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Thursday, November 20, 2008

SNY: Berg: Prices could drop on free-agent relievers with time

Thumbing through his handy Tesla patents booklet...the latest Wireless Calling from Berg.

It’s a buyer’s market. Plenty of teams need closers, but none of them has the cash the Mets do. Smart money says they’ll end up with K-Rod or Fuentes, but if they’re smart with their money, they shouldn’t shell it out anytime soon.

Sports agents are shrewd. They’ll do whatever they can to see that their clients get the most money possible. No reasonable agent would allow the closer he represents to sign anywhere without giving the Mets the chance to beat the offer, so it behooves the team to lay back for a while and wait to see if the prices start dropping.

Because though having an offseason plan is important for a GM, it’s not as important as the ability to read the ebb and flow of the free-agent and trade markets and adjust the plan accordingly. Last season, Kyle Lohse slipped through the cracks and the Cardinals were able to scoop him up on the cheap.

None of the best free-agent closers will plummet in price the way Lohse did, but in a struggling economy and without a ton of teams eager to spend the type of green K-Rod and Fuentes are looking for, the Mets could land a relative bargain if they play their cards right.

Repoz Posted: November 20, 2008 at 09:15 AM | 15 comment(s)
Related News: General, Business, NY Mets

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1. Sam M. Posted: November 20, 2008 at 10:19 AM (#3012942)

Of course, if the price drops too far, then the optimal (if risky) strategy for Fuentes and K-Rod would be to take a a one-year contract for bigger bucks and hit the market again next year, when they can reasonably hope/expect different teams (read: big market teams besides the Mets) might be in the running for a closer. So the Mets can't play it TOO cute here and expect it to be in their interest to sign a cut-rate deal.

2. TedBerg Posted: November 20, 2008 at 10:58 AM (#3012967)

You're probably right, but theoretically the one-year deal would give the Mets time to work out an extension, as the Cardinals did with Lohse. Granted, Lohse ended up getting about what he was asking for in the first place, so maybe that's a bad example.

Plus -- assuming that most long-term deals for closers are short-sighted -- maybe the one-year deal buys the Mets time to develop someone younger to assume the role in 2010, though it doesn't seem like there are a lot of promising options in the system right now.

3. Sam M. Posted: November 20, 2008 at 11:04 AM (#3012972)

You're probably right, but theoretically the one-year deal would give the Mets time to work out an extension, as the Cardinals did with Lohse.

Well, I'm assuming a much worse case scenario: that the one-year deal isn't even with the Mets. It might be, of course, but there's no reason to suppose it would necessarily be. Once the agent and player involved decide to go that route, a lot of teams might come into the picture who aren't in it for a multi-year contract, since a one-year commitment (even for as much as $12-14M) isn't nearly as daunting as a $35-$40M deal.

Anyway, I definitely agree the market will come to the Mets for either Fuentes or K-Rod. My only caveat is that there is a limit to how far they can push it before they might game themselves out of a closer.

4. TedBerg Posted: November 20, 2008 at 11:59 AM (#3013025)

Well, I'm assuming a much worse case scenario: that the one-year deal isn't even with the Mets.

Duh. Good call. And we're on the same page here.

5. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#3013075)

Look, it is a fool's errand to ever disagree with Toby Hyde. But the idea that Kerry Wood is somehow just as viable an option as K-Rod or Fuentes just doesn't fly with me.
Statistically, the trend lines for K-Rod aren't fantastic, it's true. But the fact that Kerry Wood has one season with more than 24.3 IP in the last three is so much more worrisome to me.
Saying all pitchers get hurt is like saying that all cars need tune-ups, so let's bypass the Lexus for the high-performing Yugo.

6. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#3013076)

Okay, double post. Time to install the new router.

7. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#3013085)

Also worth adding on Wood- he had a very similar FB rate in both 2005 and 2008, the last two seasons out of four he pitched more than 24.3 innings. In 2008? 3 HR. In 2005? 14 HR.

