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Monday, January 14, 2008

skyking162: Mike Cameron, Savior

Sky seeks to bring the live image of his living presence to the homebound, the workplace, remote areas around the world…and even Milwaukee!

If the Brewers hadn’t signed Cameron, they’d be batting Gabe Gross, a career .245/.343/.410 hitter. If Cameron repeats his 2007 numbers, he’s similar to Gross offensively. If he hits like 2006, he’s 15 runs better.

Including both offense and defense, the Brewers are between 4.0 and 5.5 wins better with Mike Cameron than without him. At $4 million per win, that’s worth between $16 and $22 million on the free agent market, all for only $7 million. We can’t give all that credit to Cameron (the Brewers technically could have moved Hall and Braun without signing Cameron), but acquiring a good center fielder forces the issue. It’s a great signing and the Brewers are now back to competing with the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.

(By the way, you’ve got to love that a guy who’s admitted to playing baseball drunk is now a member of the Brewers.)

Repoz Posted: January 14, 2008 at 11:58 AM | 24 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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1. Alex_Lewis Posted: January 14, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2667789)

Cameron graduated from the Keon Clark school of athletics, eh?

It's seems amazing to me that anyone can catch a flyball sober let alone drunk...

2. A One-Shoed Craig K Posted: January 14, 2008 at 04:00 PM (#2667793)

It's seems amazing to me that anyone can catch a flyball sober let alone drunk...

I couldn't do it.

3. Alex_Lewis Posted: January 14, 2008 at 04:02 PM (#2667798)

I could briefly interupt its voyage back to the ground with my face. That would be about the extent of it.

4. jwb Posted: January 14, 2008 at 04:46 PM (#2667839)

You've never played softball with beer? It's the hitting that is the hard part.

5. Brian

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2667898)

Is this official? Will Braun and Hall be making these moves according to this article? I haven't seen anything but I haven't been to BTF for a few days.

6. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: January 14, 2008 at 06:00 PM (#2667900)

Is this official? Will Braun and Hall be making these moves according to this article? I haven't seen anything but I haven't been to BTF for a few days.

Nothing's official, but this seems like the most likely scenario. There's still a possibility that the Brewers deal Hall and pick up another third baseman. Braun to LF seems very very likely.

7. Alex_Lewis Posted: January 14, 2008 at 06:23 PM (#2667910)

Noah Lowry for Bill Hall!! Make it happen, Sabes.

8. Brian

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 06:52 PM (#2667948)

Interesting. I guess it's a good thing Braun isn't in Minnesote. Kelly/Gardenhire would insist that Braun spend 2-3 months AAA to learn to play LF.

9. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 14, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2667964)

Nothing's official, but this seems like the most likely scenario. There's still a possibility that the Brewers deal Hall and pick up another third baseman. Braun to LF seems very very likely.

The AP is reporting Cameron at $7 million. I believe the Braun to LF and Hall to 3B is also official.

10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2008 at 07:10 PM (#2667970)

You've never played softball with beer? It's the hitting that is the hard part.

You should have your children taken away.

11. Al Kaline Trio Posted: January 14, 2008 at 07:15 PM (#2667974)

4.0 and 5.5 wins better with Mike Cameron than without him

In 162 - 25 games? Really?

12. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: January 14, 2008 at 07:31 PM (#2667997)

In 162 - 25 games? Really?

Did you read the piece? If you take into account how bad Braun was at 3B and how bad Hall was in CF, this normally mundane signing has a huge potential effect. The RLYW DM sims had the Brewers with a losing record, and the most likely reason was the inferior defense the Brewers had.

13. SkyKing162 Posted: January 14, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2668004)

In 162 - 25 games? Really?

It's fair to bump down the estimate by 15% for the missed games. Still a big move, adding Cameron and optimizing the lineup in the field.

14. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 07:47 PM (#2668006)

Noah Lowry for Bill Hall!! Make it happen, Sabes.

Man, if Sabean doesn't flip Lowry this offseason for prospects or a young postion player, then I think Giants fans should start a class action suit against him. Lowry's value will never be higher than it is now and the Giants have plenty of interesting arms so they ought to see what some of them can do. There will never be a better time to trade Lowry than now.

15. Al Kaline Trio Posted: January 14, 2008 at 07:54 PM (#2668014)

It just seemed like a pretty huge difference. Looks like I underestimated how bad Braun really was at third, moving him to LF is 3 wins right away since the defense would be improved by about 30 runs with the move. Cameron improving the team by 1 to 2.5 wins seems about right.

So what do the Brewers do while Cameron is suspended?

16. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: January 14, 2008 at 08:03 PM (#2668023)

Gross and Gwynn will split time there for the first 25 games. Cameron will be allowed to go through ST with the Brewers, will stay for some type of extended ST and will be allowed to play 5 minor league games before joining the team on the 29th for a 3 game series against the Cubs.

17. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2668024)

I believe the Braun to LF and Hall to 3B is also official.

Correct.

As for who will play center don't discount Corey Hart getting some time. Only Gwynn could be considered average or above defensively but for 25 games it will do. All of them have played center so it won't be foreign territory.

18. Brian

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2668118)

Harveys, what's your take on this defensive shuffling?

19. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:27 PM (#2668147)

Brian:

Well, I do believe Braun can be a decent defensive third baseman. And I also know how changing positions can affect offense. It is entirely possible that Braun starts the season in a horrible funk which isn't some regression to the mean but his distraction at playing a new position.

That being said:

--the defense last year was poor
--Cameron, even at this age, is a fine defensive player
--Hall was a solid defensive third baseman albeit in limited time
--the decision, like most decisions that have a greater chance of succeeding, is made during the offseason versus on the fly during the season
--it puts all the Brewers best players on the field
--Hall, alas, is accustomed to being moved

I think Bill will handle it fine. Braun is the wild card. What I hope is the Albert Pujols reaction, "Oh, here? Fine." And keeps on crushing the ball.

20. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2668157)

If Braun was able to hit despite his defensive frustration in 2007, I have no dout that he will hit throughout the position shift in 2008.

21. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:47 PM (#2668172)

Pops:

But Ryan has always thought of himself as a third baseman. As amusing as this may seem, he LIKES playing third base.

And whether because he is young, mentally challenged, or obtuse there were no signs that his defensive issues caused him any undue frustration.

So I just don't know......................

22. Brian

Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:50 PM (#2668174)

Thanks Harvey. I watched a lot of Braun on the extra innings package and I agree there is no reason Braun couldn't become a decent 3B. He has a good arm but often was betrayed more by his feet in setting up to throw. He was decent on grounders and showed good range to his left but sucked on medium speed grounders when he had too much time to think. I'm sure he'll adapt to LF; good speed, good athleticism and a good arm should make him at least passable.

23. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2668181)

It was really strange to watch him play defense last season. I thought it was obvious that his errors were getting to him and he was rushing himself all over the place. Yet, he never seemed too frustrated to concentrate at the plate.

Heck, it has the added plus of being easier on his health. Not that Braun is fat by any means but it's got to be easier on the knees for a big guy to be in the outfield and if he's 200 lbs. then I'm a jockey.

24. Brian

Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:24 AM (#2668455)

I didn't get the impression he was that big but I haven't seen him in person. He certainly runs like he's not too heavy. At 6'2" 200 pounds sounds about right.

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skyking162: Mike Cameron, Savior

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