 (--)
22. Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox, Age 28 (--)
21. Josh Hamilton, CF, Rangers, Age 27 (--)
20. Cole Hamels, P, Phillies, Age 24 (29)
19. Scott Kazmir, P, Rays, Age 24 (33)
18. Brandon Webb, P, Diamondbacks, Age 29 (16)
17. Ryan Braun, LF, Brewers, Age 24 (--)
16. Curtis Granderson, CF, Tigers, Age 27 (HM)
15. Tim Lincecum, P, Giants, Age 24 (41)
14. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers, Age 25 (4)
13. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies, Age 29 (22)
12. Jake Peavy, P, Padres, Age 27 (13)
11. Brian McCann, C, Braves, Age 24 (9)
10. Johan Santana, P, Mets, Age 29 (3)
9. CC Sabathia, P, Brewers, Age 27 (17)
8. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees, Age 32 (10)
7. Joe Mauer, C, Twins, Age 25 (2)
6. Jose Reyes, SS, Mets, Age 25 (7)
5. Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians, Age 25 (5)
4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays, Age 22 (HM)
3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals, Age 28 (1)
2. David Wright, 3B, Mets, Age 25 (8)
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins, Age 24 (6)

71. JJ1986 Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:45 AM (#2912619)

My stab at the 25:

Brian McCann
Joe Mauer
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Chase Utley
Robinson Cano
David Wright
Evan Longoria
Ryan Braun
Alex Rodriguez
Jose Reyes
Hanley Ramirez
Troy Tulowitzki
Grady Sizemore
Jay Bruce
Josh Hamilton
Justin Upton
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb
Tim Lincecum
Cole Hamels
Jon Lester
Jake Peavy
CC Sabathia
Scott Kazmir

I don't think they like Howard very much. I can't see Morneau on without Howard. Both Tulowitzki and Cano are having terrible years, but they seem like they types who would profile well.

72. Zuvella! Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:47 AM (#2912621)

The reason why I'd pick Lincecum over Webb is because of the two I could imagine only Lincecum having a Pedro-like peak. He seems to me to be one of those unique talents (everything he does is different) that could rise above his peers.

73. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:49 AM (#2912623)

And his top five pitchers are Sabathia, Santana, Peavy, Lincecum, Webb, in that order. Reasonable, I guess, but I don't buy the 'I want to see more health before I'll rate him higher' argument on Lincecum. I'll take the arm with less mileage on it.

74. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:49 AM (#2912624)

I'm surprised Quentin isn't on the list at all. I guess I would've been surprised about top 25, but not even honorable mention is interesting.

75. Neil Kinnock...Lord Palmerston! (Orinoco) Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:56 AM (#2912631)

Three Mets in the top ten?

Wright over Albert?

76. Ryan Jones Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:56 AM (#2912632)

The reason why I'd pick Lincecum over Webb is because of the two I could imagine only Lincecum having a Pedro-like peak. He seems to me to be one of those unique talents (everything he does is different) that could rise above his peers.

77. Conor Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:57 AM (#2912634)

Not bad, Mets have 3 of the top 10.

78. Ryan Jones Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:58 AM (#2912636)

Wright over Albert?

One is 3 years younger, plays 3B, and doesn't have a partially torn ligament in his elbow (as well as the extended list of injuries which Pujols has mostly managed to play through). It's a decision I can agree with, and I'm definitely not a Mets (or Wright) fan.

79. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:00 AM (#2912639)

Our only nitpick with Sizemore is that he probably did not deserve his Gold Glove in 2007.

They have got to stop using FRAA.

Wright over Albert?

FRAA has Wright as a superlative defensive 3rd baseman.

80. Holliday in Alameda (jonathan) Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:05 AM (#2912642)

I'm seconding the Lincecum vote. Dude is awesome.

81. Mister High Standards Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:06 AM (#2912643)

I'm suprised you guys aren't going insane over the beckett placement. All I've been reading over the last few weeks is that he isnt' a number 1 starter or even very good. Just plain run of the mill good.

82. Justin Zeth Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:09 AM (#2912646)

Yeah, BPro is really stubborn about sticking to FRAA, even when it leads to weird conclusions like "Ian Kinsler is a good glove at second base".

83. DKDC Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:10 AM (#2912648)

I'm suprised you guys aren't going insane over the beckett placement.

There's not really much to talk about. Beckett is about 50 spots to high. He belongs in the HM category.

84. BTF's left-wing cheering section (formerly_dp) Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:11 AM (#2912650)

and I'm definitely not a...Wright) fan.

For all of these years, I had Ryan confused with someone who likes baseball.

:>

85. Mister High Standards Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:13 AM (#2912652)

There's not really much to talk about. Beckett is about 50 spots to high. He belongs in the HM category.

Or your opinion of him is too low, and he is about right.

86. Ryan Jones Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:14 AM (#2912655)

For all of these years, I had Ryan confused with someone who likes baseball.

Hey! I like baseball. I just don't like what the Mets play.

87. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:15 AM (#2912657)

I'm suprised you guys aren't going insane over the beckett placement.

There are lots of players with one good year on the list.

88. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:15 AM (#2912659)

Where are Sean Gallagher and Carlos Gonzalez? The mind boggles.

