Skyking 162: Potential Mistake: Signing Mike Lowell

Or as I overheard in the bar the other night..."Mike Lowell would have lesser than zero home runs at Yankee Stadium”

3 - Lowell will be 34 years old during the 2008 season. Every free agent signing is a risk, but older players carry more risk. I’m worried about a small letdown in 2008, and then there’s 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011 to worry about, too. The list of 37 year old players who hit like their 33 year old selves is a short one. Again, it’s perfectly possible for Lowell to maintain his current pace, but it’s not something to count on or pay for.

4 - Fielding was not actually a strength of Lowell’s this past season and is a skill that clearly declines with age. Two fielding systems based on separate sets of fielding data peg him around average for a third baseman: one is at -6 runs and one is at +5 runs. UZR, the best publicly available fielding measure, puts him at -6, +9, +1, +20, and -7 runs from 2003 through the first half of 2007. You can’t be more solidly average defensively than an average-fielding third baseman.