8. TedBerg Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:19 PM (#3013110)

Look, it is a fool's errand to ever disagree with Toby Hyde. But the idea that Kerry Wood is somehow just as viable an option as K-Rod or Fuentes just doesn't fly with me.

I'm more or less with you, though I guess I should've spent a little more time explaining why in the column. I dismissed the possibility mostly because I just don't think it'll happen. As you suggest, just too much risk.

9. The District Attorney Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:30 PM (#3013120)

Whither Huston Street? I'm not quite sure what the Mets have to trade that the Rocks would want, but trading for a young guy with a lifetime .274 OBP against sounds a lot better to me than either Wood/Hoffman whom you can't be entirely sure will make it through the season, or K-Rod/Fuentes who are ungodly expensive.

10. John Northey Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:40 PM (#3013133)

C'mon Mets, make the Jays an offer they cannot refuse for BJ Ryan - just $10 mil a year for 2009/2010. For those who don't know the Jays have a crazy deep bullpen and no need for a $10 million closer (if they ever really did need him).

11. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#3013134)

high-performing Yugo.

Wood is more like an MG or an old Jag -- a great ride on the 10 days a year it's not in the garage.

But comparing Wood to a Yugo? Blasphemy.

Small samples and all, but since becoming a reliever -- 90.2 IP, 3 HR, 31 BB, 108 K. Like a lot of guys, relieving seems a hell of a lot easier for Wood (in terms of performance that is). I think those numbers are basically for real -- the true HR rate probably isn't that low. So, in terms of talent, Wood is one of the best relievers out there.

12. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:08 PM (#3013156)

Walt Davis is absolutely correct. Some people inside baseball might claim that starting involves different stresses on the arm, and different risks, than relieving, much as we might be convinced that if someone is "injury prone" he is going to be "injury prone" no matter what physical activities he actually engages in.

In fact, check out this thread! Especially post 18! Although my estimate of 72 innings for Wood this year was off by 9%, Ray DiPerna and AROM were COMPLETELY WRONG AH HAH AH HA HA HA

13. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:12 PM (#3013161)

Also from that thread:

13. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: March 18, 2008 at 10:03 AM (#2714626)
Letting Wood close and then leave as a Type A would be brilliant. And it'd keep Marmol's salary down in 2010, to boot. Could the Cubs be evil geniuses?

Looks like the Cubs are evil geniuses.

14. Sam M. Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:46 PM (#3013194)

Well, now this is amusing . . . Aaron Heilman wants starting role with Mets or a trade

Heilman's agent makes the curious claim, "The most success he's ever had as a pitcher has been as a starting pitcher."

Which I suppose is true if we're counting his time at Notre Dame. The major leagues, OTOH . . . not so much. As the article points out, "Heilman made 25 starts for the Mets between 2003 and '05. He went 5-13 with a 5.93 ERA." Even with his horrible 2008 counted in, Heilman has been a lot better than that as a reliever.

The guy has value. It'll be very interesting to see what Omar can and does get for him.

15. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 04:04 PM (#3013289)

Small samples and all, but since becoming a reliever -- 90.2 IP, 3 HR, 31 BB, 108 K. Like a lot of guys, relieving seems a hell of a lot easier for Wood (in terms of performance that is). I think those numbers are basically for real -- the true HR rate probably isn't that low. So, in terms of talent, Wood is one of the best relievers out there.

I agree with this. MG is a better comp. The issue is I don't think you'll ever see him not in a small sample size. I hope I'm wrong- I love watching him pitch.

The guy has value. It'll be very interesting to see what Omar can and does get for him.

Assuming you can plug the bullpen elsewhere, I'd love to see him in the fifth starter mix in the spring. If he succeeds, he gives Niese at least a full year at AAA, and with the three pitches he throws now, I'd love to see how he translates with a healthy knee.

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SNY: Berg: Prices could drop on free-agent relievers with time

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