89. kevin Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:16 AM (#2912660)

No. 40. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox, Age 25 (--)

For years, ~~PECOTA~~ kevin had been touting Pedroia, while ~~scouts~~ the rest of BTF, particularly Yankee fans, would not take him seriously. When Pedroia started out his major league career hitting .182 in April 2007, I Yankee fans thought I they could see exactly what those scouts were seeing -- with his short stature and his uppercut swing, he looked like a Little Leaguer trying to hit major league pitching. I They promptly traded him in my their roto league(s). For ~~Yuniesky Betancourt~~ Robinson Cano.

I should have kept the faith. And let's give ~~the Red Sox~~ kevin credit for sticking with ~~the gameplan~~ his original evaluation. In a lot of organizations, like the Cubs or the Dodgers or Yankees, Pedroia would have been banished to Triple-A instead of Cano, gotten frustrated, and wound up working at a car dealership.

Fixed.

90. kevin Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:21 AM (#2912666)

No way can HanRam not be AT LEAST top 10.. even with his defensive issues. You don't see guys with all around skills like that very often. And he is still 24 and super-toolsy, it is very possible his defense could improve.

Well, it hasn't so far and he isn't going to get any quicker or throw any harder than now.

91. dahlian Kirby, children's author extraordinaire. Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:22 AM (#2912668)

This makes sense to me. As good as Webb is, he's basically an NL version of Roy Halliday (which is not at all meant to be an insult). Essentially, he's the sort of guy who could spend a decade challenging for the title of best pitcher in the league every season without ever putting together the sort of transcendent season associated with the true inner circle hall of famer - Maddox, Clemens, Pedro, Randy and so on.

Webb has the higher career ERA+ than every one of Santana, Sabathia, Peavy and Lincecum. His career ERA+ is higher than Sabathia's best season. I can understand putting Santana and Lincecum ahead of Webb, but I think it's ridiculous to rank Sabathia and Peavy ahead of Webb. You are greatly underestimating how dominant Webb can be when you say that he'll never put together that "transcendent" season. Sabathia and Peavy have already put together their transcendent seasons and they'd just be another drop in the bucket of Webb's career.

92. Zuvella! Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:23 AM (#2912669)

I think Lester should be mentioned, at the very least. Or is he mentioned and I'm not seeing it?

93. Kyle S at work Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:28 AM (#2912680)

I think Beckett is too high also, but not HM (maybe 35 or so). I think Ortiz is too low. This guy did hit .330/.420/.600 in the way distant past known as last year.

Actually, here's a list:

TOO HIGH (at least 5 spots)
Evan Longoria
Joe Mauer
CC Sabathia
Curtis Granderson
Josh Beckett
Justin Upton

TOO LOW (at least 5 spots)
Albert Pujols (should be -2nd)
Brandon Webb
Ryan Braun
Tim Lincecum

But it's a good list. And I'm sure in a year I'll look back at my modifications and chortle at how stupid I was.

94. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:32 AM (#2912684)

I am not being Hardy's advocate so much as employing common sense. Young, productive, stays in the lineup. What am I missing here?

And Corey Hart is 25 and is the best rf in the NL.

Just asking. If someone can enlighten me I would be grateful.

95. Conor Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:33 AM (#2912685)

Yeah, FRAA is poor. I remember last year reading Reyes was a bad glove at SS and Wright a great one. (Maybe they were just looking a year ahead.)

I will say, Wright has improved at D.

96. PreservedFish Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:39 AM (#2912690)

I am not being Hardy's advocate so much as employing common sense. Young, productive, stays in the lineup. What am I missing here?

He isn't that good.

97. Zuvella! Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:39 AM (#2912691)

Yeah, Corey Hart and Hardy are both oversights. Hart is just a great all-around player with great tools. There is a subjective aspect to this, so maybe Silver's scouting eye doesn't like the two?

98. Ryan Jones Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#2912694)

I can understand putting Santana and Lincecum ahead of Webb, but I think it's ridiculous to rank Sabathia and Peavy ahead of Webb. You are greatly underestimating how dominant Webb can be when you say that he'll never put together that "transcendent" season. Sabathia and Peavy have already put together their transcendent seasons and they'd just be another drop in the bucket of Webb's career.

I never discussed the relative ranking of Peavy and Sabathia, only Webb and Lincecum. If you want my opinion, I would have also put him ahead of Peavy, and about even with Sabathia (who is 2 years younger, and has thrown 400 more MLB innings than Webb, which also matters when projecting ahead).

With respect to Webb, what would you say are the odds that his performance level suddenly shifts, and he throws together a full season (or string of seasons) with ERA+ of 200 or greater, or a string of 300+ K seasons? Because that's what I was talking about when I referenced the inner circle of Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Johnson.

Trust me when I say I'm not underrating Webb. Unless, of course, you think the statement "he's the sort of guy who could spend a decade challenging for the title of best pitcher in the league every season" is somehow an insult. Webb is a great pitcher, and will likely end his career under serious consideration for the Hall of Fame, and that's pretty high praise in itself.

99. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#2912695)

TOO HIGH (at least 5 spots)

Curtis Granderson

What? Why? Guys who slug > .500 with GG defence in Centre are pretty hard to find. His skill set is a good bet to age well.

Sabathia, Reyes, Mauer too high, Webb and Cabrera too low. I know Verlander is having a poor year, but I think he should be in the bottom 25 somewhere. I mean, what has Felix Hernandez really done since that one September?

I agree that it's a good list overall.

100. Ryan Jones Posted: August 22, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#2912698)

What? Why?

Because conventional wisdom was that last year was his peak season, and that his lefty/righty splits would prevent him from staying at an elite level going forward.

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